Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[dobwal]

I expect Sony's Gaikai and MS's Arcadia service to take flight and be fully serviceable on a wide scale basis by 2020.

Console generations as we know it will die and

If Nintendo is smart, they will replace WiiU in late 2016. But... they are Nintendo. They will manage to fuckup something even if they take APU fully made by AMD.

Its one thing to cut short the life of your under-performing console and move onto the next gen when the dominant platform is basically EOL. Its another to cut your console's life short and expect market acceptance of new hardware when the dominant platforms are in the midst of their prime.

I don't see many third party pubs and devs falling over themselves trying to procure early WiiU2 dev kits in a little over a year from now. Trying to be more in line in how MS and Sony operate involves more than offering similar hardware. They are going to need familiar easy to use hardware, good tools/documentation, good online infrastructure with a competing feature set and a very inclusive and robust third party marketing program to make a serious in roads with third party pubs. Thats going to require a massive change in Nintendo's culture and how it operates.

I doubt Nintendo can change the stripes its being living with for over 30 years in just two years time.

 

[Deleted member 86764]

In my opinion if any of the big 3 are going to shoot for 4k (I hope not) they may go with a dual gpu setup. If VR catches on they might also look into the same thing so they would have a GPU per eye.

Wouldn't one larger GPU make more sense?

Maybe I've still got my head in the past, but rather than having an APU I'd like separate C/GPUs. Or specialist hardware of some kind.

 

[Esrever]

Wouldn't one larger GPU make more sense?

Maybe I've still got my head in the past, but rather than having an APU I'd like separate C/GPUs. Or specialist hardware of some kind.

While we are at that I was some float point coprocessor and off die cache and a socket for each cpu core.

 

[shredenvain]

Wouldn't one larger GPU make more sense?

Maybe I've still got my head in the past, but rather than having an APU I'd like separate C/GPUs. Or specialist hardware of some kind.

One larger GPU could work I am sure. Just throwing out a theory. Also I am with you on the separate CPU and GPU as opposed to APU. If they all go APU that would more than likely mean they would use AMD. Unless Nvidia makes some advancement on their CPU offerings or Hell could freeze over and Intel could get serious about GPUs.
PS I have nothing against AMD's CPUs or GPUs. In fact I only own AMD hardware. I am just unsure if AMD having a monopoly on console hardware is the best thing for the consumer.

 

[Globalisateur]

I predict 4k to be the industry standard for PS5/XB2 games. Both companies will build their hardware in order to have a decent 4K machine (at least as much as PS4 is a 1080p machine).

I fully expect that Microsoft won't be doing the same esram choice, this memory architecture seriously hurt them at launch.

Wii U 2 will probably be a 1080p machine with PS4 similar specs, roughly as much as Wii U was a Xbox 360 on par machine.

VR will probably have its market somehow, so Microsoft will probably release its own VR hardware. But the whole helmet stuff will be a problem for the general public. Personally I am more interested at first in 3D with glass free 3D TVs (with eyes tracking stuff) and then in VR by holographic solutions.

 

[Scott_Arm]

They'll use whatever low to mid-range PC components are affordable for a $400 launch price that isn't a loss.

 

[Rangers]

This thread is predicated on there actually being a next-gen console. If you believe things will be radically different such as game streaming to a thin client, don't post here.

Every gen it seemingly gets harder to predict if their will be another. But once in each gen, you must ask if another seems worthwhile. I think just last time, the question "is more power useful?" is already clearly a yes. We need it to do 1080P, let alone 4k, let alone any possible even more demanding 4k Shenanigans.

Anyways against the tide, I'd say there's a VERY strong chance you'll see ARM in a console next gen. Word is at least MS actually really wanted to go ARM this time, but 64 bit wasn't ready.

I bet ARM just has massive cost wins, which will explain why I definitely feel like the hardware vendors are chomping at the bit to go to it ASAP, with current gen just barely missing the cutoff.

