NPD November 2010

[DuckThor Evil]

Before this gen only three home consoles ever had sold over 50 million units (Nes, PS1 and PS2) That hall of fame is going to be doubled soon as all three consoles this gen are going to get past that milestone.

 

[Toaddio]

But not on the strength of their controllers, which is TheChefO's point. People bought Wii because of the controller. People bought (and will buy both obviously) 360+Kinect because of the controller. PS2 never sold because it had dual sticks offering a novel gaming experience. Controller as a differentiator is a 'done deal', with both wands and 3D cameras no longer being new exciting tech next gen. It'll all be old hat, the novelty worn off, with no-one eager to buy a next-gen console because "it has this amazing new camera interface where you don't have a controller but just act in the game." All those shoppers will be buying into this gen.

But what the hell does any of that have to do with Sony and Nintendo disappearing from the market?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You adding the razz notwithstanding we get numbers for two places US + JAPAN now this being an NPD thread and drawing conclusions based on NPD numbers which happens to cover one of gamings largest and most significant regions could surely keep the "you guys think you are the world" sentiment to a simmer.

the razz was clearly tongue-in-cheek and I hope you nor no-one else Stateside took offense. NPD figures are for NA and it makes sense to talk about the NA market. When people go talking about console manufacturers practically throwing in the towel, that's worldwide talk, not just NA talk, and TheChefO is extrapolating the whole console space future on an NPD report from NA. Hence I pull his leg over with a comical stereotype.

What I also gather from your statement is that you are under the belief that the 360 would have also seen a 25% decline in November sales...

No, I have no opinion on what 360 would ahve done without Kinect. I just disagree that Kinect is a small contributor and not a significant one.

As a pro-sales and numbers guy, I would be all for a sub-forum or even an updated sticky of Worldwides sales...

That's a good idea. Not sure it's workable, perhaps it's more for a financial forum than a 3D tech forum? Suggest it to the powers-that-be in the Forum Feedback thread and see what they say.

The natural progression of the console market given that it is in effect like the HD format wars as they fight to be the medium you use to play your games on is towards a monopoly.

More than one person inside the industry has suggested a consolidation of players and maybe MS teaming up with Sony. That's how MS wanted it to start in the first place. If Google and Apple or whoever starts making inroads, partnerships are bound to appear. Whoever goes it alone is going to have the disadvantage.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yes, but as we've seen, the interface game is pretty much wrapped up. The revolution which was started by Nintendo has pretty much been finished by MS. Quibble on the details if you like...

But I don't disagree, as replies to others on this topic show.

Software
Hardware
Servies

Yes, but the point is Nintendo already ahve their own money. Why do they need someone else to support them?

None of which addresses how they will compete with Kinect.

With their own camera solutions, surely. I do not think MS own every IP solution regards this tech. Sony still have sterescopic vision as an option, for example. It's premature to say no-one but MS will have depth-based camera interfacing for the next decade or three.

Sure nobody knows the future with absolute certainty, but one can draw some conclusions with what is factually presented in the here and now to predict how these facts will likely shape the future.

40% market share for MS, 20% for Sony, right? weather forecasters use facts frmo the here and now to predict patterns in the near term, and often can't even get 24 hours in advance right because their models are inaccurate. And we've all seen enough of Pachter's wild speculations to know 'likely' outcomes for one person can look dubious to someone else of a different POV, meaning the real likely outcomes are lost amongst personal preferences. You can see here, an outcome that strikes you as probable strikes others, looking at exactly the same facts, as fairly improbable.

Edit- As for the one console for all, I have no illusions about what ps2 did or did not do or to whom it catered to. The big difference here is that Kinect is going from a hardcore games console which few casuals owned, to a console capturing people that were afraid to touch a gamepad. All under the same console, and under the same brand. THAT is impressive (from a marketing perspective). Ps2 conversely never was a targeted console by design. It was affordable and offered games of all types to capture every demographic possible.

I flatly disagree. SingStar, EyeToy, Buzz, kids games, hardcore games - Sony deliberately targeted all audiences, specifically minority demographics. They didn't do it to its fullest extent, but they did do it. The difference is one of degree, how much 360 can reach a more casual audience. And even if Kinect likely goes on to selll gangbusters, it's still currently sold less than EyeToy did - casuals who had never played a console game in their life still ended up buying PS2 to play EyeToy, and SingStar. PS2 was definitely a targeted console by design.

