NVIDIA Kepler speculation thread

[Alexko]

Sure but go back to GTX 580/Radeon 6970 launches up until 7970 came out.

GTX 580 was 500 USD while 6970 was 370 USD. A 130 USD price differential for a 10-15% perf increase.

I'd say that's a pretty obvious example. If you need more you can go back to the 5870 versus GTX 480. And that despite GTX 480 launching significantly later.

Or GTX 280/285 versus 4870.

It was pretty obvious Nvidia weren't going to adjust their enthusiast class (other than 280/285) due to price pressure from AMD. So AMD just adjusted their prices to be in line with Nvidia's.

Regards,
SB

I think these examples may have more to do with the fact that the fastest GPU always commands a hefty premium.

 

[Davros]

Because it's being made according to your own plans.

If the plans were at fault i'd see the logic, but in this case the reason for failed dies is faulty wafers and manufacturing mistakes and contamination.

silent_guy's answer seems to make the deal more palatable

 

[Alexko]

If the plans were at fault i'd see the logic, but in this case the reason for failed dies is faulty wafers and manufacturing mistakes and contamination.

silent_guy's answer seems to make the deal more palatable

Silent_guy's answer was far more detailed and insightful than mine could possibly have been, but the point is that buying silicon is not the same thing as buying a normal product like a car, a computer or a box of cookies, where the customer has no responsibility whatsoever in the manufacturing/baking process.

If you go to TSMC and ask them to make a 600mm² design on 28nm with no redundancy and no regard for design rules, it's hardly their fault if your stuff doesn't work.

 

[Andrew]

Very interesting that NV seems to have failed to design a chip that can be produced again. 1000 GK104s worldwide is a bad joke.

I hope AMD can profit from the failure.

I know all you guys are having a great time bashing nVidia, but many of you are either intentionally ignoring the facts or in denial of the true reason why 28nm chips are in short supply.

The facts are that TSMC does not have 28nm wafer production yields anywhere near the amount required to fulfill the orders currently being placed by AMD, nVidia, Qualcomm, and many other companies. FAB 15 is still a ways off from volume production and the only FAB currently producing 28nm wafers will not be at full capacity until early 2013.

Long story short is TSMC signed more contracts than they could fulfill and since nobody else has a viable 28nm production line running right now.... wafers are in short supply.

http://www.digitimes.com/topic/28nm_chips_in_short_supply_at_tsmc/a001191.html

 

[A1xLLcqAgt0qc2RyMz0y]

Charlie is always right.

That statement makes any point you are trying to make "null and void".

 

[entity279]

He was being sarcastic (I hope)

 

[xEx]

Charlie is always right.

Maybe the Phyxs hardware on the 680s is the problem

 

[Rangers]

It's hard to tell on the internet whether people are being sarcastic, but just in case this post is serious: don't believe everything you read on Semiaccurate.

It's too my theorem, Charlie's internet forum cred is inversely proportional to how much he's bashing Nvidia at any given time It looks like people are back to saying Charlie has no credibility again, welcome back!

"According to newegg sales history, it seems at least 10000 gtx680 are sold by newegg alone."

I am glad random internet commenter has access to Newegg's sales figures. The least he could have done was provided a link so the rest of us could see them, though

 

[DavidGraham]

Charlie is always right.

It's too my theorem, Charlie's internet forum cred is inversely proportional to how much he's bashing Nvidia at any given time It looks like people are back to saying Charlie has no credibility again, welcome back!

It's just a testament to the rest of us that the one backing your arguments is Charlie , who just cant stop pulling BS information out of his ass every time , move on guys nothing new to see here .

And for the record (for those who seem to forget) , this topic never stopped bashing him whether he was praising or otherwise !

 

[seahawk]

I just do not understand why we still discuss Charlies´s rubbish. The steam survey shows he is wrong (680 is catching up to the 7970 quickly), major retailers in the US alone sold the card in the hundreds, same for larger European retailers, yet he tells us that less than 10.000 cards were shipped.

And finally the good question is, if only NV has problems?

Why does Qualcom delay their 28nm products?
Why does AMD not reduce the price of their cards to put NV under pressure.
GK107 seems unknow to him
Why will GK106 launch next months?

The only info we can be sure of, is that TSMC is unable to supply enough 28nm wafers to their customers. Regardless who that is. And neither of the customers can get more wafers, than they previously ordered, as their is no spare production capacity to be had. Considering a conservative ramp by NV, everything looks "normal" to me.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

For the record, Gibbo at Overclockers has said that they've sold more than 1000.

Yep

This is the exact quote from May 4th

"In total we've now shipped close to 1500 units of GTX 680 and at present have 100+ in stock with 500 due next week

I've also got 1000+ GTX 670 in stock ready for the 10th"

http://forums.overclockers.co.uk/showpost.php?p=21840857&postcount=30

Newegg being the far larger e-tailer they should have more stock. Overclockers.co.uk has an annual turnover of something like $60 Million dollars, whereas Newegg has about $2.5 Billion...

My 680 is still in Germany... but should be in my hand by friday.

 

[UniversalTruth]

The facts are that TSMC does not have 28nm wafer production yields anywhere near the amount required to fulfill the orders currently being placed by AMD, nVidia, Qualcomm, and many other companies. FAB 15 is still a ways off from volume production and the only FAB currently producing 28nm wafers will not be at full capacity until early 2013.

Any ideas why in the so distant future?

Long story short is TSMC signed more contracts than they could fulfill and since nobody else has a viable 28nm production line running right now.... wafers are in short supply.

