Predict: Next gen console tech (9th iteration and 10th iteration edition) [2014 - 2017]

[Shifty Geezer]

The companion thread to this epic, make your technology-based predictions for next-gen consoles, 9th generation, following on from XBox One and PlayStation 4 and Nintendo Wii U.

This thread is predicated on there actually being a next-gen console. If you believe things will be radically different such as game streaming to a thin client, don't post here. Otherwise, post your predictions on when the new machines will land and what hardware they'll be packing.

We did an incredibly accurate job last time. I'm sure within a couple dozen posts we'll have a dependable forecast of the new consoles. <- need this smilie back!

 

[chris1515]

New AMD APU:X 86 eight more powerful cores 2 GHz. AMD GPUS 8 to 18 TFlops, 48 to 64 Rops, at least 1 Tbit/s of bandwith with unified 3D stacked memory. Between 32 and 64 GB of RAM.. Other DSP for help the CPU.

An evolution of the PS4/Xbox One architecture

 

[DieH@rd]

An evolution of the PS4/Xbox One architecture

Pretty much this. Boost everything as much as possible for 200W power envelope limit [I would rather 250W, but that is a hard sell to console makers], and maintain current X86 APU design with shorter arrival on the market after PS4. Let's say 6 years [late 2019 for arrival of PS5].

What I would like to see is much faster mass storage. 1TB V-NAND SSD with and PCIE connection to the mobo would be a great start.

 

[Newguy]

AMD 8 x86 cores up to 2.4GHz, GPU between 3072:192:64 - 4608:288:64 from 1100-1400MHz, 24-48GB (768-1152GB/s) with various DSPs. 4TB HDD.

 

[McHuj]

Alright. Let me try.

Miyamoto indicated Nintendo is working on the next system already so a new console from Nintendo is a given.

For Sony, I don't recall if it was during the PS4 reveal, but at one of those early events Cerny discussed that about a year after the PS3 launch they did their postmortem on the PS3 and began initial work on the PS4. So if they are following a similar schedule, then they will begin initial work on the PS5 in the coming year. My hope is that their big take aways are the focus on games and the performance/price ratio that they delivered. As well as the PS4 is selling and if Sony's financial health improves, there will be a PS5.

For Microsoft, I have no clue what they will do, if anything. I could see them ditching all devices and going strictly software. But for now, I assume they will put out another box, but priced more competitively.

Nintendo (With WiiU sales down 25% YoY as of week 50,2014 in Japan, I think they will launch sooner)
Launch: 2016 (WiiU has a 4 year lifespan)
Power Consumption: 50W
Process: 28nm
CPU/GPU: 1.6 GHz AMD Quad-core x86 + 800 Gigaflop GPU
RAM: Unified 4GB DDR4 2166
Optical: BRD
Storage: 128GB Flash
Controller: Traditional, but new portable can be used as gamepad for backwards compatibility
Price: $249

Sony - I think they'll go for the more of the same (I would)
Launch: 2019
Power Consumption: 150W
Process: 10nm
CPU: 2.4GHz AMD x86 true octa-core (no more 2 quad-core modules)
GPU: AMD 8 Teraflop 1 GHz
Memory: Unified 16 GB HBM @ 1TB/sec
Optical: BRD
Storage: 512MB SSD
Price: 399
Controller: Same

Microsoft - I think they'll go for a lower spec'ed system, but sooner and at a lower price.
Launch: 2018
Power Consumption: 100W
Process: 10nm
CPU: Nvidia 2.0GHz ARM octa-core
GPU: Nvidia 6-8 Teraflop 1 GHz
Memory: Unified 16 GB HBM @ 1TB/sec
Storage: 512MB SSD
Optical: None
Price: 349
Controller: Same

IMO, the wildcard is VR. And if it takes off, I can see the requirements scaling up. I don't believe 4K will really be a big factor. I think the better focus would be to provide better performance (fps) and pristine IQ. (I could see some sort of return of dedicated hardware in the GPU like Xenos had in the daughter die to help out with that.)

