What I would do would be to go with HD DVD, it's cheap, hundreds of replicators can produce them already, and it's very difficult to hack, since the drives aren't available. Change the protocol a little, and you have a situation where the pirates are at a huge disadvantage,
NPD November 2010
- Thread starter AlNom
- Start date
-
- Tags
- npd npd november 2010
Well sure, Just Dance 2 sold to an install base of around 40 million, or whatever the current numbers are for the US, compared to ~1 million for Kinect.
This is one of those rare situations where I agree with others that your install base is going to affect things slightly.
Regards,
SB
For a platform play, sales will always be a percentage of the install base. It's not rare at all. All titles are subjected to the same factor.
They also have their own reasons to perform at the current level.
Kinect games have done well due to excellent conceptualization, packaging and strong marketing. It's a platform play.
I suspect exclusive Move BR games sold poorly because Sony sold the concept short (It's "only" an accessory so far), save on marketing, and were cannibalized by free software. But we need real numbers not some vague Pachter speak. Even if the numbers are hard to come by, they may be needed to fill in the logic holes.
From Sony's perspective, it's probably more interesting to see if software sales meet their projection, and whether the savings in marketing and development is "worth" it. MS has to deduct their marketing outlay from their revenue.
What do you have in mind ? Neither HD DVD and Blu-ray passed rudimentary piracy tests during the early HDM days.
You know, I'm not aware of a casual gamer outside of my time on the internet who has any idea at all what Kintect is, let alone a desire to talk about it or actually buy one. To them motion controls have been done before and its synonymous with Nintendo. I'll be interested to see if that actually changes over the next several months, I doubt it though.
I'll reply to Chefs post when I have more time.
I'll reply to Chefs post when I have more time.
What do you have in mind ? Neither HD DVD and Blu-ray passed rudimentary piracy tests during the early HDM days.
I think his point is a proprietary format you base around HD-DVD and you eliminate home brew piracy.
An anecdotal rarely pass a smell test, yours is no exception.
Doesn't matter if its 'really' a security measure or not. The goal is to reduce piracy, eliminating the ability of the average 15 year old to replicate the discs is a huge step. It will do little to prevent serious corporate piracy, but there's really not much that's reasonably economical and doesn't massively burden paying customers that will.
This thread is full of opinions with no basis to them what so ever, mine should not need to be any exception
If that's your answer, then yes, it doesn't matter. The security will likely be broken early. The hackers usually deal with a black box anyway. "Proprietary-ness" is not a security measure technically speaking. "Security by Obscurity" is a technical term (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_through_obscurity)
This thread is full of opinions with no basis to them what so ever, mine should not need to be any exception
Touche ! I get labelled when asking for more/better data. ^_^
Reminds me that this is only a forum thread.
yea there was so few burners out there and very little media .
Although I wonder if they would make capcity changes. Perhaps going to 17 or 20 gigs per layer. I believe 17 was a plan of hd dvd so going with a new drive would be capable of it. 34 gigs should be enough for next gen games.
2x drives are only 9MB/s tho i guess considering the speeds bluray is up to it wouldn't be to hard to copy.
To bad Holographic discs aren't big yet. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/technology/2009/04/a_new_format_war.html
with a 120MB/s transfer rate it be great for filling up cheap ram and ms would be able to put games out on a disc the size of a umd .
Was never talking about the hackers. I'm talking about the ability to get the iso onto a disc format your box can read.
I should also mention I don't really agree with the use of a proprietary tech because it will invariably suffer from a lack of economies of scale meaning the initial cost will probably be a bit higher and it will stay closer to that value, although I really don't know how far along they got with HD-DVD.
Who cares? What does any of that have to do with anything?
Last edited by a moderator:
...because saying "Proprietary security for HD DVD" is like saying nothing at all (e.g., like "Proprietary security for DVD" ). We have to know the design to know if it's secure. It's a casual question for bkilian, if you don't know his answer, then may be we should drop the topic. ^_^
A revised HD DVD protocol means existing hardware is useless. Hackers would have to obtain blank media and burners (from where?) to make copies of the discs. They can crack it all day but eventually you need to transfer the data. If they don't have something to transfer TO, then it doesn't matter that disc protection is broken.
I see Move commericals on TV all the time. It's just that people who find Kevin Butler funny are those who couldn't wait to get a PS3 at $599 and run around with SonyexclusiveX.gif as forum pic all over the internet laughing like he's the next Dave Chapelle. For general consumers, they ads are terrible.
I see Move booths at Best Buys in the area (bay area and it's the only electronic store I goto). I just don't see people lined upto try Move like they do at the Kinect booth.
Move has a very "me too!" feel about it. I'd hate to agree with Patcher but Move has WiiHD written all over it. The problem being for Sony being that the games are sterlie and feel life less to play. Accuracy isn't an endall. If it was, the Wii would have been a failure!
Sony needs to figure out what it would take to make a fun, light and playful experience for the casual and they'll come knocking. Once they find this, go market it properly. Show people playing this game and having a fun. That'd be a good start.
btw, as someone on Gaf pointed out, there are no "move" named titles in US so the 200k combined is for all Move exclusive titles. You can debate this endlessly but it is what it is.
corduroygt
Banned
Or MS should have spent the extra buck per DVD unit and made its firmware better encrypted, and more importantly, updatable via system updates. Also another 25 cents to put some pads so the discs wouldn't get scratched would help too...
