Oh Crap!!!! More Bad North Korea News. :(

N

Natoma

Veteran
You know, while we're all debating Iraq and whether to go to war and whatnot, North Korea is apparently a hair's breadth from deciding to tear up the armistice that ended the Korean War 50 years ago because they think Washington is on the verge of attacking them. Link here.

I wish Bush and his team would put as much energy into fixing the Korean problem as they have into putting us into war with Iraq, because frankly the country that flaunts their nukes and says "we'll sell them to the highest bidder" scares the bejeebus outta me far more than Saddam Hussein (though the idea of Saddam Hussein with nukes is pretty scary in and of itself).

I just don't understand why the Bush Administration seems to be taking a "Ho Hum" attitude of "They're just spouting off at the mouth again," like the senile old family member who curses you every time you visit, towards N. Korea. They've got nukes, they've walked out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and they're about to walk out of the Armistice that ended the Korean war. They've also threatened quite openly to use their WMDs, and have a HUGE standing army.

How can I possibly get psyched up for Iraq's murky dangers when the clear and present danger that Korea poses is being all but ignored by the Bush White House? I really am perplexed by this turn of events, and quite frightened at what it means for the stability of the world.
 
Conventional wisdom says N Korea is bluffing for bribes from the US. They are spouting their mouths off b/c they have an impending economical crisis thats about to explode in the politicians faces (possibly in the form of a civil revolt).

Thats why they want solo talks with the US.

The second intelligence shows them arms trafficing WMD for real, however its guarenteed the US will invade. Hence deterrence is used against them effectively since they are in principle more rational than Hussein and wouldn't risk such a course of events (they know that they will lose to an allied invasion).

US is calling their bluff though, which is somewhat dangerous. They want economic and political reforms before money is guarenteed. (How do you deal with a blackmailer?)
 
Natoma,
It's a bluff. It's politics. North Korea is trying harder and harder to get our attention by acting more and more insane *on purpose*, but the US is saying that they won't be manipulated into negotiating under threat. NK knows that a big attack on SK or the US would be the end of their regime. And this it not the first time they threatened to pull out of the armistice, they tried that under Clinton as well. The bellicose assertions that come out of their news agency are to be heavily discounted. This isn't the first time in history that they have acted like this. Even SK is effectively ignoring them.

Moreover, much of the logic is devoted to trying to split the US and SK relationship and get the US out of the DMZ. They have basically said to the US "don't get the UN involved, don't even get SK, China, or Japan involved, this is only between us two" which is ridiculous, because obviously they threaten Japan and SK much more than they threaten us, and no doubt, the proliferation issue threatens the whole world.

It's like a guy who robbed and bank and is holding hostages and says that he doesn't want to talk to police negotiators, but wants to talk to the Bank president.

There's not much Bush can do about NK, his hands are tied. One thing I can tell you is, we aren't going to play blackmail again. So just what do you want the US to do? Attack them? Pay them billions of dollars? Sign a bogus non-aggression pact under threat which is a smokescreen for what they really want? (a big payoff)

The issue is now with the UN Security Council. Let us see what the UN will do. NK has already announced that if they do anything about it at all (like say, impose sanctions) they will consider it a declaration of war.

The reason we are dealing with Iraq and not NK is because there is no real military option for dealing with NK, and there are no real sanction issues either. "Juche" idealogy :) assures that. Iraq on the other hand, is a torture chamber for Iraqi citizens, and there is the very real possibility that military action in Iraq now (as opposed to later) could be successful.

NK was allowed too long a time to go unchallenged, we should have taken our their regime a long time ago. Now there are 10,000 artillery tubes pointed at the DMZ and Seoul make war with NK nearly impossible. And without theater missile defense, NK can cower Japan into submission as well.

The only option now is to wait out the North Korean storm and see if they back down. Most of the other options available are not good.
 
Wow, that site is one of the worst designed sites I've ever seen.

#1 navigation is strange, next page button in weird place.

#2 Entire site is made with images, not text (e.g. the paragraphs on the page are rendered into images) No resizing, no reflow, no accessibility, no cut-and-paste, no "find text" will work. Google will never be able to index this site.

#3 One of the translations they offer is Esperanto!! Talk about useless waste. :)

Of course, the content is bizarre, as it is with parsing most radical Stalinist thought, but I really got a kick out of the US casuality figures they claim. 400k soldiers, 12,000 planes, 500 warships, etc. Not just off by a little, but some by orders of magnitude. Hell, 500 exceeds the total number of ships the US had in the theater, which means they sunk the entire US navy, plus replacements. (US navy claims only 5 ships lost)
 
Actually, I disagree with Fred and Democoder. The diffrence (IMHO of course) is just as much cultural as it is political. North Korea lost face and must make up for it in the worlds eyes, especially those of the South and Japan, when Buch made his comments about Kim being a scum-sucker or whatever termonology he used. The Axis of Evil speech, unlike what everyone states, did very little to hurt the North's resolve - rather it was the personal assaults by the American and a few Europeans who caused Kim Jong IL to loose face.

