NPD November 2009

[Silent_Buddha]

That's not what we're seeing. Multiplats do fine (always considering a 2:1 ratio in install-base) most of the time on PS3. CoD skews towards 360 (it did for WaW too) but not by a huge percentage, and meanwhile AC2 skewed towards PS3. We can't say much more, since the top-10 cuts out well above of where we'd see the Dragon Age PS3 numbers. The big question is exclusives -- Sony has trouble selling theirs.

This will obviously be up for contention depending on what console you support.

But looking at things objectively with regards to the history of console performance over the past 40+ years, that 2:1 ratio is getting more and more meaningless as time goes on. Explained more in my previous response to Weaste.

People who are fans of the PS3 will obviously continue to stick to the 2:1 ratio. Fans of X360 will probably point to the fact that overall software sales are greater than 2:1 ratio in favor of X360.

And fans of Wii (well you won't find many of those on enthusiasts sites ) will probably correctly point out that increased userbase will see less relevance of people buying titles according to size of userbase. Other than the simplest version that the console with the most users "should" sell the most units of software (overall).

Regards,
SB

 

[Tchock]

It's actually a very interesting question - why is MW2 that successful?

Seems like the average buyer cares more for an intense single player experience instead of a long and complex one with many choices; cares more for the overall looks of a game instead of how many checkbox features it has; and good multiplayer is a must have as well. But it's still not enough to explain such a huge start... Particularly because most of the trailers and images of the game weren't standing out as much as with COD4.

What's within a name?

My theory- quite a fragment of people (1-2mil) don't even really know what they're buying when they buy MW2. They just see Modern and Warfare, and sale.

Uncharted doesn't just sell $60s that easily- even my boss has Arkham but not UC2 (will change soon ) from her dad's pre-purchases. There is little assurance of the quality of the game unless you read reviews or the store has a demo (and that might not just be enough), and UC2 HAS to sell through that niche while competing with other franchises that weren't that critically acclaimed yet have better brand momentum such as MW/AC/Mario etc.

Which is sad, but the same goes for the music industry- why the hell do you think Rihanna and Lady Gaga are spamming albums in such short release periods? To prevent to be forgotten. And UC might have been such, even among the PS3 owners (that are more casual in a sense)

Same thing happened to Forza 3 I guess. Eeek.

(I wanted to talk about game cover art and Naughty Dog making some key errors here, but that might be way too off topic)


Oh, and regarding 360 sales in Nov: wat

 

[obonicus]

But looking at things objectively with regards to the history of console performance over the past 40+ years, that 2:1 ratio is getting more and more meaningless as time goes on. Explained more in my previous response to Weaste.

40 years? And saying something is meaningless doesn't make it so -- the numbers don't really back you up. The ratio still stands, it still applies to this NPD. There's nothing objective about pointing out something that isn't true.

People who are fans of the PS3 will obviously continue to stick to the 2:1 ratio. Fans of X360 will probably point to the fact that overall software sales are greater than 2:1 ratio in favor of X360.

And the 360 fans would be right. But that's not the point you made.

It really does make you wonder if people with PS3 are just less likely as a group to buy games and/or people with both PS3 and X360 are more and more likely to buy it on X360 now as with a few exceptions multiplatform games are gaining a reputation of looking and playing better on X360.

You were talking about multiplat games. Not overall. And on multiplat, your argument is not accurate at all.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

They certainly don't explain the issue at hand here, which is the PS3 exclusives underperforming, particularly when lined up with 360 exclusives.

Agreed, on PS3 exclusives, we'll have to agree to disagree with regards to the rest, as the argument has gone back and forth on that for the past couple years...

Although I wonder what people will say now that PS3 appears to be in the process of narrowing the install base gap in the US. If PS3 reaches 3/4 the install of X360 and continues to sell at a 1:2 ratio on multiplat or gets worse?

Granted, if the majority of the titles at that time continue to follow the pattern I'll be more than happy to revise my view on attach rates as it relates to install base.

But back to PS3 exclusives continuing to underperform, I have no idea. I really expected UC2 to do far better than it has.

- It's a big title and a sequel to a well received, if undersold, game.
- It's had the biggest marketing blitz of any game released this year.
- It's arguably the best if not at least one of the best graphically looking games this year.
- It's been hyped to all hell and back by PS3 users across the net, which "should" lead to word of mouth as those people tell friends and family, and those people tell friends and family.
- Despite all the hype, it STILL was a great game and critically acclaimed. Which again "should" lead to more word of mouth as people played it, invited friends over to play it, friends bought it, invited friends to play it, etc...

