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Hahah, that's the best hyperbolic rant I've seen in awhile. If Charlie is so confidant in his predictions, he should take out a huge loan or second mortgage right now, and short NVDA like crazy. Why is it that he can clearly see the imminent demise of Nvidia, but thousands of shareholders can't?
kuraegomon
Newcomer
Charlie _is_ batshit crazy, and more to the point, we're a _ways_ away from AMD having a completely filled-out 40nm portfolio. However, the fact that Nvidia's been in a VERY uncomfortable position, margin-wise, with all their GT200-based parts for a while now (i.e. since RV770 shipped) isn't really in question. Now that we've seen how good Cypress is, and the price-point AMD can deliver it at, I've been trying to figure out how the hell Nvidia can ship GTX 260/275/285 at the price points they'd need to compete. Without bankrupting themselves inside two quarters, that is. And I haven't been able to do it.
So, while we're haha-ing mad Charlie again, can someone tell me how:
1/ Nvidia can compete with 5870/5850 being shipped in volume
2/ Nvidia can ship GT300 in volume before Q1 2010 when they couldn't even produce (or at least spare 1 to show publicly) an actual prototype card at the start of Q4 2009? Because I don't think that's ever been done in this industry.
And BTW, you'd think that the last two years would have taught you that thousands (or millions)of shareholders thinking anything should be more of a cause for concern than anything else
I vehemently disagree. Charlie was actually one of the saner people I've met in my lifetime, he's a hoopy frood who really knows where his towel is.
Can't disagree with anything else you wrote really, I'm not expecting any green miracles this christmas either.
Seems like Fuad is hearing the same thing about GT200.
Fuad:
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15831/1/
Fuad:
http://www.fudzilla.com/content/view/15831/1/
......., we're a _ways_ away from AMD having a completely filled-out 40nm portfolio. However, the fact that Nvidia's been in a VERY uncomfortable position, margin-wise, with all their GT200-based parts for a while now (i.e. since RV770 shipped) isn't really in question. Now that we've seen how good Cypress is, and the price-point AMD can deliver it at, I've been trying to figure out how the hell Nvidia can ship GTX 260/275/285 at the price points they'd need to compete. Without bankrupting themselves inside two quarters, that is. And I haven't been able to do it.
So, while we're haha-ing mad Charlie again, can someone tell me how:
1/ Nvidia can compete with 5870/5850 being shipped in volume
2/ Nvidia can ship GT300 in volume before Q1 2010 when they couldn't even produce (or at least spare 1 to show publicly) an actual prototype card at the start of Q4 2009? Because I don't think that's ever been done in this industry.
And BTW, you'd think that the last two years would have taught you that thousands (or millions)of shareholders thinking anything should be more of a cause for concern than anything else
I agree, and I am very interesten in what will NV really do in next 6 months because this entire generation is very strongly reminding me (reversed) 8800GTX vs. 2900XT situation...
Gotta agree.
The premise of this statement is that a company will completely withdraw from a market and relinquish untold amounts of marketshare whenever they find themselves at a short-term cost disadvantage. The level of idiocy is beyond comprehension to be honest. The GTX285 could be had for $350 at launch. We are now to believe that 55nm yields have not improved to the point where they can sustain sales at a considerable discount? Not to mention the vast majority of GT200 derivatives have been sub $300 for a long time now.
In any case, I don't recall such excellent advice being offered for R600 or Phenom. If only the author would emerge from behind his bully pulpit and put all these smarts to use running his own company. That would show them all!
kuraegomon
Newcomer
Gotta agree.
The premise of this statement is that a company will completely withdraw from a market and relinquish untold amounts of marketshare whenever they find themselves at a short-term cost disadvantage. The level of idiocy is beyond comprehension to be honest. The GTX285 could be had for $350 at launch. We are now to believe that 55nm yields have not improved to the point where they can sustain sales at a considerable discount? Not to mention the vast majority of GT200 derivatives have been sub $300 for a long time now.
In any case, I don't recall such excellent advice being offered for R600 or Phenom. If only the author would emerge from behind his bully pulpit and put all these smarts to use running his own company. That would show them all!
Oi, Oi - please indicate that the second quote is Charlie's and not mine, thankyouverymuch.
Other than that, lets look at the empirical evidence: If 55nm yields have improved so much for GT200 that they can profitably sell at a proper price ratio to 58xx, then where are the cards? All the usual suspects indicate that there are severe shortages in the channel - and when even Fudo says Nvidia doesn't want to ship at a loss ... I mean, Fudo?!? For him to say something that puts NV in that kind of light pretty much makes it gospel. The only reason for a shortage of constriction of GT200 supply is if they're being choked off at the source. There are precisely two possible reasons for shortages of such mature parts:
1/ As discussed, Team Green just doesn't want (can't afford) to take a bath on the parts - and we sure as hell know their AIB partners won't.
2/ NV will be able to ship in volume before the holidays, and doesn't want to have to compensate retailers for significant inventory in that case ... Riiiiiight. Not happening.
As for GT200 having been below $300 ... that's right. And go back and take a look at NV's quarterly results ever since RV770's launch. When a consistent 10% market share lead results in bleeding that much red ink, then I'm sure you know what their margins are like.
I'm not claiming that NV is (semi-)permanently abandoning the performance/enthusiast sectors - just circling the wagons until they can ship GT300. Late January to mid-February seems about right for that.
And BTW, how many R600 parts did AMD ship into the teeth of G80, anyway?
