Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

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512-bit bus in a console is very unlikely...

Scorpio has a 384-bit bus w/ plain GDDR5 while PS4, Xbox One and PS4 Pro all have a 256-bit bus.

I don't think a 256-bit or even 384-bit bus with GDDR6 will offer enough of a leap in mem bandwidth for PS5.
However it would be fine for a further upgraded PS4 beyond the Pro.

With those options, Sony ought to to wait til 2020 and hopefully get HBM3 at cheaper prices than HBM2 is or will be.
 
I thought it was because this is something that wouldn't shrink. The board path width you choose you are essentially stuck with. So it hurts the cost reduction on the board. Something I would think HBMx would have a potential advantage with.
 
If AMD can release Vega using 16GB of hbm this year, shouldn't we expect 32GB of hbm as easily available in 2019 ?

But, at what price??
They´re still relegating HBM to the top tier cards, and the professional market.

If the upcoming HBCache works as advertised and is transparent to devs, I wouldn´t rule out just 4/8GB of HBM and plenty of regular DDR4.
 
If AMD can release Vega using 16GB of hbm this year, shouldn't we expect 32GB of hbm as easily available in 2019 ?

At a cost that fits readily into a $400-$500 console? I doubt it. Samsung is talking about low cost mainstream HBM solution but with bandwidths around 200 GBps.
 
It's somewhat getting back to the argument of DDR3 + high bandwidth memory vs GDDR5, and we all saw how that played out.

My argument was that if they do choose HBM, they wouldn't fool around with a secondary bus at all and just keep things streamlined and simple.

I'd start wondering more about GDDR6 tbh. There's also a question of GPU architecture improvements that attempt to mitigate external bandwidth consumption (local caches).

I think your argument makes total sense when it comes to reasonable amounts of memory. But with people throwing out number like 32 GBs of gDDR5/6, I think AMD, MS and Sony would look towards DDR3/4 to reduce costs at those levels.

It's the console space...MANN!!! Manufacturers have a tendency to throw simplicity out the window and get cute when it comes to memory cost. See XBO, PS3, 360 and WiiU.
 
From ps2 to ps3 ~ 14 x ram+vram
From ps3 to ps4 ~ 16 x ram+vram
From ps4 to ps5 ~ 14 - 15 x ram+vram?
= ~128 Gigs

Maybe not if it comes out sooner than later :D

But I hope it is around 32gb at least, for future proofing at least. I wonder if there would even be need/use for 64-128gb of ram anyway with 4K resolution. Fast loading times would be nice.
 
From ps2 to ps3 ~ 14 x ram+vram
From ps3 to ps4 ~ 16 x ram+vram
From ps4 to ps5 ~ 14 - 15 x ram+vram?
= ~128 Gigs

Maybe not if it comes out sooner than later :D

But I hope it is around 32gb at least, for future proofing at least. I wonder if there would even be need/use for 64-128gb of ram anyway with 4K resolution. Fast loading times would be nice.

I'm not going to dispute your math but that may not be the best way to figure it for the future. Price and need will probably go further this time. You would have to ask the experts here what kind of RAM at what speed they feel will be necessary for 4k with all the trimmings. I doubt it is 128GB.
 
Can they increase the pad size by using a interposer?
Interposers or more recent fan-out packaging offerings allow for a chip to use a larger footprint for bumps than the area below the chip.
I am not sure in this instance if its the area consumed by the bumps versus the PHY that was the limiter.

PHY does need to be sized to match the requirements of its interface, and off-package interfaces with high speeds can have larger drivers and also protections against electrostatic discharge--depending on what is on the other end of the connection.
AMD's Fiji didn't appear to save any area on its off-PCB PCIe connection, despite being on an interposer.
The PC forum's speculation thread on AMD's Zen has a plausible diagram where the on-package GMI links have much more compact PHY than the PCIe blocks despite Zen not being on an interposer.

There might be pressure against going to 512-bits for something like a high-speed GDDR6 bus if it brings the interface area up from Hawaii/Pitcairn. GDDR6 has mores signals and much higher speeds, although we don't have an example of an implementation. The combination may put a future console with a 512-bit bus past the threshold that AMD had for Hawaii--which is a significantly larger chip with a GDDR5 interface width AMD has so far not repeated since.
 
From ps2 to ps3 ~ 14 x ram+vram
From ps3 to ps4 ~ 16 x ram+vram
From ps4 to ps5 ~ 14 - 15 x ram+vram?
= ~128 Gigs

Maybe not if it comes out sooner than later :D

But I hope it is around 32gb at least, for future proofing at least. I wonder if there would even be need/use for 64-128gb of ram anyway with 4K resolution. Fast loading times would be nice.

These historical norms are becoming very bad to use as a way to guess/hope what new consoles will be.

I'd be shocked if a PS5 had 32GB of RAM. I wouldn't be surprised if was only double what PS4 has...but at much higher bandwidth.
 
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