NPD May 2007

[scooby_dooby]

Fixed.

Yes, yes I do indeed. No matter how much PR tries to convince everyone that Wii isn't a competitor, it really is. Especially with a potential 360 pricedrop. If a Wii and the Core get priced the same for example I don't see how anyone can claim they're not competing for the same gaming dollars.

It is, and it isn't. I mean, MS will probably be just fine sitting #2 if Sony is sitting #3. I think that would still be considered a success for them.

And that's not even taking into account that both PS3 and 360 should have *much* longer legs than the Wii.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

I think the question is how long they can ride the wave of buzz that's out there for Wii, versus the (growing?) chorus of existing users recalling anecdotes of initial shared, unbridled joy only to find post-Wii-Sports that their system has gone relatively untouched. I don't know how common that experience is generally, but it has been the case with everyone I know who owns a Wii, and cautions about "short term appeal" seem to be increasingly raised on message boards. Of course, the ultimate response is to have sales figures thrown back in your face when you raise a point like that, but it doesn't really address the issue.

Well I also think its a case of (some) people not looking further than their nose is long. There are ''plenty'' of good, and longer Wii games available but on alot of forums it seems people just deny their existance and keep on screaming Wii only has sports and minigames.

A funny thing is that while you hear this alot about Wii, you dont hear anybody about the ps3 (wich atleast on gaming forums seem to be more populair) while that didnt get a new game for months and even the launchgames were mostly year old ports.

But maybe its DS all over again for the Wii, lack of games for some time, after that more decent games but still normal games with wii controlls tacked on and after that really wii specific games. But yeah nintendo and 3rd party's should get some long real games out, and I hope they sell good, and then start making good stuff for wii. Maybe manhunt2 will be a indication of what we can expect. If that sells good, maybe other devs will finally see the light.

And that's not even taking into account that both PS3 and 360 should have *much* longer legs than the Wii.

That is, if you think power is what sells a console.

 

[Todd33]

It's a new low for the 360, 160k was their previous low. They are hitting a new low despite all the great games that are out for it. So yes, they badly need a price cut. I guess they could look at the bright side, the PS3 also hit a new low.

The PS3 sales went up, how is that a new low?

 

[RobertR1]

PS3 holding off the looming GBA threat! good work!

 

[Titanio]

Well I also think its a case of (some) people not looking further than their nose is long. There are ''plenty'' of good, and longer Wii games available but on alot of forums it seems people just deny their existance and keep on screaming Wii only has sports and minigames.

I think there've been a couple of good releases since then, but nothing that presents the whole concept of Wii as well as Sports did, and nothing nearly as buzz-worthy as it. Nothing that reaches out as well as it did. Sports got plenty of people in my family and among my friends playing my Wii, albeit for a short time, but none of them are interested in these other games, let alone interested enough to actually make any purchases themselves. And they are going to be a harder sell also (if we're talking about people not looking beyond their nose..a lot of this 'new audience' won't!).

A funny thing is that while you hear this alot about Wii, you dont hear anybody about the ps3 (wich atleast on gaming forums seem to be more populair) while that didnt get a new game for months and even the launchgames were mostly year old ports.

Neither of those things are true, and PS3 has a lot of other functionality to keep it 'active'. I use my Ps3 all the time as a movie player, so even if there were no games whatsoever (which there are), it would still be seeing more 'on-time' than my Wii has lately.

I would say it's also a matter of differing contexts. I play my PS3 mostly alone, whereas my Wii (still) has a place in the living room. I would also say that there's a stronger onus on Wii games to actually do something very broadly appealing with the controller ala Sports, because a 'normal' Wii game that isn't similarly revelatory probably just isn't that attractive for other reasons in the same way that a normal PS3 or 360 game might be to its audiences. There'd be no reason for me to spend time with those games any more than I would PS2 or Xbox games at this stage. That's my own opinion anyway, I'm not so much interested in Wii for games that simply go through the motions (no pun intended), but am really only interested in those games that either make a surprising use of the controller, or one that will inspire the enthusiasm of my family and friends in the same way Sports did. And those games are few and far between so far...I've certainly not found the latter again, thusfar.