Also, If 16GB of HBM type memory isn't feasible, I can see a return to split memory for the CPU/GPU with something like 8+8 or 16+8. But I think bandwidth on the order of 1TB/sec for the video memory will be necessary.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I concur with the x86 basis. There seems little reason to change from that. The limiting factor at the moment seems to be fabrication and what'll actually be producible en masse. How much silicon is going to be available for use? What's the fastest bus that'll be possible?

Other than that, it's quite possibly the most boring set of options ever. CPU is x86 or ARM - can't see any reason for anything else. GPU is PC architecture (unified shaders, compute) as that's what everything's doing including mobile. Wild-card Raytracing processor? Those days are over! About the only possibility for something interesting is if I reawaken my Grand Vision and look at something like a gaming tablet with dock. Device-level connections should be extremely fast allowing a local network of processors across two devices to work fairly transparently. I doubt anyone has enough courage to try something as different as that though. Maybe Nintendo, wanting to be different.

 

[AlNom]

Sony - I think they'll go for the more of the same (I would)
Launch: 2019
Power Consumption: 150W
Process: 10nm
CPU: 2.4GHz AMD x86 true octa-core (no more 2 quad-core modules)
GPU: AMD 8 Teraflop 1 GHz
Memory: Unified 16 GB HBM @ 1TB/sec
Optical: BRD
Storage: 512MB SSD
Price: 399
Controller: Same

Microsoft - I think they'll go for a lower spec'ed system, but sooner and at a lower price.
Launch: 2018
Power Consumption: 100W
Process: 10nm
CPU: Nvidia 2.0GHz ARM octa-core
GPU: Nvidia 6-8 Teraflop 1 GHz
Memory: Unified 16 GB HBM @ 1TB/sec
Storage: 512MB SSD
Optical: None
Price: 349
Controller: Same

hmm.... would it be too soon for 10nm? Feels like it would be too new (low volume, high cost) by 2018 if 16nm is ramping up in 2016, and 10nm comes a couple years later.

Also, why is MS going to use nVidia?

(512 GB SSD )

 

[DieH@rd]

nVidia is coming back in console space only if AMD is somehow not alive by 2017 when most important design decisions for nextgen will be made.

 

[HTupolev]

Pretty much this. Boost everything as much as possible for 200W power envelope limit [I would rather 250W, but that is a hard sell to console makers

Depending on what we mean by "envelope limit" even 200W is seriously pushing it; the PS4 is hot for eighth-gen, and although the PSU is supposedly rated to provide something like 250W, the console supposedly never goes above 150W.

Neither Microsoft nor Sony want to poke the boundaries this time around, and that's a lesson that they very well might not forget by the next cycle.

Wild-card Raytracing processor?

It'll be there right alongside the experimental "cloud of 600 PIC16 cores" CPU.

 

[Globalisateur]

AMD x86 APU
- CPU: 8 or 12 cores between 3Ghz and 4Ghz
- ARM included in the APU
- GPU: 10 - 15 Tflops
- AMD TrueAudio-ish hardware

Unified memory
- 64GB or 128GB of HBM depending of price and availability.
- Bandwidth between 1Tb/s and 1.4Tb/s

EDIT: Release date prediction: end of 2020
EDIT April 24th 2015: - CPU: 16 cores

 

[McHuj]

hmm.... would it be too soon for 10nm? Feels like it would be too new (low volume, high cost) by 2018 if 16nm is ramping up in 2016, and 10nm comes a couple years later.

Also, why is MS going to use nVidia?

(512 GB SSD )

With regards to NVIDIA, I figured I'd have to throw one out there that wasn't safe prediction. I don't think IBM nor Intel would be considered due cost (Intel). I also assume neither Sony nor MS would just blindly go to AMD and say "give us what's next" so I imagine there will be some sort of bake off. NVIDIA and maybe Qualcomm seem like the only two viable candidates and maybe one will win.

10nm will be interesting. This article from the Cadence blog: http://community.cadence.com/cadenc.../17/tsmc-sees-fast-ramp-for-16-and-10nm-nodes had from a story about the TSMC's CEO from back in October:

In his wide-ranging technology presentation, Liu highlighted the march to 10nm, where the pace of innovation from IP certification and tools validation to manufacturing is happening much faster.