For AMD too but somehow they manage to keep some stuff in stock with quite good availability. With all consequences like wrong conclusions, bad impressions and so on and so forth.

 

[Rangers]

Yep

This is the exact quote from May 4th

"In total we've now shipped close to 1500 units of GTX 680 and at present have 100+ in stock with 500 due next week

I've also got 1000+ GTX 670 in stock ready for the 10th"

http://forums.overclockers.co.uk/showpost.php?p=21840857&postcount=30

Newegg being the far larger e-tailer they should have more stock. Overclockers.co.uk has an annual turnover of something like $60 Million dollars, whereas Newegg has about $2.5 Billion...

My 680 is still in Germany... but should be in my hand by friday.

You ommitted Gibbo saying they had "circa 200 pieces" for launch and that "stock is tight" and implying they have had the most stock in UK.


~2000 is supposed to be impressive for the major e-tailer in a major market? (that place seems UK equivalent of newegg from what I can tell)

You realize they literally dont even come in stock for more than about 2 seconds at newegg for weeks now, seems to as I've said, have gotten worse as time passes.

Good to know of GTX 670 though, maybe stock will actually last more than two seconds. Going by Gibbo they actually have 5 times as much for 670 launch as for 680. Guess Charlie was right, most of the GK104 are broken

I really am shocked though, would have expected 670 to have no chance of being in stock vs 680 (due to better price/performance, assumed lower supply).

For AMD too

Apparently not. AMD has maintained supply. Nvidia seems to maybe have a design flaw preventing that.

The steam survey shows he is wrong (680 is catching up to the 7970 quickly)

If you trust it, it shows 680 doing exactly as well as 7970 for it's first two months (.04% followed by .22%). Which is good, but not spectacular as according to some any Nvidia part must be outselling AMD by 10X, not selling on par. Third month will be interesting. 7970 had spotty avail for ~first month too.

I would suspect 7970 is about to take a hit due to that time where it's pricing was out of whack. Even now I think they could use to launch ghz edition+maybe a little more price cut. Clearly with the 3 game bundle they are trying to squeeze every dollar out.

 

[Alexko]

Charlie may or may not be right about shipment figures, but one of his points is hard to argue with: only NVIDIA is openly complaining about 28nm yields, and Thomas Seifert did say that AMD was able to meet demand for their 28nm products last quarter.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

You ommitted Gibbo saying they had "circa 200 pieces" for launch and that "stock is tight" and implying they have had the most stock in UK.


~2000 is supposed to be impressive for the major e-tailer in a major market? (that place seems UK equivalent of newegg from what I can tell)

I didn't omit anything. The post was in reference to the 10000 shipped worldwide figure claimed by Charlie and those things aren't relevant in that.

2000 for just Overclockers would be very disproportionate allocation of units (to put it mildly) if that 10000 WW would even remotely represent reality (it's not). Overclockers is big in UK, but it's just one e-tailer and there are other big e-tailers in UK and in other major European countries.

Here is nVidia's revenue from different markets in 2011.

Revenue: (In thousands)
China $ 1,223,199
Taiwan 936,797
Other Asia Pacific 519,473
Europe 261,421
United States 297,265
Other Americas 305,154
Total revenue $ 3,543,309

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9NDI5MDIxfENoaWxkSUQ9NDQ2MjE2fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

Now think how relevant one e-tailer in UK is.

 

[Rangers]

I doubt almost anyone is buying 680's in China, if they even exist there. Come on now. It'll be Europe+USA at first, and UK is biggest market in Europe likely by far.

And I'm to believe Taiwan is 4X USA size? No.

Edit: ahh

Revenue by geographic region is allocated to individual countries based on the location to which the products are initially billed even if our customers’
revenue is attributable to end customers that are located in a different location.

So I guess China+Taiwan is all the board manufacturers buying Nvidia chips and then putting them on boards to sell to USA and Europe. So that chart is out.

 

[UniversalTruth]

Charlie may or may not be right about shipment figures, but one of his points is hard to argue with: only NVIDIA is openly complaining about 28nm yields, and Thomas Seifert did say that AMD was able to meet demand for their 28nm products last quarter.

That's hardly an achievement. What do they think? That if their product is priced at 300 and 500 demand would be one and the same?

NV can do it too. Put the 2000 price tag for the 680 and almost all of them will be widely available even with no need to manufacture more.

But they are not doing this. They keep relatively low pricing, sell everything and prevent AMD from doing additional sales.

 

[Rangers]

That's hardly an achievement. What do they think? That if their product is priced at 300 and 500 demand would be one and the same?

NV can do it too. Put the 2000 price tag for the 680 and almost all of them will be widely available even with no need to manufacture more.

But they are not doing this. They keep relatively low pricing, sell everything and prevent AMD from doing additional sales.

You're forgetting Nvidia has no choice but to price lower than their performance dictates because AMD has the stronger brand

 

[Rangers]

Now look at how they did in the market vs their competition.

I think they did OK, nothing unusual. So did the AMD products.

BTW nice change of tactics after being wrong the first time? What happened to change your original argument so hastily?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

So I guess China+Taiwan is all the board manufacturers buying Nvidia chips and then putting them on boards to sell to USA and Europe. So that chart is out.

Ok the chart wasn't all that, but you are underestimating the size of the Chinese market. Germany is also a huge market in Europe for PCs, all this is redundant anyway, because the very assumption that Overclockers would/could have gotten 20% of the world allocation is so beyond ridiculous that I've got no words for it.