Nvidia shows signs in [2019]

[BRiT]

Oooof. Some lawyers sure love to chase ambulances looking for easy money. Who could have foreseen cryptocurrency market being fickle?

https://hothardware.com/news/nvidia-faces-class-action-lawsuit-cryptocurrency-implosion

A law firm in Los Angeles, California is encouraging investors who lost in excess of $100,000 by pouring money into NVIDIA's stock to contact the agency for participation in a possible class-action lawsuit. It's the position of the complaint that NVIDIA mislead shareholders by overstating its ability to weather the crumbling of the cryptocurrency market, as it pertains to mining with GPUs.

"[NVIDIA] made false and misleading statements to the market. NVIDIA touted its ability to monitor the cryptocurrency market and make rapid changes to its business as necessary. The Company claimed to be 'masters at managing our channel, and we understand the channel very well'. NVIDIA also claimed to the market that any drop off in demand for its GPUs amongst cryptocurrency miners would not negatively impact the Company’s business because of strong demand for GPUs from the gaming market," the complaint states.

"Based on these facts, the Company’s public statements were false and materially misleading throughout the class period. When the market learned the truth about NVIDIA, investors suffered damages," the complaint continues.

As many of you reading this might already be aware, cryptocurrency mining bolstered the demand for GPUs for much of last year. Both AMD and NVIDIA benefited from this to some extent. Even though gamers ultimately suffered for a period of time due to a shortage of graphics cards and inflated prices, the lawsuit doesn't take issue with this.

What the potential class-action suit does take issue with is the steep decline in NVIDIA's share price after the cryptocurrency bubble burst. For the most part, it stopped becoming profitable to mine cryptocurrencies like Ethereum using GPUs towards the end of 2018.

Whether entirely related or not, NVIDIA's share price has seen a precipitous drop over the past few months. The company is currently trading at $133.50, which is down from over $200 in mid-November, and much lower than its high of nearly $300 in early October.

As a result, the Schall Law Firm is inviting shareholders who purchased shares in NVIDIA between August 10, 2017 and November 15, 2018 to contact the firm before February 19, 2019, to participate in the lawsuit and "recover your losses."

 

[nutball]

I love how investors these days feel entitled to make money regardless of their own stupidity. Stock goes up, sell. Stock goes down, sue.

When will the class-action lawsuit bubble burst I wonder? Will we ever see class-action lawsuits against class-action lawsuit lawyers, on the grounds that they're arseholes?

 

[entity279]

When will the class-action lawsuit bubble burst I wonder? Will we ever see class-action lawsuits against class-action lawsuit lawyers, on the grounds that they're arseholes?

That's not a bubble. Legislation allows it, so it will press on till oblivion. There will always be technicalities to exploit sadly.

So one could restrict class actions or lawyers fishing for random customers also by legislation. Question is , would that restriction have some side effects, besides of getting rid of this ridiculous lawsuits? Like getting rid of trials that punish companies genuinely hurting their customers?

 

[Samwell]

If they win this lawsuit against nvidia, it will make earnings calls even more useless. Companys will be even more scared to make any comments on segments, which aren't easy to forecast. In the end this just leads to companys giving less information to investors. Nvidias stock didn't loose 50% because the fundamentals changed totally, but because it's been a total stock bubble which bursted.

 

[MDolenc]

Some quick math: ETH hash rate went from ~90 TH/s in August 2017 to ~290 TH/s in August 2018. At 20MH/s for GTX 1060 that's about 10M GPUs added in a year. Reported NV gaming revenue for Q3 FY 2019 is $1764M. If average NV price for GPU is $100 that makes it 17M GPUs per quarter.
So what am I missing?

 

[CaptainGinger]

A hangover?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Some quick math: ETH hash rate went from ~90 TH/s in August 2017 to ~290 TH/s in August 2018. At 20MH/s for GTX 1060 that's about 10M GPUs added in a year. Reported NV gaming revenue for Q3 FY 2019 is $1764M. If average NV price for GPU is $100 that makes it 17M GPUs per quarter.
So what am I missing?

