Pachter's 2008 hardware sales forecast

[Rangers]

Really?

Strange as in you can't find a logical explanation?

Because I can.

I think the reasoning is fairly obvious. But then again, I'm an analyst myself (not in this industry) so what might seem obvious to me might seem off the wall to others.

The only issue I have with his claims is that he's dealing with two unknown factors, both of which are keystones to the analysis.

That is the price point of both the 360 and the Wii.

The price point of the PS3 can be reasonably estimated, IMO.

The price point of both the 360 and the Wii cannot be, because of the market position and financial health of both MS and Nintendo.

Is he making these forecasts predicted no price drop on the Wii and a $50 price reduction on the 360?

Both Nintendo and MS have the ability to tremendously undercut the PS3. Working in concert, they could bury they PS3 whenever they wanted to, providing (of course) that they were able to work together in price fixing (OMG! Illegal!)

Nintendo has the ability because they've been profitable from the start and have the awesome ability to now sell their product at ZERO profit.

MS has the ability because they've always had it, and can sustain losses if need be.

If the projection is that the Wii continues to sell at its current price because of supply problems, and the 360 isn't going to significantly reduce it's price, then the prediction has some validity. (In terms of being a valid prediction, not in terms of being absolutely correct.)

But if MS were to slash their prices $100 across the board, and Nintendo were to slash their price $50 (and maybe reduce the price of their peripherals a bit), this analysis goes out the window because the basic assumptions would no longer be correct.

Analysis is always only as accurate as the information that is available at the time of the analysis.

The most important thing to gain from this is that MS needs to move on the 360 pricing and also that the Wii is backing up to the point where they are going to have to move their pricing at some point.

Why would Nintendo drop price on Wii when at least in USA they sell more than they cam make at 250? Doesn't make sense.

 

[Cheezdoodles]

Why would Nintendo drop price on Wii when at least in USA they sell more than they cam make at 250? Doesn't make sense.

Obviously, they would only cut price if their didn't

 

[StefanS]

In 2010, Sony's going to have 55 per cent, Microsoft's going to have 35 per cent and Nintendo 10 per cent, with all three of those having plus or minus five per cent.

I'd say that seems unlikely at this point.

I don't think he's talking about cumulative sales in this context. If he's talking about the annual sales of 2010, he's at least in a somewhat realistic bracket...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I agree with the idea of PS3 getting stronger, but getting 4/5ths of Wii's sales in Japan is contrary to everything seen so far. PS3 is selling a quarter Wii's rate. There must be a transforming game to catapult PS3's take-up. I guess MGS4 will do well, but I doubt it'll have enough to move 1 million new PS3s. Surely many buying PS3 in Japan now have an eye on MGS4? I'd like to know his justification for the ascendency of PS3 in Japan, and which titles or services are going to push it into the mainstream.

 

[Akumajou]

The PS3 is coming into it's own. MS needs to get off their ass and market their product. They've gotten away with good sales the past couple of years by being lazy on the marketing side but that'll hurt bad. However, patcher is an idiiot and I don't put any stock into any of his numbers.

I believe that the only, and I really mean, the only reason XBox 360 has done so well so far is all due to Halo 2 and the people anticipating Halo 3.

With XBox 360 it was easier for the Halo 2 fan who was stuck playing offline due to credit card requirements to get to play their game on XBL and I mean this for pre-GoW and afterwards until Halo 3.

Gears of War and CoD4 have done great for the console, but aside from the latter being multiplatform I just don't feel safe saying they got anywhere close (as of yet) to the level of sales of Halo 3 and GTA4 may affect that greatly however still that is multi.

Even if Microsoft pulls Banjo 3 out or even a new Killer Instinct, it is unpredictable as to how x360 owners will receive those games as the majority of sales are based on military shooters both 3rd and first person and games with somekind of online deathmatch element.

RRoD fears aside I believe that most of the XBox 360 Halo fan/sales have reached their peak last holiday, although CoD4 has proved to be a great distraction on the side and with GoW 2 coming I just don't see more consoles selling or people buying an XBox 360 unless there is a price cut or another big game and GTA4 so far is $20 million dollars worth of doing that.

