nVidia Project Th-.. Shield (Tegra4)

[upnorthsox]

Nexus devices, just like the Amazon Kindle fire tablets are anomolys regarding retail pricing, as these are products produced by companies who own and operate their content distribution platforms through which pretty much the prevailing majority of apps and software content purchased for the device will be pruchased from. Google and Amazon have adopted an effective traditional "console" model, i.e. selling a device with really low margins to undercut the competition, whilst making a killing back on content purchases through the storefronts, i.e. Google Play store for Google and Amazon Kindle and appstore for Amazon.

Nvidia doesn't even remotely have anything of that ilk, and would be wasting their time and money trying to develop one for themselves. Thus I think it's a little silly to look at any Nexus device pricing or Kindle tablet, as this thing will be more in line with the iPads and Samsung Galaxy tablets of the world than the Google Nexus devices.

It's a niche product for high end PC Gamers who have more money than sense and run triple GTX 680 SLI rigs with intel Xeon core CPUs @ 5Ghz with 32GB ram, just cuz they can. This won't be a mainstream product, and certainly won't have a mainstream price. Nvidia will slap on a nice healthly margin, because... well... they don't give their graphics cards away for free do they?

This pretty much sums it up for me.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

nVidia not only has the Tegrazone, which I would guess is a revenue generator for them, but the GPU business. This device supports both of those businesses, creating varying degrees of synergy benefits. nVidia is also the maker of the SOC, instead of having to purchase it and getting Tegra 4s out there is a plus too.

This thing exists, because nVidia didn't get any console contracts. They have vested interest to ship more than 4 of these.

 

[GuestLV]

Nvidia doesn't even remotely have anything of that ilk, and would be wasting their time and money trying to develop one for themselves.

What about Tegra Zone? Why they cant operate like Samsung apps store?

 

[mboeller]

I think the Shield is a little bit too bulky to call it a portable [STRIKE]handheld[/STRIKE].

Derived from the pictures here and here it seems that Shield is 15,5cm ( 6,1 inch) wide, ~13,5cm ( 5,3 inch) deep and ~6cm ( 2,3 inch) high when it is closed. So imho too bulky to call it a portable [STRIKE]handheld[/STRIKE].

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It's held in the hands. Too bulky to call it pocketable or portable, maybe, but certainly it's a handheld!

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Not the best quality picture, but a size comparison.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Just out of curiousity I went looking at those various devices.

Nexus 7
-----
Tegra 3 - so a cheaper slower chip.
1 GB of RAM.
much lower PPI screen.
small battery.
Likely being subsidized (sold at or below cost).

Nexus 4 [edit - fixed, had specs for Nexus S 4G previously)
-----
Quad core Krait - so much slower.
high PPI screen
2GB of RAM.
Tiny battery.
Nothing there other than the screen and memory amount are really comparable to the nVidia Shield.

Nexus 10
----
Exynos 5250 - finally getting to similar performance ballpark at least.
2 GB of RAM, so matches up better.
Decent battery size, probably similar to what will go into the NV console.
High PPI screen.
This is the closest in cost you'll probably find as long as we ignore the rest. The hardware also has to fit into a potentially smaller but bulkier form factor. Whether that will end up helping with the cost is hard to say. So at this point it is quite likely that the minimum price is going to be around 450-750+ USD (cheapest Nexus 10 in the US is 489 USD that I've seen from a casual search).

All of the above have
----
No hardware controllers.
No pivoting screen.
No hardware buttons.
No support for 4k (beefier HDMI solution, implies a significantly stronger GPU, etc.)
Any of the additional hardware and tech that Nvidia has hinted at but not disclosed as of yet.

There is also a good chance that any "Google" branded devices are getting a bit of subsidy from Google as they can then recoup those through app store sales, something nVidia is unlikely to be able to do.

They are also unlikely to sell this anywhere near cost. Unless pressed into a corner (ala Radeon 4870 price war) they always build hefty and healthy margins into their products.

So, thank you. After your post and looking at the state of Android devices, I think it's pretty safe to say that it'll likely be somewhere between 450-800 USD or more. And I'd be hugely surprised if it came in closer to 450 than 800.

Regards,
SB

Oh come on, you're not being even remotely fair here!