Like I say, though, I'm only relating anecdotal experiences, and others may have contradictory ones.

edit - thinking about it more, this kind of perspective may be more limited to those Wii owners who are either traditional gamers and/or who own other next-gen systems aswell. Certainly when I talk about all the people I know with a Wii bearing a similar opinion, they're all also in that category.

 

[thatdude90210]

The PS3 sales went up, how is that a new low?

It was 82k last month, it's 81k this month. They were both 4 week NPD months, So, how is that up?

 

[RancidLunchmeat]

The comments in this thread are just... interesting.

People keep talking about how the Wii won't have the long legs of the 360 and PS3. Well, it doesn't need to. Nintendo will sell a ton, each at a profit and by the time the other 2 are barely breaking even on hardware, Nintendo will have money in the bank already.

Robert.. This isn't a competition for profitability. MS and Sony don't care if Nintendo makes a profit while they barely break even. You want to play the profitability game as a corporation comparison, MS wins and its not even close. This is competition for space in the living room, and Wii isn't competing with MS or Sony.

I wouldn't say the market for a $400 console has dried up considering MS is rather steady with their sales. They've been between 150k-225k for months, and this is typically a slow time of year. The PS3's sales however have halved in recent months, so it is safe to say that the market for a $600 console is definitely drying up.

Natoma, I agree.. to a certain point. I still believe that the market is a reflection of price point + software. If you look at the graph supplied by Patrick, the markets for the 360 and Wii are not saturated yet. A saturated market is what you see when you examine the rise/run of the PS3. Horizontal lines demonstrate a saturated market, and IMO, that's due to the horribly expensive price of the PS3 and the lack of software. (I do stand by my original contention from the 360 launch that the 360 is too expensive, however.)

MS will cut the price when they can get some synergy from it, i.e. along with Halo 3. If they drop it now, sure, theyll get some more sales between now and september but how many, 100K? I think they really want to start a frenzy come halo/september and combine those marketing dollars into one "YOU CANT RESIST!" type of push. I dont think $50 is a big enough drop tho, hopefully they dont either.

Agree totally. What makes more sense? Drop the price $50 now, increase losses in profitability but push a meaningless increase in units, or maintain sales rate at approximately break even, and drop the price $100 for the holidays? I don't think you'll see a price drop at the same time as Halo 3.

I expect the 360 to remain at $399 until Black Friday. A bit of a gamble, but I doubt Halo 3 hype will have died down in a month and half, and when does GTAIV release?

Also, as far as synergy goes, the same theory applies to the PS3. So what if they drop the price? How many sales will they gain if they don't have better software to go with it?

in the case of the xb360 bringing it equal or cheaper than a wii, guess what the market will do after the initial month surge?
status quo will be resumed, the $250 wii would still outsell a $200 or $250 xb360.

Simply and completely laughable. An equally priced 360 would result in having no effect on Wii sales, but would push 360 sales to heights that would make the adoption rate of the Wii look flat.

 

[Todd33]

It was 82k last month, it's 81k this month. They were both 4 week NPD months, So, how is that up?

Sorry, I had 74k stuck in my head for some reason (I see it was Tap In's prediction yesterday).

 

[Tap In]

Sorry, I had 74k stuck in my head for some reason (I see it was Tap In's prediction yesterday).

yea, not too far off... I underestimated Wii a bit..... again

predictions:

Wii: 298,000
X360: 158,000
PS3: 74,000

Actual:
[WII] 338,278
[360] 154,932
[PS3] 81,604

 

[thatdude90210]

That is, if you think power is what sells a console.

