NPD November 2010

Holy cow! It's like we've gone into a time warp with all of the "Sony is doomed"-type posts. Easy on the hyperbole guys!

If they keep on with their mistakes they will indeed be doomed.

There is no need to think that Sony can't turn this thing around, but at this point, it won't happen for ps3.

They need to turn their attention to ps4.


I still don't know how either Sony or Nintendo can get into the controller-less interface without violating MS patents.
 
The first (?) incorporation of HDD into console was a failure because there was no content strategy to go with it.

Similarly, Blu-ray will plateau if BDA doesn't continue to grow the BD-Live part to generate more exclusive need for the stack.

At the time, was not the strategy that games could be installed and/or stream data from a much quicker hdd as opposed to an optical drive? I seem to remember, don't quote me, that developers were allegedly happy to hear of the standard inclusion, then no one used it simply because the dominant platform did not have one. Result = 3rd party developers did not use it.

This is working from memory as I run out the door :p
 
There was an article a while back, I haven't the time to hunt it up right now, about how they had actually done a great deal to price reduce the hdd...

I read MS also had an issue with consumers not seeing the value so it was a fixed cost which customers did not appreciate. Hence the xb360 with external hdd that needed to be purchased separately or included with the bundle.

They turned it into a money generator instead of a drag on profits.
 
If it's just to speed up installation, then the HDD would be a cost. If the HDD enabled download businesses, then it would generate additional revenue, potentially to offset the BOM cost.
 
I have no idea. If it's not in their cards, then there was no economic reason to include the Xbox HDD, which would make it a dead weight from a cost perspective.
 
If they keep on with their mistakes they will indeed be doomed.

There is no need to think that Sony can't turn this thing around, but at this point, it won't happen for ps3.

They need to turn their attention to ps4.

The consolidated needs (PS3 Does Everything) approach is not wrong. Unfortunately, Sony looks at it from its own perspective. It should look at the values from the consumers' perspective. They are also constrained by the short term "profit margin" goal set by Stringers. It slows them down and prevents them from using more aggressive market share strategies. They are exchanging the long term marketshare for incremental, sustainable profit. If applied wrongly, it is a short term, and hence, short sighted approach.

They don't have to wait until PS4 to fix this. They should start now by focusing on the right customers first. ^_^

They can also learn to consolidate their offerings today.
e.g., Doing an eBook Reader as a separate one-off business may be a waste of time in the long run if Sony doesn't have follow up moves. They might as well spend the $$$ on innovative BD-Live end user features, and the Qriocity stack. The latter can help Blu-ray Managed Copy, digital movies, eBook DRM. They can even turn every Blu-ray player into a P2P consumer distribution device if they want to (authenticated and copied via physical discs, referrer get a small cut). No need to wait for good ISP infrastructure everywhere.
 
If they keep on with their mistakes they will indeed be doomed.

There is no need to think that Sony can't turn this thing around, but at this point, it won't happen for ps3.

They need to turn their attention to ps4.


I still don't know how either Sony or Nintendo can get into the controller-less interface without violating MS patents.
Eh... I think it's a little too early for that. The PS3 still seems to be doing very well in Europe and Japan. People look at NPD sales and extrapolate them for the rest of the world. I realize this is an NPD thread, but your comments are in regards to Sony as a company and not just about US sales. They just started to profit from the PS3 and sales are still okay... why would they focus on the next console already?
 
If they keep on with their mistakes they will indeed be doomed.

There is no need to think that Sony can't turn this thing around, but at this point, it won't happen for ps3.

They need to turn their attention to ps4.


I still don't know how either Sony or Nintendo can get into the controller-less interface without violating MS patents.

Sony's making money on PS3 (finally) and selling consoles all over the world. This despite all of the mistakes. I think at this point the PS3 market is self-sustaining. It's large enough that it will continue to get multiplatform releases both with the 360 and Wii (thanks to Move) and Sony's internal studios can still produce a steady stream of exclusive content.

I'm not saying everything's rosy. Sony is watching as MS sees huge initial success with Kinect in a market that they are also trying to enter with Move. Whatever buzz Move might have been able to achieve in the US is being completely drown out. This is probably as much due to MS's marketing efforts as the merits of the device itself. In this case, though, I see the advertising as just an awareness campaign. The product, or at least people's perception of it, is selling itself. I think seeing commercials about Kinect is making people interested in it and (like the Wii) actually experiencing it is making people buy it.

If Sony fails to make inroads into this market, they are going to be hard-pressed to expand their userbase in any significant way. There are only so many "hardcore games" and all but a small minority will already have a PS3 or 360 by now.
 
