Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[Deleted member 86764]

I think the next generation of consoles is kind of hard to predict, we have some unresolved issues with the current machines. Will Morpheus and Microsoft’s glasses tech come out for the PS4 and the Xbox One? I struggle to see how it’s all that possible; neither box is all that powerful. I also struggle to see how they’re saved for the next round since the price of admission for a console and headset will be debilitating for most.

Regardless, I’ll throw out a few hardware based predictions of my own, only without going into very specific numbers:

Microsoft:
Will understand why they’ve been successful in the past and their next console will annihilate the competition from a specifications perspective, it will also be released before the PS5. Two versions will be released, one premium version with VR glasses, the other without. Good solid VR software will be available from release and justify the extra expense. It will be sold as primarily as a gaming machine although its application will be compatible for businesses.

Sony:
Will have released their Morpheus for the PS4 and will provide updated screens on the new system, high hz and resolution. The console itself won’t be able to compete with Microsoft’s so they’ll differentiate with a strong first-party line-up of games. Second/third generation versions of VR games already established will be sold.

I’d expect Xbox Two to drop around 2018.

 

[London Geezer]

I stand to be corrected, but I cannot see 4k being 'standard' in just 5-6 years. XOne still can't do 1080p as standard, and we've seen that "almost 1080p" resolution are fine a lot of the time.
I am totally convinced, for now, that if we do get something, we'll just get "almost, kinda 4k" resolutions next time around, and they will look just fine with the right type of AA.

 

[liolio]

Microsoft:
If they still need the Xbox (vs Windows STB) it will means that they are in serious trouble in the personal computing realm.

Sony:
Exit the race.

 

[goonergaz]

I stand to be corrected, but I cannot see 4k being 'standard' in just 5-6 years. XOne still can't do 1080p as standard, and we've seen that "almost 1080p" resolution are fine a lot of the time.
I am totally convinced, for now, that if we do get something, we'll just get "almost, kinda 4k" resolutions next time around, and they will look just fine with the right type of AA.

Yeah, I can see next gen being 1080p60 with all the bells and whistles, VR etc with the option of some games going 4k.

Sony:
Exit the race.

I can't see that at all, not after the success of PS4.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I guess I'm not a believer in 4K (at least in the time frame of next gen). Sure eventually every TV will move to 4K, but I don't see people going out to upgrade for 4K like they did for HD so I think the transition will be much slower.

I agree. For what it's worth as a 4K TV owner, there are plenty of native comparisons of both video and still images that switch between 1080p and 4K and the difference between the two can be quite startling. You don't need to be able to discern the individuals pixels from your viewing distance to appreciate the increased detail in 4K.

 

[Alucardx23]

I think this generation will end with cloud computing doing half of the work for the games processing. If Sony or Microsoft decide to release a new console, it will be basically a small box that works as the client for the remote server, that way they can guarantee a high quality compressor/decompressor for a low price, but if you already have a PS4/Xbox One, you should be good.

 

[McHuj]

I don't believe in the cloud for next gen yet. In 5-8 years, the compute capability maybe there to run PS4/X1 games, but not necessarily a next gen experience. If we assume that next gen machines are going to be on the order of a 10-20 Tflop machine, that is a lot of hardware to deploy for a new and in demand product. I'm not sure the economics are there.

If you look at services like Nvidia Grid, Onlive, etc, they're fine, but they're also running old games and not exactly the cutting edge. PSNOW is viable because the PS3 hardware is cheap now to put in a server and there isn't much demand for it in comparison to new PS4 titles.

 

[TheWretched]

Yeah, I can see next gen being 1080p60 with all the bells and whistles, VR etc with the option of some games going 4k.



I can't see that at all, not after the success of PS4.

Yeah, especially since their gaming division is the money maker. That'd be like Apple dropping the iPhone in favor of the home computers.

And yes. I think VR will be the next big thing. At least for Sony. They've been in this game for a while, but never went "full monty" with it. But I am not sure they'll put all their eggs in those one basket, unless their first version of Morpeus and/or Occulus Rift take off massively. It'll always be a regular console, but depending on that success, it might be tailored more towards VR than otherwise (whatever that might mean).

Nintendo... they seem reluctant to actually go very high end. For their own games, they don't even need to, but I don't think they can sustain a livelyhood without other games as well. Being the cheap second console for Nintendo games can work... but even the PS4 and X1 now aren't that expensive. Not what Nintendo usually does, but the Wii U also launched a mere 100USD under PS4.

MS... I can't see what they're doing at all. Kinect what aborted now. VR is sure to come (or rather, is rumored to). Their "Illumniroom" or whatever it was called... will probably be quite expensive, as it needs a projector, a room to fit, and ... I don't think it adds as much (plus, as always, only first party games would actually take advantage of it).


So... for the hardware... I can't say. Are our current consoles massively underpowered in terms of RAM, Bandwidth, CPU or GPU? From what I've seen, it's mostly CPU. But that might as well be just "launch issues" still having effect (i.e. new years games might not have these issues).

