NPD December 2018

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Shortbread, Jan 22, 2019.

  1. Shortbread

    Shortbread Island Hopper
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    per Magicpork

    Switch: 1
    XBO: 0.52
    PS4: 0.45
    Other: 0.76
    3DS: 0.19

    YoY:
    Switch: +18%
    XBO: -32%
    PS4:-24%
    Other: +52%
    3DS: -56%

    Numbers look terrible (Nintendo not so much, but still) for a December Christmas Holiday period.

    --------------------------------
    Update per Benji

    PS4 barely cleared 800k, mother of God

    Xbox One is around 900kish

    Switch is around 1.7 - 1.8

    Everything looks exactly how I thought other than Switch a bit short
     
    #1 Shortbread, Jan 22, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
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  2. DieH@rd

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    ?
    Those are ratios that compare themselves against Nintendo's "1".

    Sales are
    Switch: ~1.77M +18%
    XB1: ~920K -32%
    PS4: ~797K -24%



    In NPD' last year december, cyber monday was counted as part of that month:
    NSW: 1.5M
    XB1: ~1.35M
    PS4: ~1.05M
     
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  3. Shifty Geezer

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    Down 32 and 24% respectively? That's painful. How does November compare? Did more people just move their buying up earlier?
     
  4. Shortbread

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    I adjusted that before you posted... or a minute after anyhow.
     
  5. Shortbread

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    November Numbers...

    Estimates per LordKano
    Switch: 1356k
    PS4: 1470k
    XBO: 1338k

    Estimates per Welfare.
    PS4: ~1478K
    Switch: ~1356K
    XB1: ~1342K
     
  6. Shifty Geezer

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    I guess we need Nov+Dec combined to be compared.

    2017
    PS4: 2.77M (~1.69M + 1.08M)
    XB1: 2.745M (~1.38M + 1.365M)
    NSW: 2.275M (~775K + 1.5M)

    2018
    PS4: 2.275M (~1.478M +~0.797M)
    XB1: 2.262M (~1.342M + ~0.920M)
    NSW: 3.126M (~1.356M + ~1.77M)

    Two month sales performance YoY
    PS4: -18%
    XB1: -18%
    NSW: +37%

    That should mean the consoles have peaked, have one mediocre holiday period left, and then maybe a couple of years of low sales.

    [​IMG]

    Unless there's a shocking and much needed price cut akin to the PS2 Slim, there's no extra longevity to be found in this gen.
     
  7. Pixel

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    Hardware sales wise, but as we both know software and operating income wise that could be a different story. As we both know for SIE this fiscal year will probably have another billion+ operating income due to good software revenue (partial thanks digital providing bigger cut for Sony vs royalty & of course dlc/microtransactions) and all that service revenue. And we both know operating income will be higher this gen and I personally think this will continue to be the case in the 6th 7th year (higher than PS2) because of digital/dlc/microtransactions and service revenue.

    Data about software unit sales of PS2 vs PS3 vs PS4 would be interesting, iirc though there probably insn't enough data to do much comparisons.
     
    #7 Pixel, Jan 22, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
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  8. Shifty Geezer

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    It's an NPD hardware sales thread. ;)
     
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  9. djskribbles

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    Some things worth noting:
    -Sony literally had zero promotions in December this year. They seem to really be focusing on profit. I thought they would at least temporarily drop the price to 249/349 like they did last year IIRC.
    -XB1X launched last year around this time.
    -Cyber Monday was included in November's report this year according to Era, so that probably affected December numbers across the board.
    -And if you combine sales for Nov.+Dec., Sony seemingly limited 199 bundles on BF/CM like they did the year prior. They could have easily sold way more units had they made more available.

    So it's difficult to say if these are signs of slowdown. XB1 is likely down due to XB1X launching last year. PS4 could be down due to a lack of promotions. But I think it's likely that sales will start to wind down from here on out for PS4/XB1, which are now entering their 6th year on the market.
     