Liu said he expects 10nm customer tapeouts a year from now (second half of 2015) and risk production in the fourth quarter of next year.

If they're right about the target for risk production in 2016, but you add the typical TSMC is late by a year or two, then 2018/9 isn't that out of reach.

 

[zed]

We did an incredibly accurate job last time.

Based on that I personally guarantee none of the guesses (nintendo excepted) will be accurate until 2019

 

[Esrever]

Microsoft and sony will launch around 2020, nintendo will probably launch by 2017.

I assume by 2020 we will have fully heterogeneous socs where GPU and CPU cores aren't as cut and dry as they are now and there is actually integration beyond memory coherency. Memory will be stackable in some way and be close to the processor and media will be mostly digital. I don't predict anyone come build a console over 150W.

Nintendo's console will likely improve the feature set from terascale to gcn. Maybe they will get full dx12 feature set. My prediction is the performance isn't going to beat 8th gen as it makes no economic sense from nintendo's perspective. A custom designed APU from AMD very similar to the xb1 will be my guess.

 

[DieH@rd]

If Nintendo is smart, they will replace WiiU in late 2016. But... they are Nintendo. They will manage to fuckup something even if they take APU fully made by AMD.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Let's keep Nintendo's business strategy discussion in the other thread. For this thread, just make a release-date prediction to accompany one's hardware prediction.

 

[tunafish]

My take:

The next console from the big three will be from Nintendo, and it will be released late '16 - early '17 They will aim for lowest possible cost while being consistently just enough faster than a PS4 for it to be noticeable. As a result, it will largely not be considered to be a proper 9th gen console. It will be a AMD apu system very similar to the current ones, only having slightly more/faster everything made on a new production process, and possibly, if HBM is mature and cheap enough, stacked ram. (But I wouldn't bet on it.)

Rationale: Wii U is a flop, and a lot of people blame small game library due to lack of 3rd party titles and ports. Once they admit their mistakes, companies tend to overcorrect -- so Wii Next will be designed for compatibility first and foremost. This is very easy because AMD will happily sell Nintendo what are basically PS4++ socs.

I expect performance to be slightly above current offerings simply because this is very easy to achieve at low cost, given the launch after a new process becomes available. I don't expect performance to be greatly over current offerings because this doesn't appear to be Nintendo's "thing", and for simple market reasons once you can win any comparisons there is little point. Also, they definitely want to avoid being too good, as this could cause competition to speed up their plans and thus reduce the time they are in the lead.

Unlike many others here, I don't expect the 8th gen to be short-lived. Unless the world economy suddenly picks up in a major way, there is little point in peddling a new console generation for a while, no matter how much it would beat the current one. I expect PS4 to beat PS3 in longevity.

 

[Kaotik]

So next-gen Nintendo predictions should go there or stay here?
For all we know, next-gen Nintendo could very well be more of a current-gen (8th generation) console, like the Wii U being more of a 7th generation console regarding its capabilities.

ExtremeTech is quoting something said in a recent AMD conference as a clue pointing that Nintendo will use a new x86 APU for their next console:

IIRC AMD has also said that at least one of the 2 semi-customs will start bringing money in in 2016, maybe Nintendo is rushing the thing out in 2016 already, counted as 8th gen or 8½th gen

 

[shredenvain]

In my opinion if any of the big 3 are going to shoot for 4k (I hope not) they may go with a dual gpu setup. If VR catches on they might also look into the same thing so they would have a GPU per eye.

 

[AlNom]

When you folks say "shooting for higher res", do you mean just the colour and depth blocks ? It's still handy to have a high depth rate (i.e. shadows, MSAA, post-fx etc).


edit: or.... you guys mean MS/Sony telling devs to target 4K? (SW-side)

 

[Kaotik]

When you folks say "shooting for higher res", do you mean just the colour and depth blocks ? It's still handy to have a high depth rate (i.e. shadows, MSAA, post-fx etc).


edit: or.... you guys mean MS/Sony telling devs to target 4K? (SW-side)

I'm surprised if we get actual 1080p60 next gen with next gen visuals (or even current gen PC visuals)