Pachter's 2008 hardware sales forecast

[DJ12]

I agree with the idea of PS3 getting stronger, but getting 4/5ths of Wii's sales in Japan is contrary to everything seen so far. PS3 is selling a quarter Wii's rate. There must be a transforming game to catapult PS3's take-up. I guess MGS4 will do well, but I doubt it'll have enough to move 1 million new PS3s. Surely many buying PS3 in Japan now have an eye on MGS4? I'd like to know his justification for the ascendency of PS3 in Japan, and which titles or services are going to push it into the mainstream.

LBP, Home, MGS 4, Tekken and Gran Turismo are all out this year and of course Final Fantasy may get released in Japan before the year is out.

Some of these are big sellers (FF will probably sell a million PS3s the day it comes out ) and LBP and home will no doubt have Japanese interest piqued like they have the rest of the World, we've already seen some Japanese adverts pushing Home capabilities and it's not out for a good few months yet.

Wii is due for some slow down though, I am certain of that. When they run out of smart idea's and everything starts getting old, people will get bored of it. As it stands now, the only really good games on it are Nintendo ones which has been Nintendo's problem since they killed off the SNES. They will not maintain the Wii on their own for it's entire life cycle.

 

[Scott_Arm]

People keep saying the 360 is going to die down now that Halo3 has come and gone, yet Halo3 has sold 8 million copies and there are something like 18 million sold worldwide and sales since Halo3 was released have remained high and steady. I'd say there's a lot more interest in the 360 than Halo3.

 

[DJ12]

To add something needed on to the end of your post Scott.

"...... in America"

360 is practically dead in Austrailia now according to retailers, it was DOA in Japan and only in the UK is the 360 even keeping up with PS3 sales in europe (although they remain lower every month, the price cut put it roughly on par with PS3 sales last month)

The problem is people like Patcher take a global view and as history has shown, the majority of Americans only care about whats happening in the US.

 

[Scott_Arm]

To add something needed on to the end of your post Scott.

"...... in America"

360 is practically dead in Austrailia now according to retailers, it was DOA in Japan and only in the UK is the 360 even keeping up with PS3 sales in europe (although they remain lower every month, the price cut put it roughly on par with PS3 sales last month)

The problem is people like Patcher take a global view and as history has shown, the majority of Americans only care about whats happening in the US.

That may be true, but it doesn't matter where you sell them, as long as it's selling and moving software. And half of the 360 sales are done outside of the USA if that 18 million worldwide is correct.

 

[DJ12]

I think it's pretty much certain that the figure is incorrect, way more than 50% of sales have been in the US for 360. It's not a big deal anywhere else. There might be somewhere between 1 and 2 million in the UK, but nowhere else has it gotten anywhere near that mark.

For example, places like Spain and Portugal had more PS3s sold than 360s in total about a month after the PS3 was released.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I think it's pretty much certain that the figure is incorrect, way more than 50% of sales have been in the US for 360. It's not a big deal anywhere else. There might be somewhere between 1 and 2 million in the UK, but nowhere else has it gotten anywhere near that mark.

For example, places like Spain and Portugal had more PS3s sold than 360s in total about a month after the PS3 was released.

John Schappert said they've sold 18 million worldwide at GDC. Even though he's obviously going to spin things in Microsoft's favour, I'm more inclined to believe he's roughly in the ballpark of the real number. We know the USA sales have been around 10 million units, so that's still a lot of units worldwide.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think it's pretty much certain that the figure is incorrect, way more than 50% of sales have been in the US for 360. It's not a big deal anywhere else. There might be somewhere between 1 and 2 million in the UK, but nowhere else has it gotten anywhere near that mark.

2 million in the UK.

 

[betan]

The biggest unpredictable factor on 360's near future is advertisement.

On that subject, MS is taking its time to push GTA4.
I'd think they would start to show something by now.

 

[DJ12]

From various websites, I think they are pushing the 360 version by subsidising free gifts rather than heavily advertising it.

You can get gifts from just about all the online shops for the 360 version, and none for the PS3 version.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Surely to move hardware, MS ought to be advertising the game in the media as coming to XB360 for only $xxx and with exclusive content? Offering free gifts is incentive to get the XB360 version over the PS3 version if you own both consoles, but how many people are going to choose a platform based on the freebies that come with one title?

 

[betan]

From various websites, I think they are pushing the 360 version by subsidising free gifts rather than heavily advertising it.

