WMS Expects At Least 32% Growth for January Game Sales

[TheChefO]

WMS forecasts that Sony sold through 300,000 PS3s and that Nintendo sold through 500,000 Wiis, both with an attach rate of 1.5 software units

"We think that PS3 sales will recover once consumers are made aware of the supply situation, and think that investors may be positively surprised by the hardware sales figures in January," he said. "We have seen little advertising at the Sony level for the device, and no advertising from retailers. We expect advertising to begin soon, and think that consumers will be drawn to stores in greater numbers as software is released for the PS3. We also expect Blu-ray to drive sales to movie fans, as more Blu-ray film content is released."


As for the 360, cutting back slightly on production may allow Microsoft to drop the 360's price in the future, Pachter explained.


"In our view, the Xbox 360 manufacturing reduction is more likely due to an oversupply situation in 2006. We believe that Microsoft was determined to gain a first mover advantage over Sony, and the company's strategy dictated that it deliver 10 million units by year-end. It accomplished this goal, with the consequence of oversupply at retail. Because Xbox 360 production costs are likely still above the wholesale price, Microsoft loses money on each unit produced. By slowing its manufacturing, the company is able to allow component prices to further decline, positioning itself to lower its loss per unit (or to even generate a profit) on future Xbox 360 hardware produced," Pachter said.


He added, "Further, should Microsoft choose to cut the price of the Xbox 360 in the future, it would be required to provide price protection to the retail channel. This price protection would impact its earnings in the quarter of the price cut, and the impact would be magnified if the retail channel is oversupplied. By slowing its manufacturing, Microsoft has given itself greater financial flexibility to cut price on the Xbox 360 in the future. Unfortunately, many investors read Microsoft's decision as a reflection of poor demand. We think that the January NPD hardware sales figures will demonstrate to investors that the Xbox 360 demand situation is healthy."


NPD results for January should be released this Thursday. Stay tuned.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=15218

 

[RobertR1]

Is this US or world wide?

 

[infinity4]

Is this US or world wide?

should be US, i would be surprised if only 500k wii and 300k ps3 are sold throughout january

 

[Avon_Implosion]

not bad, for either consoles

 

[Carl B]

300k would be exactly in line with my prior estimates for PS3 in Jan, but... I would prefer some NPD numbers. Shouldn't we be getting them today?

 

[TheChefO]

300k would be exactly in line with my prior estimates for PS3 in Jan, but... I would prefer some NPD numbers. Shouldn't we be getting them today?

Thursday according to the report.^

 

[Carl B]

Thursday according to the report.^

Bolded for a reason no doubt!

My bad there.

 

[Paul_G]

300k would be exactly in line with my prior estimates for PS3 in Jan, but... I would prefer some NPD numbers. Shouldn't we be getting them today?

Those NPD slackers! We had the results for the busiest month of the year by 11th Jan, and January's, one of the slowest months for sales, won't be here till Thursday?!

 

[Rangers]

Those NPD slackers! We had the results for the busiest month of the year by 11th Jan, and January's, one of the slowest months for sales, won't be here till Thursday?!

The results are always two weeks after the reporting period end.

In this case, they had to shoehorn an extra week in there (something about accounting for an extra week every few years, because they normally capture 364 days a year, so the extra day must be made up with an extra week every seven years), it's a 5 week reporting period, so an extra week for the results.

BTW, NPD is usually a downer, and Pachter usually overestimates things. Buyer beware. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like, 280k wii, 160k Xbox360. In other words lower all around..

Remember last month everybody was predicting 1m Wii's, and it ended up at 600k. Although, that's probably why Pachter is overpredicting January, the leftover December supply of Wii's.

 

[TheChefO]

The results are always two weeks after the reporting period end.

In this case, they had to shoehorn an extra week in there (something about accounting for an extra week every few years, because they normally capture 364 days a year, so the extra day must be made up with an extra week every seven years), it's a 5 week reporting period, so an extra week for the results.

BTW, NPD is usually a downer, and Pachter usually overestimates things. Buyer beware. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like, 280k wii, 160k Xbox360. In other words lower all around..

Remember last month everybody was predicting 1m Wii's, and it ended up at 600k. Although, that's probably why Pachter is overpredicting January, the leftover December supply of Wii's.

Interesting regarding 5 weeks for Jan'07 NPD numbers.

Also a bit funny seeing the words 'leftover', 'supply', and 'wii' in the same sentence. :smile:

I predict 400-500k for ps3, same for Wii and 250-350k for xb360.

 

[22psi]

Higher than expected numbers can partly be attributed to an extra week for NPD. Also Pachter's estimates have always been on the high side.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Highest january sales ever was for PS2 in 2005 - 490,000 units according to NPD.
At $500/600, and with the current software lineup, I think it's more reasonable to look at PS2's first two january sales as a reference: in 2001, it has sold 248K while probably supply limited, and in 2002 it has sold 360K.

I wouldn't expect it to go above 400K, and wouldn't be surprised to see sales as low as 200K either.

 

[TheChefO]

Highest january sales ever was for PS2 in 2005 - 490,000 units according to NPD.
At $500/600, and with the current software lineup, I think it's more reasonable to look at PS2's first two january sales as a reference: in 2001, it has sold 248K while probably supply limited, and in 2002 it has sold 360K.

I wouldn't expect it to go above 400K, and wouldn't be surprised to see sales as low as 200K either.

Agreed history suggests it would not be above 400k but the ps3 was supply limited in Nov/Dec and Sony mentioned they shipped 1 million by the end of the year. This supply saturated the market and now the inventory is significantly cleared at retail. Most places I've gone recently have not had ps3's on the shelf. Assuming they shipped nothing additional in January and just cleared the shipped inventory from last year that would be ~300k. I'm guessing they had another shipment or two in January though.

 

[one]

We have seen little advertising at the Sony level for the device

WTF! :smile:

Because Xbox 360 production costs are likely still above the wholesale price, Microsoft loses money on each unit produced.

So not all people believe that iSupply breakup figure.

 

[scooby_dooby]

nevermind

 

[TheChefO]

Another analysts posts their prediction:

Lazard: 25-30% Sales Rise for January

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4734&Itemid=2