NPD November 2010

[patsu]

How was GT5 mismanaged? It has at least as good a marketing campaign as other games this year from what I can tell, at least on the west coast.

They completely and utterly mishandled the communications. No one, including Sony, knew what's in the game throughout the year. They contradicted each other. Fans were confused and got frustrated. When launch is near, the reviewers were not given enough time to review the game. I think they arranged for an interview with Kazunori after launch (instead of before the launch, like how they did MGS4 release). The reviewers also didn't get to test GT5 online.

Due to the last minute delay, Sony didn't have time to drum up the demand before release. I remember they sponsored a TV automobile show last minute (plus the usual adverts). Unfortunately, demand generation relies a large part on repetition/reinforcement. When there's no time, the effect will be weaker. Some people didn't know GT5 was out already ^_^

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I further qualified what I meant by "in" by stating where I see Nintendo and Sony at 2020.

But your definition was dubious as you were talking about market leadership, not a workable business. Plus it's poor form to use a word with clear connotations and then try and redefine it. Miss your definition and a reader sees neither Sony nor Nintendo in the console business in 2020, rather than not in a leadership-challenging position. You pretty much did this:

The sky will be lime green* by 2020.

*By "lime green" I mean sky blue.

Sony will be financially squeezed, and Nintendo will have no edge in casual gaming and no edge in core gaming and be squeezed further into the "kid" market with an edge in education titles leveraging their iconic franchises.

These are the very same arguments that were used to tell Nintendo to get out of the hardware business and make games for PlayStation...

Unless, they get a partner/buyer with cash.

Why does Nintendo need cash?!?!

The upward trend of xb360 has been since they finally released a machine with proper engineering (360s).

Kinect is just adding fuel to the fire allowing MS to spread into the casual market where Nintendo has filled the void left by ps2.

Oh, sorry, I forgot you're a US citizen who ignores the whole rest of the world and bases their predicitions based solely on NPD results. The upward trend of the last year or so, worldwide, has been PS3 catching up with 360. That is, reduced growth for 360, not 360 pulling away and catching Wii. Without Kinect, XB360 wouldn't have a chance of suddenly pulling ahead, so it's not just adding fuel to the fire - it's fanning the flames. this whole line of reasoning of yours is inspired by this NPD report, which is only showing what it's showing because of Kinect.

It isn't quite there yet with a MSRP of $300, but when it dips into the $250 and $200 market, it will rapidly fill that niche as well as catering to the core market. Something I didn't think feasible with one console and (more importantly) one brand.

Like PS2 never managed it before. Oh, sorry, I forgot you're a US citizen and never encountered EyeToy! PS2 would have done wonders like Wii and Kinect, except Sony management is useless. But one console for all people isn't something new to MS.

 

[obonicus]

The upward trend of xb360 has been since they finally released a machine with proper engineering (360s).

Kinect is just adding fuel to the fire allowing MS to spread into the casual market where Nintendo has filled the void left by ps2.

Dude, it's been a few months, this is the first holiday since the 360s was released. You're looking at an upward slope and going 'yep, based on this I believe growth will continue forever'. Do you do the same with downward slopes and tell people to take their cyanide pills? That's not to say the 360 isn't doing great, but to suppose that this is the new shape of things is way, way premature. Not only that: Kinect is doing fine, but it's a far cry from being the final Motion solution and we certainly haven't seen any real inroads into the Wii's audience -- speculating utter defeat for Nintendo in that field isn't just premature, it's so baseless it's delusional.

Also, to bring back a previous point, isn't the difference like 10 million in NA between Wii and 360? To outsell it by 2015, 360'd have to exceed Wii by 2 million a year just in the US. Are we seeing that?

These are obviously very bold and forward thinking statements, but as you know, that's nothing new for me.

I'd say they're bold, but mostly unfounded statements.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

These are obviously very bold and forward thinking statements, but as you know, that's nothing new for me.

There's no problem with that. The problem most people have with your posts about Wii versus PS3 versus X360 w/Kinect is that you are stating your opinions as fact, when they aren't even remotely factual.

Your assumptions are based on a lot of IFs.

IF Kinect continues to inspire far greater demand than supply.
IF Kinect becomes a fad similar to what Wii was for quite a few years.
IF Nintendo suddenly do even worse going forward than they did with GC.
IF Nintendo 3DS flops.
IF PS3 loses world wide momentum.
IF neither Nintendo nor Sony can come up with anything competitive going forward.

