Possibility of no Xbox2 Announcement at GDC or March

[Phil]

IMO it looks like Microsoft is not trying to get tangled up in a hype war, in which two or more companies hype their product without actual evidence to support what their claiming. If they really let out the bag at E3 by surprise, showing off an already complete and nearly launch ready product, I'm wondering how people will react to something they're not prepared for.

Also, lets say Sony announces PS3 while Xenon's appearance is basically fully playable with finished design and everything. Given that I suspect PS2/PSP to have quite a lineup at E3 as well... how will consumers react to the situation:

- Xenon launch before Christmas 2004
- PSP/PS2 great lineup until early 2005 (Final Fantasy XII, GT4: Online, various PSP titles...)
- PS3 launch in mid/late 2006

I have no doubt that Xbox supporters will buy a Xenon at launch... but how will the rest fare? And how will it fare with those that are PlayStation supporters and only own that one console? After all, this is the market Xenon is fighting for in order to seek a greater marketshare...

 

[AlNom]

That's a fair possibility too. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[Wunderchu]

more news on this topic:

http://news.teamxbox.com/xbox/7546/Xbox-2-Expected-to-Debut-at-E3-GDC-Unveiling-Unlikely

 

[Mythos]

True, but if Microsoft is able to show off the final design, games, announce pricing and ship the console 3 or 4 months after E3, then it won't be so reactive compared to Sony and Nintendo. In fact, it could look the other way around. Whether or not they're doing that I'm not sure. I already assumed that if they were shooting for a holiday launch, they would have already announced by now. Maybe they're trying to keep Sony and Nintendo on their toes?

Cool.

But you've gotta think that Microsoft are going to miss some good opportunities to hype up their console before hitting E3. Specially if their goal is to get out late this year. IMO, I think they missed an opportunity at CES 2005. People where anticipating some news and they did'nt say anything at all. That would've got the ball rolling!

If Microsoft doesn't say anything about Xenon at GDC 2005 then whatever advantage (Hype) they would've have hitting at E3 2005 would have the air sucked out of their full announcement. Given that Nintendo/Sony would definitely have some hot stuff to show at E3.

IMO, Microsoft at this point shouldn't be waiting for others if their launching late this year. Some scenerios: What if Nintendo/Sony specs are better does Microsoft wait longer to up grade Xenon and launch later? Another scenerio- Say Microsoft waits and they decide to up their Memory/Clock higher to be closer within range of Nintendo/Sony. The competition launches later and ups their specs.

 

[Inane_Dork]

And how will it fare with those that are PlayStation supporters and only own that one console? After all, this is the market Xenon is fighting for in order to seek a greater marketshare...

Early adopters are usually the more hardcore, and I don't think there's much overlap between the hardcore and PS only markets. I think of the latter as being fairly mainstream. Maybe I'm wrong though.

If history holds true, MS will sell about as many X2s as it can get into shops. I think the PS2, Xbox and GC launches were like that in North America, anyway. Then the long spring/summer drought takes over...

 

[Phil]

Inane_Dork,

The whole stance on launching Xenon early has a few reasons:

1.) Xbox financially is a disaster
2.) popular belief that Sony gained too much of a headstart by launching 18 months (?) in advance

While point 1.) is fairly understandable, I'm more interested in point 2.), which I don't necessarely disagree with. Lets recap some facts at this point:

• PS2 went on sale in Japan only in march of 2000
• PS2 sold 1 million units in less tha 2 weeks (Japan only)
• After 7 months, 3.52 million units were sold (Japan only)

If we disregard Japanese sales and start by 0 assuming a worldwide launch as of 21st of November 2000 (Europe launch)...

• ~3 million PS2 units sold after 1 months (2000/12/31)
• ~6.5 million PS2 units sold after 4 months (2001/03/23)
• ~11.5 million PS2 units sold after 7 months (2001/06/30)
• ~16.5 million PS2 units sold after 10.5 months (2001/10/10)

Basically, by the time Xbox went on sale in the US, Sony had shipped 20 million of consoles worldwide. If we disregard the early Japanese launch, than it'd be 16.5 million units with a 12 months time advantage.

Ultimately, this is the headstart Microsoft is refering to - a 16.5 million difference in just about a year. Those 16.5 million are also certainly NOT just hardcore and early adopters - and at the end of the day, Microsofts early launch is there to snatch some of those sales that PS2 profited from in its launch year. A 6 to 12 months gap before PS3 launches is certainly something - though I remain sceptical that this strategy will ultimately work out due to those potential buyers being aware that a next PlayStation branded console will be following shortly [a brand they already have supported and know what they can expect].

