NVIDIA shows signs ... [2008 - 2017]

link please..

 

Heh, didn't you hear that it's just a big plot to spread FUD through the gullible press until it makes its way to semi-official PR outlets like Digitimes, then to mainstream sites like Tech Report

I'm still trying to wrap my head around Charlie's articles since they seem to contradict each other. The first one postulates that they're trying to avoid retail rebates after a price drop by reducing the amount of inventory on shelves for a short period. However, that's far more palatable than the suggestion in the second article, just a few hours later, that they are pulling the plug forever and ceding the vast majority (segment wise) of the retail market to AMD. When you don't want to play games or you're on a tight budget, buy Nvidia.......

 

So lazy!

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=quarterlyearnings

PS: shouldn't this be in the other thread?

 

I just heard that the last dumb prostitute committed suicide when she found out that others get paid for getting laid

 

Well it is funny but I noticed a big thread on [H] forums the other day with the screaming headline "Is Nvidia seceding to ATI in the high end gaming market?" or something to that effect.

Pretty funny what two months without cards will do to people.

However, I did notice the oddity that GTX285 did not drop in price on newegg from $325-$400 when the 5850 or 5870 either came out. And has not to this day. I wondered if they were waiting for 58XX supply to catch up with demand, but I have this feeling they just arent going to drop the price. Which will mean share down the tubes?

Realistically they would have to come down to $200 if that to be competitive (and it would still be in the same spot as 4890 even then, fast but a generation old and not DX11, so I'm not sure how much it would sell even at $200). They probably wont bother.

 

Sure, if you think AMD can fill market demand in Nvidia's absence. I'm waiting to hear that they've tripled orders for RV870 and broken out the champagne

 

so AMD's (the company) quarterly postings somehow (by some stretch of imagination) turns into ATI losing $$ on their cards, with absolutely no regard to their CPU division ?? Ahh I think I've finally discovered Charlie's Ghost Writer !!

in fact while average selling prices have declined, revenue was up 13% as were shipment of # of GPUs over last quarter.

 

Sigh, they break out the graphics and CPU divisions man. Try reading the whole thing. Or do I need to email you a screenshot?

So was Nvidia's, up 17% actually.

 

lol.. you mean this part:


Revenue:

Computing Solutions:

Q1 2009: -3% Q2 2008: -17%

Graphics:

Q1 2009: +13% Q2 2008: 1%


yeah.. simply saying that because ASPs were lower than previous quarter somehow means that AMD is losing $ on graphics cards sold... thank GOD you're not an accountant.

 

Haha, you have no idea how ironic that is given my professional qualifications. Anyway, no you're looking in the wrong place.

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MTA2Njd8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1

Since I need to draw you a map Page 4. Operating loss of 12 million.

 

Well they made 12 million profit in 2008 according to their annual report, 1 million profit in Q1 2009 and 12 million loss in Q2 2009. Looks like a zero-sum game to me, although little accounting tricks here and there could sving the results notably.

 

So that's what that "sweet spot strategy" is about!

 

You have no idea about economics or you would not be saying and believing these things.

 

So basically, Nvidia has a line of 40nm parts coming to replace GTX260/275/285?

But what is their performance? All google references to those part numbers are months old, and show low end chips...not anything to counter say 5770, am I wrong?

 

Does it make any sense to EOL a product, whose successor will come 3 months later? GTX285 isn't available for 1 month now. GF100 will be available at the end of November (at best).

There's no single mention about cheaper derivates of GF100, which would replace GT200 in terms of performance or price. EOL of GTX285 clearly isn't related to GF100. Different performance segment, different price segment, different timing, different manufacturing process.

 

You forget HD 5xxx development didn´t have time to make profit.
You have to wait to the end of 2009 to do the Math. HD 5xxx will enter for profit on final Q3 and full Q4.
And don't forget the financial problems that the hole world is going on.

On the other side Nvidia never made profit again since HD 4xxx came out. Coincidences.... and probably will stay on red for entire 2009.
Not even in the time of Geforce FX Nvidia run into so much financial problems.

 

I'm sorry, I just can't believe that timing, except for the remote possibility of a very few token cards to reviewers so that they can say they launched in 2009, and I don't think that's likely.

You can't go from such poor yields that you can't show a working card except for a hidden messy prototype, where you don't have a finished card to wave at the press, where you haven't even spoken about gaming products, and then have products in the shops a couple of months later.

What you're asking for is a miracle of execution at a time when Nvidia can't execute and are making something extremely complex. I just don't see how they can go from what they showed us a couple of weeks back to a shipping product in 10 weeks.

 

Yes, it does if NV is loosing money on them and they want to clear the inventory slowly.
Their board partners will have less work now. It seems some companies might jump on AMD train.

 

Does anybody know if Graphics includes IGP?

At the end of the day. If profit from chipsets was more than 12mil then old ATI products are in black in that quarter.

 

Both are being made on the same process, TSMC's 55nm. What are the relative sizes (484mm^2 vs 256mm^2 or so from memory)? How much does high bin GDDR3 cost? (~$3.25 chip @ 1GHz) How much does GDDR5 cost? (~$3.50/3.80 for 1Ghz/1.25GHz respectively). How much is a TSMC 55nm wafer? (~$4000). What do you think yields are for each product? (roughly proportional to the die size at this point of maturity). How many board layers does the G200b use vs the R770? (hint: very dependent on the memory interface width) How much does the PCB cost? (see last Q) How much do the other components on the board cost, like heatsink, fan, VRMs, passive components, connectors etc? (about the same for each card). How much does assembly cost? (more for G200, more components and a more complex PCB, but not by much). How much does packaging cost? How much do add-ins on the package cost, like dongles, cables, CDs, games and manuals? Shipping?

If you look all that up, it is called research. I did it. I then wrote it up, that is called reporting. If you doubt my numbers, you can go do it yourself, it really isn't that hard, it just takes a bit of time and phone calls. You will end up with teh same conclusion that I did here:
http://www.semiaccurate.com/2009/10/06/nvidia-will-crater-gtx260-and-gtx275-prices-soon/
When forced to price relative to Juniper, NV can't sell G200b parts at a profit. If they don't price it relatively, the parts will sit on the store shelves. $400 GTX285, or $259 HD5850? Your money, do what you want with it.

So, rather than running around whining, why don't you actually go and do the research like I did? Then you will have your answer, to whatever degree you feel is necessary to document the problem or as you posit, lack thereof.

Now, you can extend the exercise to Cypress and Juniper. The one key number is that a TSMC 40nm wafer is ~$5000. If you start at the silicon level, how much does 181mm^2 of a $5000 40nm wafer cost, and how much does 484mm^2 of a $4000 55nm wafer cost? From there, the only real difference between the two is ram costs, call it $3.25 * 8 for NV, $3.50 * 8 for ATI, and off you go.

When you have parts totals and assembly totals, subtract that from the selling price. Start with Juniper, but *HINT* don't take your numbers from Fudzilla, or at least the numbers published from them so far. On one side, you will end up with a positive number, the other negative.

Your homework Trini is to figure out which is which. Then you can consider yourself edumacated, and have someone put a gold star sticker on your forehead. This is not a path off the short bus however, that will take a little more time.

The next time you don't believe what I write, go do the research, you will look a lot smarter. Denials followed by a statement that can be paraphrased, "but I really don't have a clue about the real numbers" is not a way to make yourself look good.

You now know what to do. Clock is ticking. Go!

-Charlie