So if you have ARM, I bet you Nvidia may well be involved too since then it's licenees ahoy. So yeah, not betting the house on it, but an Arm/Nvidia box is a very strong possibility I'd think. And I would think it more likely to come from Microsoft, although it could be either/or/both.

 

[Graham]

I imagine whatever tech is providing the best bang for buck in 2 years from now will form the basis for the consoles, releasing 3 or so years later.
Given AMD got bought out by Qualcomm at the tail end of 2016 and got refocused on chips for bloody lifenet implants and EUDs they are out of the question. And with the whole legal 'issue' with NVIDIA's jengate fiasco the prospect of backwards compatibility is sadly just a fanboy fantasy, let alone getting some evolution of the tech. Hell, the only people left making traditional gpu's are Intel and Arm with their Mali XL 'hyper cores' (lol). Of course with Intel all but dead now due to The Event that's out off the list too (shame, the hybrid reality stuff was looking promising), that leaves Arm, but who on earth would go with an Arm CPU with MIPS/3 completely sitting all over them?
Hell I don't know. The whole situation is depressing.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Who do we have to kill to stop this happening?

 

[AlNom]

Wild-card Raytracing processor? Those days are over

IMGTec just introduced one earlier this year....

Now just imagine it scaled up in 2019/9/9. Sega might have a chance. Maybe they can try out an arcade board first.

 

[DieH@rd]

Maybe they can try out an arcade board first.

Their strongest arcade currently has i3, 4gb ram, 650Ti, Windows Embedded 8 and is used for only one game
www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_pL24kG-KM

 

[goonergaz]

If the next gen is not hardware then I will migrate to PC and just play the odd exclusive I can't miss out on.

That will be a sad generation, I'm sure we will see at least one more hardware generation tho...sorry, I know that wasn't much of a prediction on the hardware itself lol

 

[Deleted member 86764]

If the next gen is not hardware then I will migrate to PC

I used to think the same thing about music and films. I'm quite heavily into music and always considered my CD collection as something quite special, but I've been using Spotify Premium for a few years now and I now wouldn't go back. Why would you? I have just about any album ever!

If Microsoft and Sony would offer a similar service that simply works with minimal lag, then why not? You would no longer be bound by hardware, there wouldn't be a need to upgrade every few years. A new game could simply use the latest and greatest hardware. If a game requires the very best GPU available at any time, then it could. We'd no longer be hardware bound and would always play on the very best (assuming it's required). I could play the same game on my phone with a compatible pad and pick it up at any time.

Having said that I agree that we'll see another hardware generation since internet connections generally aren't fast enough. Especially if they choose to go 4k or VR.

I'm not sure that VR would ever have low enough latency for an internet bound hardware, so it depends on whether that really kicks off (I hope it does).

 

[goonergaz]

If Microsoft and Sony would offer a similar service that simply works with minimal lag, then why not? You would no longer be bound by hardware, there wouldn't be a need to upgrade every few years. A new game could simply use the latest and greatest hardware. If a game requires the very best GPU available at any time, then it could. We'd no longer be hardware bound and would always play on the very best (assuming it's required). I could play the same game on my phone with a compatible pad and pick it up at any time.

Well lag is one aspect, a PC will easily be 4k by then and I can't see that amount of data being as pristine via online. I've always been slow to adopt to things like digital only and I still buy physical CDs (albeit with the free audiorip by amazon usually). But I hate the whole management of digital - it's nothing but a pain to me, with physical it's very simple and there's no issues (I always have problems when I try starting steam on a new PC for example).

So, for me anyway, it's a few things - but I am a bit of a graphics whore and as such PC will offer me complete freedom and I'd only ever have to play the Sony/MS games via their system if I had too (ie exclusives) - so I get the best of both worlds...though TBH I'm not overly happy about going down the PC route - that has a lot of baggage, but then if it's my only hardware then that will make life a bit easier.

