Sony Takes Lead as Console War Heats Up
By Dean Takahashi, Mercury News
The E3 video game trade show in Los Angeles ended Friday with a record 70,000 attendees. The buzz centered on the opening salvos of the next-generation console war. Here's an analysis of the contest, based on interviews with more than two dozen executives and industry observers.
Did Sony's PlayStation 3 really steal the thunder from Microsoft's Xbox 360?
The buzz: Dozens of industry observers said Sony defeated Microsoft in the public relations battle. Sony showed videos of games such as "KillZone'' that were considered a cut above Microsoft's game demos. That put Microsoft on the defensive all week, and it may convince gamers to wait until next year for the PlayStation 3 instead of buying an Xbox 360 in the fall.
Analysis: Said Phil O'Neil, president of Vivendi Universal Games: "We're agnostic on the consoles. But if I had to choose a religion, I'd think very seriously about Sony.'' Another executive said his large game-publishing company would shift more resources into making PlayStation 3 games instead of Xbox 360 games.
But behind closed doors, publishers were showing a lot of good Xbox 360 games. Jack Sorenson, THQ's executive vice president of worldwide studios, noted there was plenty of smoke and mirrors at the press conferences.
He said that until Sony presents working, interactive games running on real hardware, it won't be clear if Sony has a discernible edge in game graphics quality. Microsoft's developers, by contrast, are much further along in showing groundbreaking games, he said. "There's a huge difference between closely controlled demos and working games.''
Is this the end of the world for Microsoft?
The buzz: If the games Microsoft has in the works truly distinguish themselves from games on the current consoles, that may be enough to convince gamers to take a chance on the Xbox 360.
Analysis: Microsoft isn't likely to emerge with the largest market share in the next generation if Sony makes good on what it promised at E3. But most observers believe Microsoft will gain market share against Sony and Nintendo. That's because Microsoft is launching its new console first and has much more support from developers than it had with the previous version of the Xbox.
Did Microsoft deliver a better message about online services and attracting more new gamers?
The buzz: Microsoft showed off big improvements to its Xbox Live online service for gamers, and the Xbox 360 will come with wireless Internet access.
Analysis: Microsoft showed it learned from two years of offering Xbox Live, which now has 2 million subscribers. Billy Pidgeon, an analyst at the Zelos Group, said game publishers will likely reap more revenues from online gaming, online auctions and Internet-related advertising from Microsoft than Sony.
Did Nintendo's decision not to reveal details about its new console hurt its prospects?
The buzz: Publishers were disappointed that Nintendo didn't tell them anything they didn't know and aren't sure how Nintendo's box will compete against Sony's and Microsoft's.
Analysis: Game publishers still have enormous respect for Nintendo's creativity when it comes to making zany kids' games. But they are skeptical that Nintendo's strategy will allow it to attract developers to its side when Microsoft and Sony are signing up developers left and right. There may not be many left for Nintendo.