1 - The Nexus 4 has a radio chip in it and is a mobile phone. It has to pass a shitload of QA certifications, which the Shield doesn't have to because you're not going to hold it next to your brain.

2 - The Nexus 7 and the Nexus 10 have much larger -and therefore more expensive - screens. You think everything with "high PPI" gets put in the same price tag?
Or by your logic, a 50" LED TV should cost less than as a 32" one if both are FullHD? Now the only thing that matters is pixel density?!

3 - You think that a hinge for the screen and hardware game controls are significantly more expensive than anything else, to the point of having the shield costing 3x more than a Nexus 7?!

Nexus devices, just like the Amazon Kindle fire tablets are anomolys regarding retail pricing, as these are products produced by companies who own and operate their content distribution platforms through which pretty much the prevailing majority of apps and software content purchased for the device will be pruchased from. Google and Amazon have adopted an effective traditional "console" model, i.e. selling a device with really low margins to undercut the competition, whilst making a killing back on content purchases through the storefronts, i.e. Google Play store for Google and Amazon Kindle and appstore for Amazon.

This is just not true.
The prices I showed for the Nexus devices are not subsidized because that's the price for an unlocked Nexus 4 and the other two don't even have a 3G module at those prices.
The Nexus 7 sells in stores alongside many other tablets. There are tablets with specs that are very similar to the Nexus 7 that are actually some 60€ cheaper. They have a slightly less powerful SoC (RK3066) but then they have HDMI-out, Micro-SD slot, a forward-facing camera which the Nexus 7 doesn't have, even though they have the same IPS panel, very good quality contruction, similar batteres size, etc.

The Nexus 10 and 4 are obviously unit constrained, and that's probably the only reason why they aren't in stores.

There's no "magic" going on there. Google isn't selling Nexus devices at a loss, it's the other companies who are selling their smartphones at huge margins because they can and because of a status quo for their products.

It's a niche product for high end PC Gamers who have more money than sense and run triple GTX 680 SLI rigs with intel Xeon core CPUs @ 5Ghz with 32GB ram, just cuz they can. This won't be a mainstream product, and certainly won't have a mainstream price. Nvidia will slap on a nice healthly margin, because... well... they don't give their graphics cards away for free do they?

I'm sorry, but I find this ridiculous. Only the people with a triple GTX680 and 5GHz Xeons and 32GB are going to buy a Shield?
When did nVidia ever sold such a product?




So this costs 150€, and Archos is selling them at profit:

Functionality-wise, it has about the same features as the Shield, yet you both think that every single analogous component that Shield has will cost at least 3x more.

I'm dumbfounded.

 

[Exophase]

Functionality-wise, it has about the same features as the Shield, yet you both think that every single analogous component that Shield has will cost at least 3x more.

I'm dumbfounded.

Answer: Archos Gamepad sucks. http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/df-hardware-archos-gamepad-review

I hear some of these problems were somewhat alleviated with a firmware update, but there's no question that this is an intrinsically cheaper device and they're saving money by skimping on design effort and testing, and they intrinsically save money by being developed in a country with a lower standard of living.

Some of the cost difference is obvious. A screen that's smaller but higher resolution and higher quality is much more expensive. The SoC is considerably better and considerably more expensive to manufacture. There's more memory which is more expensive. I don't know what the battery capacity is like but given reports of very poor battery life it's probably only a fraction of what Shield offers, and isn't distributed over 3 cells.

Other parts are less obvious. The small PCB is more expensive to manufacture and dictates several more expensive design aspects like needing to use PoP memory (Gamepad's SoC may not even be BGA). The housing consists of more parts and higher assembly times which increases price. They'll probably be using much more expensive dual channel LPDDR2 memory over Gamepad which presumably uses stock DDR3 or DDR3L. The hinge dictates a more expensive LCD cable. The list goes on.

Also consider that nVidia has thus far not been in the business of selling much more than discrete chips, at least to the best of my knowledge. Archos sells a bunch of tablets and other mobile devices so they aren't staking their entire parts inventory on this product since most of the parts outside of the case and buttons can be used in other products (possibly even including the PCB!). Not so with nVidia - they'll probably need to use all of their parts on this, and since I don't think they're staking on it being a high volume smash that'll mean sourcing parts at lower and more expensive volumes.

