Nvidia Q1 results thread.

Geeforcer

Harmlessly Evil
Veteran
Since the results are coming out on Thursday, I thought I'd get the thread started ahead of time.

Could we see 45/20/15 margins, or will the seasonality temper their otherwise torrid pace?
 
I could see seasonality hurt the /20/15, but I'm expecting 45 myself at least. IGPs being weaker this quarter for them according to JPR might also help that...
I'd expect IGPs and handheld to drag them down, so I'd presume their -5% target compared to Q4 is reasonable; we'll see!
 
With regard to the JPR IGP article on the front page, I wonder if AMD still has some ATI chipsets going for the Intel platform. I imagine that could be the case, given OEM design cycles, and I think AMD management said as much. Not that AMD couldn't simply be gaining on NVIDIA in IGP for Athlon, but there is another possible factor.

Moreover, there is always the discrete chipset segment, where NVIDIA does have a Intel presence. So I speculate that total chipset market share is probably in better shape than JPR numbers would indicate, but obviously the sooner NVIDIA launches Intel IGP parts the better.
 
In a quarter AMD is calling a "perfect storm" for their market percentages crashing, for IGP to hold steady is a pretty firm indicator that there is a large move towards their own chipsets.
 
Great results; congrats NV. They just keep moving from strength to strength financially. If there are any clouds on their horizon they are well hidden at the moment.
 
So, here's the transcript! :) (semi-summarized and notes taken on the fly, as always)
[operator]
[numbers from Mercury Research]

Jen-Hsun
- Non-GAAP Gross Margins reached a record of 45.4%
- Growing importance of GPUs.
- Mobile Devices grew 49% year-over-year.
- New products (8600/8400).
- Design wins from ASUS, HP, Toshiba, etc. for mobile GeForce 8s.
- Significantly increased our addressable market with low-end motherboard GPUs.
- Expecting a new cycle of growth for workstation products thanks to new products.

Marv
- The only difference with GAAP this quarter is stock compensation.
- Memory revenue decreased as expected, so that's as per forecast.
- MCP decrease was more than we expected due to AMD channel weakness.
- GPUs were better than expected, partially thanks to the new products.
- Handheld [did not hear].
- PortalPlayer accounted for $11M.
- Four segments: GPUs, Professional including Gelato/GPGPU, MCP, CPB (Sony, handheld, etc.)
- Pleased with our operational execution. Margins partially upped by workstation products.
- Margins for the new GeForce 8 products were also excellent.
- Operational expenses were relatively flat compared to Q4, including 2 extra months of PortalPlayer.
- Headcount for the quarter was relatively flat.
- $38M capital expenditures.
- Inventory declined by $22M, constant at 65 days. Increase in GF8, decrease in GF7.
Outlook:
- Q2 is usually the slowest quarter of the year.
- We believe revenue can be flat or slightly anyway.
- Growth in notebook GPUs, and we believe MCP will recover from Q1.
- Gross margins, we will work very hard to have flat to slightly up gross margins.
- Tax rate should hold at 14%.

Jen-Hsun
[Status of GF8, all stuff anyone here would know]
- Expecting notebook marketshare to keep going up.
- We do expect AMD to regain share in Q2.
- We also expect to maintain our position of the leader in the AMD MCP market.
- HP, for example, recently started using our single-chip GeForce 6 IGPs in very high-volume PCs.
- This quarter, we will sample our first IGP for the Intel platform.
[CUDA marketing, "taking it to the classroom"]

- 3GSM, introduced the GoForce 6100. Full computer on a chip. 480p full video playback.
- The GoForce 6100 is aimed at [didn't hear everything, sigh]
- Demonstrated industry first implementation of Khronos OpenKODE at 3GSM too.

Q&A
---
Q: ATI new product line, lots of concern on the pricing there? Are you confident you can maintain or keep taking share in the discrete segment?
A: We take competition seriously all the time. It's a very competitive industry, and will remain so we think.
We have 3 products in the enthusiast segment. Ultra, GTX, and GTS. R600 will most likely be competing with the GTS.
We're also ramping up really hard the rest of the product line, which are 8600 and 8500/8300.
We're cautious obviously, this is a company that knows how to compete, but our expectation is that we will be quite successful.

Q: Price competion?
A: In the enthusiast segment, we have 3 products, they have one. And our lowest-end is better than their highest-end, and very price competitive.
The most important factor for enthusiasts is that you want a great product anyway. Otherwise, why would you be an enthusiast?

Q: MCP AMD share?
A: We won a lot of design wins since they merged, and we believe we will continue to be very successful there.
We have to offer products to the market place that are very uniquely ours, such as SLI.
For the low-end, the single-chip architecture and the power of the GeForce brandname is also helping:

Q: Surprised that operating expenses are up for the next quarter. Why?
A: Marv: We hire a lot of people. As we move through the year, the expense goes up.
We expect to continue to hire people, and that's what's anticipated in that expense.
It will be at a very nominal rate though.

Jen-Hsun: What we are trying to do here is invest in very important opportunities, such as the Intel MCP market.
Other growth area is GPGPU. And the third is application processors, in which we are investing very aggressively.
These three areas of investment are the reason behind the expense increases.

