Pachter's 2008 hardware sales forecast

[cloud9]

Eh? The majority of gamers couldnt care less about the online service, and certainly not enough to pay for it.

What MS have done is corner the hardcore market, and its those gamers who place a strong emphasis on Live!

Pachters predictions are based on what he thinks will happen at the time of year when console sales are high. During Q1 they are low.

To me, it seems like XBL is a pretty big deciding factor to many people. I can't tell you how many times I have heard people saying they are going to get a 360 over a PS3, mainly for XBL. Though I suppose such evidence is merely anecdotal.

I just do not see how the current sales trend, added to the 2008 game releases, and possible price cut correspond to an annual drop in sales. Whether or not the 360 is beat by the PS3 and Wii makes no difference, I find it highly improbable that the 360 will actually sell less than last year.

Do you have sales data in EU? The OP mentions not only the US.

Another point is whether Gears of War 2 and GTA4 can match the demand of Halo 3. In addition, hardware sales are relatively affected by the competition. As you mention the lack of software / service hurt PS3 last year, but this year PS3 have several forthcoming big titles and online service improvements, not to mention Blu-ray.

You bring up a good point: there is no Halo this year. However, Halo 3 continues to sell at a steady pace, and as you pointed out, other blockbusters such as GoW2 and GTA4 are on the way. Add this to a $50 price drop on all models, and the console will not only have a bigger/more enticing library of blockbuster games, but also a much more attractive price point. A Pro for $299 would sell like hot cakes, especially if Microsoft packages in a game, and possibly upgrades the HDD to 60GB.

 

[Scott_Arm]

You bring up a good point: there is no Halo this year. However, Halo 3 continues to sell at a steady pace, and as you pointed out, other blockbusters such as GoW2 and GTA4 are on the way. Add this to a $50 price drop on all models, and the console will not only have a bigger/more enticing library of blockbuster games, but also a much more attractive price point. A Pro for $299 would sell like hot cakes, especially if Microsoft packages in a game, and possibly upgrades the HDD to 60GB.

Gears of War 2 will be huge. Maybe not 8 million copies huge, but big.

 

[cloud9]

Gears of War 2 will be huge. Maybe not 8 million copies huge, but big.

Exactly my point. Add this to GTA4 (despite being multi platform), Ninja Gaiden II, Banjo-Kazooie 3, Fable 2, etc., and you have a pretty solid line up.

I believe Microsofts hot little box (pun intended), will be able to hold its own in '08, to say the least.

 

[blakjedi]

Which is the better economy : A $250 BRD player and a $250 XB360, or a $400 PS3?
As well as Gears of War 2...?
Um, why are Sony only trying to sell to existing console owners? What's wrong with the other billions of people in the world who own no consoles?
Yep. That's why it hasn't topped the Spanish and German charts and sold a million copies on preorders, and that's ignoring downloads.
No disagreements with me on that one

A $400 PS3 is only valuable if that specific library and no XBL are also valuable because as far as multiplats are concerned the xbox still leads in sales....
I think PS3 is focusing on trying to sell a PS3 to anyone who wants a quality BRD (which it is as I own one for that purpose also)... because that window is open.

But once they arent the only BRD game in town with all the hot the features, I guarantee sales reated to that aspect, which is what is keeping it afloat as of now, will lag and at that time it will have to rely on its library which keeps getting better but still isnt outstanding much less better than than the 360's. Motorstorm, Uncharted, Ratchet and Clank, Resistance and Devil May Cry were supposed to each be category killers but so far that hasnt happened.

I bank on LBP to be best selling game for PS3 this year because it has no real analogue on any other system and is a visual treat.

Hmm will MGS 4 beat Gears of war 2 in sales? Possibly. Gears of War took 1 year and three months to reach 5 million in sales... COD4 on xbox 360 alone took only 6 months.. of course the difference is that Gears drove sales of X360 in 2006! I do not doubt that Gears could rival GTA4 for sales this year based on the time of year its released. MGS will more appropriately battle SC5 in sales.... Other than maybe GTAIV and SSB I fully expect Gears 2 to be the best selling game this year... period.

For a nice forward looking perspective on the racing genre and how devs themselves see it go here: http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9150&Itemid=51

Spain? Germany? = how much market?

I wont bother with the last comment.

 

[patsu]

But once they arent the only BRD game in town with all the hot the features, I guarantee sales reated to that aspect, which is what is keeping it afloat as of now, will lag and at that time it will have to rely on its library which keeps getting better but still isnt outstanding much less better than than the 360's. Motorstorm, Uncharted, Ratchet and Clank, Resistance and Devil May Cry were supposed to each be category killers but so far that hasnt happened.

It is not as simple as that. For one, PS3 will likely remain the best and affordable BR player for some time. It is the fastest and most stable player to date, partly because the studios will test their content more with the PS3.

Secondly to stay competitive, it will also drop in price over time and increase its functionality in parallel (DTS-MA, Portable Copy and with the recent iPhone integration SDK, who knows what). The only problem they need to pay attention to is ease-of-use.

As for the game library, to each his own. I don't find the PS3 game library inferior at all (It is very well balanced). Many of its original promises are starting to show, so I wouldn't worry about PS3 performance in the long run.

In fact, I wouldn't worry about both Xbox 360 and PS3 performance in the long run. There are some holes in both's strategies but there are smart and experienced people behind them to tweak their plans and execution.

