Which really doesn't change the argument. Gaming on the PC doesn't really benefit MS in any significant way. The console is a means to expand their market beyond windows and office. With Live and kinect they are gaining more control in peoples homes, which brings in new revenue streams.
NPD November 2010
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- npd npd november 2010
Which really doesn't change the argument. Gaming on the PC doesn't really benefit MS in any significant way. The console is a means to expand their market beyond windows and office. With Live and kinect they are gaining more control in peoples homes, which brings in new revenue streams.
i don't think xbox busniess is anything to scoff at .
How many pieces of software does MS move in a year because of the 360 and what % do they get from each sale ? Then you have hardware sales and xbox live sales. I would think the money is pretty big time .
Each time they launch a platform it costs them less in xbox land. If RROD didn't happen the 360 would be an amazing sucess and i think it will end up being one even with RROD.
Imagine next generation if they are able to place themselves in num 2 postion ww with the possibility of num 1 . In the states it seems like the 360 could be num 1 at the end of this generation
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Yeah the context escaped a little bit from me, but I would have posted anyways. I agree with everything you said and support the decision to go Xbox, but I read Assens post as downplaying Windows revenue, because it's only basically fixed sum once in a decade. I think the average upgrade time is far less and the installed base is so friggin huge, that if you want compare the two businesses against each other, it's the Windows business that looks much better. However when not pitted against each other, they are starting to complement each other really well these days...
Silent_Buddha
Legend
I think it's fair to say that MS is well on it's way. EDD has risen to 679 million. That considering it was shackled with a faltering Windows Mobile platform, a failed Kin launch, underperforming Zune sales, decreasing residual sales of PC games. That was for FY ending June 30th. So basically before the X360 S, Halo Reach, and Kinect.
EDD for next year should hit at least 1 billion due to the strength of the X360. Depending on whether Kinect continues to sell well, it's quite possible it'll hit 2+ billion. The big wildcard here is how WP7 does. But since phones are made and sold by other companies its exposure to risk here is much more limited than it was with the Kin and Zune players.
It's always hard to tell exactly how well or how badly the Xbox and Xbox 360 have performed as it's always been shackled with other money losing divisions. Even now when discussing performance breakdowns within EDD, X360 for FY 2010 was lumped in with the declining residual sales of MS PC properties (Age of Empires, Flight Simulator, etc.) which are still sold but not actively developed or promoted.
So it may or may not make it back by the 10 year anniversary of the original Xbox. I'd say probably doubtful, but without anyone but MS ever knowing exactly how well Xbox and X360 have performed it's impossible for us to say.
But be that as it may. Even then PS3 performance shouldn't be tied to PS2 performance. Just like X360 performance shouldn't be tied to Xbox performance. Both represent seperate and individual investment and allocation of R&D, etc. PS2 should only be judged with regards to R&D, revenues and/or losses accumulated during it's run. PS3 should only be judged with regards to R&D, revenues, and/or losses accumulated during it's run. In other words PS3 doesn't negate the gains from PS2. And Xbox doesn't negate the gains or profitability of X360.
I do agree, that for the most part it's the year to year revenue or losses that are the most important. R&D is a sunk cost. That said, I'm sure companies overall would like to see a positive return on investment at the end of the product life.
So, again PS2, good ROI. PS3, not yet. Might be possible if they go a full 10 years, quite possibly not if the launch PS4 sooner rather than later. Xbox big black hole and no ROI. X360, I'd argue has a positive ROI right now or will soon.
And if we ignore the original investment to launch each product, X360 is definitely doing well, while PS3 is finally gaining some traction. Both companies should have a good holiday quarter.
Regards,
SB
You're just making my point for me.
How close do you think MS will come to Nintendo before the generation is over? Of the three companies, Nintendo is in the best position to launch a new console, and the company with the most reason to.
Sure, that'd be ideal, but I think a return to profitability is more important to shareholders, since it shows things are under some semblance of control. Sure, all that lost money will probably make these companies gun-shy when it comes to the next generation and going too far on R&D.
PS3 is probably never going to go beyond negative ROI. I'm not sure the 360 has positive ROI yet, but I think it's possible.
PS3 is definitely not going to bomb all of a sudden. It continues to grow and do well. There was definitely a consensus from a lot of people that late in the generation the PS3 was going to find legs and take off, clearly passing 360 into the #2 spot. It doesn't seem like that will happen. Seems it will be neck and neck to the end. Every time a big first party title launches for PS3 there's a lot of people saying it will finally be the title to make the console take off, but it hasn't happened and isn't going to happen. First it was MGS4, Little Big Planet, Killzone2, Uncharted 2, God of War 3 and now GT5.
everything sold a bit higher than I thought, 8%up year on year (though CODBO + kinect distorts this no doubt)
youre forgetting that the ps2 has already done this
wow that would be nuts cause in the last quarter they actually shipped/sold the most consoles worldwide (yes even more than the wii/xbox360)
ppl are making that same mistake USA != the world
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Depends when the current generation is over. If it goes until 2015 and current trends continue, MS could easily pass them in NA .