Q: You keep growing cash - what do you plan to use it for?
A: We expect to continue to generate significant cash, I don't know it'd be $300M a quarter, and we'll have to decide what to do with it.
It could be a quarterly stock buyback, or it could be something different. The board didn't decide anything there yet.
Purchased $125M worth of stock in Q4.

Q: Discrete new desktop GPUs. ATIs had numerous delays. Design cycle increase?
A: The GPU is one of the most complex devices built anywhere in the world. It is probably the most complex device.
Hundreds of people work on it for many years. It's hundreds of millions of dollars. You also have to be world-class.
We're really really proud of our execution. It's a system the industry recognizes as being absolutely superior.
We have absolutely no intention of slowing down the rate of innovation. We won't increase the cycle times.

Q: Intel IGP?
A: Yes. [known info]
We already have design wins from OEMs, and we're working as hard as we can to meet their schedule requirements.

Q: AMD MCP business?
A: What we experienced in the MCP business is exactly what AMD experienced in the channel.
Our marketshare is relatively high, so it's normal we follow that.

Q: Santa Rosa, GPU penetration?
A: About 5-6 quarters back, our marketshare was about 20%. Now we're at about 60%.
Our expectation is that we will manage 70% or higher this year. And the market is growing too.

Q: The discrete GPU market for notebooks, do you think it'll grow because of Vista?
A: [marketing about that]. Adoption of GPUs due to Vista has been pretty good. HD-DVD and Bluray is helping too.

Q: Two questions. First, 6100 application processor, design wins? Could you categorize any of those in terms of volume?
Second question, you talked of GPUs growing to billions of units - marketshare, ASPs etc.?

A: We don't speak of future customers, and we won't categorize them as significant or not.
We're just really excited about the fact it's our first application processor etc.
ASPs have increased, year by year, over the last 10 years. The reason for that is that more and more of the computing
experience is determined by the GPU. Tommorow, image processing and computing will also become more dependent on GPUs.
I don't know what our marketshare will be, but we're the ones investing the most in it.

Q: Follow-up about workstations etc. regarding ASPs
A: GPUs are being used in a lot more applications, it's hard to predict. The number of GPUs going in portable devices
is going to go up too. I don't even really know how important this is. If I gave you a forecast, it'd just be lower
or much higher than that.

Q: Couple of questions. 70% notebook share. Value and mainstream share?
A: We never decline profitable businesses. The lower-end products are also obviously cheaper to produce.
Multimedia extender, car dashboard, etc. - as long as we can add value, we're interested.

Q: Expectations for your success on Intel's platform giving no one else who's come before has done that well other than them?
A: Comparing us to a historical chipset supplier is probably not the best way to estimate our success.
Not one person predicted our success in the AMD chipset business. People also feared it to become a commodity.
Importance to add value and create new experiences for people.
Apple surprises us every day.

Q: Margins?
A: Haha. Higher!
I can envision a business a couple of years out that generates in the 50% gross margins.
Probably not going to happen this year, but I can imagine it easily a couple of years out.

Q: OpEx?
Marv: Right now our business model has OpEx at 23-24%.
If margins go up, some of that extra money will go to OpEx, part will go to operating income.
[marketing from Jen-Hsun on margins]

Q: MCP revenue between AMD and Intel, today and exiting Calendar 07?
A: We never broke that up before, but I think it's fair to say Intel revenue contribution is increasing quarter over quarter.
And we expect it to increase over time. We expect higher margins on AMD, but Intel is a 4x larger market, so hard to predict.

Q: Market share discrete desktop?
A: I hope we will increase our share there. We'll do everything we can to increase it.
We are going to increase discrete notebook share, and we'd like to increase desktop too.

Q: Drivers for Q2 revenue?
A: We're cautious due to seasonality. I think our product positioning in Q2 is excellent.
So GPUs might help if the market remains relatively robust.

Q: How is the ramp progressing for PS3? Products for Sony?
A: We'd rather not comment on Sony's progress, you should really ask Sony. And we also don't comment on future products.

Q: R600, leapfrogging, marketshare, etc.?
A: It's a fallacy that there is leapfrogging. That really only is a notion that happens in the losing team.
Over the last 10 years, I remember only one cycle we lost, which is GeForce FX.
Based on that, people concluded there is a leapfrogging happening.
It's not like the sun or the moon come up. Things don't change in 6 months.
We expect our position to remain very strong.

Q: Marketshare?
A: That's a reflection of the value of the products that you build.
If we don't add enough value, then we'll lose our marketshare.

Q: Growth factors for discrete GPUs? Vista, DX10, etc.?
A: Yes, all those things are what came to my mind too. Market loves it when it's something really fresh too.
It's hard to say, but we saw what you saw: GPU market looks pretty good right now.

Q: GPGPU importance?
A: We hope so. Enthusiasm is giving us a lot of encouragement.
This took us 5 years to get there. Lots of technology to get there.
I hope and expect it becomes a massive growth factor.