I could go on, but I think you get the idea. You're basing your entire hypothesis on a bunch of IFs. Which hardly makes your opinion facts.

It's certainly possible that your predictions may turn out right. I find it extremely doubtful, but it's possible. Just like everyone else here has their opinions as to how things will turn out.

Just like pretty much noone predicted Wii would run away with the hardware sales crown by such a large margin for all those years.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Just like pretty much noone predicted Wii would run away with the hardware sales crown by such a large margin for all those years.

Credit where credit is due, 7 people did. Though whether an actual prediction or a guess or a vote for one's favourite console brand is hard to qualify. As for track records, perhaps it's worth bringing up the 2007 poll, where TheChefO along with many others reckoned by 2010 the market would be split 20/40/40 Sony/MS/Ninty. Hopefully this serves as a reminder how hard it is to make any accurate predictions in this business. Of course, these predictions are just for fun, but TheChefO, I'm afraid I won't be asking you to handle my investments!

 

[NavNucST3]

Credit where credit is due, 7 people did. Though whether an actual prediction or a guess or a vote for one's favourite console brand is hard to qualify. As for track records, perhaps it's worth bringing up the 2007 poll, where TheChefO along with many others reckoned by 2010 the market would be split 20/40/40 Sony/MS/Ninty. Hopefully this serves as a reminder how hard it is to make any accurate predictions in this business. Of course, these predictions are just for fun, but TheChefO, I'm afraid I won't be asking you to handle my investments!

3.9% of the total (six people) is "many others" or is that a bad link?

EDIT: I also wish people when they enter a SALES thread would be able to handle that it is in fact POSSIBLE to have GLOOM without DOOM...

 

[NavNucST3]

[snip]
Oh, sorry, I forgot you're a US citizen who ignores the whole rest of the world and bases their predicitions based solely on NPD results. The upward trend of the last year or so, worldwide, has been PS3 catching up with 360. That is, reduced growth for 360, not 360 pulling away and catching Wii. Without Kinect, XB360 wouldn't have a chance of suddenly pulling ahead, so it's not just adding fuel to the fire - it's fanning the flames. this whole line of reasoning of yours is inspired by this NPD report, which is only showing what it's showing because of Kinect.

Like PS2 never managed it before. Oh, sorry, I forgot you're a US citizen and never encountered EyeToy! PS2 would have done wonders like Wii and Kinect, except Sony management is useless. But one console for all people isn't something new to MS.

You adding the razz notwithstanding we get numbers for two places US + JAPAN now this being an NPD thread and drawing conclusions based on NPD numbers which happens to cover one of gamings largest and most significant regions could surely keep the "you guys think you are the world" sentiment to a simmer. I am certain, as you seem to be, that it isn't our fault in the US that the eyetoy was never advertised nor marketed properly.

What I also gather from your statement is that you are under the belief that the 360 would have also seen a 25% decline in November sales had it not been for Kinect but then what accounts for the 360's YoY growth pre-360S: "Prior to the launch of the new Xbox 360 S in June of this year, sales of Microsoft's console were already up 6.7 percent in 2010, year-to-date. For a console finishing its fifth year, that's a significant accomplishment.".

For the EU/PAL until games reach a milestone we don't typically know what they have done unless we do the % calculations from the tiny bit of information we get from the region, otherwise we just have placements which leads to people like zed stating that, for the UK, GT5 held better 1st week to 2nd week placement than Halo: Reach (which is TRUE) but ignores the actual sales data we did have whereby Reach still sold in its first week more than GT5 in the two weeks combined, again speaking only for the UK.

As a pro-sales and numbers guy, I would be all for a sub-forum or even an updated sticky of Worldwides sales and then the regional sub-fora US, JAPAN, EU (or PAL) wherein we would have the dedicated places to discuss each of the platform holders efforts in those specific regions and then when the topic naturally progresses to worldwide we would also have that to discuss the broader health of the plat holders.

As an actual investor in all of these companies it would be nice to be able to have rational discussion on the health of the platform holders in relation to gaming without the US vs the world or console preference coming into play we can save that for those arguments for the platform exclusives versus arguments.

 

[Squilliam]

The natural progression of the console market given that it is in effect like the HD format wars as they fight to be the medium you use to play your games on is towards a monopoly. Now during this generation whilst most content was ported between systems which alleviated much of this natural monopolising at the same time the online systems grew to be considerably important. Since like games for different systems, the online systems aren't interoperable between each other we may see one system rise to prominence and remain that way because of the network effect.