 

[liolio]

Nintendo:
Same hardware for the home and handheld.
Handheld aims for 720p, the home console 1080p.
TSMC 28nm HPM process.
6 cores: 4/2 big/little configuration.
GPU 2 SMM using Nvidia as a ref.
2 - 4 GB of DDR4 (handheld/home version).
2 64 bit memory controller (1 disabled in the handheld).
Same games on the handheld and the home console.
Conservative but cheap.

I think Nintendo should aim for 99$ for both the handheld and the micro console. I think the handheld would be perfectly fine with only one ~5 inch 720p (touch) screen and no gimmick. I would go for an updated "yoga" type of clamshell design.
I would include motion sensor to both the home console controller and the handheld.

Overall 99$ buy you lots of thing nowadays: late Windows tablets, lots of Android tablets, cheap mini desktop or chromebox and STB, cheap phones.
I don't expect Nintendo to reach that amount of bang for buck but what I wrote above sounds reasonable for them to achieve in a couple of years.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

A 2 SMM GPU would be a rather incremental upgrade over the Wii U's terribly outdated GPU, and would maintain Nintendo in the laughing stock of 3rd parties for many years to come.

2 SMM is what's expected to come in the next Tegra with Maxwell, probably coming out Q2 2015.
Launching a home console in 2016 with the performance of a 2015 mobile SoC would be terrible, no matter the price.

They would most likely skip the home console business and have only a portable console.

 

[liolio]

A 2 SMM GPU would be a rather incremental upgrade over the Wii U's terribly outdated GPU, and would maintain Nintendo in the laughing stock of 3rd parties for many years to come.

2 SMM is what's expected to come in the next Tegra with Maxwell, probably coming out Q2 2015.
Launching a home console in 2016 with the performance of a 2015 mobile SoC would be terrible, no matter the price.

They would most likely skip the home console business and have only a portable console.

Yop exactly I don't expect Nintendo to try competing with either Chinese tablets manufacturers or Sony/Msft. Now if the hardware is not awesome it can be priced reasonably and they can focus on delivering their awesome software which it seems needs no gimmick to be awesome.
The 3ds or the 2ds or the new 3DS are terrible and yet they are selling.
Like seen with the XB1 vs PS4 price is overlooked by geeks too much. The thing for Nintendo is to get it all together, hardware, software line up, price so the devices are set-up for a good start (and they make money). Promising the moon only to disappoint should be avoided.

 

[ArcticCircle]

I really don't have any idea what type of consoles are possible in next gen. I have a feeling that Nintendo will choose ultra low cost and power option but at the same time will find the way to sell two machines to hardcore fans. ARM console + portable (just to sell almost same thing twice). Find the way to port Wii U games to each and allow 2nd display play if customer choose to buy both systems. Powerwise it's close to what Wii U is now (or simimar jump from Gamecube to Wii).

Both MS and Sony drop out of graphics race and go for the max value. Tiny increases to memory amount (16Gb probably). Bandwidth increase will probably be more important. CPU will still be very weak. Lower mid range GPU at the time of release (mostly because of power requirements).

 

[DieH@rd]

By 2019, I really don't think that MS or Sony will aim at only 16GB. Heck, devs are today very easily filling up ~5-6GB of ram that they have access to on nextgen [even Jonathan Blow commented how he already wants more ram for The Witness ]. They would fill up 16GB in no time, especially with 4K resolution target and increased OS RAM partition [this gen it was at least 2gb, next gen will probably be double or more].

I am more inclined to believe that next Nintendo home console will have 16GB of some cheap ram in it in 2-3 years.

 

[McHuj]

I guess I'm not a believer in 4K (at least in the time frame of next gen). Sure eventually every TV will move to 4K, but I don't see people going out to upgrade for 4K like they did for HD so I think the transition will be much slower.

If that's the case, then 16-24GB would probably be enough for next gen, I don't think we'll need to increase art asset quality. It's probably enough space to store "good enough" geometry, textures, and all render targets. Instead I would focus on pixel quality (thus shoot for really, high bandwidth).