Are there even any modern NV GPUs under 100 USD? The GTX 1050 averages about 130+ USD and the 1060 averages over 200 USD.

I'd say the average for NV GPUs is likely closer to 400 USD or higher. Granted that's Retail pricing (only looked at Newegg really fast) but retail margins aren't super high for low end GPUs (outside of the Crypto bubble), so NV's cut of that is still going to be over 300+ USD on average.

Regards,
SB

 

[MDolenc]

Are there even any modern NV GPUs under 100 USD? The GTX 1050 averages about 130+ USD and the 1060 averages over 200 USD.

I meant GPU only. But I missed that there's the option that AIBs can get a bundle with memory included. So yeah, my guess work was off and would be hard to refine.
According to JPR 9.9M AIB cards were shipped in Q3 2019 and down 36% year to year.

 

[Deleted member 2197]

January 24, 2019

We showed how artists like Ashlee can work faster giving them more time for creativity when 3D modelling and rendering with an NVIDIA RTX laptop or desktop system.

 

[Kaotik]

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/...idance-for-fourth-quarter-of-fiscal-year-2019

NVIDIA issues revenue warning, down 0,5 billion USD. Apparently RTX cards aren't selling and expected datacenter deals are falling through

• Fourth quarter revenue expected to be $2.20 billion versus previous guidance of $2.70 billion
• Gaming and Datacenter revenue below company’s expectations
• Management to discuss reported financial results on Feb. 14 earnings call

NVIDIA today updated its financial guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2019, reflecting weaker than forecasted sales of its Gaming and Datacenter platforms.

In Gaming, NVIDIA’s previous fourth-quarter guidance had embedded a sequential decline due to excess mid-range channel inventory following the crypto-currency boom. The reduction in that inventory and its impact on the business have proceeded largely inline with management’s expectations. However, deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, particularly in China, impacted consumer demand for NVIDIA gaming GPUs. In addition, sales of certain high-end GPUs using NVIDIA’s new Turing™ architecture were lower than expected. These products deliver a revolutionary leap in performance and innovation with real-time ray tracing and AI, but some customers may have delayed their purchase while waiting for lower price points and further demonstrations of RTX technology in actual games.

In Datacenter, revenue also came in short of expectations. A number of deals in the company’s forecast did not close in the last month of the quarter as customers shifted to a more cautious approach. Despite these near-term headwinds, NVIDIA has a large and expanding addressable market opportunity in AI and high performance computing, and the company believes its competitive position is intact.

“Q4 was an extraordinary, unusually turbulent, and disappointing quarter,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “Looking forward, we are confident in our strategies and growth drivers.

“The foundation of our business is strong and more evident than ever – the accelerated computing model NVIDIA pioneered is the best path forward to serve the world’s insatiable computing needs. The markets we are creating – gaming, design, HPC, AI and autonomous vehicles – are important, growing and will be very large. We have excellent strategic positions in all of them,” he said.

NVIDIA expects its GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin to be impacted by approximately $120 million in charges for excess DRAM and other components associated with the updated revenue guidance and current market conditions.

The company will provide Q4 fiscal 2019 financial results and Q1 fiscal 2020 guidance on its earnings call scheduled for Feb. 14.

 

[Malo]

but some customers may have delayed their purchase while waiting for lower price points and further demonstrations of RTX technology in actual games.

No one could have foreseen that!

 

[Kaotik]

No one could have foreseen that!

To quote a friend (translated):
NVIDIA: Sadly we noticed that some of our customers in fact still have brain functions.

