Nvidia Ampere Discussion [2020-05-14]

What about sony? I still haven't been able to get in a preorder for ps5. Should they also have delayed, maybe christmas 2021 would be better console launch window time?

 

Is the store telling people their position in the preorder queue or is it a guess? Not sure what to extrapolate from the spreadsheet.

 

You shouldn't even expect any reasonable stock after December either. Rumors are, yields at Samsung's 8 nm node are so abysmal, that even though Samsung has hardly any customers for that node, output is still not even remotely where it should be.

That be said, is there any confirmed information if GA104 is also attempted at Samsung, or if NVidia has switched back to TMSC (even though that literally means waiting in line behind AMD, and a new tapeout)?

 

I dunno about what rumors say but I can see 3080 stock situation improving already, slowly albeit but steadily. Dec is a wildcard for sure because the demand will go even higher between Nov and Dec for the usual reasons but there's little reason to expect that it won't improve ever. Rumors or not.

GA104 is 8N too, per official information from Ampere whitepaper.

 

So if there would be any supply problems why has nVidia guided their Q3 gaming business at around $2,1 billions? This is up 25% from their Q2 result.
Maybe the demand is as huge as nVidia says it is?!

 

A lot of people in the world buying older cards and buing smaller cards than 3080. The impact of sales at the 3080-3090 cards should be minor! I think a lot of people saw, that ampere was only gaining 30% between 2080ti and 3080 a lot of people choose the cheeper and avaidable 2080ti.

You cann proof this, that the price of the 2080ti had a drop and is now rysing again:
https://geizhals.de/asus-rog-strix-geforce-rtx-2080-ti-oc-90yv0cc0-m0nm00-a1870857.html

If you look at the sales of a big Dansk seller you will see that Cards are barly avaidable:
https://www.computerbase.de/2020-10/nvidia-geforce-rtx-3000-serie-liefersituation/

The Seller order 9513 cards. The customer bought only 3718 cards. The Seller gets only 422 cards.

So the seller did know that the demand is high and because of sells of the 2080ti he orderded the right value (9513). Interesting is that his values were not correct. He had an order gab of around 5795 cards which he can't sell becaus not enought customer bought it.

An at least the 422 cards really show that there is a lag of supply. Only 11,5% of Customer ordes can be fullfilled and onyl 5% of seller orders.

 

AIBs, poor sausages, have to pay up-front?

 

Isnt this "Accounts receivable" for nVidia?

 

3080 is +30% and 2080Ti certainly isn't cheaper.

 

Sorry looked at the wrong value. It was 28% for 1080p and 40% at 1440p
https://www.computerbase.de/2020-09...t_in_2560__1440_wird_der_schub_etwas_groesser

But this is also not much and the 2080ti cards are avaidable from knowen sellers. 3090 you can buy only for a much higher price from unknowen sellers at ebay.

 

I don't know why you're ignoring the 3080 again really. This card is all the rage precisely because it's +30% to a much more expensive 2080Ti. No one would be buying the latter right now.
Your suggestion of people going and getting 20 series cards in higher quantities now after 30 series launch makes zero sense whatsoever.

 

But also 3080 cards are not avaidable. You can't buy it an a lot of people are not tech nerds like we are. They buy what they can get.

 

3080 cards are in short supply but they are not "aren't available". Many people actually get them.
A $700 GPU isn't something which is often bought by "not tech nerds" in the first place. But even if we entertain the idea of some regular Joe going into a store to get himself a new GPU - do you really see him getting a $1200 2080Ti or $1500 3090 instead of something cheaper? And why does this Joe suddenly decided to make this purchase now and not half a year ago?

 

No they are realy not avaidable. Look at the page of dansk reseller and how long is the waiting time. You wil get cards somone in march when you are lucky maybe in january.

A lot of cards have no income. That means they are not produced at the aibs because of shortage of the chips:
https://www.proshop.de/RTX-30series-overview

 

Why would I look at this page? If I'm shopping for a card I look at storefronts like Newegg etc.

No incoming means that the AIB hasn't allocated anything for shipping to that store in particular. Without knowing their prioritization in shipping products to various partners around the world you cannot say what it means beyond the fact that this store in particular isn't on the shipping list at the moment.

This page also shows that this store has ordered 2-10x more 3080 cards then they have customers for them atm. Not sure what to make of this.
And 3090 orders seem to be 30-50% fulfilled already? That's less than a month since it's launch.

 

Because you cann see there the orders and what they get with statment from the aibs:

If a big reseller store in Denmark don't get any card, how will it look in the rest of europe?

 

How exactly will this help me in getting a card?

 

It helps you realise that you won't get any card soon ore in the near future. You will get a card in march (if you have luck) or you willk pay expensive prices at ebay if you want to buy now. Maybe we have some luck and the aibs save the chips for 20gb version of ampere and we will see bigger supply when 20gb card arriving.

But also some people said that maybe GDDRX 6 is the issue of the supply chain, than the 20gb will make it much worse.

 

78 delivered cards is under 20% of their orders. They have 78 filled orders and 317 orders waiting to be filled. They have 80 cards incoming, but 15 of those are model that hasn't been bought by any customers yet, so that's only 65 orders that are getting filled.

This "particular store" is one of the biggest in northern Europe, serving Nordic countries, Germany, Austria and Poland, so it's more than "that store in particular".

 

Overclockers UK is receiving small shipments daily. Looks like board partners expect production volumes near month end.

https://www.overclockers.co.uk/foru...deliveries-how-to-cancel-your-order.18899277/