And how is nintendo in the best position to launch a new console? Because their sales are fading the most? Not exactly an advantage.
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Well, off of the top of my head:
A Wii successor would only have to be a slight upgrade over the 360 and PS3 to be a major upgrade over the Wii.
Having already made stupid amounts of profit on the Wii they don't have to worry about recouping launch losses before ending this generation like the other 2 do.
Nintendo isn't as dependent (at all dependent?) on 3rd party franchises to satisfy their user base so they can launch whenever they please and know that they will have enough software support.
On the other hand, they are very far behind the other 2 when it comes to online services which I think will have greater and greater importance going forward. They are going to have to come up with something that is least competent before the next round.
And how do you market this slightly upgraded Wii to get your 80 million customers to buy a new one? Some of their 'current advantages' are actually weaknesses going forward because they lose (or don't gain) a lot of what made them popular 4 years ago.
I don't disagree. Still, on balance, I think they are in a better position to launch early than either MS or Sony are.
This is the crux of my position WRT PS3.
-They can't undercut xb360 to get a price advantage.
-The hardware has not proven to be a differentiator at this point.
-The BR advantage is minimal in buying patterns.
-The software lacks any kind of killer app to move hardware above and beyond xb360 at this point.
-The casual market which was PS2's bread and butter has shifted into Nintendo's arms and is now looking to upgrade into Kinect.
None of these things are likely to change for the better for Sony in the next few years.
Hence my position that Sony needs to focus on ps4.
As many others including myself have said, PS3 is fine as is, it will continue to be slightly profitable, likely won't make up for losses but what's done is done. Keeping on the same path they are on now WRT PS3 strategy is fine, but they need to ensure ps4 does not repeat the same mistakes.
And the same goes for psp2. I PRAY that they don't try to simply push a higher powered psp onto the market. PSP is already the dominant graphics handheld (aside from iPhone etc) and sales pale in comparison to DS.
The market is obviously not looking for a higher powered psp.
Mistakes like these will doom Sony in the long run. I just hope Sony can avoid them and get their games biz back on track.
I agree.
However, what do they launch with?
Who do they target?
How do they compel this target market to adopt Wii2?
I think that's the biggest problem for Nintendo. They don't have a clear path to upgrade for their consumers.
-Controller-free experience has been captured by MS, and protected by patents.
-Upgraded graphics has also been captured by MS and Sony this gen.
About the only thing Nintendo has going for them is domination in the dedicated handheld gaming market (which is shrinking), domination in the casual market (which is shifting to nextgen machines) and Nintendo classic licenses. The last part is good because Nintendo can always fall back on their software, but I really see them having difficulty in selling a Wii2 to the casuals when there are better alternatives in xb360 and ps3.
Casuals want cheap so that leaves out an uber console.
Hardcore gamers want top end graphics, but also want software that appeals to them which Nintendo lacks and has had difficulty in drawing support of 3rd party devs to fill that niche, even on a box with crazy marketshare.
Good luck to N, but I don't see it.
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Not in the grand scale, but why would MS launch a new console when their sales are growing? Sony just reached profitability. Nintendo took a conservative approach, they're sitting on a lot of money and yes, their sales are dropping. Plus they have first-mover advantage, the other companies will follow what Nintendo does at this point.
Even if bluray is becoming a selling factor again (which i don't believe ) the drives are coming down in cost and if they do hit parity with dvd drives then MS can simply make a new slim model with bluray in it .
I think the VGA's this year is telling , NPH used kinect as the new standard in his jokes when talking about motion gaming and the future of games. Not the move or even the wii. Here in the states its just the more popular console and while the ps3 has some good points , i don't think it will matter in the long run.
I also think that if ms continues the momentum into next year sony is in serious trouble. Yes its only the NPD but this is a large market and alot of devs will be looking at it . It will give MS an easier time of getting exclusive DLC or even games that will make sonys rise even harder.
I think the VGA's this year is telling , NPH used kinect as the new standard in his jokes when talking about motion gaming and the future of games. Not the move or even the wii. Here in the states its just the more popular console and while the ps3 has some good points , i don't think it will matter in the long run.
I also think that if ms continues the momentum into next year sony is in serious trouble. Yes its only the NPD but this is a large market and alot of devs will be looking at it . It will give MS an easier time of getting exclusive DLC or even games that will make sonys rise even harder.
It's interesting because Kinect is the natural evolution of motion gaming. That became clear to me the moment I saw the Natal. Going forward, it will obviously be the preferred method as it allows full body tracking. Not to say it will never be supplemented with a controller, but 3d full body tracking is the way forward.
Regarding the BR drive swap, I'm not sure it will be as simple as that.
Drive load speeds would need to be as fast as the native DVD drive in xb360 which is currently faster than the BR drive in PS3.
So they would need a faster BR drive which may be more expensive.
MS has no reason to drop a new console until a competitor forces their hand.
Similar to Sony with ps3.
The ps3 only has a 2x drive , a 4x drive should be a good replacement for the dvd drive in the 360.