You'll recall, I was one of the few (only?) ones here saying Sony was in for a world of hurt at the $600 launch price. Also one of the few (only?) saying BR was a mistake because it would force a HDD and expensive BOM.

I don't recall many people saying Sony were easily going to sell the most consoles with a $600 console, and whether BRD was a mistake or not isn't easily qualified such that a prediction of as much can be measured accurate or not.

Also, two things that happened after the poll which I did not foresee...

And it's the changing nature of the market (and life in general) that means we can't forsee anything at distance with much certainty. Who forsaw Kinect in 2005 and that 360 would get a second growth spurt? Who imagined Sony demonstrating amazing next-gen camera based tech, and having an established camera-based heritage, in 2005, and then doing sod-all with it? Even less futuristic for the time, who predicted the transition to 65nm would be such a weak improvement over 90nm and result in still large and costly boxes?

Your predictions of Sony and Nintendo needing a partner exclude the possibilitiy of something else happening, an unexpected change that isn't on the cards (or in the tea leaves) now to consider. A simple possibilty - Sony produce a console with sterescopic camera providing depth detection, Ninty use TOF, and patents with Sony and Nintendo prevent MS releasing their own wand controllers, leaving MS at an interface disadvantage as they can't offer the full experience Ninty and Sony have. Perhaps Sony also integrate their Cell Networked devices architecture, encouraging wider adoption of Sony devices for synergy as they share workloads and improve their media experiences, giving them a huge market for their chips accelerating cost reduction through mass production. Their PSN service will have addressed all the idiotic mistakes of the current version and go toe-to-toe with MS. You'd have a situation where MS has no particular advantage in hardware, services, or features. I doubt that'll happen, there's as much chance of Sony bumbling about as cleverly pulling all their resources together and working to a solid vision, but it's on the cards, one possibility from many.

 

[temesgen]

Before this gen only three home consoles ever had sold over 50 million units (Nes, PS1 and PS2) That hall of fame is going to be doubled soon as all three consoles this gen are going to get past that milestone.

I would think that this is largely expected, the generation that grew up playing Atari and Coleco still buy and have kids that need to buy consoles for too. In other words the base is growing and with the advent of casual gaming that will expand the potential audience even further.

 

[TheChefO]

But I don't disagree, as replies to others on this topic show.

ok

Yes, but the point is Nintendo already ahve their own money. Why do they need someone else to support them?

Perhaps they don't need cash, but pardon me for being skeptical in Nintendo successfully targeting the hardcore crowd as they haven't done so in well over two decades, if ever. Competing with MS in the casual market will eventually lead to their downfall as they have no advantage other than their first party licenses which don't hold much water with casuals. MS has worked to create 3rd party relationships and if that translates to better sales on xb360 for 3rd party devs, that will surely lead to better dev support for Kinect. Not to mention filling the role of the "all encompassing console".

With their own camera solutions, surely. I do not think MS own every IP solution regards this tech. Sony still have sterescopic vision as an option, for example. It's premature to say no-one but MS will have depth-based camera interfacing for the next decade or three.

Perhaps they can match an equivalent 3d camera interface, that leaves software, hardware, and services to compete on. None of which I would give the edge to Nintendo in. Sony on the other hand is in a better position to compete, but financially will have a more difficult time going toe to toe with MS on their own.

40% market share for MS, 20% for Sony, right?

For the record, my initial prediction was 33% even split across the board.

PS2 was definitely a targeted console by design.

We're saying the same thing here in different ways.

As I said:

It was affordable and offered games of all types to capture every demographic possible.

I'm not discrediting what Sony did with ps2. I'm saying it is impressive that MS was able to effectively take a hardcore targeted console, and tack on casuals under the same brand and hardware.

I don't recall many people saying Sony were easily going to sell the most consoles with a $600 console, and whether BRD was a mistake or not isn't easily qualified such that a prediction of as much can be measured accurate or not.