So if you have video game players considering which system to buy in the early days of the next generation, a clear and obvious early winner could end up with one system taking home the vast majority of those whom consider online to be important. This momentum would also naturally translate to better support by publishers and influence their single player only brethren. We have seen how online support kept the Xbox 1 alive towards the end and how the Xbox 360 seems to outsell the PS3 inspite the relative similarity in average sale price going by previous Gamasutra articles. We have also seen the considerable growth of online dominated games like Call of Duty and the relatively sustained sales of Halo and Gears of War on the Xbox 360 as well.

 

[TheChefO]

But your definition was dubious as you were talking about market leadership, not a workable business. Plus it's poor form to use a word with clear connotations and then try and redefine it. Miss your definition and a reader sees neither Sony nor Nintendo in the console business in 2020, rather than not in a leadership-challenging position. You pretty much did this:

I said they won't be in the console business by themselves by 2020. I firmly believe that. I think one or both will team with a big hitter by then to provide financing and/or content and/or extended ability beyond gaming in a meaningful way other than an off movie or song once in a while.

If they choose to go it alone, they will be relegated to ... let's see, your a Euro guy so I'm sure you remember the Philips CD-i

A few others: NeoGeo CD, Nokia nGage, Dreamcast, etc.

Something along those lines.

Sure, they'll have a game or two, but surely not competing in the proper sense.

These are the very same arguments that were used to tell Nintendo to get out of the hardware business and make games for PlayStation...

Yes, but as we've seen, the interface game is pretty much wrapped up. The revolution which was started by Nintendo has pretty much been finished by MS. Quibble on the details if you like, but I don't see another revolution in computer human interaction as we saw in Wii to make up for the lack of any discernible difference between Wii hardware and GC.

Interface
If we agree that Nintendo is not likely to revolutionize interface technology again well above and beyond what MS has introduced with Kinect, that leaves them competing on services, games, and hardware.

Hardware
How many want to bet that Nintendo will all of a sudden drop the profit first mantra and develop a PS4 beating machine? Yeah, me neither.

Software
Given what we know about Nintendo on the above answers (nevermind how 3rd party software sells on Wii), how many will take the bet that Nintendo will have equal 3rd party support as MS/Sony going forward in nextgen machines? Yeah, me neither.

Services
...yep.

Why does Nintendo need cash?!?!

Software
As you are well aware, games development costs have skyrocketed this gen. To the detriment of some top notch studios.

Hardware
The industry is pushing forward with ever more advanced hardware and software to take advantage of said hardware.

Servies
The services tag was left blank up there for a reason. It costs money to bring services to the consumer which compete in todays gaming landscape.

Oh, sorry, I forgot you're a US citizen who ignores the whole rest of the world and bases their predicitions based solely on NPD results. The upward trend of the last year or so, worldwide, has been PS3 catching up with 360.

If I'm not mistaken, there was significant growth soon after Sony dropped the price of the ps3 and introduced the slim model. Been steady growth since. As soon as MS introduced the slim xb360, that rapid marketshare growth has since been reversed. Kinect only pushed it further.

The latest numbers show half the 1.3m or so were xb360 kinect boxes, so that leaves half without. 650k or so. Still significantly more than PS3.

Granted, NPD numbers to make that last case but doesn't change the fact the numbers are only getting larger with Kinect.

Like PS2 never managed it before. Oh, sorry, I forgot you're a US citizen and never encountered EyeToy! PS2 would have done wonders like Wii and Kinect, except Sony management is useless. But one console for all people isn't something new to MS.

Here's the thing about Eyetoy: it wasn't supported (MONEY).

Yeah, we can go on about how it sucked in low light situations or that it didn't have enough games, or that it didn't track your body in 3d, or that it didn't have sufficient tech to seperate the body from the environment, but really, it boils down to MONEY.

Sony didn't advertise it and market it correctly from the get-go. Otherwise they may be the ones extending said technology and introducing their own 3d camera and enjoying a healthy November 2010 NPD and green future prospects.

As is, they will need a big partner to come on board, help them cope with RD dev costs for future gen systems as well as dev tools, and network services.


None of which addresses how they will compete with Kinect.


Yeah, it's only one month of NPD, but many of us saw this interface tech (natal) as a game changer when it was announced. I know I did.

Sure nobody knows the future with absolute certainty, but one can draw some conclusions with what is factually presented in the here and now to predict how these facts will likely shape the future.