With Playstation 3 however the mentality is that aside from Blu Ray, PS1 BC, PS2 BC minus 40GB is that here is a console that once cost $600 and is selling for $100+ bucks off, combined with a growing lineup of games and the sleeping giant numbers of gamers who have not yet purchased a PS3 due to GTA4, MGS and Final Fantasy and you have the makings for what everybody was predicting last year, that PS3 would take 2008 and up.

Nintendo Wii will continue to dominate but the comparison with the HD consoles is a different ball game and its one that IMHO Microsoft has already exhausted its chances.

 

[Akumajou]

I agree with the idea of PS3 getting stronger, but getting 4/5ths of Wii's sales in Japan is contrary to everything seen so far. PS3 is selling a quarter Wii's rate. There must be a transforming game to catapult PS3's take-up. I guess MGS4 will do well, but I doubt it'll have enough to move 1 million new PS3s. Surely many buying PS3 in Japan now have an eye on MGS4? I'd like to know his justification for the ascendency of PS3 in Japan, and which titles or services are going to push it into the mainstream.

Ryu Ga Gotoku 3 Kenzan! aka as possibly Yakuza 3 is one of those titles that has so far sold well for Japan, aside from that is that the console did drop in price so alot of people who were not able to get one are starting to.

Yakuza 3 may not seem stellar now but due to its nature I can safely predict that it will have a steady sales for at least the next 8 months.

Then there is the anticipated titles from the PS2...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Even if Microsoft pulls Banjo 3 out or even a new Killer Instinct, it is unpredictable as to how x360 owners will receive those games as the majority of sales are based on military shooters both 3rd and first person and games with somekind of online deathmatch element.

Really? So Guitar Hero, Oblivion, Forza, AC, MUA, and Madden haven't sold, because they aren't shooters with online deathmatch modes?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Ryu Ga Gotoku 3 Kenzan! aka as possibly Yakuza 3 is one of those titles that has so far sold well for Japan, aside from that is that the console did drop in price so alot of people who were not able to get one are starting to.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Yakuza 3 is already out in Japan but PS3 sales still are a quarter of Wii's, no?

 

[betan]

Yeah he doesn't seem to put a whole lot of thought into things sometimes considering it's his business. Sad when amateur message board gurus can point out obvious mistakes he makes.

Fortunately this is not his business.

Pachter's always a little optimistic when it comes to Sony.

If memory serves that wasn't the case for his January NPD predictions.

In Japan, after 3 months in 2008, the PS3 is already over 700k behind the Wii for the year, so Pachter is expecting it to match the Wii for the rest of the year? Right... Gaf is having a good laugh.

Probably so is he.
But really, people should stop taking this guy seriously. He certainly doesn't deserve those threads, and he is not analyzing anything when pulling those numbers out.
To me he looks like an attention whore, who is probably good at what he really does.

Still, I enjoy a good console wars thread as much as the next guy.

Really? So Guitar Hero, Oblivion, Forza, AC, MUA, and Madden haven't sold, because they aren't shooters with online deathmatch modes?

It would be really nice to see shooter sales relative to total software sales, because I don't think "shooter console" labeling is going anywhere soon.

 

[rekator]

Fortunately this is not his business.
It would be really nice to see shooter sales relative to total software sales, because I don't think "shooter console" labeling is going anywhere soon.

You can make the same for PS3 base on the sales of RFOM and COD4.
And this is stronger by the so awaited Killzone 2, but for this one a part is due to other wait.

So, the only conclusion is "Gamers" like Shooters more than others.

 

[Teasy]

i find the wii numbers surprisingly low, NPD +japan == 800k a month, yet nintendo say theyre making 1.8million, where are they all going? sure a lots going to europe but surely not more than the US+japan combined

Firstly there are fluctuations in monthly sales, you can't just look at one month. Especially the holiday seasons when sales become massively inflated compared to other times of the year. Really you want to look at the average sales per month for the whole year, or just total yearly sales vs the number of consoles shipped that year. Also there are more places in the world the just the US, Japan and Europe.