BR will not doubt be of some benefit to Sony as a royalty generator for BR movies, but it is without question an anchor to the games aspect of the console as it directly lead to higher costs, lower marketshare, and lower profits (for the games division). I'm not sure how anyone can rationally argue any different. Was BR the best thing for Sony as a whole? Perhaps, but to think it didn't negatively affect the games division is a little foolish.

And it's the changing nature of the market (and life in general) that means we can't forsee anything at distance with much certainty.

Indeed.

But with what information we have now, this is where I'm placing my chips. If I'm Sony/Nintendo, I'm taking steps necessary now to counter this potentially negative future.

Your predictions of Sony and Nintendo needing a partner exclude the possibilitiy of something else happening, an unexpected change that isn't on the cards (or in the tea leaves) now to consider. A simple possibilty - Sony produce a console with sterescopic camera providing depth detection, Ninty use TOF, and patents with Sony and Nintendo prevent MS releasing their own wand controllers, leaving MS at an interface disadvantage as they can't offer the full experience Ninty and Sony have. Perhaps Sony also integrate their Cell Networked devices architecture, encouraging wider adoption of Sony devices for synergy as they share workloads and improve their media experiences, giving them a huge market for their chips accelerating cost reduction through mass production. Their PSN service will have addressed all the idiotic mistakes of the current version and go toe-to-toe with MS. You'd have a situation where MS has no particular advantage in hardware, services, or features. I doubt that'll happen...

And the last line is pretty much it.

As is, with things the way they are and where they are headed based on what we know of the here and now and what we know of the past, it points to my admittedly controversial position that Sony and Nintendo will find themselves in, by 2020.

Sure, MS could find themselves broke by a class action lawsuit that crushes the company financially and renders them a shell of their former self, but those things aren't predictable outcomes. One could argue innovation isn't a predictable outcome either, and there is some truth to that. But I doubt Sony or Nintendo will have an ace up the sleeve to dramatically change the outcome I've outlined.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Matt's NPD article is up on gamasutra now.

The pie charts are certainly an eye opener.

46% of current generation hardware revenue (not counting handhelds) was X360.
49% of current generation software revenue (not counting handhelds) was X360
64% of current generation accessories revenue (not counting handhelds) was X360.

This despite no price drops and Kinect priced at 149 USD.

That gives MS a lot of options if demand slows for either the console or Kinect. I'm fairly confident that if supply manages to overshadow demand for Kinect, we'll see a price drop to 99 USD.

And I found this particularly distressing for Sony with regards to Move...

According to Wedbush's Pacter, PS3 titles with “Move” in the title have sold fewer than 200,000 units collectively. (That doesn't count games that have been retrofitted for Move compatibility.)

It's quite likely that Dance Central on its own sold more than all Move titled software in November.

As well the following, which makes me particularly sad...

As for Sony's other systems, the PS2 and PSP, we have little to say. The PSP's hardware sales of about 288,000 units were practically flat in November compared to November 2009. At the same time, software sales have tumbled further, to about half the level seen in November last year.

It is becoming extremely difficult to explain why hardware sales continue at an extremely modest pace while software sales go to zero, outside of some explanation involving firmware hacks and illegally distributed software copies.

It makes me wonder how well the PSP would have done if not hampered by piracy almost immediately after launch. Hardware continues to sell well due to hacked firmware, but software sales have dropped to half of what it was a year ago in the US apparently.

That makes me sad as I really liked my PSP.

Regards,
SB

 

[fearsomepirate]

I'm surprised Nintendo's lackluster software hasn't come up (in the pages I've read, anyway). I think that's the key thing that's siphoned off Wii momentum, not Kinect, and certainly not Move. Wii Sports, Mario Kart Wii, Wii Fit, Wii Sports Resorts, and New Super Mario Bros were all killer apps. But lately, they seem to have been doing...I don't know what. I'm not sure what brought on Super Mario Galaxy 2 (which wasn't a failure, but significantly undersold Galaxy 1) and Metroid: Other M. DKC4 looks to be a hit, but not a mega-hit. It's comparable to their missteps with the user-generated content stuff (Animal Crossing and Wii Music), but this time in the opposite direction of more self-indulgent 3D glitzfests that the market is decidedly unenthusiastic about. Nintendo originally pitched the Wii as a platform to turn software development around, but the last year has been more like "Gamecube Plus" than anything unique.

