Nvidia's 3000 Series RTX GPU [3090s with different memory capacity]

[manux]

There is no need to be rude, I like to consider this a mature forum. It's all speculation of course since numbers are very hard to come by and I'm merely expressing my thoughts on why I think miners are getting the lion's share.

After looking at the post above from me do you still feel lion's share is going to miners? I tried to do some math on numbers we know and made some guesses. I find it hard to believe most cards would be going to miners. If you feel so, maybe you could fudge the numbers to direction you feel are more correct.

edit. My numbers are probably pessimistic. I forgot to add component estimating how much of hash rate increase is due to gamers mining when not gaming. My math assumes no gamer mines which is not true.

 

[HLJ]

There is no need to be rude, I like to consider this a mature forum. It's all speculation of course since numbers are very hard to come by and I'm merely expressing my thoughts on why I think miners are getting the lion's share.

You found that rude?
That I did not give any value to pure speculation with no data?
Erhmm...what?

 

[Malo]

I forgot to add component estimating how much of hash rate increase is due to gamers mining when not gaming. My math assumes no gamer mines which is not true.

Yeah that's probably a significant factor. Anecdotally there are gamers here and other forums that have their Amperes sitting there mining instead of gaming, expressing that they are specifically not gaming at the moment due to mining craze. "Miners" includes both organized companies and groups, and the home gamer. The latter we have a new GPU in the hands of a gamer, which is good, but for your calculation purposes it does factor into it I guess.

I'm not sure how you would estimate that though.

 

[manux]

Yeah that's probably a significant factor. Anecdotally there are gamers here and other forums that have their Amperes sitting there mining instead of gaming, expressing that they are specifically not gaming at the moment due to mining craze. "Miners" includes both organized companies and groups, and the home gamer. The latter we have a new GPU in the hands of a gamer, which is good, but for your calculation purposes it does factor into it I guess.

I'm not sure how you would estimate that though.

I think we can just throw numbers around to get a range of sales going to miners. Something from super pessimistic to super optimistic. The concrete numbers we know are the nvidia revenue for q3,q4 and estimate for q1. We also know eth hash rate increase. Hash rate increase gives us about 3.1 million 3070 level gpu's being added to mining capacity during q1 of 2021.

The most pessimistic view I can see is is following. Nvidia makes 400$ revenue per 3070. 2 billion out of nvidia's 2.56 billion dollar gaming revenue comes from selling geforce cards. This results to 5 million cards sold, 3.1 million cards went to mining. This assumes all eth hash rate increase comes from new ampere cards. No amd, no used, no nothing else. So miners took 3.1million, gamers got 1.9million. I see no way of the situation being worse than this from gamer POV.

One could assume some gamers mine and some capacity comes from amd and also used cards. There also is the nvidia mining cards that are already being sold and used(turing based for now, ampere based mining cards are coming out q2). Perhaps more than 2 billion of gaming revenue came out of geforce card sales and perhaps 400$ is too high estimate of revenue per card. As eth price goes up it becomes even more profitable to use also ancient cards to mine so people might be digging up any gpu they can find and mine with them.

 

[Putas]

Nvidia makes 400$ revenue per 3070.

Remove one zero and I might believe it.

 

[HLJ]

The closest I have come to seeing BOM price was this posted on a forum a few years back:

No clue if it is accurate though, but prices has not gone down on BOM since, especially on the GPU itself.

 

[manux]

Remove one zero and I might believe it.

Removing one zero makes the crypto effect to supply 10x less. 10x more gpu's sold while crypto capacity increase will still sit at 3.1million gpu's.

Though the memory alone is probably more than 40$. I believe nvidia sells gpu and memory together.

 

[sonen]

Remove one zero and I might believe it.

Revenue, not profit.

@manux
You might be onto something. At the very least you're getting the order or magnitude right.
120M monthly active Steam users
https://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2021-01-14-steam-has-over-120m-monthly-active-users

1.29% of 120M = 1.5M

 

[Rootax]

You found that rude?
That I did not give any value to pure speculation with no data?
Erhmm...what?

We already had this argument 2-3 weeks ago ? Miners mine with pure willpower ? We know that most AIBs sell directly to big mining groups. We know it because thoses mining groups showed it. We know nVidia do too (a big contract was in the news few weeks ago).

Spéculations about this are not baseless. Believe what you want but it's not because you're out of touch with the mining world that you can dismiss this cause. And you know that hard numbers from AIBs about this will never be public...

 

[manux]

We already had this argument 2-3 weeks ago ? Miners mine with pure willpower ? We know that most AIBs sell directly to big mining groups. We know it because thoses mining groups showed it. We know nVidia do too (a big contract was in the news few weeks ago).

Spéculations about this are not baseless. Believe what you want but it's not because you're out of touch with the mining world that you can dismiss this cause. And you know that hard numbers from AIBs about this will never be public...

That nvidia contract was specific to mining gpu's that are based on turing. Those are supposedly made from defunct chips that are not useful for gaming.

 

[Rootax]

So now "supposedly" is enough You're right (but the point was miners =easy money for gpu sellers, and thet know it).

Anyway, maybe it's posts for the crypto topic...

BTW, have we numbers about the samsung 8nm process ? Things like density, etc, vs TSMC 7nm ?

 

[Kaotik]

So now "supposedly" is enough You're right (but the point was miners =easy money for gpu sellers, and thet know it).

Anyway, maybe it's posts for the crypto topic...

BTW, have we numbers about the samsung 8nm process ? Things like density, etc, vs TSMC 7nm ?

Samsungs 8nm is improved 10nm and offers (calculated) density of 64.4 MT/mm^2
https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-...undry/7442-samsung-10nm-8nm-and-7nm-at-vlsit/

 

[Rootax]

Samsungs 8nm is improved 10nm and offers (calculated) density of 64.4 MT/mm^2
https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-...undry/7442-samsung-10nm-8nm-and-7nm-at-vlsit/

Oh I didn't know this website, thx a lot.

 

[DegustatoR]

BTW, have we numbers about the samsung 8nm process ? Things like density, etc, vs TSMC 7nm ?

GA102 vs N21 is 45MTr/mm^2 vs 51.1MTr/mm^2.
GA100 is 79.4.
"Average/peak" process density is rarely relevant for end products as it can vary greatly between different designs according to their targets.

 

[Putas]

Revenue, not profit.

I know.

 

[CarstenS]

GA102 vs N21 is 45MTr/mm^2 vs 51.1MTr/mm^2.
GA100 is 79.4.
"Average/peak" process density is rarely relevant for end products as it can vary greatly between different designs according to their targets.

Often, the amount of on-die SRAM is driving X-tors/mm² up as well. Another important factor is the design for fast-paths.

 

[PSman1700]

MGS3 with ray tracing, yes please. Community remake using RTX.

 

[troyan]

From nVidia's investor day:
Ampere is the fastest ramp in history. Within 6 months Ampere has twice the share than Turing on Steam and people buying higher tiers:

 

[PSman1700]

From nVidia's investor day:
Ampere is the fastest ramp in history. Within 6 months Ampere has twice the share than Turing on Steam and people buying higher tiers:
View attachment 5404

Yes and thats just NV, the pc gaming market is growing/more intrest.

 

[PSman1700]

NIOH2 screen from Nvidia geforce UK fb page, looks amazing with ray tracing. The amount detail is on another level.