 

[liolio]

There is a problme with GTAIV while MS will have extra content, the casual guy who would want to buy on 360 won't enjoy the online experience.
The casual guy is unlikely to pay 4euros per month.
So I'm not sure that the extra content will offset this huge down side for MS.

 

[Scott_Arm]

There is a problme with GTAIV while MS will have extra content, the casual guy who would want to buy on 360 won't enjoy the online experience.
The casual guy is unlikely to pay 4euros per month.
So I'm not sure that the extra content will offset this huge down side for MS.

What huge down side?

I agree that casual players will not pay for the extra content, and I know I most likely won't. I'd be more likely to pay for extra multiplayer content.

 

[Zassk]

I recall that Peter Moore (before he left) stated that 60% of XBox 360 owners are online. That is a lot of people who have access to the GTAIV DLC - more people than own a PS3.

 

[patsu]

Are all 60% able to play online games ? I thought only the paying ones can ? Or is the DLC for single player only ?

Sorry, have not been following GTA threads.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

As I understand it the DLC is for the campaign, being extra story modules, and that's available to all Live accounts.

 

[patsu]

Ah I see, they are trying to use the revenue to fund more growth (I assume the DLCs will be paid by the players until it becomes free after some time ?). Also cultivate more positive relationship with existing customers.

Sony would make less money from GTA then, but interests on GTA should be high on both platforms. Follow up patches should still be possible.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Ah I see, they are trying to use the revenue to fund more growth (I assume the DLCs will be paid by the players until it becomes free after some time ?). Also cultivate more positive relationship with existing customers.

Sony would make less money from GTA then, but interests on GTA should be high on both platforms. Follow up patches should still be possible.

Interest will be massive on both platforms. Both consoles will be very important for this game. I full expect this to be the biggest selling game released this year. I wish more companies doing multiplatform games would go the route of Capcom with Lost Planet and allow online play between PS3 and 360.

Edit: My bad. Lost Planet is only multiplatform between Xbox Live and Windows Live. My stupid fantasy world is now ruined.

 

[patsu]

Yeah, it's either PS3 and PC or Xbox 360 and PC. MS may want to protect their Xbox 360 base by locking down the network. If people can play the same game with the same friends on another platform for free, some may decide to jump ship.

 

[AzBat]

Exactly my point. Add this to GTA4 (despite being multi platform), Ninja Gaiden II, Banjo-Kazooie 3, Fable 2, etc., and you have a pretty solid line up.

Don't forget Halo Wars.

Tommy McClain

 

[liolio]

You didn't catch what I said:
For a casual gamers who is really unlikely to pay the gold subscription, the 360 version is not more insteresting no matter how much extra content you add there is no on line.

We had a discussion sometime ago about the live and I really think that as more and more casual gamers enter the market segment shared by the 360 and the ps3 the more the gold live subscription will hurts MS.
I still agree with myself...
Ms has to go with per games subscription or quota say 4 hours/ month (arbitrary number here)=> free illimited=>4
Ms also add more advantage to the gold live subscription to make it worse
But live cost is clearly an huge issue as more consumers are about to jump in (and that psn become better).

 

[AlphaWolf]

You didn't catch what I said:
For a casual gamers who is really unlikely to pay the gold subscription, the 360 version is not more insteresting no matter how much extra content you add there is no on line.

We had a discussion sometime ago about the live and I really think that as more and more casual gamers enter the market segment shared by the 360 and the ps3 the more the gold live subscription will hurts MS.
I still agree with myself...
Ms has to go with per games subscription or quota say 4 hours/ month (arbitrary number here)=> free illimited=>4
Ms also add more advantage to the gold live subscription to make it worse
But live cost is clearly an huge issue as more consumers are about to jump in (and that psn become better).

Using your logic you'd think cod4 would be a better seller on the ps3 than the 360. It's not. The single player games such as DMC4 and AC have actually done relatively better on the ps3 than multiplayer games. Perhaps because a lot of the people who want MP find live worth its price.

<edit> and casual doesn't mean they don't have the money for something like Live, it just means they don't spend as much time playing. The number of casuals who are going to buy a console specifically for GTAIV probably isn't that huge either.

 

[liolio]

There's still a huge gap in installed basebetween the two systems.
And owners of both systems are still pretty much hardcore gamers.

You can check my post history I've more affinity with the 360, but now that it's really close to my budget (I'm a casaul gamer, with not that much time and money left after climbing and guitar) I find live subscription bothering.
I'm about to jump in @199 pro pack, but if the ps3 is under 300$ at this time I could with the ps3 as I know I won't pay (more psn has time to evolve).

 

[Zassk]

You don't need Gold to buy DLC. Interest in DLC is orthogonal to interest in Gold.

With 60% of owners being connected to XBLive, that is definitely inclusive of a lot of casual gamers.

 

[betan]

<edit> and casual doesn't mean they don't have the money for something like Live, it just means they don't spend as much time playing.

A person who spends less time playing, spends less time playing online, which means less likely will pay for a monthly or yearly online service.

He is saying, everything else being equivalent, for a casual free online is more attractive than an (unadvertised, unknown) DLC option.

 

[AlphaWolf]

A person who spends less time playing, spends less time playing online, which means less likely will pay for a monthly or yearly online service.

No it doesn't. See world of warcraft.