Add to that, there's absolutely no piracy on PS3. So you can't even try to account for it that way. I'm absolutely at a loss as to how to explain the continual lack of a blockbuster exclusive on PS3, despite the fact that Sony pours way more money into exclusives than MS does.

Regards,
SB

 

[obonicus]

Although I wonder what people will say now that PS3 appears to be in the process of narrowing the install base gap in the US. If PS3 reaches 3/4 the install of X360 and continues to sell at a 1:2 ratio on multiplat or gets worse?

That'll be bad. We should wait to cross that bridge when we come to it, though. I think we'll start to see a greater differentiation as that carries on -- I can't explain it at all, but it sorta seems like PS3 owners like Japanese titles more while the 360 audience seems to skew towards shooters? If this is true, it's tough luck on Sony's part, since so much of the output this gen has been shooters and Japan has been so muted.

Add to that, there's absolutely no piracy on PS3. So you can't even try to account for it that way. I'm absolutely at a loss as to how to explain the continual lack of a blockbuster exclusive on PS3, despite the fact that Sony pours way more money into exclusives than MS does.

This year this was true. I think that Halo 3 cost more, though, if only because of the ridiculous media frenzy back then. GeoW2... well, Epic would have us believe that they're cheap games to make. I don't know how much MS pays for the development, since so much is just work on UE. MS certainly gets more for their buck out of their exclusives, though, no question.

 

[makattack]

But back to PS3 exclusives continuing to underperform, I have no idea. I really expected UC2 to do far better than it has.

It's a conundrum for me. I just recently picked up a PS3 Slim, as I had promised myself I would once Sony shrank & lowered its price.

In doing so, I picked up KZ2, and UC2 -- what seemed like the most hyped & popular games on the PS3 at the time. When I told fellow friends with PS3s of my purchase and suggested we play online, I was more than surprised to find out that none of them had those games. Most used their PS3s exclusively for HD BDR playback and an occasional game of Madden, FIFA, or GTA.

I can only conclude that among my PS3 owning friends, they are all extreme casual gamers, and primarily AV buffs -- even more so than my Wii friends who seem play more video games (Rock Band it seems) than watch TV / Movies. Oddly enough, on the XBox360, I have only one "first life" friend who actually owns one as well. We go online very occasionally, as neither of our work schedules match, so most of my online XBL friends, I've never met in person. I actually have 5 PS3 owning friends to my one 360 friend. Unfortunately, none of them are really that into playing games on them, especially online.

Perhaps it's a demographic issue. My PS3 friends all purchased before the price drop. They're all either doctors, scientists, engineers, attorneys, or finance professionals. My one first-life XBox friend works a manual labor job at the family business, never completed college, and is definitely a hardcore gamer. I'm the odd one out straddling the two Worlds.

In no way is my small world of friends representative of the rest of the market, but I wonder if it factors in a bit.

 

[djskribbles]

My situation is completely different. All my of friends / family members that own a PS3 actually don't even use it for BR at all (except me), but my friends seem to be younger than your group of friends (mainly 23-27). I live in Canada though, where the demographics seem to differ than the US... the PS3 seems to be more popular here and the install base actually seems to favor the PS3.

 

[Oninotsume]

I was under the impression that NPD data does not include bundles.
While it doesn't explain away the whole story, it could explain lower
than expected numbers for Uncharted 2, etc?

Oninotsume

 

[Scott_Arm]

I was under the impression that NPD data does not include bundles.
While it doesn't explain away the whole story, it could explain lower
than expected numbers for Uncharted 2, etc?

Oninotsume

Very sure there was no Uncharted 2 bundle.

But what do you think the real Modern Warfare 2 sales are on 360? I'm pretty sure there was a special 360 MW2 console.

 

[makattack]

My situation is completely different. All my of friends / family members that own a PS3 actually don't even use it for BR at all (except me), but my friends seem to be younger than your group of friends (mainly 23-27). I live in Canada though, where the demographics seem to differ than the US... the PS3 seems to be more popular here and the install base actually seems to favor the PS3.

