Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[arijoytunir]

Is geekbench a good measure to compare how far arm processors have come and may have a chance in the next step change in consoles..?
A10 fusion @2.3ghz - single core - 3325
core i5 6300u @2.4ghz - single core - 3048

 

[AlNom]

I don't think we could use Apple cores in place of standard ARM chips.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I don't think we could use Apple cores in place of standard ARM chips.

?

 

[arijoytunir]

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/column/kaigai/1066148.html

Indeed, SIE is rumored to have stopped the traditional game machine development method that completely renews the hardware and software platform. SIE is also said to develop the next generation game machine with a similar approach to Xbox One X. And, with that flow, it is speculated that it is headed towards a direction of continuing with AMD.

moreover they are hearing rumour of sony not yet started ps5 rnd but speculates to do so with amd

On the architecture, the GPU core is AMD's next-generation "Vega" or "Navi", the CPU core will be described later but AMD's latest "ZEN" system CPU core or "Jaguar Jaguar) "system CPU core. In the memory, whether or not the stacked DRAM will come is a point, but there is a high possibility that the cost reduction of the HBM 2 will not be in time. Another important point is whether to make it VR ready, what to do with deep learning inference (reasoning), and so on.

so machine learning in consoles?

The first motivation that SIE originally chose x86 CPU for PS 4 was that CPU core with high single thread performance is highly versatile and preferable. However, due to constraints of the foundation during planning, it was changed to a low-power core in which single-threaded performance is also restricted in x86 series. As SIE, it seems that x86 high performance CPU is inherently considered desirable.

so actually change in foundry decided jaguar to be in the apu rather than steamroller ...

 

[Entropy]

Is geekbench a good measure to compare how far arm processors have come and may have a chance in the next step change in consoles..?
A10 fusion @2.3ghz - single core - 3325
core i5 6300u @2.4ghz - single core - 3048

The A10x does even better.
That said AINets is perfectly right, these cores aren't commercially available, and no ARM ISA product will offer seamless backwards compatibility with the PS4. If that is a design priority.
Previously I would have said that it could be wise to avoid being locked in to AMD given the dire financial situation of the company, but it may be that they will be able to claw themselves out of their troubles. Next quarterly report will be quite interesting as a trend indicator, but their issues are deep. Going ARM is still safer from a long term stability point of view, but has its own set of issues when it comes to backwards compatibility and GPU. An AMD supplied ARM solution would be a possible compromise, the jaguar cores could probably be tucked away in a very small corner on a 7nm die to provide backwards compatibility with this generation.

 

[Prophecy2k]

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/column/kaigai/1066148.html

Indeed, SIE is rumored to have stopped the traditional game machine development method that completely renews the hardware and software platform. SIE is also said to develop the next generation game machine with a similar approach to Xbox One X. And, with that flow, it is speculated that it is headed towards a direction of continuing with AMD.

This appears to be contradicted by comments from Mark Cerny. I can hardly see Sony of all console platform companies, turning to an iterative approach now.

It isn't as if PS4Pro sales and projections for XB1X have been lighting up. So why change what works, to what seems so far at least to not have? I think this rumour is BS myself and speculation on the part of the writer.

Equally, I'm doubtful we'll see HBM2 in PS5. HBM3 maybe, but HBM2 is a non-starter.

 

[Niebotskick]

German news site golem.de did an interview with Shawn Layden where he basically confirms that there will be a PS5 and that they're not going to continue this iterative approach with the PS4.

(Google translated) link here:

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://www.golem.de/news/shawn-layden-im-interview-sony-setzt-auf-echte-ps-5-statt-auf-konsolenevolution-1706-128536.html

 

[Prophecy2k]

I was literally coming here to post this. Cheers Niebotskick

 

[AlNom]

hm...

Golem.de: Is the Pro not the entry into the business model, that like evolution of hardware takes place as with smartphones - instead of every few years a whole new generation to build up?

Layden: With the Playstation 4 Pro we have for the first time implemented this kind of innovation within the life cycle of a console. The pro is really only to offer advantages such as 4K resolutions and HMD for players who can and want to use that. Add to this a more stable image rate and larger hard disk space. But who has a standard PS4 has no real disadvantages. Each of our games will continue to run on the classic PS4 and possibly slightly better on the Pro.

Golem.de: This means that you are more likely to rely on a real Playstation 5 - whenever that will be?

Layden: Yes. It will probably be some time

Based on the translation, he kind of dodges answering whether PS5 is or is not iterative? It can be interpreted as relying on PS5 for something more than just the advantages listed there.

Throwing in a much faster CPU like Ryzen would change things up considerably already, for instance. Technically, it's not iterative (not-jaguar), but it's somewhat evolutionary.

 

[iroboto]

hm...


Based on the translation, he kind of dodges answering whether PS5 is or is not iterative.

the talk of PS5 already is weird tbh. The sooner it arrives the more like 1X it will be, and at higher price points.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Also, similar comments from MS:

Phils interview from a couple months ago..

Originally Posted by Phil Spencer

In terms of where the console space goes, there's some things about how the console business runs, in terms of you don't make any money on the hardware, it's making money on the games, making money on the service. So if you're in a situation where you're subsidizing the hardware, a faster refresh of the hardware really hurts you. Because obviously, any subsidy of the hardware is kind of played out over, somebody is going to buy games, they're going to subscribe to Live, they might go subscribe to Game Pass and other things. And that's how you kind of run a business around the console space.

