Prophecy2k
Veteran
Until PS4Pro supply improves and is able to outpace demand, and Scorpio is released and has enough time on the market to reliably see how well it has actually performed, we can't even say this.
Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]
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Until PS4Pro supply improves and is able to outpace demand, and Scorpio is released and has enough time on the market to reliably see how well it has actually performed, we can't even say this.
Tkumpathenurple
Veteran
True. It needs to be even more vague: the console manufacturers think there might be enough of those people to warrant release... perhaps... sort of.... ish.
HBRU
Regular
I think 7 nm FF+ has a chanche to become the shrink process of both Scorpio and Pro in 2019 (to go on till 2021... 4 years span)... and then next gen, that will be on the much much better (not FF+) 5 nm process of IBM & Globalfoundries just showed... process that can go even beyond (2, 3 nm ?)... FF process will probabably not go beyond 7 nm.
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Deleted member 11852
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Because the PS4 (and Xbox One) are the low bar for hardware which hold back what software is capable of. While developers get better as tapping the capabilities of hardware each year, games want to be bigger, more complex and when the hardware can't do that you end up with increasingly compromised experiences. Sony have gone on the record saying their motivation for PS4 Pro was because the eroision of userbase to PC becuase the console hardware dated. While Pro makes game slook better, they don't play better. Games still have to run on PS4 and Xbox One. It may not feel it now but in 2-3 years One and PS4 are going to feel very pokey indeed.
Except that while the original consoles exist, exclusives on Pro/Scorpio prohibited, then then you're really only talking about graphical improvements. People plumping for a console aren't graphics whores to start with; those people are on PC.
I think there's a good proportion of gamers who love awesome visuals who don't choose PC for numerous reasons. These people would love monster consoles with many bling.
That may be all true, but the release of new hardware is mostly motivated by sales and competition within the console space. There is also the question of cost.
If the PS4 continues to sell a lot of hardware and software the need to keep up with PC hardware isn't going to be a strong enough motivator to restart a gen. Even though the PS4 Pro is a mid gen console it doesn't mean it gets to avoid some of the same trappings of new gen hardware at release. Mainly cheap ports with limited budgets until it has enough of a user base to warrant higher investments. If Scorpio actually sells well it will encourage better development on the Pro.
I think the whole point of mid gen consoles is derived from Sony and MS desire for longer generations while removing the biggest disadvantage of lengthy generations, which is aging hardware.
Also, I think both MS and Sony are in experimental mode and looking for the best path forward. So you may be right and Sony might end up releasing sooner. But if mid gens actually start delivering hardware performance and sales I'd expect the gen to stretch out past 2019.
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Deleted member 11852
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Sure, on PlayStation that number currently stands at 20% in terms of sales but likely
% in terms of existing user base. That will climb. Slowly. Not exactly a mass market.
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Deleted member 11852
Guest
Yup. New consoles are effectively a technology arms race. But 100+ sales of PS2 didn't drop Sony developing PS3 and selling it for a lot more.
Time will tell!
HBRU
Regular
if Scorpio sells really a lot then Sony is maybe pushed to release -at end 2018- a Pro2 (16 jaguars, 16 Gb GDDR6, GPU 8.4 Tflops)... But only if some process is available not to make the die size huge... that could mean join two PS4pro chips toghether with new AMD tech. This is going to be a real 300 watts console at 16 FF, cooled in a similar way as Scorpio is. Really unlikely I know.
Isn't 3nm the end of the current roadmap? No one knows how to go beyond that at this point? Not in a practical sense anyway.
Prophecy2k
Veteran
I think we all need to temper our expectations regarding Scorpio. It's a more premium device than Sony's PS4Pro, with probably one of the largest die sizes of any console on the market, is the highest clocked console to ever exist and thus boasts a rather sophisticated and thus expensive cooling system (for a console. On top of this, by MS's own admission it has PCB components cherry picked for each individual unit to balance the power profile, so will be more expensive to build and assemble than the XB1 S.
MS themselves expect Scorpio to sell less than the XB1S, which itself is currently still being outsold 2:1 in MS's strongest sales region. I'm not even sure MS will even be able to make enough Scorpios to match PS4 sales, even if the demand for such a premium device is there.
Scorpio is clearly not a mass market device and so will be very unlikely to impact Sony's plans for their next-gen console (possibly even MS's for that matter).
MS themselves expect Scorpio to sell less than the XB1S, which itself is currently still being outsold 2:1 in MS's strongest sales region. I'm not even sure MS will even be able to make enough Scorpios to match PS4 sales, even if the demand for such a premium device is there.
Scorpio is clearly not a mass market device and so will be very unlikely to impact Sony's plans for their next-gen console (possibly even MS's for that matter).
You are ruining my pre-E3 hype high. Even if I have no intentions of buying it.
Prophecy2k
Veteran
Lol, sorry Silenti... as you were.
Hype on wit ya bad self
Hype on wit ya bad self
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Deleted member 13524
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During their reveal pieces, DigitalFoundry seemed to insist that Scorpio would be expensive, several times. I'm not really willing to go back to those pieces to get the exact quotes but I think they threw around the $500 mark several times.
Unless there's a whole lot of surprises still coming like a 2TB SSHD or some 32GB of NVMe storage as "large cache", and/or bundle an Elite gamepad, etc. I think $500 may hamper sales a bit too much. Especially as Sony seems to be getting ready to bring the Pro down to $350.
But maybe those $500 were mentioned just so people would be surprised when a $450 real price comes up at E3 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Is anyone expecting Scorpio to be cheap? Madness.
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Deleted member 13524
Guest
During promotions sure, but I was talking about Sony officially lowering the MSRP to $350/€, with promotions bringing the price down to $300/€.
I don't think anyone is expecting Scorpio to be cheap, but I do think if it comes at $500 it'll face too many mental barriers.
This conversation is super off-topic, though.
really unlikely. Sony is in a pretty confortable position, they don't need a new machine. PS4 Pro isn't an ideal machine tbh, and PS4 merits come from some wise decisions, adding to that the demerits of others. They also have a set of exclusive games that other companies don't. So I don't expect a new Sony console til 2019.
Prophecy2k
Veteran
I think that I'm with DSoup on the fact that regardless of PS4 current sales success, Sony learned a valuable lesson with the PS3 on how not to rest on your laurels in a comfortable dominant position and get caught with your pants down.
Since the disaster that was the XB1 launch, MS (or rather Xbox) have shown themselves to be a rather agile and responsive competitor; clawing back goodwill and capitalizing on every area they can where Playstation is perceived to be weak. With XB360 they showed that they're not averse to launching a new console platform "early", so the fact of Scorpio's launch this year shouldn't make Sony think that MS will feel forced to wait longer than necessary to re-start the gen.
Sony and MS will launch their next-boxes as soon as it's feasible to do so, given the strategic goals and available technology they want to target. PS4's success won't really factor into it.
That being said, I agree that a 2019/2020 time frame sounds about right.
Since the disaster that was the XB1 launch, MS (or rather Xbox) have shown themselves to be a rather agile and responsive competitor; clawing back goodwill and capitalizing on every area they can where Playstation is perceived to be weak. With XB360 they showed that they're not averse to launching a new console platform "early", so the fact of Scorpio's launch this year shouldn't make Sony think that MS will feel forced to wait longer than necessary to re-start the gen.
Sony and MS will launch their next-boxes as soon as it's feasible to do so, given the strategic goals and available technology they want to target. PS4's success won't really factor into it.
That being said, I agree that a 2019/2020 time frame sounds about right.
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