It's possible that power is what gives consoles legs. But it's also possible that the Wiimote/Nunchuk is the future of console controllers. If that's the case, then both Sony & MS have been outflanked.

Take any of the games in Wiisports. It's possible that none of the games featured in there can be looked upon the same way again with other controllers.

I saw a video of a woman (from the dev company) playing Virtual tennis 3 with the Sixaxis. It was ridiculous... "you move the controller forward to toss the ball up..." I can't imagine what the developers for VT3 thought when they saw Wiitennis. How are they suppose to sell a tennis game that pushes buttons after that.

 

[Todd33]

yea, not too far off... I underestimated Wii a bit..... again

It was very close. Can you pick some stocks for me? :smile:

 

[Tap In]

It was very close. Can you pick some stocks for me? :smile:

yea... all intuition goes out the window for me when REAL money is on the line.... unfortunately.

 

[DeadlyNinja]

Ok, which genius at MS said it was a good idea to increase the price of the Xbox 360? So far, the system's sales have dropped about 20,000 each month for 2 months now. What are they waiting for!? Drop the freaking price already!

 

[scooby_dooby]

Ok, which genius at MS said it was a good idea to increase the price of the Xbox 360? So far, the system's sales have dropped about 20,000 each month for 2 months now. What are they waiting for!? Drop the freaking price already!

No doubt, at this point it's hard to say the Elite was much more than a giant waste of both time and resources.

I think MS would've dropped price already if it weren't for their reliability problems, and the delay getting to 65nm. I think their hands are somewhat tied because of these issues.

Strategically, it would be best to drop the price in Aug, a month before Halo 3 comes out, by $100. MS would ride extremely strong sales all the way into spring. That would also set up the $299 Halo 3 bundle for Xmas which would be a killer.

It also would setup a $199 Core w/ GTA, which would probably move huge units...if MS fixed the peripheral pricing of the HDD and Memory Card. There must be hordes of people who just want to play GTA as cheaply as possible, and $199 sounds pretty damn attractive I would think.

 

[Carl B]

Like pulling a Sega? No point in making consoles if you can't make money off them.

Thank you, yes. I wonder sometimes why people think that market share is the all-important driver of this business. It is important, but not to the point of self-sacrificing price cuts. Just let the thing play out people... the monthly calls to action across forums are a an indicator of too much time on our hands if they're an indicator of anything.

 

[Corwin_B]

It's possible that power is what gives consoles legs.

Which would explain why the longest legs last gen were for the far more powerful PS2, while the less powerful XBox and NGC all but vanished.

 

[scooby_dooby]

It is important, but not to the point of self-sacrificing price cuts.

Yet Sony has recently gone on record contemplating a self-sacrificing price-cut. So it must be that important.

And lets be real here, MS is in no danger of sacrificing anything other than a balance sheet or two, not only that, but they are probably making a tidy profit right now at the $399 prciepoint.

It's certainly in Sony's best interest for MS to delay a pricedrop, I highly doubt it holds true the other way around.

 

[Carl B]

It's possible that power is what gives consoles legs. But it's also possible that the Wiimote/Nunchuk is the future of console controllers. If that's the case, then both Sony & MS have been outflanked.

Take any of the games in Wiisports. It's possible that none of the games featured in there can be looked upon the same way again with other controllers.

I saw a video of a woman (from the dev company) playing Virtual tennis 3 with the Sixaxis. It was ridiculous... "you move the controller forward to toss the ball up..." I can't imagine what the developers for VT3 thought when they saw Wiitennis. How are they suppose to sell a tennis game that pushes buttons after that.

Anecdote: I have been trying to get my brother and his girlfriend for months to play EyeToy, since me and my own friends have such an awesome time with it. He owns the Wii and his girlfriend is fond of the system as well. Now, he'd been bugging for some time to lend him the system for the weekend to play Resistance on, and so I did so a couple of weeks ago, but when I came over I brought EyeToy and made them play before leaving.