My friends are slightly older... I'd say between 25-37 -- many of the gamers -- or rather, console owners, are fairly new engineers, doctors, post-docs, attorneys, etc. They're still paying off large loans or have fairly entry level jobs (and pay) in their respective fields. I don't think they necessarily even represent the entire USA. Perhaps, just Northeastern US. Or more specifically, the Boston area. Everyone I know older than that range, either don't game, or their gaming consists of the occasional tetris / soduku / solitaire / crossword puzzle / facebook game on the phone or computer.

 

[Mboojigga]

I was under the impression that NPD data does not include bundles.
While it doesn't explain away the whole story, it could explain lower
than expected numbers for Uncharted 2, etc?

Oninotsume

Microsoft's Greenberg Promises 'Halo: Reach Will Be The Biggest Game Of 2010'

Aaron Greenberg, Microsoft's product management director, is practically ebullient regarding the company's performance in his interview with Gamasutra immediately following November 2009's NPD U.S. retail sales results.


In those results, the Xbox 360 lead the PS3 in hardware sales, though Microsoft's console did drop slightly year on year. Of course, the month's big story was the huge debut of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, which boasted the biggest opening month of sales ever on Xbox 360 at 4.2 million copies -- besting the PlayStation 3 version by more than two to one in units. (Or, as Greenberg put it, "Holy crap!")

It's worth noting that this does not include copies bundled with Microsoft's limited edition console, a product Sony did not replicate. In comparison, the massively hyped Halo 3 sold 3.3 million copies on its September 2007 debut.


http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=26476

 

[Acert93]

The MW2 sales are impressive although those relating it back to Halo 3 I think it isn't super clear in this regards: Halo 3 came out toward the end of a September (and received nice October, Nov, and Dec sales). MW2 is an early November release that had the holiday sales spike, so in this regards 3.3 to 4.2 isn't so bad. Add in the 2 years worth of platform growth I don't think it is really a case of Halo being punked by CoD. What is clear, though, is that CoD is officially one of the industries biggest IPs.

You wonder every generation what games will make a leap into the upper eschelon--not to mention which ones fail to make that conversion into sales... and those that fall from grace--but this generation CoD has officially put a big stamp on this generation.

 

[eastmen]

I'm really glad for Sony .

That said its not suprising that MS did so well even if many of us felt hte deals weren't that great. The bundle of Pure , lego batman and then cod4 or other games randomly bundled in was a great deal. The $200 arcade with $100 gift card was also great. but the main thing is the amount of games the 360 has on the shelves and the amount of great used games you can find for the system. The Total price for entertainment is still much lower than the sony platform.


I'm happy for dragon age. Seems to have done good numbers.

 

[Rangers]

It's actually a very interesting question - why is MW2 that successful?

Seems like the average buyer cares more for an intense single player experience instead of a long and complex one with many choices; cares more for the overall looks of a game instead of how many checkbox features it has; and good multiplayer is a must have as well. But it's still not enough to explain such a huge start... Particularly because most of the trailers and images of the game weren't standing out as much as with COD4.

My answer is basically "I dont know", but I do know the young guys I know, the gamers anyway, tend to absolutely love COD4. It's almost like UFC in that respect, it has become so underground huge in the young male demo. We discussed this in the other thread, but think COD4 initially caught on because it had very excellent graphics for it's day. I mean I remember posting the Game Informer shots here on B3D back then.

But why they love it so much, I dont know. But I'd say it's something like the new "Madden" as well, but bigger.

As for UC2, remember the PS3 has ~half the userbase in the USA as 360. So it's first month ~500k, would have been ~1m if PS3 had the userbase of 360, and looked a lot more impressive, if you scale it. And of course the same for whatever it sells now.

I'd say the game is a nice hit, worldwide. But as for why it wont be as big as COD, well, I think it's basically that it's a lighthearted colorful, Indiana Jones esque game, and the biggest hits look to be serious shooters.

Speaking to the rest of NPD, it will be a lot of fun to see if Halo Reach's initial month can top MW2's on 360. If it can I think MS would be pretty happy.

 

[Rangers]

That's not what we're seeing. Multiplats do fine (always considering a 2:1 ratio in install-base) most of the time on PS3. CoD skews towards 360 (it did for WaW too) but not by a huge percentage, and meanwhile AC2 skewed towards PS3. We can't say much more, since the top-10 cuts out well above of where we'd see the Dragon Age PS3 numbers. The big question is exclusives -- Sony has trouble selling theirs.

I looked at the numbers and PS3 is currently up to 56% of the 360 userbase. AC2 sold right at that ratio (56% as much on PS3). MW2 eyeballing was obviously weighted 360 (44% sales on PS3).