 

[patsu]

But not on the strength of their controllers, which is TheChefO's point. People bought Wii because of the controller. People bought (and will buy both obviously) 360+Kinect because of the controller. PS2 never sold because it had dual sticks offering a novel gaming experience. Controller as a differentiator is a 'done deal', with both wands and 3D cameras no longer being new exciting tech next gen. It'll all be old hat, the novelty worn off, with no-one eager to buy a next-gen console because "it has this amazing new camera interface where you don't have a controller but just act in the game." All those shoppers will be buying into this gen.

Then there will be other differentiating factors for next gen...Maybe a "Netflix" model that lets you play an unlimited amount of older games for a flat monthly fee (that's still rendered on the local hardware, not an Onlive type thing). Maybe proper 3D, maybe a tablet interface done well, maybe a properly working powerglove in conjunction with a camera to provide accurate finger tracking, etc. It's not like every game changer that's ever going to be invented has been invented, or is 20 years away, is it?

Not to mention some incremental improvements can be huge game changers. Everybody thought "phone with a touch screen" was done years ago until the iPhone came along.

There's actually one more trump card coming next year with the 3DS as well.

Yeah... growth or casual gamers do not necessarily mandate new controllers or even hardware. The applications/games deliver the final experience. It should be possible to attract great consumer interest with software on existing hardware.

There is still a large void in casual games (not just singing, dancing, and exercise). While platform is important for businesses, the game concept and content are what consumers "use".

EDIT:

And I found this particularly distressing for Sony with regards to Move...

"According to Wedbush's Pacter, PS3 titles with “Move” in the title have sold fewer than 200,000 units collectively. (That doesn't count games that have been retrofitted for Move compatibility.)"

Does that include Sports Champions and other Move games without "Move" in the title ? If not, Pachter has wasted his time with an irrelevant data point.

If yes, muahaha... Sony should have seen this coming. Already raised the alert months ago. They under-sold "Move" as a concept. Most of the games feel too similar to Wii. The existing Move patched games may help to move the new controllers, but they cannibalize on new Move game sales (because most are free). Will have to see their second wave of Move applications.

THQ's supply constrainted uDraw peripheral sold 190K with software. There are still many applications for Move that Sony was (is ?) blind to.

The PSP's hardware sales of about 288,000 units were practically flat in November compared to November 2009. At the same time, software sales have tumbled further, to about half the level seen in November last year.

It is becoming extremely difficult to explain why hardware sales continue at an extremely modest pace while software sales go to zero, outside of some explanation involving firmware hacks and illegally distributed software copies.

We also have a thread on this. Regrettably, some felt that piracy will not hurt the platform. ^_^

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Does that include Sports Champions and other Move games without "Move" in the title ? If not, Pachter has wasted his time with an irrelevant data point.

If yes, muahaha... Sony should have seen this coming. Already raised the alert months ago. They under-sold "Move" as a concept. Most of the games feel too similar to Wii. The existing Move patched games may help to move the new controllers, but they cannibalize on new Move game sales (because most are free). Will have to see their second wave of Move applications.

Neither Sports Champions nor Kinect Adventures were counted for NPD as they were bundled and only available with the respective accessories. Just like software in official console bundles aren't counted by NPD as software sales.

They also mentioned titles where Move controls were either added in or retrofit (in the case of existing games), but didn't use those for comparison. They rightfully pointed out there's no way to know how well they would have sold if Move had not launched. And no way to even know how many people with Move actually bought it.

So only titles with Move in the title or that required Move to play were counted.

As well as the whole mess with trying to determine what software was moved due to Move, it's hard to determine just how much of consumer word of mouth is due to Sony underselling/undermarketing it and just consumers feeling it's just Wiimote 2.0.

Had Eyetoy been as successful as the Wii was, consumers may have had a similar reaction to Kinect even with all the marketing from MS.

In other words, had Wii not been a success or had not launched, Move may have as much word of mouth as Kinect among casuals and non-console (so no X360/PS3/Wii) consumers.

Then again maybe not as their marketing focused on different types of users. MS went after both casuals and a demographic that many on this forum doubted existed, people that wanted to game but were intimidated by console controls. And their message and games were pinpoint focused on that.