Edit- As for the one console for all, I have no illusions about what ps2 did or did not do or to whom it catered to. The big difference here is that Kinect is going from a hardcore games console which few casuals owned, to a console capturing people that were afraid to touch a gamepad. All under the same console, and under the same brand. THAT is impressive (from a marketing perspective). Ps2 conversely never was a targeted console by design. It was affordable and offered games of all types to capture every demographic possible.

 

[TheChefO]

Of course, these predictions are just for fun, but TheChefO, I'm afraid I won't be asking you to handle my investments!

You'll recall, I was one of the few (only?) ones here saying Sony was in for a world of hurt at the $600 launch price. Also one of the few (only?) saying BR was a mistake because it would force a HDD and expensive BOM.

In fact I proposed a way for Sony to mitigate that loss by having the first set of games developed for ps3 be DVD based which would allow them to drop the BR if sales were not as brisk as they predicted, and introduce a DVD based ps3 which would have alleviated much of the cost upfront.

We can argue the benefits of BR to the whole of Sony, but it certainly has not been a benefit of any significant measure to the Playstation brand WRT games.

I'd say a pretty good track record.

Also, two things that happened after the poll which I did not foresee. RRoD, and aggressive price drops by Sony which were not matched by MS largely due to RRoD costs IMO.


Edit - Sales of Wii consoles and their marketshare were wildly variable as it was reaching out into a world of unknown non-gamers.

That's why I predicted a 3 party parity at the onset of this gen. I figured Nintendo would do well enough in bringing in non-gamers with the new interface and have a good shot at being a family console. I figured Sony would shoot themselves in the foot with ps3 pricing, but their strong brand (now weakened) would keep them in the running. I figured MS was hitting all the right moves with following in the footsteps of success (ps2), but I did not anticipate RRoD being a billion dollar design mistake and Japan still shrugging off xb360 after MS addressed many of the issues sighted last gen (box is too large, controller too big, no Japanese Games, etc).

 

[NavNucST3]

Matt's NPD article is up on gamasutra now.

 

[TheChefO]

So if you have video game players considering which system to buy in the early days of the next generation, a clear and obvious early winner could end up with one system taking home the vast majority of those whom consider online to be important.

Online
Games library
Games experience (graphics, interface)
Features

All important, but you make a good point with online influencing peer purchase.

 

[Mintmaster]

Matt's NPD article is up on gamasutra now.

This was particularly mind blowing, IMO:

•Put another way, out of every $14 spent at retail on video game software in the U.S. during the first 11 months of 2010, about $1 was spent on Black Ops.

 

[NavNucST3]

This was particularly mind blowing, IMO:

I think that Black Ops shows that a numbered sequel is not always relevant and it certainly shows that gamers couldn't care less who the developer is.

 

[Toaddio]

None of which addresses how they will compete with Kinect.

Yeah, it's only one month of NPD, but many of us saw this interface tech (natal) as a game changer when it was announced. I know I did.

And herein lies the problem. You're evangelizing, not using rationality. You whole heartedly believe that Kinect is the "end game" and no other position no matter how intelligent has any chance of changing your perspective.

This makes a rational conversation on this topic impossible to achieve while you're involved.

I'll repeat what was said before: Video camera interfaces are good at some tasks, like a mouse is, like a keyboard is, like a joystick/pad is, like a touchscreen is, like a steering wheel is, like a magic want is. No matter how long your posts are, Kinect is an extension and that's all.

 

[TheChefO]

I'll repeat what was said before: Video camera interfaces are good at some tasks, like a mouse is, like a keyboard is, like a joystick/pad is, like a touchscreen is, like a steering wheel is, like a magic want is. No matter how long your posts are, Kinect is an extension and that's all.

Just to clarify,
I have no illusions as to how limited the control interface is on Kinect in its current implementation.

There are some things that the interface will likely never do well where a gamepad (of some type) can more than adequately fill that role.

What I mean by "end game" is that the ability to track your whole body in 3d is now done. That revolutionary step is in the bag. Just like the wand motion control revolution was in the bag when Nintendo launched wii.

Further minor improvements will come, but none will have the impact to sell systems that Kinect has now in the motion control realm.

That's what I mean by "end game".


Other revolutions will come, but none in the motion interface tech.

3D without glasses, holograms, tactile feedback (without wearing anything), etc. all will be possible future technologies which may or may not be realistic options for Sony or Nintendo in the near term, but motion tech interface revolution is done.

 

[corduroygt]

Just to clarify,
I have no illusions as to how limited the control interface is on Kinect in its current implementation.