Anyway I bring this up practically every NPD, but 360 and PS3 sold within what, 20% of each other? Yet the mood of this thread and attitudes to who is doing well would be a complete 180 if the Ps3 had sold 800k and the 360 700k. Then everybody would be talking about wow, PS3 made all the right moves and 360 is on the ropes. Yet would 100k swing in sales have really made any meaningful difference in the context of the whole generation? No. I mean, Ps3 and 360 sold essentially the same no matter which sold 700k and 800k, yet the mood of who "won" changes drastically.

 

[eastmen]

My answer is basically "I dont know", but I do know the young guys I know, the gamers anyway, tend to absolutely love COD4. It's almost like UFC in that respect, it has become so underground huge in the young male demo. We discussed this in the other thread, but think COD4 initially caught on because it had very excellent graphics for it's day. I mean I remember posting the Game Informer shots here on B3D back then.

But why they love it so much, I dont know. But I'd say it's something like the new "Madden" as well, but bigger.

As for UC2, remember the PS3 has ~half the userbase in the USA as 360. So it's first month ~500k, would have been ~1m if PS3 had the userbase of 360, and looked a lot more impressive, if you scale it. And of course the same for whatever it sells now.

I'd say the game is a nice hit, worldwide. But as for why it wont be as big as COD, well, I think it's basically that it's a lighthearted colorful, Indiana Jones esque game, and the biggest hits look to be serious shooters.

Speaking to the rest of NPD, it will be a lot of fun to see if Halo Reach's initial month can top MW2's on 360. If it can I think MS would be pretty happy.

Sorry but why are we doubling uncharted sales when comparing to xbox 360 exclusives ?

Uncharted sold badly for an exclusive with the amount of hype and ads it had. Its just not a popular game for whatever reason. Mabye a slew of bad adventure games like it (the last few tomb raiders , mirrors edge , ac 1 , uncharted 1) has just gotten people off the fad. Who knows

But doubling the sales for no reason isn't the answer. There are plenty of million sellers on the ps3 and plenty of games like cod mw 2 that are able to sell over 1m in its first month.

It has nothing to do with sonys install base which is now over 10m units in the states. The 360 was able to sell halo 3 , dead rising , cod 2 , lost planet and a ton of other exclusives with an install base that size or smaller and have them sell much better than uncharted 2 did.

 

[liolio]

Really happy that DA-O made it to the top ten (on the other size it the prize may not go down as fast as I would have wanted).
I'm surprized that the 360 beat the ps3 after Ms black-out about black friday sales.

 

[patsu]

Anyway I bring this up practically every NPD, but 360 and PS3 sold within what, 20% of each other? Yet the mood of this thread and attitudes to who is doing well would be a complete 180 if the Ps3 had sold 800k and the 360 700k. Then everybody would be talking about wow, PS3 made all the right moves and 360 is on the ropes. Yet would 100k swing in sales have really made any meaningful difference in the context of the whole generation? No. I mean, Ps3 and 360 sold essentially the same no matter which sold 700k and 800k, yet the mood of who "won" changes drastically.

I think it's more specific individuals rather than "everybody"
You can find specific 360 posters who have said behavior too.

Uncharted sold badly for an exclusive with the amount of hype and ads it had. Its just not a popular game for whatever reason. Mabye a slew of bad adventure games like it (the last few tomb raiders , mirrors edge , ac 1 , uncharted 1) has just gotten people off the fad. Who knows

Need to look at the profile of PS3 owners. Since MGS4 sold exceptionally well, it may mean Uncharted theme/style doesn't speak to the existing PS3 folks well enough. Sony will have to figure it out. The CoD franchise took 4 iterations to click with the target audience.

BTW, Uncharted 1 is not a bad adventure game IMHO.



I actually think the hardware did very well, but at a heavy price. I am more interested in the actual numbers after all the promos (i.e., after the holiday seasons). Economy is supposed to be better, let's hope more consumers throw their $$$ this way.

 

[assen]

Any numbers outside the Top 10?

 

[Rangers]

I think it's more specific individuals rather than "everybody"
You can find specific 360 posters who have said behavior too.

Right, it wasnt a bash at PS3. Just that the order of the systems seems to take on an undue amount of importance.

Some months the systems may be 5,000 apart, but which one finishes ahead of the other sets the tone of NPD threads around the internet when really, it doesn't matter.