So I don't think you'll see console move. Unless the prices of the consoles themselves change to where they're not a subsidized piece of hardware but rather something that's profitable, like other consumer electronic devices, I don't think you're going to see a constant iteration in the console space.

 

[Prophecy2k]

hm...


Based on the translation, he kind of dodges answering whether PS5 is or is not iterative? It can be interpreted as relying on PS5 for something more than just the advantages listed there.

Throwing in a much faster CPU like Ryzen would change things up considerably already, for instance. Technically, it's not iterative (not-jaguar), but it's somewhat evolutionary.

I don't see that as dodging the question at all really. When asked about them relying on a "real PS5", he answers an emphatic "yes".

I don't know how he can be clearer than that in terms of his intent.

 

[msia2k75]

This appears to be contradicted by comments from Mark Cerny. I can hardly see Sony of all console platform companies, turning to an iterative approach now.

It isn't as if PS4Pro sales and projections for XB1X have been lighting up. So why change what works, to what seems so far at least to not have? I think this rumour is BS myself and speculation on the part of the writer.

Equally, I'm doubtful we'll see HBM2 in PS5. HBM3 maybe, but HBM2 is a non-starter.

I thinkk there's simply a lot of confusion between iterative and evolutionary.

 

[AlNom]

Maybe they can take the font from Amazing Spiderman 2.

And MS can take the font from X-Men 2. >_>

 

[Michellstar]

I don't see that as dodging the question at all really. When asked about them relying on a "real PS5", he answers an emphatic "yes".

I don't know how he can be clearer than that in terms of his intent.

But, what is a real Ps5?? Or X2 for that matter

 

[3dilettante]

moreover they are hearing rumour of sony not yet started ps5 rnd but speculates to do so with amd

Now would be just about the time to start for a 2020 or later product, if going by the timeline of the previous generational change.

so machine learning in consoles?

Inference specifically would be more about running the results of training. It would make the "learning" a possible cloud resource that can broadcast what it learns for the console hardware to put into practice.
The Xbox One's Kinect voice controls had a similar data flow for the process of rollout and improvement. The learning component has more tools and performance in a few short years.
I'd be curious whether Sony can ramp something like this. Microsoft's ongoing cloud, infrastructure, and system development efforts show they are in the mix.
I haven't seen as much from Sony.

so actually change in foundry decided jaguar to be in the apu rather than steamroller ...

I had a feeling that the tighter process link with the Bulldozer line could have been a factor in the change.

This appears to be contradicted by comments from Mark Cerny. I can hardly see Sony of all console platform companies, turning to an iterative approach now.

Perhaps there's a happy medium between not changing the hardware basis and completely torching everything.
It would help Sony if there were a more evolutionary path. Restarting would put them back on re-fixing what they're still struggling with in the PS4's platform. They need to do more than not overreach.

Equally, I'm doubtful we'll see HBM2 in PS5. HBM3 maybe, but HBM2 is a non-starter.

Perhaps Samsung's cost-reduced HBM, which is not HBM3. If HBM2 is a non-starter despite being the "mature" standard being replaced by HBM3, would the new shiny be any cheaper?

 

[Megadrive1988]

Question is, would Samsung's low-cost HBM have a bandwidth advantage over GDDR6 ?

 

[Rikimaru]

Maybe not but it will greatly reduce motherboard complexity a takes less power.

 

[Blazkowicz]

We've had surprisingly cost effective 256-bit wide DDR or GDDR - that's on consoles, but before that it was on graphics cards.
I'm partial to the argument that this would have been unthinkable in the late 90s or early 00s.

In fact I may well imagine one console going with GDDR6 and the other with HBM (post-HBM2).
Could also be a scheme with 16GB HBM and some cheap 4GB DDR4 for caching, OS (or rather "apps" and browser).

Perhaps this is better regarding supply. If both consoles need HBM3, tens of millions units there'd be shortage and bad blood. One could go HBM3 and one HBM low-cost. Likely anyway AMD is going to use HBM3 and GDDR6 in non-console products.

 

[zupallinere]

Layden: With the Playstation 4 Pro we have for the first time implemented this kind of innovation within the life cycle of a console. The pro is really only to offer advantages such as 4K resolutions and HMD for players who can and want to use that. Add to this a more stable image rate and larger hard disk space. But who has a standard PS4 has no real disadvantages. Each of our games will continue to run on the classic PS4 and possibly slightly better on the Pro.

Originally Posted by Phil Spencer

So I don't think you'll see console move. Unless the prices of the consoles themselves change to where they're not a subsidized piece of hardware but rather something that's profitable, like other consumer electronic devices, I don't think you're going to see a constant iteration in the console space.

I look at this and think about the PS5. Even though I think the PS5 will be $399 I still think Sony would love to have a $499 sku that lasts 7 or 8 years with a $499 PS5 Pro (checkerboard 8k and HDR100 ) later on to create a sense of selling a particular piece of hardware as opposed to MS selling an ecosystem. Not that Sony doesn't want that money as well as it will be a part of everything going forward, but to grab up a little of that Apple hardware fetishy profit margins that still might be out there.

Assuming MS sees the XB1X as part of a PC/Console continuum I could see a 600 dollar PC with enough performance to mimic the XB1X while Sony can play the other side of the coin a bit and create a reasonably unique gaming experience that can drive sales while keeping multi-platform development costs down. Bespoke Sony embedded AMD tech and maybe that 24 or 32GB memory that gets bandied about could make that happen. If so the memory tech better fairly cheap to scale and some form of Non-Volatile storage to feed that memory pool will be needed. Unless that Crosspoint memory has a DDR variant