Sony on the other hand played it conservatively. Marketing it as a controller that lets you play your core titles in a different way. A more accurate wand than Wiimote (way to shoot yourself in the foot). It's almost like they focused too much on the accuracy and technology of the controller, than on the "fun" factor. And even their games go that direction. I don't know many people that have Move, but those that do make an interesting observation.

Sports Champions is perhaps more "accurate," but Kinect Sports is more fun. And even on the accuracy part there's almost a 50/50 split with some thinking that Kinect more accurately reflects their movements than Move. Table tennis was one. I think part of that is that you may have more freedom of movement rather than any 1:1 accuracy. Sometimes perception is more important than reality.

And that's the thing I see quite a lot of. Move getting big nods for accuracy and capability, but not a lot about how "fun" it is. While Kinect on the other hand gets all kinds of negative remarks but also significantly more comments about how "fun" it is from people that have used it.

Yes, I realize "fun" is probably due more to the software than the controller. But the fact that people don't perceive the Move games to be as "fun" as the Kinect games is part of that whole difference between Sony and MS' approach.

And again, as I noted above. If Wii had not launched or had not been a smash hit, would people be having more "fun" with the current Move games?

Regards,
SB

 

[patsu]

Sports Champions not counted. What about EyePet, The Fight, ProStroke Golf, blah ? There are also quite a few Move PSN titles (5-7 titles). Also, the number doesn't cover Move compatible games like TigerWood ?

If true, I'm afraid we don't have to pity over Move (even ignoring the patched games for Move support). Pachter may have wasted his time scripting/tallying the numbers.

Sports Champions is perhaps more "accurate," but Kinect Sports is more fun.

That's your opinion by the way. I tried both and they have their charm.

 

[AzBat]

PSN titles are not retail titles the target of NPD numbers. Move compatible games can't be determined if they were bought for the Move support or not. Pachter did fine, but I feel you'll find something else to complain about. LOL

Tommy McClain

 

[patsu]

Move compatible games can't be determined if they were bought for the Move support or not

Usually it means they have to do a separate survey to tally the numbers. As you said yourself, the numbers they got from the retailers are not fine-grained enough. It may mean Sony is still lacking flagship titles for Move though. ^_^

I have already complained before Move and Kinect was launched. Also, NPD should have a separate/new report tallying download and retail numbers right ?

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Sports Champions not counted. What about EyePet, The Fight, ProStroke Golf, blah ? There are also quite a few Move PSN titles (5-7 titles). Also, the number doesn't cover Move compatible games like TigerWood ?

If true, I'm afraid we don't have to pity over Move (even ignoring the patched games for Move support). Pachter may have wasted his time scripting/tallying the numbers.

There's absolutely no way to tell if less copies would have sold if Move hadn't launched. And even beyond that, there is absolutely no way to tell how many of the titles sold to people who own Move and people who don't own Move.

Heck we already know that Dance Central (11) and Kinect Sports (12) at least sold more than those titles you just listed. And we know all of them bought it because of Kinect, where we can't say that about Move with regards to those above titles.

That's your opinion by the way. I tried both and they have their charm.

Not my opinion. I haven't played Sports Champions. I'm just relaying what the people I know who have played both Sports Champion and Kinect Sports. So it's their opinion. But it says something that the people I know with Move (granted people generally with families) are now trying to buy Kinect bundles as they've had more fun with Kinect at parties, gatherings, family dinners, etc. than they have with their Moves.

Regards,
SB

 

[patsu]

There's absolutely no way to tell if less copies would have sold if Move hadn't launched. And even beyond that, there is absolutely no way to tell how many of the titles sold to people who own Move and people who don't own Move.

Companies usually run a survey. Sony may have a way to gather from PS3 directly though. I'd be interested to see what Sony has to say in January.

Heck we already know that Dance Central (11) and Kinect Sports (12) at least sold more than those titles you just listed. And we know all of them bought it because of Kinect, where we can't say that about Move with regards to those above titles.

Kinect games should do better because the entire experience is very well done and marketed. But that doesn't mean the Move data we have is complete. They are 2 separate items/contexts.

Similarly, (heck !) the Wii dancing game (Just Dance 2, ranked third) does better than Kinect Dance Central but Kinect has a different context for interpreting its data. Just Dance 2 may have sold better than the 2 titles above combined too.