Tell you what, if this ends up costing less than $299 I will personally buy you one. I am that confident that it won't, and I'm very doubtful of less than $349. BTW 3x 150 EUR is nearly $600, and I don't think anyone is setting that as a lower bound.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Silent_Buddha said he'd be "hugely surprised" if it costs less than $625...

 

[Exophase]

Silent_Buddha said he'd be "hugely surprised" if it costs less than $625...

Yeah, I guess that'd be the case taking his comment literally.. kind of a weird thing to say though, why give a range starting $175 below what you'd be hugely surprised to see it go beneath? >_> But I'll let him clarify if appropriate and he wants to..

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Answer: Archos Gamepad sucks. http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/df-hardware-archos-gamepad-review

There are conflicting opinions about that, but nonetheless I never suggested otherwise.

I hear some of these problems were somewhat alleviated with a firmware update, but there's no question that this is an intrinsically cheaper device and they're saving money by skimping on design effort and testing, and they intrinsically save money by being developed in a country with a lower standard of living.

If you actually mean developed in the R&D sense, then I don't really think France is a country with a "lower standard of living"...
I mean.. every proper European hears stories about how most French people only bathe every other day, but I think that's more of a sociocultural thing rather than related to living standards. I definitely saw worse things when I studied in Germany, though, and their paychecks are definitely among the best in the EU.

If you're talking about assembly in China, then that would include pretty much every electronics company in the world, where even the "dearest" iphones and Galaxy S3s of the world are assembled. So how is that different from the others?

Some of the cost difference is obvious. A screen that's smaller but higher resolution and higher quality is much more expensive. The SoC is considerably better and considerably more expensive to manufacture. There's more memory which is more expensive. I don't know what the battery capacity is like but given reports of very poor battery life it's probably only a fraction of what Shield offers, and isn't distributed over 3 cells.

Other parts are less obvious. The small PCB is more expensive to manufacture and dictates several more expensive design aspects like needing to use PoP memory (Gamepad's SoC may not even be BGA). The housing consists of more parts and higher assembly times which increases price. They'll probably be using much more expensive dual channel LPDDR2 memory over Gamepad which presumably uses stock DDR3 or DDR3L. The hinge dictates a more expensive LCD cable. The list goes on.

Also consider that nVidia has thus far not been in the business of selling much more than discrete chips, at least to the best of my knowledge. Archos sells a bunch of tablets and other mobile devices so they aren't staking their entire parts inventory on this product since most of the parts outside of the case and buttons can be used in other products (possibly even including the PCB!). Not so with nVidia - they'll probably need to use all of their parts on this, and since I don't think they're staking on it being a high volume smash that'll mean sourcing parts at lower and more expensive volumes.

Of course it will be more expensive than the Archos GamePad or people would have already complained about a poor TN panel, poor performance and weak batteries.
I doesn't mean it'll cost as much as four or five Archos Gamepads as Silent_Buddha and Prophecy2k were suggesting, though. That price range is ridiculous.

Tell you what, if this ends up costing less than $299 I will personally buy you one. I am that confident that it won't, and I'm very doubtful of less than $349.

So let's set this straight: if the MSRP is $298.99 or less in the U.S.A. you buy me one? Or $299 is also good?
If there are several SKUs (varying in internal storage, for example) and the cheapest is $295, then you buy me one?

BTW 3x 150 EUR is nearly $600, and I don't think anyone is setting that as a lower bound.

Except there's practically a 1:1 $-to-€ conversion rate when dealing with the MSRP of electronics between the U.S.A. and the E.U.
As a reference, the cheapest ipad mini (16GB, wifi-only) costs about 340€, which is $445 US. The exact same model goes for $320 in the U.S.

 

[Exophase]

There are conflicting opinions about that, but nonetheless I never suggested otherwise.

So I guess you think Shield will suck too, right? I mean, you're asking how Gamepad can be so cheap right?

If you actually mean developed in the R&D sense, then I don't really think France is a country with a "lower standard of living"...
I mean.. every proper European hears stories about how most French people only bathe every other day, but I think that's more of a sociocultural thing rather than related to living standards. I definitely saw worse things when I studied in Germany, though, and their paychecks are definitely among the best in the EU.

If you're talking about assembly in China, then that would include pretty much every electronics company in the world, where even the "dearest" iphones and Galaxy S3s of the world are assembled. So how is that different from the others?