If Xenon's early launch only manages to attract "early adopters" and hardcore gamers, then an early launch WOULD BE a failure, a flawd strategy since they would likely have those buyers [probably Xbox owners] anyway, regardless of the launch window. The way I see it, the early launch is targeted at casuals - those very 16.5 million that bought a PS2 within its first year.

To make things worse for Microsoft, I see PSP as part of their strategy of holding their supporters together in an attempt to keep them waiting for PS3. Indeed, I don't see a PlayStation supporter like myself buying a brandnew PSP and then getting a Xenon to go with it. Knowing a PS3 isn't that far off anyway, I would also rather take a "wait and see" approach to see what Sony has to offer before going with another brand - a wildcart so to speak. And even those that won't buy a PSP [the majority I'm guessing], given the right software on PS2 [Final Fantasy XII] and even to those there wouldn't be much reason to rush a Xenon purchase. Perhaps if I had more money, but I doubt this is the case with most console buyers, seeing that the majority of the market is a owner of 1 console only.

I really see why Microsoft wants this early launch.... I'm not even sure if there's anything else they can do at this point to give them good chances later on. IMO, a closer launch neck at neck would be better since they won't be fighting against hype and mindshare but with actual content. An early launch IMO really won't give them any big sales by those PS2 supporters they're targeting... people will most likely wait & see or be playing their Final Fantasy's XII and other big hitters I'm expecting to see coming soon.

:?


BTW; PS2 sales number were taken from
http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html

 

[Sonic]

Dave, will you be at GDC?



Microsoft should announce something at GDC. It doesn't have to be actual unveiling of the hardware, but it could be shots of games but no video. This would allow for the industry to build up a slow hype for the coming months into E3. MS could release little bits of info here and there and piece by piece. A blurry picture will begin to form and rumors will be abound in most gaming publications and websites. People will be talking all over about what it will be like. The hype has already started and it is slowly being built up over a two month (I think, right?) period that gets everyone itching for the real deal. The anticipation will be so great by the time E3 rolls around MS just launches a huge blitz for Xenon/Xbox 2 and unveils it and five AAA games with graphics that wow the entire world. Microsoft shows off what Xbox Live will be like with Xbox 2 and we all have our mouthes drueling over it. The actual console is a design that people around the world and within the industry are thankful for. It is unique and will stand out from other electronics on your entertainment stand but it also blends in so nicely. It accentuates it. The controllers are no longer big and bulky, they aren't as heavy as a Boeing 747 and every button is analog and it can be told just form pushing them in. The games are announced by so many different dev teams and publishers that the hype just explodes with Xbox 2 frenzy.

That's just a small picture I painted of how Microsoft should orchestrate things. If they follow that path then it is up to the other two to actually stop it from happening. One tech demo from Sony could be the trick, but then again I get th efeeling that the real hype for PS3 is some time to come.

 

[nelg]

Inane_Dork,

The whole stance on launching Xenon early has a few reasons:

1.) Xbox financially is a disaster
2.) popular belief that Sony gained too much of a headstart by launching 18 months (?) in advance

Perhaps an earlier launch would also give MS an advantage by locking up developers giving less time for them to work on PS3 games that will follow shortly.

 

[jvd]

If Xenon's early launch only manages to attract "early adopters" and hardcore gamers, then an early launch WOULD BE a failure, a flawd strategy since they would likely have those buyers [probably Xbox owners] anyway, regardless of the launch window. The way I see it, the early launch is targeted at casuals - those very 16.5 million that bought a PS2 within its first year.

I wouldn't really call those who bought the ps2 in the first year casual .

THey just aren't as hardcore . I would say those are the older hardcore or the younger hardcore on a budget .



But 2 things will happen with an early xenon launch


1) a fixed amount of time being the only next gen console on the market . This will

a. Give all them all the hype nad news coverage for that christmass
b. Get alot of people who are buying systems that year as gifts with its graphics

2) Depending on when the ps3 launches they can lower thier price

3) if ps3 and the new nintendo system launch around the same time they will both be fighting each other and nintendos add campain will hurt sonys

4) they could hopefully have a very strong line up by the time the ps3 launches and with whatever tech advantages the ps3 has , it can negate them by having the longer dev time for the system

5) they can have a very strong period of sales with little ad money spent. saving the onslaught for when the ps3 actualy ships

 

[wco81]

If J. Allard is just going to talk about XNA again at GDC, what's the point? They did that last year and then hyped XNA for the rest of the year. Would be redundant, no?

And why didn't they talk about Xenon at CES? So they could talk about Media Center which was already a shipping product? And some peeks at IPTV?