This is why the North isn't open to an international or multilateral debate. They want the Americans to bend in a one-on-one conversation and save face, this is an important concept for them and needs to be recognized. The idea of 'face' can only be restored by international acts of good (heh, don't anticipate this happening) or the supressor (eg. US) apologizing or giving into demands - which is why they want US <-> NK talks only.

Kim isn't a total retard, he realizes that Unification on the Korean Peninsula is imminent; the North has precious little to bring to the table other than population. But, being the intelligent man he is, he'll position the North as the strong military and population center with a nuclear deterence that will mate beautifully with the industrialized South and create a strong Korea.

Realize the historical significance. Koreans (N and South) are raised with the hundreds, if not thousands of years of Japanese dominence of their race and lands deeply imbeded into their minds. It's perhaps the single greatest aspiration of the Korean people to stand-up and defy the Japanese who have historically ravaged them. Kim Jong IL will prevent this from happening again once and for all with his Nuclear Arm. He doesn't give a fuck about the US, other than to show them international respect and recognition - he wants to surpass Japan.

And this is why the American's are pushing for International support as it turns the world against the North, while allowing the US to not give in to the North's demands - which would be like the US admitting wrong-doing, thus restoring Kim Jong's 'face' or pride.


Beyond this; the situation isn't too dangerous at all. The North is outputting alot of rhetoric, such as how they'd defeat the Americans in a Thermonuclear showdown (Um, alrighty then Kim... not suppose to drink the bong water) or how the Americans are planning an attack on the North (Which the Americans will deny and the North will say it's due to their Military superiority, et al.) or any number of such comments. But, nothing will happen aslong as the situation is as such.

#3 One of the translations they offer is Esperanto!! Talk about useless waste. :)
Click to expand...

I was just talking to a friend at UC - Berkeley last night and this came up. Why does it not surprise me that a language designed with the intention of creating a single form of communication which will end aggression and create everlasting world peace is 'big' at that school? ;)
 
I think it's a mix of things. They are trying to bluff it. But Kim Jong Il is still insane, or at the very least delusional and unscrupulous.

Just saw that China are aiding with food and oil. Should help a little.

Cheers
Gubbi
 
From what I've read the original treaty was between North K and South K., US, China, Japan. North K gives up nuclear program in return for food, oil, and nuclear power plants.

I think North K. is basically hoping to ride the current anti-US feelings for more money and goods. The US is basically being quite on this issue because of China. North K broke the treaty with them as well. I get the feeling the US is waiting on China to make the decision on how to go forward on this.
 
N. Korea is amazing, the people there have no idea of the outside world, the ones that know anything dream of defecting to China, which shows you how bad it sucks there. They have specially made electronics that will not acess outside radio, and TV. Not to mention people dont usually even have those. It is amazing that something so like george orwells vision is actually unfolding there.
 
Deflection said:
I get the feeling the US is waiting on China to make the decision on how to go forward on this.
Click to expand...

"China has briefly cut off crucial oil supplies to North Korea recently in an apparent bid to rein in its unpredictable neighbour after Pyongyang test-fired missiles, diplomats say.

It was the first sign of Beijing appearing willing to use its economic muscle to twist arms in Pyongyang after months of criticism from Washington for failing to do enough to pressure North Korea to curb its nuclear ambitions.

Talk of Chinese pressure on its longtime ally came as a South Korean envoy, national security adviser Ra Jong-yil, headed to Russia and China to restart stalled efforts on a diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

China cited technical problems for the three-day shutdown in March of an oil pipeline running from its northeastern province of Liaoning to North Korea, but the message was clear: behave, a Western diplomat said.


"It was cut for three days after the second missile," the diplomat quoted Chinese sources as saying, referring to North Korea firing a cruise missile into the Sea of Japan on March 10, Pyongyang's second missile test in two weeks."

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/030331/80/dwmxa.html
 
I hope the US has some serious decapatation plans for the leadership of NK. I have no prob in taking out the top 1000 people in the military, you would not believe how nuts they are over there.

There was a documentary on the life in NK. They have building in downtown where noone lives in, the building is only complete on the outside, for people to look at, nothing inside. Almost no one has a car, but there are people who are directing traffic at the air. There is hardly any electricity in the whole country. People walk in straight lines, and turn at 90 degree angles even when they are not watched by anyone. The people there have really been brainwashed.

later,
 
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