Not referring to France. Probably most of the work that goes into developing Archos products is not done in France, but I don't have a good reference on that. I'm talking about well more than assembly.

Of course it will be more expensive than the Archos GamePad or people would have already complained about a poor TN panel, poor performance and weak batteries.
I doesn't mean it'll cost as much as four or five Archos Gamepads as Silent_Buddha and Prophecy2k were suggesting, though. That price range is ridiculous.

Is the price for Razer Edge ridiculous too? Well, yes, but they're still going to be selling it for that.. Why do you see this as being so different?

So let's set this straight: if the MSRP is $298.99 or less in the U.S.A. you buy me one? Or $299 is also good?

$298.99 or less, and yes on MSRP - so not due to some extra special promotion or part of some other offer.

If there are several SKUs (varying in internal storage, for example) and the cheapest is $295, then you buy me one?

So long as they all have all of the features announced so far yes.

Except there's practically a 1:1 $-to-€ conversion rate when dealing with the MSRP of electronics between the U.S.A. and the E.U.
As a reference, the cheapest ipad mini (16GB, wifi-only) costs about 340€, which is $445 US. The exact same model goes for $320 in the U.S.

That doesn't work the same for products that are made by European companies, and also has no bearing whatsoever on what people actually have to pay when importing.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

So I guess you think Shield will suck too, right? I mean, you're asking how Gamepad can be so cheap right?

I don't even know where this is coming from...

Not referring to France. Probably most of the work that goes into developing Archos products is not done in France, but I don't have a good reference on that. I'm talking about well more than assembly.

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archos -> there's nothing in there telling me the R&D is made in anywhere but France.

Is the price for Razer Edge ridiculous too? Well, yes, but they're still going to be selling it for that.. Why do you see this as being so different?

Ridiculous?
The Razer Edge is competing with the Surface Pro ($900), Acer W700 ($999) and all the other Windows 8 tablets with an ULV IvyBridge. The Edge has a worse screen but OTOH it has a discrete GPU and a more expensive cooling solution.

The Project Shield is a competitor to handheld consoles. Not smartphones, not tablets. It'll be fighting the Vita and the 3DS, both priced at much lower than Silent_Buddha's absolute minimum of $450.

$298.99 or less, and yes on MSRP - so not due to some extra special promotion or part of some other offer.

So long as they all have all of the features announced so far yes.

Oh boy, the game's on!

For the record, I don't think there's a large chance it'll come out at less than $299.
In fact, I think $350 would be more than fair for that product.
But, I still think there's a small chance it'll come out at less than $299. Fingers crossed

That doesn't work the same for products that are made by European companies, and also has no bearing whatsoever on what people actually have to pay when importing.

Actually, it does. If the customs get their hands on the imports, I have to pay an additional 23% of the product+shipping (yeah, they charge on the shipping too), so it's really not worth it to import.

 

[Exophase]

I don't even know where this is coming from...

Just that you're asking why one is expected to cost much more than the other. There's a premium for quality. It isn't linear. As far as I'm concerned the d-pad on Gamepad makes it pretty much worthless.

-> there's nothing in there telling me the R&D is made in anywhere but France.

So it would seem. I was under the impression that the Shenzhen subsidiary was doing more than they are (they do engineering but apparently for ARNOVA, not Archos branded products). They do seem to indicate that they shifted to more development outside of France post 2008, though: http://www.archoslounge.net/IMG/2011/03/ARCHOS_2010_Q4_2011-02-28_en.pdf

Ridiculous?
The Razer Edge is competing with the Surface Pro ($900), Acer W700 ($999) and all the other Windows 8 tablets with an ULV IvyBridge. The Edge has a worse screen but OTOH it has a discrete GPU and a more expensive cooling solution.

The Project Shield is a competitor to handheld consoles. Not smartphones, not tablets. It'll be fighting the Vita and the 3DS, both priced at much lower than Silent_Buddha's absolute minimum of $450.

So what you're saying is that price is not a function of BOM cost but market placement. You think that Shield is competing with handhelds and a one-off like Gamepad that's dogged by the press. I really don't agree. Gamepad is low quality and poorly supported. Handhelds don't run Android or stream PC games and are heavily subsidized by games sales.

