Possibility of no Xbox2 Announcement at GDC or March

[Urian]

I have a theory.

The reason why not Xenon in CES and not Xenon at GDC is because the console is underpowered from the original idea in the CPU part.

Why?

The most probably is that they canned the idea of the Custom Xenon PowerPC (3 64 bits cores, 6 instructions per cycle, 3.5Ghz) for a more general CPU (Probably a PowerPC 970) for mantain the cost low and fight against PS3.

 

[a688]

I have a theory.

The reason why not Xenon in CES and not Xenon at GDC is because the console is underpowered from the original idea in the CPU part.

Why?

The most probably is that they canned the idea of the Custom Xenon PowerPC (3 64 bits cores, 6 instructions per cycle, 3.5Ghz) for a more general CPU (Probably a PowerPC 970) for mantain the cost low and fight against PS3.

Thats a pretty retarted theory. If the 3 core idea was underpowered, why do you think a "more general" cpu would be better, lol.

 

[AzBat]

I have a theory.

The reason why not Xenon in CES and not Xenon at GDC is because the console is underpowered from the original idea in the CPU part.

Why?

The most probably is that they canned the idea of the Custom Xenon PowerPC (3 64 bits cores, 6 instructions per cycle, 3.5Ghz) for a more general CPU (Probably a PowerPC 970) for mantain the cost low and fight against PS3.

Thats a pretty retarted theory. If the 3 core idea was underpowered, why do you think a "more general" cpu would be better, lol.

I agree as well. I have my doubts the CPU and GPU are the reasons behind why Microsoft has decided not to announce Xbox 2 at CES and possibly at GDC. There a few possible reasons:

1. To keep Sony and Nintendo in the dark until the official unveiling. This allows them to show off a finished console and final games and ship them shortly after the unveiling.

2. DVD drive, hard drive and backward compatibility haven't been decided yet.

3. They're not releasing it this year.

4. Not enough games are going to be ready for a launch this year.

5. Microsoft has decided they're not ready to end the life of the Xbox so soon due to the profits received from Halo 2. Maybe this is the reason why next-gen games are speculated to come at a higher premium(>$50)?

I'm sure there are a few others, but seriously doubt the CPU and GPU have changed from their initial plans. Does that mean we will see what was described by the leaked documents( 3 dual core CPUs)? No, not at all. I'm still not convinced the leaked documents are completely legit.

Tommy McClain

 

[Phil]

I think a high possibility is that Microsoft noticed that it is too much of a challenge getting positive support for an early Xenon launch while the PS2 market is nearing its most lucrative point, as pointed out in this post back a page (might have been missed).

Perhaps they have changed their minds and are willing to launch less in advance if it means they could get better support and a more impressive software lineup, along with presumably better hardware.

 

[one]

The most probably is that they canned the idea of the Custom Xenon PowerPC (3 64 bits cores, 6 instructions per cycle, 3.5Ghz) for a more general CPU (Probably a PowerPC 970) for mantain the cost low and fight against PS3.

Since the leaked spec is merely a leaked one and not at all confirmed, it can't be a reason to hold the announcement.

My theory:

1. Some crucial software demos are not yet finished (no blue screen!! )

2. Needless to cite the leaked spec, the actual hardware spec is not much impressive, or lacks functions such as backward compatility or HDD (if their hardware is something so powerful, they'd brag about it as long as possible to generate free hype)

3. They have stunning cards up their sleeves, and are waiting for the chance to burst the floodgate. For example, $199 console price, support from famous Japanese developers, the real name of the new console etc. - and of course, how small it is!

4. Some say they don't reveal much about Xbox 2 at this stage as the Xbox 1 has a momentum now, but I don't think it can be a reason, for if MS really feels the need of the success in the next Xbox no matter what happens, then they can't spoil it for the Xbox 1.

5. Delay of the console release date because of a production problem or a spec bump. But can they miss 2005 holidays?

Anyway, I don't think it's a good idea of MS to show Xbox 2 at the E3 for the first time, as it may be eclipsed by the Nintendo announcement. Instead they should run a private event only for the announcement, before E3 - but it's a bit risky as the PS3 premiere event will be in March. MS can't show it after E3 because they can't waste the PR at E3. So I guess MS is in a kind of PR deadend now. They should have announced Xbox 2 at CES and should have had a head start in the PR, IMHO. Why they didn't do it is a mystery to me, and my theory is what I wrote above.