One last comment on integrated graphics: you are seeing me increasingly categorize it as a GPU.
For us, this GPU is profitable. In fact, from an ASP perspective, it's better than our lowest-end discrete GPUs.
We are the only brand of GPUs in the world that will be able to serve both AMD and Intel.

Q: Road from 45% to 50%?
A: Mix is a huge factor here. If workstations and GPGPU go up, that helps.
The more of a significant business that becomes, the better the margins will be.
A single chip GPU on the motherboard has very nice margins for us, better than a lot of our businesses.
GeForce 8 has better margins too. Overall, we see tons of ways to increase our gross margins over time.
We have many ideas of waste improve in our company too.

[missed question]

Q: 65nm transition?
A: Uhhh. We... Uhhh... All of our new designs are going to 65 and 55nm.
I'm not sure I understand the question.
Q: When are we going to see significant volume there?
A: We will be in 65 very significantly certainly this year. So that would imply "soon".

Q: GF8 for single-chip GPU motherboards?
A: Since, our marketshare of IGP for Intel is exactly 0%, any segment there is a growth opportunity.
I would expect NVIDIA to have DX10 and HD Video in an IGP before than any other company in the world. Hopefully this year.

Q: GPGPU market size and effect on margins.
A: We're honestly not sure. Everywhere you have a large display, eventually you'll have a GPU.
We think of GPU computing in the same way, because of what we call the "supercomputing crisis".
Nobody has really invested in the field, and yet things like computational finance/chemestry/biology etc. need nearly infinite horsepower.

Q: We'll see GPGPU revenue before the end of the year?
A: I hope so.
 
Jen-Hsun's confidence going into Intel, and the way he just brushed off the historical record of everyone else who has done so, was quite interesting.

Maybe he's right. They will be the first, I think, to try to be the premium value add supplier compared to Intel. Everyone else has tried to be the bargain alternative to Intel.

How Intel will like that tho. . . .
 
For the most part, the results were very good. The cc also emphasized what we talked about in other thread, the AMD-Nvidia relationship and does provide somewhat of an insight in their success in Intel chipset market or the lack there of. Seem pretty clear that a person looking to buy an AMD/Nvidia system was far more interested in Intel/Intel system, understandably.

I wonder if they will be able to crack $3.5 billion for fiscal 07.
 
Jen-Hsun's confidence going into Intel, and the way he just brushed off the historical record of everyone else who has done so, was quite interesting.

Maybe he's right. They will be the first, I think, to try to be the premium value add supplier compared to Intel. Everyone else has tried to be the bargain alternative to Intel.

How Intel will like that tho. . . .

Well its certainly true that HP loves NVIDIA chipsets. They seem to offer it wherever they can, and they are the leading U.S consumer PC company. I don't see why this wouldn't be the case with Intel platforms. And HP is hardly alone among OEMs offering nForce.

And though there is talk of pricing bundling with CPU from AMD/Intel, NVIDIA does have the advanatge of serving both - potentially "bundling" across platforms.

The other thing to think about, and I think this makes a lot of sense, is that there is a very, very good reason for OEMs to form solid long-term relationships with NVIDIA independent of the fact that multimedia and graphics are really the thing for the next decade (second-life and the potnetial for a virtual web, google eath, ect...). That reason is that NVIDIA is a potential strong competitor to Intel. The are financially sound and have very impressive economics. There ASPs are much lower than those of Intel's, yet they are generating nearly as strong margins.

And if you think that's pie in the sky logic because of Larabee and Intel threat, just think of NVIDIA's position in the industry. They cover the the highest to the lowest ends. NVIDIA chipsets are in servers, and soon there will be GPUs. I am sure HP and others love the idea of helping NVIDIA build next-generation supercomputers with GPUs. Why wouldn't they?
 
If the cycle time is not going to go up then this suggest the next big step for them will be around Feb-April next year as currently they are running 14-16 month cycle times.

If this is true, and it is also true that they will largely move over to 65nm before this, then I do still think that a refresh part which has a smaller process and has simply "more of everything" will be out in late summer or so this year.
Perhaps this will be the 8900 series ?
 
A GPU/audio processor combo for mobile devices (Phones, PDA's, etc).
Basically it's a general purpose ARM core, a DSP, and a bit of custom logic throw together into a SoC. The real selling point through is the software stack to make the system work. A phone developer will basically just call decode_h264 and the software stack does whatever voodoo is needed across the various units in the chip to decode the stream in realtime.
 
Thanks! I googled it already, it looks like something that could sell well if it truly is es efficient as presented by nV.
 
That reason is that NVIDIA is a potential strong competitor to Intel. The are financially sound and have very impressive economics. There ASPs are much lower than those of Intel's, yet they are generating nearly as strong margins.

I think the overriding reason for their strong margins even though they have lower ASPs is the sheer capital expense of operating your own Fabs and developing cutting edge processes of your own. That kind of R&D is expensive. But of course the downside is that you have to wait for the 3rd party Fab guys to get their new processes up and running. Intel's been at 65 nm for 1.5+ years, and we have one GPU out on 65 nm at this time.

It will be interesting to see if Intel positions their graphics parts in the n generation of processes, or the n+1. That should tell us exactly how serious they are about their upcoming graphics business.
 
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