Not my opinion. I haven't played Sports Champions. I'm just relaying what the people I know who have played both Sports Champion and Kinect Sports. So it's their opinion. But it says something that the people I know with Move (granted people generally with families) are now trying to buy Kinect bundles as they've had more fun with Kinect at parties, gatherings, family dinners, etc. than they have with their Moves.

Kinect will have its own draw regardless of whether a person tried Wii or Move because the experience is unique. Kinect Sports is more family friendly, and has the right mood. Sports Champions is more competitive and deep, though the avatars are bland.

 

[eastmen]

I think Teasy's point is Kinect in the next-gen console won't be a step up from Kinect on the current console. That is neXBox won't be differentiated from this gen in the same way Wii was from the previous gen. If MS wanted to play the XB*2 card, they should have launched Kinect as a new console. Now they have to ride out this gen with Kinect, but I think it'll work very well for them. XB360 is presumably now profitable and MS could potentially pull in significant numbers over 3 years without any direct competition for their experience, just as Wii's experience was unchallenged.

Depends. Wii seems to have held well for 4 years. So even if we don't expect a new console for 2 more years , the kinect should still be popular and ms can just extend support to xbox next and instead of focusing on packing in the kinect , they can continue seling the current kinect as a stand alone product and users can simply just move from the 360 to xbox next and take the kinect with them. All the while the kinect would drop in price over th years.

I don't see what sony can do, whats next after the move ? whats next for the wii after motion plus ? They both can move the remotes foward to the next system , but they will have very similar products and sony even more so. IF nintendo makes a system that plays wii games out of the box and uses wii motion plus controllers with hd graphics sony may find themselves in a difficult postion. Graphicly more impressive than wii hd , but graphicaly on par with the xbox next while having what many might view as wiish control system vs kinect.

 

[patsu]

Depends. Wii seems to have held well for 4 years. So even if we don't expect a new console for 2 more years , the kinect should still be popular and ms can just extend support to xbox next and instead of focusing on packing in the kinect , they can continue seling the current kinect as a stand alone product and users can simply just move from the 360 to xbox next and take the kinect with them. All the while the kinect would drop in price over th years.

The software. Nextgen, we should be able to have more amazing experience, and accurate tracking. Even if the Kinect concept stays the same (i.e., this gen), there are a lot of possibilities in new software. We are only at the tip of the iceberg.

I don't see what sony can do, whats next after the move ? whats next for the wii after motion plus ? They both can move the remotes foward to the next system , but they will have very similar products and sony even more so. IF nintendo makes a system that plays wii games out of the box and uses wii motion plus controllers with hd graphics sony may find themselves in a difficult postion. Graphicly more impressive than wii hd , but graphicaly on par with the xbox next while having what many might view as wiish control system vs kinect.

Hmm... Can you not see them ? Looking at current hardware alone (Kinect, PSEye and Move), there are many possibilities if you let your imagination run wild. If they introduce newer hardware either via a more powerful client console, or a server driven one, or new peripherals (3DTV, portability, or otherwise), it will be more amazing. Dear lord, have faith in game/software developers.

In fact, I think there is a huge void in casual gaming/apps in the living room even without Kinect and Move.

 

[eastmen]

I'm not talking software , I'm talking about the actual hardware.

 

[patsu]

Why do you need new hardware just for innovation sake ? They should reap the benefits of current hardware/accessories first.

For new hardware, I think it will be driven by needs and short falls (that cannot be addressed by software alone). The current tracking systems are still not ideal (yet), we can go deeper and broader (more sensor types). The media environment and content types are still messy and expensive. We may want 3D display and control. There will be new network, communication, privacy and security needs. There may be more portability needs. etc.

They all can matter to entertainment.

Some of the hardware may be virtualized in the future.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Similarly, (heck !) the Wii dancing game (Just Dance 2, ranked third) does better than Kinect Dance Central but Kinect has a different context for interpreting its data. Just Dance 2 may have sold better than the 2 titles above combined too.

Well sure, Just Dance 2 sold to an install base of around 40 million, or whatever the current numbers are for the US, compared to ~1 million for Kinect.

This is one of those rare situations where I agree with others that your install base is going to affect things slightly.

Regards,
SB