No need to go through a proprietary disc format, if you make sure the drive is unhackable, and updatable just in case.
thatdude90210
Regular
I remember all the bragging about "true1:1" or mm precision, etc. And the question was what are they going to do, make sports simulator where no one but real professional can excel at? Not many people can hit a 95mph fastball.
Realistic isn't always fun. A reviewer (I think it was at the old firingsquad) labeled Grand Prix Legends, the most realistic racing simulator at the time, "the hardest game ever made." Of course it sold like crap, but the diehards loved it.
Realism is rarely fun in games, but lack of accuracy is what pinned the Wiimote to nothing else than those Sports and Minigame-collections. It totally sucks for anything else, Nintendo themself apparently know this since most (all?) of their recent game dont use motion-controls in any significant way. How many Sports/Party-games do you need?
You can always artificially gimp accuracy, if you need more than what you got you are screwed.
The funny thing about all of these motion control discussions is that Microsoft now actually has a pretty good justification for a more powerful console to replace the Xbox 360, camera performance! It is funny I realised I had given up hope that a more powerful console would be needed for gameplay reasons aside from the usual prettiness of early next generation titles with little else changed.
Whats the current camera resolution? I think its 320/240 right based off a 640/480 stream, just digitally zoomed to the relevant part of the scene.
320*240 = 76,000 pixels
1280*720 = 921,000 pixels
However the latter would also preferrably have lower processing time than the former!
Maybe thats one very good reason why we're talking about a longer generation? We probably won't get 28nm until 2012, 22nm until at least 2013 probably? Perhaps a next generation camera system would be such a hobble on performance that they would have to wait until the 22nm node before the release their next generation consoles. If the consoles themselves are devoting so much of their behind the scenes processing power to either background tasks or camera interfaces, how much will be left to actually run the games?!
Whats the current camera resolution? I think its 320/240 right based off a 640/480 stream, just digitally zoomed to the relevant part of the scene.
320*240 = 76,000 pixels
1280*720 = 921,000 pixels
However the latter would also preferrably have lower processing time than the former!
Maybe thats one very good reason why we're talking about a longer generation? We probably won't get 28nm until 2012, 22nm until at least 2013 probably? Perhaps a next generation camera system would be such a hobble on performance that they would have to wait until the 22nm node before the release their next generation consoles. If the consoles themselves are devoting so much of their behind the scenes processing power to either background tasks or camera interfaces, how much will be left to actually run the games?!
the razz was clearly tongue-in-cheek and I hope you nor no-one else Stateside took offense. NPD figures are for NA and it makes sense to talk about the NA market. When people go talking about console manufacturers practically throwing in the towel, that's worldwide talk, not just NA talk, and TheChefO is extrapolating the whole console space future on an NPD report from NA. Hence I pull his leg over with a comical stereotype.
No, I have no opinion on what 360 would ahve done without Kinect. I just disagree that Kinect is a small contributor and not a significant one.
That's a good idea. Not sure it's workable, perhaps it's more for a financial forum than a 3D tech forum? Suggest it to the powers-that-be in the Forum Feedback thread and see what they say.
More than one person inside the industry has suggested a consolidation of players and maybe MS teaming up with Sony. That's how MS wanted it to start in the first place. If Google and Apple or whoever starts making inroads, partnerships are bound to appear. Whoever goes it alone is going to have the disadvantage.
Thanks for the reply Shifty! With your first point, I would say that if someone is in the position such as Microsoft for a region like Japan. I think we could have an honest discussion about them vacating THAT market. Now, I am of two minds with this perhaps its me being a gamevester (not a word) it is easy for me to say, "If I were Microsoft I would bail on Japan" of course one could look at what the games division has contributed to the overall company and say the EXACT same thing (as some analysts and other shareholders have). My other mindset is that as long as they continue to show growth they should stay. While I recognize people look at the LTD of 360 in Japan and laugh but keep in mind the first XBOX never even sold-through its initial shipment.
When I look at the HD consoles in Japan and then look at the overall handheld plus Wii numbers it is clear it is still a very significant market but when looking at the HD's their LTDs, again, their LTDs are akin to what the 360 and PS3 will move in just THIS holiday. This is not to relegate Japan to some second or third class (my [former] professional feelings towards their coding notwithstanding) but it is in my admittedly US biased mind as to WHY the US is deemed important if not the most important market and the sentiment of the citizens of the country to feel self-important.
To your second point, I concur, there is no doubt in my mind that Kinect was a MAJOR contributor to the 360's excellent November.
Regarding the financials, posts are fine, I don't really think much needs to change. Most of the financial sites I visit understand little of the gaming market though the end recommendations can be the same though for completely different reasons. What I DO think the financials understand better is the "non-gamer" or "pseudo-gamer" market WAY better than a B3D or NeoGAF. When you look at the analysts who aren't also self-proclaimed hard-core gamers it was easy for them to see the Wii phenomenon and its continuation when "we" were thinking "FAD"; I also have yet to see them respond in a negative consensus regarding Kinect. I would add they (the infamous they) don't have anything negative to say regarding Move but it is typically mentioned as if it were an afterthought.
EDIT: OT - I should add that most gamers and certainly the games press don't understand development or publishing...AT. ALL. Which is why one of the first things you hear out of every press member that has finally made it to the dev side, "It is way different than I thought...now I know why you can't do certain things". I refuse to call any member a games journalist though gamasutra and a couple individuals from here have always had better questions regarding development than most.
Please differentiate between what NPD tracks and what they RELEASE to the PUBLIC. Of course, those items are tracked...!
