Shaderman-
Welcome to the board! Most people don't seem to make such informed statements in their first 4 posts.
But...
NV is dead dead dead (at least for this year).
As far as the high-end of the consumer discrete space goes, you're probably right. (Assuming your well-justified guess that NV35 is still 128-bit is indeed correct.) In terms of corporate strategy, I don't think so. There was an interesting comment (from Jen-Hsun I think) to the effect that Nvidia's 2003 revenues are expected to be roughly distributed as follows:
- 15% notebook GPUs
- 15% integrated (nForce)
- 15% workstation
- 20% XBox
- 35% all discrete consumer GPUs
NV30 may have few to no advantages over R300 for the consumer space (and a lot of disadvantages), but NV30GL has a lot of significant advantages over everything else for the DCC space, where FP32 support actually means something (and may in fact be close to a necessity, although I can't judge this); where it matters not one whit if ARB_fragment_program performance sucks compared to NV_fragment_program performance (and where DX9 doesn't even exist); where the extra costs of a 12-layer board, expensive (though in this case not jet-engine) fan, big expensive chip, etc. are negligible.
Even if it was a brilliantly successful design, clearly superior to whatever ATI had to offer, NV30 (by which I mean the high-end segment only--the equivalents of GFfx 5800 and 5800 Ultra) would be extremely hard pressed to account for 15% of Nvidia's total revenues. Plus, as high-margin as the high-end consumer cards may be, that's nothing compared to the margins on the workstation cards (essentially the same part for 3x the price). If Nvidia can really wrap up 15% of their revenues at those sorts of margins, they'd be idiots to let concerns about the high-end consumer space get in their way.
In case it's not clear, my new theory: instead of designing a high-end consumer chip with an afterthought workstation variant,
with NV30/NV30GL Nvidia designed a workstation chip with an afterthought high-end consumer variant. And, if those revenue projections are at all accurate, it was a brilliant decision.
So if NV30 was really targeted at the DCC space and not the consumer space, what does that say about NV31/NV34 performance and design? I dunno, maybe nothing. Certainly the 3DMark03 scores posted by the Inq are both plausible and none too impressive. Still, the fact remains that for quite some time Nvidia will be the only one with a DX9-compliant part in range of the mainstream OEM market (i.e. sub-$100). And assuming the 250/200 clocks we've seen for Chaintech's card are correct, perhaps actually quite nicely into the mainstream OEM market (sub-$80?). Will a DX9-compliant card with hardly enough performance to run DX8-era games fly as an OEM part? I dunno. My guess, though, is a disillusioned yes.
"Dead, dead, dead" looks dubious, dubious, dubious.