I noticed the change in graph as well. I think its just marketing. The graph from the old roadmap looked more linear, whereas the new one looks more exponential.
They first had an exponential roadmap then they switched it to linear a year or so ago for some reason.
I've made a chart with my guesses for NVIDIA's upcoming GPUs, assuming all GM20x parts are on 28 nm:
Code:
Scenario #1: GM2xx on 28 nm.
Fermi Kepler Maxwell Pascal
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
| | | | | | | | | | | |
Volume production 40 nm |28 nm |20 nm |16 FF
·–––––––––––––––· ·–––––––·–––––––––––––––—–––––––·
500-600 mm^2: GF110 16* SM |GK110 15 SMX GK180 15 SMX GM200 ~25 SMM ·
1.3/0.7 TF |3.9/1.3 TF 4.3/1.4 TF ~6.4/~1.6? TF ·
·–––––––· ·
300-400 mm^2: GF114 8 SM |GK104 8 SMX GM204 ~15 SMM ·
1.2 TF |3.1 TF 3.2 TF ~4.0 TF ·
·–––––––· ·–––––––·
200–275 mm^2: GF116 4 SM |GK106 5 SMX GM206 ~10 SMM |GM214 ~15 SMM
0.69 TF |1.8 TF ~2.7 TF |~4.5 TF
·—––––––· ·
100–150 mm^2: GF108 2 SM |GK107 2 SMX GM107 5 SMM
0.31 TF |0.81 TF 1.3 TF
·
~75 mm^2: |GF117 GK208 2 SMX GM108 ~3 SMM
All codenames listed have shown up in rumors and reports.
GM206 and GM204 I think will be around 2x and 3x a GM107 respectively, at least in terms of the number of SMMs. Thus the ALU increases over the respective GK10x chips are going to be less as the chip gets bigger.
While that's not necessarily a bad thing, it could mean that we won't see a huge performance jump over GK104 (perf/W on the other hand…). Another possibility is a 20 SMM GM204 with a die size around 450-500 mm^2 and notably higher performance than the 780 Ti. If that happens then the GM204 could be close enough to the GM200 (except compute and DP) to make me think that we won't see GM200 in the non-TITAN consumer space.
I think GM200, as I speculated earlier, will be released with all SMMs enabled and with high clocks. As for the DP ratios, the number I have on the chart assumes 1:4 DP rate—if 1:2 is possible then we could see nearly double the DP possibly at the expense of some SP CCs.
GM214, if it exists, could be some sort of 16 FF shrink of GM204, but there seems to be a tight interval as to where to put it so that it doesn't come too close to GM204 and GM206 and doesn't go too far into Pascal territory. As for Maxwell vs. Pascal, I think there will be chips codenamed GPxxx unless they change the codenaming system.