 

[Deleted member 2197]

TSMC Fab 14: Wrong chemical usage renders thousands of wafers unusable for NVIDIA (and others)

By using inferior chemical raw materials, thousands of wafers in a semiconductor factory have become unusable by the world's largest contract manufacturer TSMC. This could also affect chip manufacturing for customers such as Huawei and Nvidia.
...
According to other reports, it is feared that chip production could be impacted by major customers such as Nvidia (graphics chips), Huawei and MediaTek (smartphone SoCs), which manufacture their products at 12 nm and 16 nm at TSMC.

https://www.guru3d.com/news-story/t...-wafers-unusable-for-nvidia-(and-others).html

 

[Deleted member 2197]

MLPerf Benchmark results
December 2018

The first MLPerf benchmark results are in, offering a new, objective measurement of the tools used to run AI workloads. The results show that Nvidia, up against solutions from Google and Intel, achieved the best performance in the six categories for which it submitted.
...
The newly-published results pertain to training ML models. The metric is time required to train a model to a target level of quality. The benchmark suite consists of seven categories: image classification, object detection, speech recognition, translation, recommendation, sentiment analysis and reinforcement learning.

In terms of image recognition, using Resnet-50 v1.5 applied to the Imagenet, data set training with the DGX-2h took about 70 minutes. At scale, using a DGX-1 cluster, training time was reduced to 6.3 minutes. For language translation, training the Transformer neural network in just 6.2 minutes with a DGX system at scale.
...
Google noted that using 1/64th of a TPU v3 Pod, it achieved an image recognition training time of 60 minutes. Object detection with the TPU v3 Pod took 17.8 minutes and neural machine translation took 9.7 minutes.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/mlperf-benchmark-results-showcase-nvidias-top-ai-training-times/

 

[Clukos]

No one could have foreseen that!

It Just Works™

 

[Kaotik]

https://www.techspot.com/news/78548...bout-cryptocurrency-earnings-avoid-stock.html

"We think Nvidia generated $1.95 billion in total revenue related to crypto/blockchain," said Royal Bank of Canada Capital Market Analyst Mitch Steves. "This compares to company's statement that it generated around $602 million over the same time period."

...

According to Steves, measuring the hash rate and calculating the volume of Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies mined from April 2017 to July 2018 reveals that roughly $2.75 billion should have been generated in sales. Nvidia should have captured about three-quarters of that, with AMD getting the rest.

AMD’s earnings forecast, released last Tuesday, backs up this idea. They expect revenue of $1.25 billion, 24% lower than this time last year. Nvidia’s forecast was $2.7 billion, but they recently dropped it to $2.2 billion prompting their most recent stock price troubles. Admittedly, it would be surprising to see Nvidia miss revenue expectations for a single quarter by $500 million because of the crypto hangover, when crypto sales only generated $600 million to begin with.

 

[Davros]

Major Shareholder Abandons Nvidia After Disappointing Year - In a report via PCGamesN,
Japanese Investment company Softbank has officially sold off their entire stock in the company. An investor who was believed to be the graphics card giants 4th largest private investor. It should be noted, for the sake of fairness, that the company had been for well over a year scaling back their investment in Nvidia. With the recent downturn in the company though, and the significant hit to the share price, Softbank is believed to have lost around £2.7bn. To put the share price drop into context we would need to give you some figures. The current Nvidia share price is around $155. In late 2017, however, this was around $290. With a near 50% drop in around 12-months is pretty shocking by any standard.

 

[BRiT]

Buy low, sell high. If anyone believes in their [Nvidia] future they should buy in when it's low.

 

[nutball]

To put the share price drop into context we would need to give you some figures. The current Nvidia share price is around $155. In late 2017, however, this was around $290. With a near 50% drop in around 12-months is pretty shocking by any standard.

So basically, NVIDIA were over-valued because BITCURRENCY, and since then their share price has drifted back towards a more sane valuation?

 

[Alexko]

Perhaps it should be noted that SoftBank now owns ARM. It's not impossible that they'd want to disinvest from NVIDIA in part because they may see the company as their competition.