The consolidated needs (PS3 Does Everything) approach is not wrong. Unfortunately, Sony looks at it from its own perspective. It should look at the values from the consumers' perspective.

IMO, this has been their biggest weakness this generation. If they had designed the PS3 with game developers and gamers in mind instead of corporate goals it would undoubtedly have been a better product for all of us. And the sales would have reflected that. The problem is, that wouldn't have been the best product for Sony. They needed the product to be what it was, but I think its market appeal has suffered as a result.
 
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I actually find it pretty remarkable that the 360 is still on an upward trend. Every year they sell more console's then the year before. While they have never had that breakout that the, Wii, PS2 and PS1 had they have steadily, in constant competition with the Wii on one side and the PS3 on the other, continued to expand their userbase, improve their product and generate an ever-increasing amount of revenue both for themselves and their business partners.
 
It's not just about how Sony's doing right now with sales - they're in a very deep hole financially from the starting losses of the PS3 and haven't got the brightest outlook to recover from it.

They wiped out all profits from the Playstation division, but that's not how it works. It's not a running tally.

If we're going to think that way, then will MS ever be able to make the money they lost on the original Xbox back? What sort of craptastic ROI are we talking about if it takes 10 years for them to get right back where they started? Clearly the game business is a sucker's investment, neither company should be in it, right[1]?

[1] Though the rest are fallacious, I think there's some merit to this last statement, so let's hope Sony and MS disagree with me.
 
I actually find it pretty remarkable that the 360 is still on an upward trend. Every year they sell more console's then the year before. While they have never had that breakout that the, Wii, PS2 and PS1 had they have steadily, in constant competition with the Wii on one side and the PS3 on the other, continued to expand their userbase, improve their product and generate an ever-increasing amount of revenue both for themselves and their business partners.

That's true. They even have a steady revenue stream from Live, they're probably the ones in the least hurry to 'reset' things with a new generation.
 
I'm not saying everything's rosy. Sony is watching as MS sees huge initial success

I'm still not sure I'd qualify the success as 'huge'. Bigger than Sony's, no doubt, but the leader in this race is Nintendo. They have the first-mover advantage, they have the install-base advantage, they even have the software advantage (see Dance Central vs. Just Dance 2).

Late last year, or maybe early this year I dismissed the 'Natal' vs. 'Sony wand' comparisons by saying that though Natal would naturally outsell the Sony solution, neither would even come close to the Wii at its peak (I was willing to go 90% of Wii numbers), which is what I'd categorize as a huge success. With the Wii selling 2M in Nov 2008 in NPD alone, I don't think these numbers really compare. Instead, we get a pair of successes, which is nice, but very uninteresting and inconclusive. (Unless we want to argue Kinect is supply-constrained? Despite some stores selling out, I haven't heard anything like what we saw for the Wii early on.)

Fake edit: taken in a vacuum, potentially 1M Kinects moved in November is very impressive as a product launch. But I have a feeling that's all we'll do, and forget that they don't exist in a vacuum. That the audience Kinect is trying to attract has been courted now for nearly 4 years.
 
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Gamasutra Exclusive: Black Ops For Xbox 360 Sells Nearly 5 Million In U.S.

call-of-duty-history-breakdown.png


http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...For_Xbox_360_Sells_Nearly_5_Million_In_US.php

Wow.

Tommy McClain
 
I'm still not sure I'd qualify the success as 'huge'. Bigger than Sony's, no doubt, but the leader in this race is Nintendo. They have the first-mover advantage, they have the install-base advantage, they even have the software advantage (see Dance Central vs. Just Dance 2).

Dance central is drawing on an install base of around 1 million, maybe 1.5 million. Just Dance is drawing on an install base of 32 million. A kinect game is far from an ideal comparison. And nintendo has a lead in install base, but that lead has been shrinking not growing.
 
I'm still not sure I'd qualify the success as 'huge'. Bigger than Sony's, no doubt, but the leader in this race is Nintendo. They have the first-mover advantage, they have the install-base advantage, they even have the software advantage (see Dance Central vs. Just Dance 2)..

I disagree, because the MS/Sony model isn't built just on hardware sales. It's built on downloads and an online market place.

Yes, the Wii was a winner from the get-go, selling hardware at a profit from Day 1 and selling as much as they did was a huge win for Nintendo. No doubt.

But the same reason why it doesn't matter if Sony reduces the price of the PS3 (unless they do so drastically), is the same reason why you can't say the Wii is the runaway success.

What the Xbox offers goes far beyond their hardware capabilities. The fact that they've been able to now come out with another piece of hardware (Kinect) that is now spurring even more sales is just such an incredible boon it's mind boggling.