    #9 djskribbles, Jan 22, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2019
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  10. Silent_Buddha

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    To round things out...

    https://venturebeat.com/2019/01/22/...h-bros-beats-spider-man-in-exclusives-battle/

    Top 20
    1. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate*
    2. Call of Duty: Black Ops 4**
    3. Red Dead Redemption II
    4. Battlefield V**
    5. NBA 2K19
    6. Mario Kart 8*
    7. Madden NFL 19**
    8. Super Mario Party*
    9. Pokemon: Lets Go Pikachu*
    10. Marvel’s Spider-Man
    11. Assassin’s Creed: Odyssey
    12. Pokemon: Lets Go Eevee*
    13. Super Mario Odyssey*
    14. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild*
    15. Just Cause 4
    16. FIFA 19
    17. Grand Theft Auto V
    18. Minecraft
    19. Spyro Reignited Trilogy**
    20. Fallout 76*
    Holiday + Nintendo + Super Smash Bros. Ultimate = top of the charts. That one should surprise no one.

    So it likely wasn't only Nintendo Super Smash Bros. fans picking it up. Not surprising as the title is very accessible and gets a ton of word of mouth.

    So someone finally supplanted Halo: Reach for sales in a launch month for an exclusive in the US. Impressive. Also impressive that Halo: Reach held onto the title for that long considering some of the PS4 exclusives that launched this year.

    And that was without digital sales numbers. So only Nintendo knows by just how much Super Smash Bros. literally smashed by all other exclusive launches.

    Speaking of Nintendo, they took 7 of the top 20 spots with single SKU (exclusive) titles. Again no surprise, as Nintendo almost always does well during the Holiday shopping season.

    I think Marvel's Spider-Man is the only other single SKU title in the list.

    Unfortunately they didn't post any of the other charts that they usually post.

    RDR2 remains the top selling title of 2018.
     
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  11. lefantome

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    Switch is doing well in the US thanks to positive buzz they got since launch that was substained by launching all their stronger IPs in less than two years.

    This helps keeping the Switch selling about as much as the 3DS worldwide because in Japan Switch is far behind compared to 3DS alone.

    In my opinion Switch sold a lot to hardcore consumers and people around that demographic, now it has to go after the casual if it wants to keep the same sales trajectory of the 3DS (While replacing on the market not one but three consoles compared to the previous generation: 3DS, Wii U and PS Vita)

    It will be interesting to see if it will be able to keep those sales worldwide and which effects the inevitable 2019 price cut and new skus are going to have.

    I hope they will release a cheap (200$) Switch Tv sooner or later.
     
  12. lefantome

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    According to people, PS4 was sold at full price in december and the Spider-Man bundle for Black Friday was extremely supply limited.

    With a price cut next year, PS4 can still do good, Xbox? I don't know.
    Both console have probably 3 more years of decent sales.
     
  13. Dr Evil

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    Great result for Nintendo, only just now realized that Switch sold more in December than PS4 and One combined...
     
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  14. Silent_Buddha

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    What's also potentially interesting depending on how the market goes and what titles get released for NSW is that while PS4 and XBO are likely going to be declining in sales now, the NSW sales might still be on the rise throughout next year.

    Of course, if Nintendo can't keep people interested that might not happen. But as it also functions as a handheld, I don't think we're going to see sales start declining just yet.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  15. Shifty Geezer

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    Nintendo would be screwed if NSW sales followed XB1/PS4 considering it released 4 years later! It should be on the rise and peaking a couple of years from now if it's not going to be a flash-in-the-pan failure.
     
  16. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    Like the WiiU. Which was the actual ps4/xb1 competitor in terms of generations of home consoles.

    We shouldn't forget that Switch canibalized the wiiu and the 3ds, as it replaced both at the same time. As of now Nintendo exists in their own market segment. They leveraged their continuous dominance of the portable market into a hybrid console.

    Still it just begun, they can easily stretch the switch into a very long generation with their own version of a mid-gen refresh in a year or two.
     
    #16 MrFox, Jan 25, 2019
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2019
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  17. BRiT

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    I didnt think the WiiU was selling in enough quantities to be considered "canibalized".
     
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  18. MrFox

    MrFox Deludedly Fantastic
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    I forgot it sold 13M lifetime, almost half of it was the first 14 months, then it crashed long before switch was announced. People just continued playing with their wii (as people do) and upgraded to the switch.
     
  19. BRiT

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  20. lefantome

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    Wii U counts, there were lots of people having a Wii U but not a 3DS, this counts a lot in the first two years.

    Also PS Vita, it sold above 15 millions and many of the people that bought it and never owned a 3DS may be interested in Switch (It's successor for an hardware point of view)
     
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