There are some things that the interface will likely never do well where a gamepad (of some type) can more than adequately fill that role.

What I mean by "end game" is that the ability to track your whole body in 3d is now done. That revolutionary step is in the bag. Just like the wand motion control revolution was in the bag when Nintendo launched wii.

Further minor improvements will come, but none will have the impact to sell systems that Kinect has now in the motion control realm.

That's what I mean by "end game".


Other revolutions will come, but none in the motion interface tech.

3D without glasses, holograms, tactile feedback (without wearing anything), etc. all will be possible future technologies which may or may not be realistic options for Sony or Nintendo in the near term, but motion tech interface revolution is done.

Similarly, console with a controller tech was done with Atari 2600, NES, etc, but that didn't stop their competitors from selling millions of systems and eventually taking the lead with the Playstation.

Personally, I'd want the Heavy Rain A.R.I. glasses/glove combo as my next console.

Spoiler

Barring the side effects that come with prolonged use, of course

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Similarly, console with a controller tech was done with NES, but that didn't their competitors from selling millions of systems and eventually taking the lead did it?

But not on the strength of their controllers, which is TheChefO's point. People bought Wii because of the controller. People bought (and will buy both obviously) 360+Kinect because of the controller. PS2 never sold because it had dual sticks offering a novel gaming experience. Controller as a differentiator is a 'done deal', with both wands and 3D cameras no longer being new exciting tech next gen. It'll all be old hat, the novelty worn off, with no-one eager to buy a next-gen console because "it has this amazing new camera interface where you don't have a controller but just act in the game." All those shoppers will be buying into this gen.

It's quite shocking, two landmark trump-cards being played in the same generation. Okay, EyeToy was there first, but the enthusiasm behind Kinect shows Sony didn't capitalise on it for both their lousy marketing and the system's limitations.

 

[corduroygt]

But not on the strength of their controllers, which is TheChefO's point. People bought Wii because of the controller. People bought (and will buy both obviously) 360+Kinect because of the controller. PS2 never sold because it had dual sticks offering a novel gaming experience. Controller as a differentiator is a 'done deal', with both wands and 3D cameras no longer being new exciting tech next gen. It'll all be old hat, the novelty worn off, with no-one eager to buy a next-gen console because "it has this amazing new camera interface where you don't have a controller but just act in the game." All those shoppers will be buying into this gen.

Then there will be other differentiating factors for next gen...Maybe a "Netflix" model that lets you play an unlimited amount of older games for a flat monthly fee (that's still rendered on the local hardware, not an Onlive type thing). Maybe proper 3D, maybe a tablet interface done well, maybe a properly working powerglove in conjunction with a camera to provide accurate finger tracking, etc. It's not like every game changer that's ever going to be invented has been invented, or is 20 years away, is it?

Not to mention some incremental improvements can be huge game changers. Everybody thought "phone with a touch screen" was done years ago until the iPhone came along.

It's quite shocking, two landmark trump-cards being played in the same generation. Okay, EyeToy was there first, but the enthusiasm behind Kinect shows Sony didn't capitalise on it for both their lousy marketing and the system's limitations.

There's actually one more trump card coming next year with the 3DS as well.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Then there will be other differentiating factors for next gen...Maybe a "Netflix" model that lets you play an unlimited amount of older games for a flat monthly fee

Things like that can be copied. It's the hardware differences that define whether you can appeal to a unique market segment or not.

Maybe proper 3D.

That's probably a given if 3D TV sales are strong enough. Again, fit HDMI and you can always cover that in software. So one machine may undersample it's output - Joe Public doesn't really notice and isn't going to buy a cosnole just on that.

maybe a tablet interface done well

I've always said that was coming!

maybe a properly working powerglove in conjunction with a camera to provide accurate finger tracking,

Quite probably not needed given the camera tech, and it's not an ideal interface. Lack of convenience won't offset any improvements in interface such a controller may provide.

It's not like every game changer that's ever going to be invented has been invented, or is 20 years away, is it?

Every? Perhaps not. But mainstream, big ticket changes? I can't see much more room to grow. The big issues are ones of interfacing, making the games accessible and complex and involving, as needed. The only obvious way forwards is direct mind control. things like facial reading may count, although some could argue that's possible with this gen even if no-one pulls it off.

There's actually one more trump card coming next year with the 3DS as well.

Heh, look at that. And in that portable space, we've also had touch screens and multitouch this gen. (I suppose 3DS is actually next-gen for mobiles).