 

[one]

I agree as well. I have my doubts the CPU and GPU are the reasons behind why Microsoft has decided not to announce Xbox 2 at CES and possibly at GDC. There a few possible reasons:

1. To keep Sony and Nintendo in the dark until the official unveiling. This allows them to show off a finished console and final games and ship them shortly after the unveiling.

2. DVD drive, hard drive and backward compatibility haven't been decided yet.

I agree about CPU/GPU. Whether they adopt HD-DVD or not can be another reason. But I doubt "keep Sony and Nintendo in the dark" as they seem to have their own edges. Sony is the current market leader, and Nintendo has the Revolution FWIW. But I agree it's a good idea to ship the new console shortly after the unveiling. Look Mac Mini and iPod Shuffle - those Mac fans rushed to the Apple Store the day they were unveiled at Mac World as Apple could produce those units beforehand. The problem is, does Microsoft have such great fans, without Halo at the launch? Or will they have a spiritual cousin of Halo-super-longseller-at-launch at the Xbox 2 launch?

 

[wco81]

Instead they should run a private event only for the announcement, before E3 - but it's a bit risky as the PS3 premiere event will be in March.

Gamespot seems skeptical about a playable PS3 at E3. Quotes an SCEA person as saying they've not announced anything about that.

If there's no playable PS3 at E3, maybe no PS3 premiere in March?

 

[one]

Instead they should run a private event only for the announcement, before E3 - but it's a bit risky as the PS3 premiere event will be in March.

Gamespot seems skeptical about a playable PS3 at E3. Quotes an SCEA person as saying they've not announced anything about that.

If there's no playable PS3 at E3, maybe no PS3 premiere in March?

Well that's usual corporate speak - they can't announce anything before they officially announce the next generation system itself

 

[pahcman]

Those 'popular sales influence' games quoted are weak grounds. Some are avail mulitplatform, some have good sales alternative, some losing popularity and even questionable. Tekkan!? ...

There really nothing wrong with Xbox esque lineup, even for Xenon. Halobox is over exagerated. Ok, not as large in eastern games like PS2, but good enough since days of SNES-Gens. Dont be a case of distanced impressions like Xbox triggers misunderstanding again.

Big Konami title? Winning Eleven next?

 

[cthellis42]

Those 'popular sales influence' games quoted are weak grounds. Some are avail mulitplatform, some have good sales alternative, some losing popularity and even questionable. Tekkan!? ...

There really nothing wrong with Xbox esque lineup, even for Xenon. Halobox is over exagerated. Ok, not as large in eastern games like PS2, but good enough since days of SNES-Gens. Dont be a case of distanced impressions like Xbox triggers misunderstanding again.

I think you need to slow down and piece your message together better. That's one of the least-discernable string of comments I've run across in quite some time.

 

[AzBat]

Perhaps they have changed their minds and are willing to launch less in advance if it means they could get better support and a more impressive software lineup, along with presumably better hardware.

Very possible and more likely than some of my suggestions.

Since the leaked spec is merely a leaked one and not at all confirmed, it can't be a reason to hold the announcement.

My theory:

1. Some crucial software demos are not yet finished (no blue screen!! )

Very possible. LOL

2. Needless to cite the leaked spec, the actual hardware spec is not much impressive, or lacks functions such as backward compatility or HDD (if their hardware is something so powerful, they'd brag about it as long as possible to generate free hype)

I can understand that point of view, but given their existing products and momentum, I don't think they would hype even if it was better than the leaked specs.

3. They have stunning cards up their sleeves, and are waiting for the chance to burst the floodgate. For example, $199 console price, support from famous Japanese developers, the real name of the new console etc. - and of course, how small it is!

That was like one of my ideas too. They really do need to fix their problem Japan ASAP. Maybe they ship first in Japan in May and wait till late fall to release in the US. This helps out Japan and gives the US a little more time to Xbox1 in the US where it is still doing better than the other regions.

4. Some say they don't reveal much about Xbox 2 at this stage as the Xbox 1 has a momentum now, but I don't think it can be a reason, for if MS really feels the need of the success in the next Xbox no matter what happens, then they can't spoil it for the Xbox 1.

I'm not sure I understand you here. I can definitely see how it could spoil Xbox1 here in the US. Especially considering if Microsoft and other companies are still planning on releasing new games and supporting it for another year or so after Xbox 2 ships.

5. Delay of the console release date because of a production problem or a spec bump. But can they miss 2005 holidays?

I doubt we're to a point where Microsoft would know of any production problems. I could understand the spec jump though. Whether or not they can miss the holiday 2005 season is a little complicated. Launching at the same time as the other 2 could be brutal, but then again they're not totally alone this holiday season(PSP) either. Provided they have the games, I can't see how Microsoft would pass up this holiday season. Either way, I bet it's not an easy decision for Microsoft if they're contemplating it.