That CES presentation seemed like a backup presentation. Not really new info. or significant future products.

They'd be competing for attention at E3 with both Sony and Nintendo, who will be showing their next gen systems. For some reason, MS doesn't want the stage to themselves?

These companies are all going to have press conferences the day before the official opening. That is when they will lay out their cards. Who goes first? Who goes last?

The hype is going to come fast and one after the other. I think any one of the 3 companies would have a better chance to get better coverage if they announced something earlier where they didn't have to compete for attention.

If MS does wait until E3 and they do launch the product this year, they would seem to be putting all their eggs in one basket.

 

[Sonic]

jvd, I like my idea a lot better. I think if they wait to spend the cash for when PS3 comes out on advertising it will be too little too late. They need to start the hype relatively soon and just make it explode at E3. It might be a damn expensive campaign, but they will be able to use it effectively. Up until the time Xbox 2 launches later this year, assuming it will, then the hype needs to just keep getting amped. MS needs a powerful launch because if their userbase is even 10 million by the time PS3 arrives then they will probably still trail a distant second to Sony. Hype will get people talking about it and how great of a machine it is. It would be best for MS if Sony remains silent (for the most part) at E3 and shows maybe a tech demo or unleashes specs. If MS is able to slowly trickle the hype and launch it full force at E3 then it has a fighting chance. Just keep the hype going until the launch and once the launch comes then a massive party in NY, LA, Miami, Seattle, Philly, Chicago; just about everywhere. Then after the launch keep the marketing going and keep the hype coming for the next wave of games. Give people a reason to buy an Xbox 2 and not wait for PS3 when Sony finally starts the hype of its machine.

There is no time to be wasted. Just go at it. MS needs to do it the smart wya, not just before the PS3 launch. It needs to do it starting in March and don't let it calm down until PS3 arrives.

 

[jvd]

If J. Allard is just going to talk about XNA again at GDC, what's the point? They did that last year and then hyped XNA for the rest of the year. Would be redundant, no?

Sony dropped the 1tflop bomb awhile ago and hyped the cell tech all last year and are still doing so through this year .

Both companys are just building hype. You don't just chat it up once or twice , u keep chatting it up for as long as possible .

Its like a summer blockbuster . They not only hype it up months in advance but they put a big blitz the week before it releases and then continue to hype it for the next two or three weeks .

And why didn't they talk about Xenon at CES? So they could talk about Media Center which was already a shipping product? And some peeks at IPTV?

Ces is not as big as the other shows and they most likely wanted more hype for the media center which may be a big part of the xenon

They'd be competing for attention at E3 with both Sony and Nintendo, who will be showing their next gen systems. For some reason, MS doesn't want the stage to themselves?

Why would they want to get attention at a smaller show and let the leading company get attention at the bigger show aimed at gamers ?

They will want to blitz against sony and perhaps tweak the system a bit before the announcement . Its really going to be sonys ball to drop at e3 .

The hype is going to come fast and one after the other. I think any one of the 3 companies would have a better chance to get better coverage if they announced something earlier where they didn't have to compete for attention.

Bingo , letting sony have e3 to themselves would be a huge mistake . NOt only that but ces would have given them what 3 months or 4 months to tweak the ps3 , add more ram or up the clock speed to compete with the xenon .

If MS does wait until E3 and they do launch the product this year, they would seem to be putting all their eggs in one basket.

If ms has a playable system with a handfull of good games they will steal the show and have a steller launch .

It seems like sony will just have specs and mabye a few demo boxes on the floors looping some video and a few big game annoucments .

Looks like ms will have playable systems with a large amount of playable games and some big game announcements

 

[GwymWeepa]

jvd, I like my idea a lot better. I think if they wait to spend the cash for when PS3 comes out on advertising it will be too little too late. They need to start the hype relatively soon and just make it explode at E3. It might be a damn expensive campaign, but they will be able to use it effectively. Up until the time Xbox 2 launches later this year, assuming it will, then the hype needs to just keep getting amped. MS needs a powerful launch because if their userbase is even 10 million by the time PS3 arrives then they will probably still trail a distant second to Sony. Hype will get people talking about it and how great of a machine it is. It would be best for MS if Sony remains silent (for the most part) at E3 and shows maybe a tech demo or unleashes specs. If MS is able to slowly trickle the hype and launch it full force at E3 then it has a fighting chance. Just keep the hype going until the launch and once the launch comes then a massive party in NY, LA, Miami, Seattle, Philly, Chicago; just about everywhere. Then after the launch keep the marketing going and keep the hype coming for the next wave of games. Give people a reason to buy an Xbox 2 and not wait for PS3 when Sony finally starts the hype of its machine.