 

[betan]

You can make the same for PS3 base on the sales of RFOM and COD4.

Both of which are destroyed by Motorstorm.
I remember the time 80GB Motorstorm bundle was announced. We were all like "tard pack for PS3".

Seriously though, I suspect the situation for PS3 is not much different than 360, but possibly a little more even.

And this is stronger by the so awaited Killzone 2, but for this one a part is due to other wait.

Killzone 2 is not really anticipated, certainly nothing like MGS4, GT5 or FF13.
If it means anything, that is.

So, the only conclusion is "Gamers" like Shooters more than others.

Early adapters maybe, but I wouldn't say gamers.

 

[dobwal]

It would be really nice to see shooter sales relative to total software sales, because I don't think "shooter console" labeling is going anywhere soon.

First, its a label that doesn't match reality as a number of titles from different genre other than shooter that have sold well on the 360.

Second, a "shooter" console isn't actually a knock and if it a label that truly part of the 360 perception amongst the mainstream its probably driving 360 sales not limiting 360 sales.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

It's funny that about every time the X360 sales dip for a month or two, someone drags the argument out that "everyone who wants an X360 already has one because of ......." insert whatever game.

Like when Gears of War had already come out many here said that Halo 3 wouldn't jump X360 sales because everyone who wanted Halo 3 had already purchased a 360 for Gears of War. False.

The X360 went on to do even better the next year ('07).

Now people are saying that Halo 3 pretty much grabbed all the people who want an X360 and now even GTA won't boost X360 sales. False.

Watch and learn. The X360 will probably sell 10 million units this year. Great games out and coming out and a price drop will see to that.

 

[betan]

First, its a label that doesn't match reality as a number of titles from different genre other than shooter that have sold well on the 360.

I assume you haven't seen the post I was replying.
Typically when this discussion is raised, people start listing million sellers and released software list, but none of them represents the size of the shooter market. Hence my question.

So, I don't think reminding good selling non-shooter titles is necessary at this point.

Second, a "shooter" console isn't actually a knock and if it a label that truly part of the 360 perception amongst the mainstream its probably driving 360 sales not limiting 360 sales.

In case you are still talking to me, I have no judgment regarding the effects of this perception on 360 sales or it's quality as a gaming console.
Even if 360 is indeed a shooter heavy console, long term consequences are difficult to predict.

 

[Zassk]

It's funny that about every time the X360 sales dip for a month or two, someone drags the argument out that "everyone who wants an X360 already has one because of ......." insert whatever game.

Well, that's the thing. The X360 has not had a sales dip this year. Sales are up over last year - regardless of whether the PS3 is beating it lately.

To read this thread, you'd think X360 sales had plunged off a clifff.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Yakuza 3 is already out in Japan but PS3 sales still are a quarter of Wii's, no?

I believe ps3 sales jumped a bit with its release (to about 1/3 of the wii), however I don't think it's nearly as big an ip outside of Japan.

 

[Akumajou]

Really? So Guitar Hero, Oblivion, Forza, AC, MUA, and Madden haven't sold, because they aren't shooters with online deathmatch modes?

Assasins Creed??, really SG, that title has a controversial hype that led to its sales, the type of hype other games, far better games never got I highly doubt that a series will maintain the momentum even if the first game got lucky like it did and still is...

Madden and Guitar Hero are guarranteed sellers, I am not denying that they did great on X360 given its install base for the first two years and will continue to do so, I just don't feel they are system sellers.

The rest, they also did great but IMHO I gain don't feel people were going in droves buying consoles just to play these games, I feel that the people who had already purchased the console in anticipation of a certain title bought these games as to add variety.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Yakuza 3 is already out in Japan but PS3 sales still are a quarter of Wii's, no?

You are correct, however since Yakuza 3 came out in March my comment was specifically about steady sales (not stelar sales) as it will take time for the word to get out even in Japan, but the game has features that appeal to alot of gamers in that country, one of those features is the dating simulator feature, but this time in a real time 3d action, RPGish game.

