Nvidia's 3000 Series RTX GPU [3090s with different memory capacity]

[neckthrough]

<snip>

You're missing my point, but I'll get to that in a moment. You're reaching 3 generations into the past, and down to the $329 bucket ($360 after inflation) to find a card whose percentage contribution to the overall marketshare exceeded the 3070's. Even within that generation, the 980 at $549 ($600 after inflation) is actually closer to the 3070's price bracket. From the survey you linked, that was at 0.64%.

Look, in any case I wasn't trying to claim that the 3070 is some hotshot legendary bestseller. My point was just that the data shows it's reached a respectable number of gamers both in relative and absolute adoption metrics compared to similarly priced cards in recent generations.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

You're missing my point, but I'll get to that in a moment. You're reaching 3 generations into the past, and down to the $329 bucket ($360 after inflation) to find a card whose percentage contribution to the overall marketshare exceeded the 3070's. Even within that generation, the 980 at $549 ($600 after inflation) is actually closer to the 3070's price bracket. From the survey you linked, that was at 0.64%.

Look, in any case I wasn't trying to claim that the 3070 is some hotshot legendary bestseller. My point was just that the data shows it's reached a respectable number of gamers both in relative and absolute adoption metrics compared to similarly priced cards in recent generations.

Or as we've been saying, nothing remarkable. So we've all come around in a circle to agree that it's not bad and it's not great. It's at best average ... or unremarkable. Which at least for me is what I've been saying.

However, if the current mining boom weren't a thing, it might have been a historically good seller WRT the total addressable market.

Regards,
SB

 

[neckthrough]

Or as we've been saying, nothing remarkable. So we've all come around in a circle to agree that it's not bad and it's not great. It's at best average ... or unremarkable. Which at least for me is what I've been saying.

I've been in agreement with you (more or less) that an approximately average/reasonable/unremarkable (pick your favorite middling adjective) supply volume has made its way into gamers' hands, miners notwithstanding. I was countering Tottentranz's claim that "Whatever cards are being produced, they're going directly into miners' hands" and the article claiming they are "barely trickling into the market".

However, if the current mining boom weren't a thing, it might have been a historically good seller WRT the total addressable market.

Might have been. Or it might have been just about average. We don't have (or at least I haven't seen) enough data to infer anything.

To make my stance perfectly clear -- I'm not trying to defend miners. I think mining is a blight on the planet. I'm just arguing because I saw an illogical conclusion drawn from the available data and that bugs me more than it should.

 

[HLJ]

Definitely the demographic that has disposable income to burn - parents.

Especially when they move out...so much time...so much extra cash

 

[Kaotik]

I wonder how many ampere gpu's nvidia sells quarterly? Nvidia did record Q4 where gaming revenue was up 67% compared to previous year's Q4. Q1 was predicted to be slightly better than Q4. Q3 was also huge.

How does Q1 being predicted as better than Q4 work with the fact that at least two major AIBs (Asus, MSI) have stated that they're getting less chips from NVIDIA in Q1?

 

[manux]

How does Q1 being predicted as better than Q4 work with the fact that at least two major AIBs (Asus, MSI) have stated that they're getting less chips from NVIDIA in Q1?

It was the nvidia prediction from their q4 results. How that is one has to ask from nvidia. Lying to investors is a big no no and there hasn't been any indication that situation has changed. Q4 revenue was 5billion. Q1 was predicted by nvidia to be 5.3billion. Of course it could be gaming is going down and some other business unit is going to pick up the "slack"

NVIDIA’s outlook for the first quarter of fiscal 2022 is as follows:

• Revenue is expected to be $5.30 billion, plus or minus 2 percent.

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-fiscal-2021#:~:text=NVIDIA today reported record revenue,for the quarter and year.

 

[HLJ]

Talking about numbers, intel now warns about supply issues due to substrate shortage:
https://wccftech.com/exclusive-dema...-intel-rocket-lake-due-to-substrate-shortage/

/que "blame miners!!!" in 3...2...1

 

[manux]

Talking about numbers, intel now warns about supply issues due to substrate shortage:
https://wccftech.com/exclusive-dema...-intel-rocket-lake-due-to-substrate-shortage/

/que "blame miners!!!" in 3...2...1

This is what I would expect nvidia to also do if the 5.3billion +-2% is not achievable.

 

[HLJ]

This is what I would expect nvidia to also do if the 5.3billion +-2% is not achievable.

I was being sarcastic about Intel + substrate...blaming mining is the new "black"

 

[manux]

I was being sarcastic about Intel + substrate...blaming mining is the new "black"

I wasn't referring to miners. I was referring to nvidia being able to reach the 5.3billion q1 revenue which kaotik was questioning. If nvidia wouldn't be able to reach result they predicted they should issue a warning and keep investors in loop. There are rules publicly traded companies have to follow.