Have you taken a look at AMD's graphics division results since RV770's launch? I know you're not trying to make sense of the silliness in that article. Do you understand you're suggesting that a company will kill its revenue stream in order to avoid a marginal loss. Do you have any idea how fundamentally ridiculous that is?
A lot. They just dropped the price.
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/video/...a_of_Creating_Shortage_on_the_GPU_Market.html
Unless it has been posted already and I've missed it. I've no idea what is true but it puts a different light on the story and excuse me it distances itself from what one or the other side's sock puppet has to say.
Unless it has been posted already and I've missed it. I've no idea what is true but it puts a different light on the story and excuse me it distances itself from what one or the other side's sock puppet has to say.
kuraegomon
Newcomer
Sigh. No NV won't kill its entire revenue stream to avoid a marginal loss. They do have more than one revenue stream, you know? E.g. all those (much smaller/cheaper/presumably still profitable G92 variants). You're mis-understanding (deliberately mis-reading?) my point. My point is that they've likely ALREADY been accepting marginal losses on GT200 parts for quite some time in the name of maintaining revenue/market share. New pricing realities appear likely to make those losses far more significant. I think it entirely reasonable that if they're looking at triple-digit losses per GT200 shipped (not that I'm saying it actually is triple-digit - just high enough to be prohibitive), that they might very well curtail what they make/ship. Quietly, of course. Note also, that their cash position is significantly worse than it was a year ago.
Quite frankly, the bottom line is usually more significant than the top line for a mature market incumbent - and becomes more and more so the longer you've been bleeding red ink. Further, you still haven't addressed the observed shortages. Provide another explanation please - i.e. don't just choose to rebut PARTS of my argument, and ignore those that are inconvenient for you. Some of us _do_ actually have a passing familiarity with logic (other than the digital kind
).And as for that "alot" of R600 shipped ... riiight. I'm just going to go ahead and call bullshit on that one. Actual sales figures please. A little googling reminds us that from Q3 2007 through Q2 2008, AMD bled (more like geysered) market share to Nvidia. For example, see TR article (couldn't find the JPR original quickly) on Q4 2007 discrete graphics card shipments:
http://techreport.com/discussions.x/14311
Again, I'm not blindly supporting Charlie here (Good God, never!) but even when you filter his 90% (95%?) b.s. and bias out, and just look at what the empirical evidence suggests - he's probably got a kernel of truth hidden in there. Somewhere.
So, either systematically and logically address the entirety of my argument above (with supporting linkage where appropriate, please) or just ... shhhh.
Blazkowicz
Legend
the R600 got sales as a cheaper alternative to G94/G92 and RV670, in the form of radeon HD 2900GT. That was after G80 wasn't relevant anymore, except on the highest end
leoneazzurro
Regular
Look in the stores. Cypress is still in short supply, but Juniper is widely available.
http://www.e-key.it/(S(cvmx2i45slqyzq2ybrwyhjv4))/product_details.aspx?ID=6281
Anyway, it (GTX high end cards to be EOLed) seems too strange to me, maybe Nvidia has a GT200 shrink to 40nm on the way?
Maybe they have a GF100 on the way?
leoneazzurro
Regular
And when does it come out? November (nobody will give that credit)?
And where are the smaller parts? November too?
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Amazing. Was everyone really expecting NVIDIA to do the same mistake they made with G80 just before the G92/RV670 launch? They lost huge amounts of money because of that excess inventory before we even get into the indirect effects. They knew AMD was going to launch RV8xx, and they knew there would no longer be any gross profit from it. Why exactly did anyone expect them NOT to pull the plug months ago? The only insane prediction here is Charlie's earlier claim that the shortage is artificial; of course it isn't!
I trust you've read xbitlabs' newsblurb?
Ah, so Nvidia's most expensive part will be $100? This I would love to see
Sigh indeed. Do you have any evidence at all of Nvidia's margins on GT200 besides that semi-accurate article? With all your hand-waving you're ignoring that AMD is also losing money on graphics cards. So exactly how do you figure both companies are losing money but then draw different conclusions on margins for GT200 and RV770?
Provide another explanation please - i.e. don't just choose to rebut PARTS of my argument, and ignore those that are inconvenient for you. Some of us _do_ actually have a passing familiarity with logic (other than the digital kind
Yet you seem to choose to ignore the obvious. That they are reducing inventory to avoid a glut. To be honest I don't see any logic in your posts. I see "Charlie said X, so Y must be true".
They lost market share cause they "couldn't" sell R600, not because they didn't want to as you and Charlie are suggesting. There's a difference between taking a loss and not selling a product at all.
So your only "linkage" is Charlie's article yet you want hard numbers? Don't make me laugh
So sorry, I throw your bullshit right back at ya.
Yes, but it doesn't belong in this thread. GT216/218 are coming out (slowly) this month. GT215 (was) is planned for December (a G92 replacement) A higher performance part (GT214) was canceled along with GT212 (GT200 on 40nm with DX10.1) this part was supposed to come out between March and June of this year.
Haven't you been paying attention to Degustator? he said GF100 taped-out at the beginning of this year, MP would've started before May .. so secretly all graphics chips made by nv are GT300's which will be unlocked in a "Can of Whoop-ass/Power Of 3" driver that will be released soon! honestly!
p.s. did you see the pictures Degustator promised back in May?
p.p.s. On reducing Nventory.. they've been doing that for months now, the problem is, board partners are not getting any cards.. so who's nventory are they reducing now?
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