And this is stronger by the so awaited Killzone 2, but for this one a part is due to other ]wait.

I feel that Killzone 2 was one of those titles that sparked controversy and conversation ammong skeptical/jaded gamers because of its E3 2005 trailer and experienced something of a reasurance in faith because of the E3 2007. That title, along with ResistanceFoM and R2 exist as a way to tell FPS fan that the PS3 can now do these types of game well enough to challenge and hypewise exceed the competition.

So, the only conclusion is "Gamers" like Shooters more than others.

For whatever reason, perhaps Halo 2 2004 sales, military based first person shooters and third person shooters are all the rage since XB360 came out, I did not want to label the console as being the shooter console but I hope I am wrong when sales are tallied up or genres are given percentages.

It's funny that about every time the X360 sales dip for a month or two, someone drags the argument out that "everyone who wants an X360 already has one because of ......." insert whatever game.

The problem is that the most anticipated title is undisputedly Halo 3, all other titles that do great will and the console will still sell, no one implied that the console will stop selling, however price cuts and GoW2 will help the console in the immediate future.

Like when Gears of War had already come out many here said that Halo 3 wouldn't jump X360 sales because everyone who wanted Halo 3 had already purchased a 360 for Gears of War. False.

The X360 went on to do even better the next year ('07).

Now people are saying that Halo 3 pretty much grabbed all the people who want an X360 and now even GTA won't boost X360 sales. False.

Watch and learn. The X360 will probably sell 10 million units this year. Great games out and coming out and a price drop will see to that.

I don't believe anyone would say anything like that about Halo 3 or GTA, even people with an agenda or paid shills would not say something crazy like those titles won't boost sales when even the older GTAs did great in XBox 1.

 

[London Geezer]

I want some of what he's having!

Seriously though, PS3 will keep going up, but predicting that it will have 55% market to MS's 35% and especially Nintendo's 10% in 2010 is just......... i dont even know how to call it.
It's a bit like Hillary Clinton suggesting that Obama could be her vide-president, when she's the one behind him!

 

[Lucid_Dreamer]

All you have to do is look at some of his past predictions.



I'd say that seems unlikely at this point.



That's about as wrong as you can be right there. WoW has continued to grow into more than 10 million playing now.

I believe he has gotten more right than wrong. In a game of probability, you WILL be wrong on things. It's the nature of that business. Getting more right than wrong is what keeps him where he is.

I, also, think he got at least the past 3 or 4 in a row correct.

I believe that the only, and I really mean, the only reason XBox 360 has done so well so far is all due to Halo 2 and the people anticipating Halo 3.

With XBox 360 it was easier for the Halo 2 fan who was stuck playing offline due to credit card requirements to get to play their game on XBL and I mean this for pre-GoW and afterwards until Halo 3.

Gears of War and CoD4 have done great for the console, but aside from the latter being multiplatform I just don't feel safe saying they got anywhere close (as of yet) to the level of sales of Halo 3 and GTA4 may affect that greatly however still that is multi.

Even if Microsoft pulls Banjo 3 out or even a new Killer Instinct, it is unpredictable as to how x360 owners will receive those games as the majority of sales are based on military shooters both 3rd and first person and games with somekind of online deathmatch element.

RRoD fears aside I believe that most of the XBox 360 Halo fan/sales have reached their peak last holiday, although CoD4 has proved to be a great distraction on the side and with GoW 2 coming I just don't see more consoles selling or people buying an XBox 360 unless there is a price cut or another big game and GTA4 so far is $20 million dollars worth of doing that.

With Playstation 3 however the mentality is that aside from Blu Ray, PS1 BC, PS2 BC minus 40GB is that here is a console that once cost $600 and is selling for $100+ bucks off, combined with a growing lineup of games and the sleeping giant numbers of gamers who have not yet purchased a PS3 due to GTA4, MGS and Final Fantasy and you have the makings for what everybody was predicting last year, that PS3 would take 2008 and up.

Nintendo Wii will continue to dominate but the comparison with the HD consoles is a different ball game and its one that IMHO Microsoft has already exhausted its chances.

I agree.