There's also two things to take into consideration here. First is the fact RRoD from the 360. That was pretty much the WORST PR campaign you can ever imagine for ANY product. The Prius' acceleration and breaking problems don't even come close to the bad press the 360 suffered from the RRoD fiasco. Second is the huge loss that MS took on the original Xbox.

Yet, when you look at the situation today, you'll see that the original Xbox was an investment in the 360, and that without the losses from the original Xbox, LIVE never would have existed which is the primary reason (IMO) that the 360 will always retain its lead over the PS3 regardless of the price point.

Also, if you don't factor in the original Xbox losses, the 360 should RECOVER all the lost costs for the RRoD fairly soon, if they haven't already done so.

MS hasn't been perfect, and if they didn't have the cash backing of such a huge company as MS, they'd be just a footnote. But because they've been able to 'buy their way out of trouble', they were in a favorable position even before Kinect came to market.

Some times, you can throw all the cash you want at a problem and it will never go away. MS has been able to throw all they cash they want at multiple problems and the problems have not only gone away, they've positioned themselves almost exactly where they wanted to be at the start.

Having said that, I also believe that Nintendo is tickled pink about their situation and how they fared with the decisions that they made. But Nintendo is a bit of pickle as to what to do next. While MS has always had a clear vision of where they wanted to go, and they know what to do next.
 
I actually find it pretty remarkable that the 360 is still on an upward trend. Every year they sell more console's then the year before. While they have never had that breakout that the, Wii, PS2 and PS1 had they have steadily, in constant competition with the Wii on one side and the PS3 on the other, continued to expand their userbase, improve their product and generate an ever-increasing amount of revenue both for themselves and their business partners.

It's because their platform strategy is sound, they keep on top of daily execution, and do a lot of things right from the consumers' perspective. The end effect a platform holder wants to achieve is to lower customer acquisition cost continuously by stacking values, and customer referrals.

They adopt the tried-and-true market share first platform strategy. The online mechanism allows players to rope in their gamer friends easily and smoothly (It generates multiplier effects). They also ensure that key titles work best on their platform. Most importantly, they spent *a lot* of money marketing the brand, and making sure it shines. $500 million this fall is spent on Kinect alone ? During this shopping season, they also spend marketing dollars on discounts to boost their software sales number (It generates positive vibes for other gamers to see, and also make up $$$ spent via volume sales).

It's the exemplary American software platform strategy, extremely suitable for US's homogenous marketplace. But you need lots of $$$ upfront.



For Sony, they take the profit first strategy, and don't do any active management of perception and brand. As a result, you see the sales number bob up and down based on their daily execution. There is little or no marketing umbrella to sugar coat the services. Their marketing budget is very small compared to Microsoft. This is not a huge problem in the short term, but have serious long term implications.

They also create first parties content to generate exclusive value. But unlike a platform strategy, there is no multiplier effect in title business (May not lower customer acquisition cost consistently). You have to earn sales one title at a time unless you hit a jackpot (like COD). Basically, from the consumer perspective, Playstation is largely a content business for Sony, not necessarily a platform business (This is not true of course, but the first parties and Blu-ray are the main draw nonetheless).

When Sony deal with their customers, they are also a lot more haphazard in execution. Instead of tying everything back to one thing, Sony has Playstation Plus, Playstation Reward, Playstation Network. They also have video presentations like Qore and Pulse doing essentially the same thing (The free one dilutes the paid one >_<). The services are not coherent at all even after the Playstation Network survey months ago. Nice things were surveyed or demoed but very few made it out into real products. Yet strange services like Life with Playstation channels made it out for silly one-off placement deal ?

Because these services are not stacked and "closed loop", the network effect is gone, small profits are eaten up by the cost, people are (well, I am) confused. Instead of focusing on 1-2 big platform strategies, the team wasted a lot of effort doing tactical things for little benefits. Their software team is too small for so many different effort. I blame the top execs for allowing this to happen. I am thankful for the free online gaming services, the Playstation games, the media services, and Blu-ray. I am confused by the rest. ^_^ Playstation Home is somewhere in between, but could be bigger.




As for Nintendo, they are doing fine. They are a victim of the press' desire to find a story. *In general* I think the gaming press is the parasite of the gaming industry. I don't see much value add, or journalism there. Most of them read like a personal blog or forum post. >_< They need to grow up.
 
The once-per-decade Windows price (remember how long it took them to get us off XP?) is in no way comparable with the $10-per-title, $60-per-year-for-Live, 30%-off-horse-armor they get from Xbox games.

Yes, but the installed base of Windows is so huge that it still is by far the better business for them, and the one that made Xbox possible in the first place. Windows also helps MS to sell other things as well such as Office.
 
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