Plus it's substantially more powerful than any of them. I don't see why it's fair to expect a big price premium from Windows 8 tablets using IB over Atom just for being more powerful, but not afford that here.

Shield never had any chance of competing even with Vita, much less 3DS, and I doubt nVidia has illusions of this. They've already directly said they'll have to price it at least higher than handhelds.

Oh boy, the game's on!

For the record, I don't think there's a large chance it'll come out at less than $299.
In fact, I think $350 would be more than fair for that product.
But, I still think there's a small chance it'll come out at less than $299. Fingers crossed

Here's hoping if you win the < $299 you won't be obnoxious about it, I'd rather pay you the money than deal with that

Actually, it does. If the customs get their hands on the imports, I have to pay an additional 23% of the product+shipping (yeah, they charge on the shipping too), so it's really not worth it to import.

That doesn't work both ways though - I don't have to pay that kind of tax on European imported items. Nonetheless, I stand by my first point. A USA manufacturer with a bias towards the US market is going to price in Europe differently than a European company like Archos will price for the US.

 

[thatdude90210]

Here's hoping if you win the < $299 you won't be obnoxious about it, I'd rather pay you the money than deal with that

So the bet is if it's over $299, you get to crow about it. But if it's under, he gets money? Doesn't sound like a very good bet on your part.

 

[Exophase]

So the bet is if it's over $299, you get to crow about it. But if it's under, he gets money? Doesn't sound like a very good bet on your part.

It's not a bet (because I don't get anything if I "win"), and I don't intend to crow about anything. I'm just making a statement of confidence that it won't come in under $299.

 

[Aeoniss]

Frankly this has me very excited. I'm not horribly interested in the Android games by themselves, but this will be a very powerful little device that can use its apps and games.. And stream movies! The screen is apparently gorgeous.

What has me all giddy is that I can stream my favorite PC games and play them around my house. I am frothing at the mouth imagining laying down and playing Skyrim or Fallout 3:NV in my living room.

I will definitely get this device. What has me concerned, though, is that some of the advertised games on the Nvidia site (like BF3) makes zero accommodations for gamepad users. Meaning if you were to use this thing to play online you would be destroyed- especially since the elitist PC gamer crowd refuse to allow even the smallest level of aim assist for padders. The mind numbing immaturity just boggles me.

The other area where I think this is stupid awesome is on the emulation scene. We now have a workable form factor to play all of those GBA\SNES\etc games... Using an ACTUAL mainstream mobile OS!

Awesome.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

That range is crazy and not to mention quite vast. The device is basically a 360 controller with 5" screen, Tegra 4, big battery and 2GB of RAM and you'd be "hugely surprised" if it only costs $125 more than a new 10" iPad...Ok. (625$ is the average of 800 and 450)

450 USD is the lower bound, IMO. I'd be hugely surprised if it is lower than that. I give 800 as an upper bound. It does not mean I'd be suprised if it sold less than the average of those two.

Thanks to Exophase for going into more detail about what is involved with bringing a product to market.

To Tottentranz and others.

PS Vita goes for 250 USD. Cheap sure. Also not as powerful as the Shield. Nor as complex to build. It likely has little to no positive margin. Assuming it isn't sold at a loss. As well, Sony were already planning for millions of units, with that you can start pulling in economies of scale. They also have well established manufacturing relationships for consoles and console hardware. Thus can negotiate better deals than Nvidia will be able to.

Nvidia attempts to get high 50% margins on their products when possible (I believe they are currently averageing around 45% or slightly less). They are a hardware company afterall and don't have software sales to subsidize their hardware sales.

So just pulling numbers out of thin air just to play around with. None of these are serious guesses. Just take the base 250 USD for a PS Vita tack on 50% more and we're already up to 375 USD.

So, unless Nvidia wants to sell direct to customers, they'll also need to build in retailer margins. Considering retailers won't be able to sell games for this, that means the retailer margin will have to be on the high side. Tack on another 30% or so, in order to convince retailers to sell it. That brings us up to ~490 USD.

IMO, I think I'm more than fair in estimating the low end retail price for Shield. That that little bit of frivolous fun (read not based in reality) doesn't even take into account that the Shield is going to be far more powerful and far more capable than the PS Vita. And won't be able to leverage Sony's business relationships with electronics and harware suppliers for decades now. Or the fact that Nvidia would be suicidal to start a contract for say 10-20 million of these devices when it may or may not sell. Hence, economies of scale aren't likely to come into play.

