NPD July 2018

[Shifty Geezer]

I was going to say the same thing. Console sales typically peak through years three and four before starting to tail off.

If mid-gen owners want to wait until a new mid-gen refresh next-gen, sales will be something like 20% down on those first three years. Overall sales probably won't be up, but costs to the console companies to make these mid-gen consoles will be. Mid-gen is only beneficial if the buyers double-dip.

IMO, either go generation-less and have a constant growing platform, with more conservative hardware and a longer lifespan with consoles being passed down/sold on but remaining active for software sales and subscriptions, or give up on the mid-gen refreshes unless they are super cheap to implement.

 

[dobwal]

Most mid gen purchasers aren’t going to wait. Most are high end buyers who were early adopters of the baseline models.

 

[Xbat]

The mid gen refresh was all about supporting new 4k displays. Without 4k displays I don't think Sony would of released the Pro.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's a seemingly common narrative that goes completely against the reasons given.
https://www.theguardian.com/technol...o-our-approach-isnt-reactive-this-time-around

“Lifecycles take on, at a certain point, a sense of momentum. Thanks to the efforts of great developers around the world and consumers that have placed their trust in us, we’re 40m units into this lifecycle. Our declared goal is to be a further 20m units above that by the end of next year. At that point we’ve got a pretty good sense of where the momentum of the lifecycle is, but I think the Pro can be something new, innovative and possibly take us in a slightly different direction.”

Regarding the PlayStation 4 Pro, he suggested the Xbox wasn’t even being considered its main competition. Rather, it was the PC. “I saw some data that really influenced me,” he said. “It suggested that there’s a dip mid-console lifecycle where the players who want the very best graphical experience will start to migrate to PC, because that’s obviously where it’s to be had. We wanted to keep those people within our eco-system by giving them the very best and very highest [performance quality]. So the net result of those thoughts was PlayStation 4 Pro – and, by and large, a graphical approach to game improvement.”

Whether 4K was coming or not, 4Pro was a consideration.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

That's a seemingly common narrative that goes completely against the reasons given.
https://www.theguardian.com/technol...o-our-approach-isnt-reactive-this-time-around


Whether 4K was coming or not, 4Pro was a consideration.

Additionally, even with checkerboard rendering PS4-P has trouble hitting 4k in most AAA titles, and Sony likely knew that would be the case while developing the console. Hence, it's much more likely due to the reasons Sony stated rather than an attempt to leverage 4k TV sets. If leveraging 4k TV was the primary goal, I can't imagine they wouldn't have included a 4k UHD BRD drive.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I can understand not caring for UHD for the reasons stated - people are more into streaming than physical media these days. An XB1X without optical drive would make just as much sense.
http://www.denofgeek.com/uk/dvd-bluray/dvd/54490/big-fall-in-disc-sales-recorded-in-2017

It would have added cost to the machine with no benefit to a large proportion of users who aren't interested in buying UHD BRDs, so it was better economy to leave it out.

 

[DrJay24]

I would say it was cost, especially a year earlier. I bought my first (and maybe last) UHD disc this weekend. I bought Infinity War as a test movie for when I upgrade.

Also, Sony was timing the Pro for the launch of the PSVR.

 

[rokkerkory]

pretty decent numbers all around for a slower month?

 

[DuckThor Evil]

That's a seemingly common narrative that goes completely against the reasons given.

Uhh? Possibly migrating to PC-gaming would mainly be due to image quality reasons, which is what higher resolution is all about.

This unveiling video from about 3.45m onwards gives 4K as a pretty big reason for releasing the Pro. He basically even mentions the base unit being enough for 1080p.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's a sales pitch angle. It's a reason/way to sell PS4 Pros. However, if 4K didn't happen, PS4 Pro would have anyway. PC's still game mostly at 1080p but with better settings and higher framerates, especially during the years before PS4 (Pro) which Sony were looking at when deciding a mid-gen refresh was worth doing.

 

[Rangers]

Alright I tallied up Xbox first 7 months this gen to see if indeed it's Xbox's best sales year yet. Indeed it is, but not beating 2015 by much.

First 7 months January-July Xbox One sales (thousands)

2014-1230
2015-1467
2016-1278
2017-1120
2018-1529

Looking at those monthly totals to add these up it always strikes me how low the Xbox One monthly sales often really have been (many months in the ~100k range). Combination of things I guess, including probably a contracting console market. The only thing salvaging a decent gen for MS is solid 1m+ holiday months of November and December. However they do it, MS seems to know how to market those months, or something.

Next little few minutes spare time project it might be interesting to compare what impact/bump Pro had on PS4 sales it's first few months vs Xbox One X.

Ruminating on the gen Xbox sales as a whole, I have Xbox at 21,660 lifetime NPD so far. Using 2X multiplier I think they're at about ~43m shipped then. They'll probably pick up another 2.5m NPD sales/5m worldwide shipped in Nov/Dec, and theres is a few intervening months until then, should be around 50 million shipped by early 2019. But, that will be 6 full holiday seasons. The pace being around 8-10 million per year. So what do the final ship totals end up and in what time frame? Hard to say, until also we get a next gen timeline. I suppose in theory it could be as soon as Fall 2019. 60-70 million seems an "at least" to me.

To compare just USA sales where 360 ended over 40 million, Xbox One should be at 25+ million in early 2019.

It should be a decent gen, for example beating most Nintendo home console generations, but well below many Sony home consoles. Compared to the main rival Sony, they will have slipped from virtual tie to beaten 2:1. But better than the 6:1 defeat PSX vs Xbox (150 million-25 million).

 

[DuckThor Evil]

That's a sales pitch angle. It's a reason/way to sell PS4 Pros. However, if 4K didn't happen, PS4 Pro would have anyway. PC's still game mostly at 1080p but with better settings and higher framerates, especially during the years before PS4 (Pro) which Sony were looking at when deciding a mid-gen refresh was worth doing.