They both found it incredible, and incredibly fun. The girlfriend's words exactly were this: "Wow, looks like Sony has something to compete with the Wii."

I then explained that it has been out for some time now actually, and it is simply that awareness for the product is very low. For instance, for being the highest selling console of all time, how many here have played an EyeToy on PS2? Not many - I'd say the Wii experiences far outnumber. If the Wii = WiiSports (which in my opinion it sort of does), believe me, its equal has been with us for some time.

Sony's failure is not one of innovation, but of branding and strategy.

 

[Carl B]

Yet Sony has recently gone on record contemplating a self-sacrificing price-cut. So it must be that important.

Two points:

1) Everyone is of course contemplating these things at all times, regardless of what they state in public. To state publicly that they are thinking about it is only a reflection of a decision to change public perception on that issue, rather than an indicator of some 'new' awareness over at Sony. I mean I think it's safe to say that they obsess over the pricing and its repercussions on a fairly regular basis; it's just Stringer is one of the few people over there ranked highly enough to be able to speak about it without prior clearance when he's interviewed.


2) Well, let me put it like this: if and when they do price cut, it will be because it is no longer self-sacrificing, but has become bearable within the wake of cost-cutting measures. Remember, Stringer himself is the one that is pushing for 5% margins - I'm sure he's eager for a cut, but he won't do anything that doesn't keep the gaming losses down to their expected levels for the year (which are much reduced from last years losses).

My point is - price cuts made before cost controls are in place can be needlessly expensive, so better to wait a couple of months sometimes rather than rush... games take time to make, saying more games are needed isn't a viable short-term strategy... and in a slow season better to just grin and bear it pending a time your initiatives will be met with better reaction.

We've all known a price cut is coming sooner or later, my stance here is that it doesn't have to be *now*, because the boost a drop *now* would make probably doesn't warrant the hit Sony would take to do so. To quote Jack Sparrow: Wait for the opportune moment. Out of an entire year, if you were Sony looking at all the moving parts related to your cost structure and ROI opportunities, you might likewise say to yourself that in spite of sales sucking, there's no reason to act in panic - a better time to act will arrive.

 

[scooby_dooby]

2) Well, let me put it like this: if and when they do price cut, it will be because it is no longer self-sacrificing, but has become bearable within the wake of cost-cutting measures.

I dunno, I find it a hard argument to buy.

This is an industry that routinely sells at a loss for the first year of production, strictly in order to increase marketshare. So it's seems very obvious to me, they are willing to accept a certain level of self sacrifice, otherwise they would sell at a profit, or close to it, from day 1.

It's obviously a balancing act, with a large grey area. Which is why I don't find the argument "Market share is not worth self-sacrifice" very compelling, they self-sacrifice every generation in order to secure marketshare. What's changed?

Edit- To your edit!

My point is - price cuts made before cost controls are in place can be needlessly expensive, so better to wait a couple of months sometimes rather than rush... games take time to make, saying more games are needed isn't a viable short-term strategy... and in a slow season better to just grin and bear it pending a time your initiatives will be met with better reaction.

We've all known a price cut is coming sooner or later, my stance here is that it doesn't have to be *now*, because the boost a drop *now* would make probably doesn't warrant the hit Sony would take to do so. To quote Jack Sparrow: Wait for the opportune moment. Out of an entire year, if you were Sony looking at all the moving parts related to your cost structure and ROI opportunities, you might likewise say to yourself that in spite of sales sucking, there's no reason to act in panic - a better time to act will arrive.

Yes this makes sense, and I'm not trying to argue it's the right time for Sony to cut price. I mean, certainly, it may be much more advantagous to wait for costs to reduce for a few more months before stimulating sales with a pricedrop.

But, from the POV of the 360, it's entirely different. They do have cost controls in place, and they are experiencing a large drop in demand, the best *strategic* time for a pricedrop is definately very near, if not already passed.