So... in essence. Just more of what we have today. Maybe more CPU to get more world simulation. But not if the GPU or RAM will suffer. I'd rather pay a bit more (well, I might be alone on that front^^)

 

[liolio]

Well PS4 has yet to win the race against the XB1, it leads but it is quite early.
More importantly and it applies to both, I expect competition coming in multiple form during those system life time: Windows gaming, Android gaming, etc.
If there happen to be a (software) platform that peak up some momentum in the next five years or more and it happen to run on ARM good luck for either MSFT or Sony going after Korean and Chinese integrators /lost cause. At least MSFT has an OS to push once the battle move to OS. It is just a matter of time, when not if.
Console or TV may not be the best market (compared to phones, tablets) but once the growth potential of the new markets are tapped or stabilize (at this pace fast) I expect the "party" (/bloodbath depending on one's pov) to get started.

 

[Cjail]

There will be no 9th gen consoles, cloud gaming is the future

 

[Rodéric]

I vote Nintendo going hybrid Rasterization/Ray Tracing using IMG hardware to differentiate itself from the competition.
This processor is available as low power for their handheld and can (presumably) scale to home console capability, making it quite attractive for a Home/Handheld compatibility strategy.

As for technical specifications I'd think something on-par with current generation consoles (not counting Ray Tracing processing power.)

(BTW I only reach Gen 7 for nex generation consoles... NES, SNES, N64, NGC, Wii, Wii U, 'NES7')

 

[AlNom]

(BTW I only reach Gen 7 for nex generation consoles... NES, SNES, N64, NGC, Wii, Wii U, 'NES7')

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_video_game_consoles_(first_generation)

... I guess.

 

[Kaotik]

(BTW I only reach Gen 7 for nex generation consoles... NES, SNES, N64, NGC, Wii, Wii U, 'NES7')

NES wasn't 1st gen, it was 3rd gen. First console generation was Magnavox Odyssey & co, 2nd Atari 2600 etc

 

[Riddlewire]

Poppycock!

Odyssey was at least 6th gen.

Here's the 1st gen. And it was already handheld!

 

[Esrever]

I wonder what the end of moore's law will do to consoles. 10nm will probably be the last economically usable node for a looooong time, proceeding nodes will probably have so little improvements if they even manage to get them working. 9th gen will probably be very standard silicon built on 10nm while 10th gen will get highly customized silicon on 10nm and then there won't be much hardware improvements until breakthroughs happen.

 

[Delta9]

AMD needs to give Sony a kill deal next time!

If they would just hook them up with the best gear they got, it not only ensures higher quality games, but also forces PC owners to upgrade big time too. A win for everyone right?

 

[shredenvain]

AMD needs to give Sony a kill deal next time!

If they would just hook them up with the best gear they got, it not only ensures higher quality games, but also forces PC owners to upgrade big time too. A win for everyone right?

Well being that all 3 systems use Amd hardware now I am not sure how they would try to play God by choosing who gets the best hardware. Plus you have a lot more to consider when designing a box that needs to work for 5+ years. Thermals and power draw play a big part and will continue to do so. I wonder if Sony will take another shot at designing something custom completely in house for the Ps5 GPU. Probably not, but it doesn't hurt to dream. Also wondering what direction MS will go in. Will they go closervto off the shelf standard design or a more custom design like the Xbox One.

 

[Delta9]

Well being that all 3 systems use Amd hardware now I am not sure how they would try to play God by choosing who gets the best hardware. Plus you have a lot more to consider when designing a box that needs to work for 5+ years. Thermals and power draw play a big part and will continue to do so. I wonder if Sony will take another shot at designing something custom completely in house for the Ps5 GPU. Probably not, but it doesn't hurt to dream. Also wondering what direction MS will go in. Will they go closervto off the shelf standard design or a more custom design like the Xbox One.

I mean they should just up it for all really. I know they get good deals,but this way would for better for everyone I think. The cpu/gpu will be dirt cheap 2 years later anyway. Just make it VCR style like the Xbone= bigNsimple if you want

 

[McHuj]

I wonder what the end of moore's law will do to consoles. 10nm will probably be the last economically usable node for a looooong time, proceeding nodes will probably have so little improvements if they even manage to get them working. 9th gen will probably be very standard silicon built on 10nm while 10th gen will get highly customized silicon on 10nm and then there won't be much hardware improvements until breakthroughs happen.

That's a good point on the slow down of Moore's law. But I think we'll see much more in terms of custom silicon next time. If they simply rely on silicon scaling, you're probably only looking at 3-4X increase in performance due to diminishing returns in scaling. That would be decent, but I'm not sure it's good enough. Therefore, I think they will have to compensate with some customized hardware to increase performance. I'm predicting a HBM stack with a layer of logic for in memory processing.

 

[DieH@rd]

I wonder what the end of moore's law will do to consoles. 10nm will probably be the last economically usable node for a looooong time, proceeding nodes will probably have so little improvements if they even manage to get them working. 9th gen will probably be very standard silicon built on 10nm while 10th gen will get highly customized silicon on 10nm and then there won't be much hardware improvements until breakthroughs happen.

Stacked CPU/GPU chips.