You can get gifts from just about all the online shops for the 360 version, and none for the PS3 version.

Good luck if that's all they will do, but I seriously doubt it unless there are some legal issues with Sony.

 

[thatdude90210]

The "360 dead in Australia" comes from a very questionable source. Looks like smarthouse.com.au makes up controversial stuff to generate hits.

Edit: the author of the smarthouse article that mentions 360 being dead in Australia, David Richards, hates MS. Oh great, his stuff gets repeated over various forums as fact.

 

[Tap In]

yea, the PS3 shows a sign of life by selling similarly in NA to 360 for two months and all of the FUD comes out of the woodwork again saying 360 is dead in the rest of the world

 

[DJ12]

PS3 has been outselling 360 in the WORLD (ie not just America) for more than just 2 months.

I am not surprised to see it's irrelevant to most people on here though.

EA, now Patcher, both equally wrong in suggesting PS3 was going to outsell the 360 this year, yet both seemingly backed up with 3 months of sales figures WORLDWIDE. Funny that.

 

[Scott_Arm]

PS3 has been outselling 360 in the WORLD (ie not just America) for more than just 2 months.

I am not surprised to see it's irrelevant to most people on here though.

EA, now Patcher, both equally wrong in suggesting PS3 was going to outsell the 360 this year, yet both seemingly backed up with 3 months of sales figures WORLDWIDE. Funny that.

There's a big difference between saying PS3 is outselling the 360 worldwide and saying the 360 is dead outside of North America.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

There's also so little real data for supporting any views, such remarks are pretty pointless. I dare say some people are taking VGChartz figures as fact ignoring the fact that there are no hard numbers for many of those Rest of World territories. All we actually know is NA numbers, Japan, and the occasional figure for an EU nation.

 

[blakjedi]

When the other dedicated BRD players come out later this year with ethernet ports so that they are updatable, offering 2.0 profiles ... and a $250-$300, the boost that PS3 is receiving from being the best BRD available (which is the bulk of the PS3's surge because there is NOTHING in their game library which warrants any significant boost at this time) will disappear. E3 hasnt arrived so we dont know whats in store for 2008 or beyond on the 360, we havent seen Gears 2 which is the shooter series next closest to being a tentpole after Halo (apologies to RFROM and Killzone). MGS may sell well...but the question is - is it enough to make those who own a 360 or Wii buy a PS3..? Not the other way around. Racing as a genre is failing... so GT5 is interesting but not really significant...

the OP and subsequent posts are wrong on so many levels its incredible.

 

[DeadlyNinja]

There's a big difference between saying PS3 is outselling the 360 worldwide and saying the 360 is dead outside of North America.

Well, I'm not saying the source is correct, but what else does the 360 have outside of America? The numbers seem to indicate it's not doing very well in Europe and blind man can see it has absolutely no freaking chance in hell in Asia. Though honestly, even if it is true, there's going to be very little impact on the 360 even if it does die in Aus.

I don't know why people like bringing up analyze predictions. Hey, somebody pay me thousands of dollars a year so I can pull numbers out of my ass! Heck, I can do it for free.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Well, I'm not saying the source is correct, but what else does the 360 have outside of America? The numbers seem to indicate it's not doing very well in Europe and blind man can see it has absolutely no freaking chance in hell in Asia. Though honestly, even if it is true, there's going to be very little impact on the 360 even if it does die in Aus.

I don't know why people like bringing up analyze predictions. Hey, somebody pay me thousands of dollars a year so I can pull numbers out of my ass! Heck, I can do it for free.

I have no idea. I honestly don't follow the numbers that closely. I read the NPD threads a bit when they get released. My thinking is still that all three consoles this generation are going to be a success for their respective companies. I have no idea which is going to be crowned the "winner" and don't really care either. I'll probably end up with all three consoles once the PS3 has some games I want.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Well, I'm not saying the source is correct, but what else does the 360 have outside of America? The numbers seem to indicate it's not doing very well in Europe and blind man can see it has absolutely no freaking chance in hell in Asia. Though honestly, even if it is true, there's going to be very little impact on the 360 even if it does die in Aus.

I don't know why people like bringing up analyze predictions. Hey, somebody pay me thousands of dollars a year so I can pull numbers out of my ass! Heck, I can do it for free.

Do you have any numbers for Asia outside of Japan?

The 360 is still the leader in LTD in many markets aside from the US. The ps3 having currently stronger monthly sales isn't that significant from a developer perspective. They are looking at install base.