 

[HLJ]

I wasn't referring to miners. I was referring to nvidia being able to reach the 5.3billion q1 revenue which kaotik was questioning. If nvidia wouldn't be able to reach result they predicted they should issue a warning and keep investors in loop. There are rules publicly traded companies have to follow.

I know...so I guess we have to wait and see if any updates are coming ^^

 

[manux]

I know...so I guess we have to wait and see if any updates are coming ^^

There isn't much to wait. Nvidia's fiscal Q1 is feb, march, april. It's almost done. If they had significant issues they should pretty much already have given warning or do it just about now. Otherwise it's too late from legal POV. This is especially true considering how slow the manufacturing process of chips is nowdays. Q2 is whole another thing. We have no guidance for Q2 from nvidia.

 

[Malo]

/que "blame miners!!!" in 3...2...1

It's still vastly the miners fault. Whatever stock trickles into the market is often being appropriated by miners since they usually have far more resources to obtain them than the average joe pressing F5 on newegg.

 

[HLJ]

It's still vastly the miners fault. Whatever stock trickles into the market is often being appropriated by miners since they usually have far more resources to obtain them than the average joe pressing F5 on newegg.

You have numbers?
Everyone is saying this and that...but never any solid numbers.

 

[Malo]

You have numbers?
Everyone is saying this and that...but never any solid numbers.

No I don't have numbers. Mining groups do invest in bots to purchase stock and do have significantly more funds available to buy multiple GPUs for their farms.

If you want to believe that Mr Joe Bloggs visiting newegg each morning before work is managing to get his 3070, at a decent price, and so are all of his ilk throughout the world then ok.

 

[PSman1700]

No I don't have numbers.

Hearsay in other words.

 

[manux]

No I don't have numbers. Mining groups do invest in bots to purchase stock and do have significantly more funds available to buy multiple GPUs for their farms.

If you want to believe that Mr Joe Bloggs visiting newegg each morning before work is managing to get his 3070, at a decent price, and so are all of his ilk throughout the world then ok.

I know many gamers use bots to buy gaming gpu's. I would trust in this more to what linus said than random forum posters. He at least should have some sources. His opinion(linked in previous page) was that most gpu's are going to gamers.

The issue is that many people like me have been stuck work from home, stay home, isolate for past year. Regular people are buying gaming machines in quantities never seen before. Also folks being stuck home cannot spend money to travelling, bar, eating outside,... This saved money translates to being able to afford expensive overpriced gpu's. Do you want to stare wall at home or buy that gaming pc and play cp2077? Want to make those kinds stay quiet instead of screaming and running around, buy expensive pc,...

 

[HLJ]

No I don't have numbers.*snip*

That settles the "value" I attribute to your claim...no arms, no cookies

 

[manux]

So I crunched the number just for fun. ETH hash rate increased with 194501GH/s between jan1-apr1(quarter, 3 months). 3070 produces about 0.062GH/s. Assuming this capacity increase would be all due to 3070 cards that would come to 3.1million 3070 cards being added to pool by miners quarterly.

Another data point. Q4 nvidia gaming revenue was 2.67billion. Let's make some fudgery here. We know from nvidia investor release switch was down and pc was up. Let's lowball and say 2billion of gaming revenue came from selling gpu's. Let's assume nvidia would get average 200$ revenue per gpu sold. This would mean nvidia sold 10 million gpus in a quarter. Price of cards and eth hash rate scale roughly same so we can ignore the more expensive cards and make fairly accurate estimate based on just assuming 3070 cards.

So with above we could say there is supply of 10 million, 3 million went to mining. 7million = 70% of gpu's going to non crypto mining purposes. Of course now that we have some math down it's possible to switch numbers and try to see what happens.

Now, if we assume some eth capacity increase is due to amd cards and also used cards being repurposed then maybe it's not even 3 million new nvidia cards going to crypto per quarter.

I believe even in worst case majority of nvidia cards would be going to non crypto purposes. Probably those deep learning folks are also taking their bite out of the tensor cake.

I feel this math is best estimate we can do based on public data without having sources. One can change the numbers around to figure out the range of possibilities. It's then anyones guess which exact number is right, but at least range of options is understandable. If we combine this with steam data and past knowledge of gpu shipments perhaps the math can be made more accurate.

edit. One would also have to deduct gamers using gpu's to mine when not gaming from hash rate increase. My numbers above assume worst case where no gamer is mining,...

 

[Malo]

That settles the "value" I attribute to your claim...no arms, no cookies

There is no need to be rude, I like to consider this a mature forum. It's all speculation of course since numbers are very hard to come by and I'm merely expressing my thoughts on why I think miners are getting the lion's share.