There is no time to be wasted. Just go at it. MS needs to do it the smart wya, not just before the PS3 launch. It needs to do it starting in March and don't let it calm down until PS3 arrives.

I think its advantageous to keep quiet for now, and perhaps at GDC. I don't think they want to upset casual gamers who have just bought an Xbox...they'll hold off until e3 to spill all the beans (I could be wrong of course). In a way they could ride on the hype of ps3 and revolution, everyone gets in a frenzy for next-gen graphics but gamers will have only 1 option this holiday for those amazing looking titles...and that's Xenon.

 

[jvd]

jvd, I like my idea a lot better. I think if they wait to spend the cash for when PS3 comes out on advertising it will be too little too late. They need to start the hype relatively soon and just make it explode at E3. It might be a damn expensive campaign, but they will be able to use it effectively

I dunno .

Here in the states if you put out a new system for x mass. You will get massive publicity just by launching .

YOu will be on every news show with them saying how its the hot new system for the year . You will get coverage when the systems are hard to find .

THe print magazines will be eating it up like mad . Maxim , stuff , times and newsweek will all have articles about it .

So they wont really need a huge ad campain . I'm not saying don't run comercials . I"m saying don't hit with the 500million dolar compain just yet . Wait for the month or two before the ps3 launch and throug hthe first few months of it being out to blitz the air waves .


Ms really only needs 10 million systems or so by the time sony puts out the ps3 to screw sony .

That will almost assure that the third party companys code for the xenon and then port to the ps3 .


They could put out a big named tittle or two around the ps3 launch to further take away the ps3s thunder .

 

[Sonic]

10 million isn't enough especially since within one yuear of the PS3 launches it will probably have sold at am uch faster rate and also 50% more than Xbox 2 total sales.

If anyone bothered to read mypost I said to hype small around GDC/March. Then in May/E3 just unveil the thing with an explosion.

You know what, the Dreamcast was the hot ticket too. And it had a great launch, too bad the hype surrounding it wasn't enough to save it. That was a whammy on SEGA's part.

 

[wco81]

Ten million in one year or less would be very impressive.

That's way more than the Xbox has sold or is selling now, even with Halo2.

IBM must be reserving the high clock-speed, multicore PPC chips for MS instead of Apple.

 

[Inane_Dork]

If J. Allard is just going to talk about XNA again at GDC, what's the point? They did that last year and then hyped XNA for the rest of the year. Would be redundant, no?

The target audience at GDC is game developers. What is MS doing that's targetted towards them more than XNA? Now that a year has passed, MS probably has a lot more concrete things to show and say about XNA. More implementation, less vision.

Of course, X2 is also very much related to what MS is doing about game developers, but I'm just giving reason for why XNA is exactly what to expect to see.

And really, if you can't infer anything about the X2 from the XNA material, you should be ashamed.

 

[Sonic]

I'm referring to 10 million worldwide. If it is 10 million in North America then that is more than impressive, that would be an amazing feat.

 

[wco81]

Yeah but at a keynote, you talk vision, not implementation.

It's the developer tech support people and evangelists who talk implementation, not the exec.

Is Allard actually writing XNA? Or is he just a "visionary" exec?

He's the one who sold Gates on the Internet right?

 

[Phil]

Nice ideas Sonic!

The biggest flaw in Microsofts strategy remains the software in my eyes. As a playstation owner and supporter, I simply WILL NOT be interested in anything Nintendo or Microsoft has to offer if it's just the same as this generation. There's a reason PS2 has it's phenomenal lead. How will an early Xenon launch with the same software/support make any difference if people will be waiting for [insert big PS2 3rd party games] that already was a reason for them buying a PS2? What difference would HALO3 make on Xenon, when the majority of PS2 didn't give a damn about Halo 1&2 on Xbox?

What Microsoft needs isn't a "headstart" - they ultimately need the software and name power of those titles that attracted people to the PlayStation brand to be on their console to make a difference. Now if Xenon had Square-Enix titles to be exclusively on their system... I'd definately would have to consider a purchase. As long as the software and reasons I bought a PlayStation branded console remain on PS3, I won't have any reason to buy into a Xenon first. I'm sure I'm not alone in my thinking.

The question then remains, how will Microsoft gain the support of those big name titles that graced the PS2 to be on Xenon? Well, an early launch won't to it IMO.. I just don't see publishers jumping to Xenon because it's the first next thing out while there are millions to be made on 100 million userbase with relatively cheap development - especially knowing that its successor will be coming out in little less than a year anyway that will likely sell like crazy.