Regards,
SB

 

[DuckThor Evil]

450 USD is the lower bound, IMO. I'd be hugely surprised if it is lower than that. I give 800 as an upper bound. It does not mean I'd be suprised if it sold less than the average of those two.

I'll try to keep the nitpicking to a minimum (not really ), but...

Yes you gave a range of 450-800 (or more) and you can change your mind or stance if you like, but you can't say that:

"I'd be hugely surprised if it came in closer to 450 than 800"

is the same as

"I'd be hugely surprised if it is lower than 450"

PS Vita goes for 250 USD. Cheap sure. Also not as powerful as the Shield. Nor as complex to build. It likely has little to no positive margin. Assuming it isn't sold at a loss. As well, Sony were already planning for millions of units, with that you can start pulling in economies of scale. They also have well established manufacturing relationships for consoles and console hardware. Thus can negotiate better deals than Nvidia will be able to.

PS Vita was quite a beast when it came out on 40nm. The tech in Shield is nothing extraordinary for the launch frame and plastic buttons aren't expensive even if they don't order as many as Sony. nVidia has some experience with hardware designing. Their cute small Kepler PCBs proofs it.

Nvidia attempts to get high 50% margins on their products when possible (I believe they are currently averageing around 45% or slightly less). They are a hardware company afterall and don't have software sales to subsidize their hardware sales.

So just pulling numbers out of thin air just to play around with. None of these are serious guesses. Just take the base 250 USD for a PS Vita tack on 50% more and we're already up to 375 USD.

So, unless Nvidia wants to sell direct to customers, they'll also need to build in retailer margins. Considering retailers won't be able to sell games for this, that means the retailer margin will have to be on the high side. Tack on another 30% or so, in order to convince retailers to sell it. That brings us up to ~490 USD.

Well I don't think this has a BOM of 250$ for starters (I'd quess under 200$) nor does retailers need to be given 30% to sell it. It's not known yet, how they are planning to distribute these though.

IMO, I think I'm more than fair in estimating the low end retail price for Shield.

How about the other end?

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Shield never had any chance of competing even with Vita, much less 3DS, and I doubt nVidia has illusions of this. They've already directly said they'll have to price it at least higher than handhelds.

When did they say that?
Nonetheless, higher than a Vita means higher than $250, but Jen-Hsun Huang also said he hoped (and actually he first said he expected but then reiterated) that people would have more than one Shield in each household, hence the customizable backplate.

This means it can't be that much more expensive than say $300. Certainly not in Prophecy2k's theory of only the people with 3xGTX680 SLI and Xeons and 32GB RAM.
(BTW, what hardware enthusiast would ever want a Xeon instead of an unlocked SandyBridge-E for games?!)

Here's hoping if you win the < $299 you won't be obnoxious about it, I'd rather pay you the money than deal with that

It's a promise.

Wait, what if it's only sold in the USA? Can you buy it for me, even if I pay for the shipping?

PS Vita goes for 250 USD. Cheap sure. Also not as powerful as the Shield. Nor as complex to build.

The Vita was a lot more powerful than any other handheld when it came out and yet it came a lot cheaper than the cheapest ipad and Tegra 2 tablets at the time. And it wasn't ever sold at a loss AFAIK.

And why do you think the Shield is more complex to build than a Vita?

- The Vita has two touchpanels and the Shield has one.
- Vita has a 5" RGB 540p OLED screen (which I honestly doubt it's much cheaper than the 5" IPS 720p in the Shield, if at all).
- The Vita has a proprietary port, the Shield has micro-USB and micro-HDMI (both standard connectors that can be bought for cheap).
- The Vita has two custom slots for two custom memory cards (game card and storage expansion), the Shield has one standard and dirt-cheap micro-sd slot.
- Both have a stereo jack
- The Vita has a custom (and large) SoC made at 40nm with stacked VRAM using a very large bandwidth, which can't be much cheaper than a Tegra 4, if at all.

The only big difference I see in the BOM is the heatsink, fan, analog triggers and batteries.
Then again, the Shield appears to use 3 high-capacity AAA batteries, whereas the Vita (ed.) uses a custom battery. I don't know if the price difference is that big in that department.