To be honest I don't see the line between "narrative that goes completely against the reasons given." and "It's a reason/way to sell PS4 Pros" as clearly as you do it seems.

I think the connection between 4K TV's and PS4 Pro makes far more sense than preventing migration to PC-gaming even if both play a part. PS4 pro despite it's shortcomings in native 4k presentation is a very natural fit to a 4K TV'. Moving your gaming to the PC world from the PS ecosystem mid gen in mass really seems like a stretch at best...

4K TV's have existed much longer than the PS4 and I'm certain Sony has been well aware of the road maps and adoption rates of it, if that hasn't been a major reason behind their decision for the Pro, I'd be quite surprised. And like I mentioned bringing higher resolution support is a very large part in the image quality equation. PC gaming and PS4 pro gaming is very largely about similar settings, but with higher resolution. neither has taken actual quality per pixel that much higher. PC brings 60 and above fps gaming, but PS4 Pro hasn't really solved that problem at all, likewise a PS4 Pro on a 1080p TV is a very poor answer to a possible PC migration issue.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

To be honest I don't see the line between "narrative that goes completely against the reasons given." and "It's a reason/way to sell PS4 Pros" as clearly as you do it seems.

It's the difference between "PS4 Pro's reason d'etre is 4K gaming" and "PS4 Pro is aiming for double-dip gamers, whether that's on 4K or not".
This is the post I was replying to...

The mid gen refresh was all about supporting new 4k displays. Without 4k displays I don't think Sony would of released the Pro.

 

[Xbat]

I still believe that without 4 k displays Pro wouldn't of happened. It made it easy to have more or less the same games on both machines only with the Pro running at higher resolution.

 

[goonergaz]

IMHO consoles always suffered 'long in the tooth' syndrome for the last few years with multi platform (PC) games running poorly due to the power gap.

I would always fine myself upgrading my PC around this time due to that happening.

As I understood it, Pro was released to plug that gap...and for me it's worked. 4k is a bonus side effect, I was happy at 1080p I just wanted HDR'.

 

[Xbat]

I was happy at 1080p I just wanted HDR'.

Base PS4 has HDR

 

[Goodtwin]

Solid numbers for Nintendo Switch. Seeing as how Switch sold 50k per week in Japan for the month of July, that is about half a million units in just those two territories. Project Octopath taking that number one spot in the NPD was a surprise, but there really wasn't any big games released that month. Still good to see Square Enix rewarded for taking a chance on a Switch exclusive.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

https://venturebeat.com/2018/08/22/...aveler-and-grand-theft-auto-v-own-the-charts/

Hardware

“Nintendo Switch was July’s best-selling hardware platform in both dollars and units sold,” said Piscatella. “This is the seventh month that Switch has led in hardware dollar sales since launching in March 2017, and the first since December 2017. Unit sales of Nintendo hardware in July 2018 reached its highest point for a July month since 2009.”

Microsoft and Sony are both doing just fine, though. Xbox One hardware sales are trending up. In terms of dollar sales, the Xbox One platform grew by 50 percent year-over-year in July. Year-to-date, it’s up more than 60 percent.

And the PlayStation 4 is still the best-selling platform of 2018 so far. It could solidify that position with the launch of Spider-Man in September, which I’ve heard is outperforming expectations in terms of preorders.

Hardware spending is at it's highest point since 2011. However that includes sales of the NES Classic and SNES classic. So it may not be as impressive without those.

Software

1. Octopath Traveler*
2. Grand Theft Auto V
3. Mario Kart 8*
4. Crash Bandicoot: N. Sane Trilogy
5. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
6. Far Cry 5
7. Super Mario Odyssey*
8. The Crew 2
9. Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six: Siege
10. Mario Tennis Aces *
11. FIFA 18**
12. Lego Incredibles
13. God of War (2018)
14. Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker*
15. NBA 2K18
16. Call of Duty: WWII
17. Detroit: Become Human
18. MLB 18: The Show
19. Minecraft**
20. Destiny 2**

3rd party Octopath Traveler coming in at #1 for all formats and NSW is pretty impressive. Especially with no digital sales included (I got mine digitally. ).

GTA V at #2. Uh...it's GTA? Wonder why the big upswing in sales for July?

Just to be complete.

The best-selling games of 2018 so far

1. Far Cry 5
2. God of War (2018)
3. Monster Hunter: World
4. Call of Duty: WWII
5. Grand Theft Auto V
6. Dragon Ball Fighterz
7. Mario Kart 8*
8. NBA 2K18
9. MLB 18: The Show
10. Super Mario Odyssey

The best-selling games over the last 12 months

1. Call of Duty: WWII
2. NBA 2K18
3. Destiny 2**
4. Madden NFL 18
5. Super Mario Odyssey
6. Far Cry 5
7. Star Wars: Battlefront II**
8. Assassin’s Creed: Origins
9. Grand Theft Auto V
10. God of War 2018

Regards,
SB

 

[Rangers]

GTA V is stupid. They're under no pressure to release a new game in the series with evergreen sales that'd make Nintendo jealous.

 

[Nesh]

That's a sales pitch angle. It's a reason/way to sell PS4 Pros. However, if 4K didn't happen, PS4 Pro would have anyway. PC's still game mostly at 1080p but with better settings and higher framerates, especially during the years before PS4 (Pro) which Sony were looking at when deciding a mid-gen refresh was worth doing.

Sony was probably considering it but would they have if there were no 4k TVs?
In general does a Pro as it is now offer a substantial difference for someone to buy one without owning a 4K?
I haven't seen worthwhile improvements for someone who owns a 1080p TV.