Anyway, I don't think it's a good idea of MS to show Xbox 2 at the E3 for the first time, as it may be eclipsed by the Nintendo announcement. Instead they should run a private event only for the announcement, before E3 - but it's a bit risky as the PS3 premiere event will be in March. MS can't show it after E3 because they can't waste the PR at E3. So I guess MS is in a kind of PR deadend now. They should have announced Xbox 2 at CES and should have had a head start in the PR, IMHO. Why they didn't do it is a mystery to me, and my theory is what I wrote above.

I agree somewhat. CES was definitely a more fitting show than say GDC. Unfortunately it's timing wasn't all that great. I don't think Microsoft needs to worry specifically about Nintendo at E3, but instead the combination of them and Sony/PS3. That coulde definitely ecclipse them. But only if Microsoft isn't done with Xbox 2 or it won't show up till 5 or 6 months later. A seperate PR event before GDC or E3 won't be too risky. I'm sure they could get as much coverage had they announced during the shows. Maybe they got Bill Gates, Steve Ballmer, or Peter Moore to be the keynote speaker at E3? Maybe they were waiting on E3's decision on that before deciding whether they should spill the beans at GDC?

I agree about CPU/GPU. Whether they adopt HD-DVD or not can be another reason. But I doubt "keep Sony and Nintendo in the dark" as they seem to have their own edges. Sony is the current market leader, and Nintendo has the Revolution FWIW. But I agree it's a good idea to ship the new console shortly after the unveiling. Look Mac Mini and iPod Shuffle - those Mac fans rushed to the Apple Store the day they were unveiled at Mac World as Apple could produce those units beforehand. The problem is, does Microsoft have such great fans, without Halo at the launch? Or will they have a spiritual cousin of Halo-super-longseller-at-launch at the Xbox 2 launch?

Good question. Maybe that's the hold up? I also agree with the idea to ship right after the announcement. It doesn't allow consumers to get distracted with something else. Bad thing is Sony might do the same with PSP at E3 too.

Tommy McClain

 

[Fodder]

It's the belief of many on this forum that games like Halo 3 and many other big Xbox games will lure people into getting Xenon, which I'm sure will have some effect one way or the other. On the other hand, how many people are likely to go out and buy a Xenon for Halo 3 if they already didn't give a damn about Halo 1&2 on Xbox in the first place? And the same applies to all other Xbox franchises as well. If they effectively want to attract more sales by PS2 supporters, they effectively have to give them the kind of software that they want. There are quite a few 'million sellers' on PS2 this generation that can be considered "hardware-movers"... starting with Final Fantasies, Metal Gear Solids, Grand Theft Autos, Gran Turismo's... there are many reasons why people buy into the PlayStation brand.

Good post Phil, but you assume MS and Nintendo are going to sit back and let Sony keep the ~5 franchises they've ridden on this generation for themselves. Rockstar's exclusivity contract for GTA is finished, and I seem to remember them making it pretty clear they wouldn't be signing the same sort of deal again. I've heard whispers around of Squenix going more multi-platform as well. Both FF and MGS seem to be waning in popularity (whether that's to do with game quality, consumer wants or a changing demographic is open to discussion), it seems the 'in-demand' titles right now and perhaps for next generation are going to be the Western-style offerings - Halos, GTAs, GTs (Japanese dev, but the racing-sim is a Western game). Nintendo experienced this effect this generation, and next gen it may well hit Sony with the shock that several of their potential killer-apps are 5 years late.

I think everyone expects Xenon to do significantly better than Xbox did, and while I doubt it'll beat PS3, it should be close enough to entice many more developers to go multi-platform. I can't see either MS or N securing many 3rd-party big-franchise exclusives, but I expect we'll also see quite a few less on PS3.

Loads of rampant, opinionated speculation there, but that's my take on things.

 

[Wunderchu]

http://www.xbox2-news.com/comment.php?comment.news.139

direct link: http://news.spong.com/x?art=8378

 

[Lazy8s]

The Xbox2 announcement is being held back as long as conceivable in order not to cut the original Xbox off as it builds from its #1 sales spot in the biggest market during the critical holiday shopping season to the peak of its product cycle. And by the time the Xbox2 is announced, Microsoft's new platform will have had the longest incubation period for developing launch tools and games.

 

[Sonic]

I'm pretty sure it already lost that spot Lazy.