NPD July 2007

[scooby_dooby]

When I look at the 360 library, I see shooter, shooter, racer, shooter, an rpg sprinkled here or there, shooter, shooter, shooter.

Roll off the major titles that people talk about for this year and they're practically all shooters or games with shooter elements, or racers. BioShock, Mass Effect, Lost Planet, Halo 3, Forza 2, etc.

And many articles that I read on the 360 bemoan it's limited library appeal, which is one reason why Viva Pinata is being touted so heavily by MS to try and capture the market segment that has worked so well for Nintendo.

Well that's your own biased outlook then. Here's the last 50 Xbox 360 games, there are maybe a dozen shooters/racers:
http://www.gamespot.com/reviews.htm...e=all&sort=post_date&dlx_type=all&sortdir=asc

I think what you mean to say is, 360 lacks platformers. That's a much more accurate and realistic statement, and one I would agree with. In virtually every other genre it is leading the pack.

It is true that MS's 1st party lineup is primarily shooters, racers or action games. But there is still Lost Odyssey, Blue Dragon, Alan Wake, Fable 2, Ninja Gaiden 2, Banjo Threeie and many other exclusives which are not shooters. So, you're obviously exagerating considerably.

In fact how many shooters has MS 1st party released...GoW, PD0...and?

Why not? I'm a traditional/hardcore gamer and I play and love those kinds of games, and I love the kinds of games you mentioned.

Your own anecdotal experience nothwithstanding, the wii Currently offers nothing even close to those experiences. Where is my hardcore racing Sim on Wii? Where is my 80 hour cutting edge RPG with breathtaking graphics? The Wii is not selling out based on those types of games, it's selling out based on it's fun, short, light mini-games.

And you make that assessment how exactly?

By looking at the Wii's library, and seeing the obvious dirth of quality traditional titles, while it still smashes sales records.

Fairly easy to surmise that consumers are loving these mini-games, with the nifty controls, and that is what's driving sales, not the quality titles that have driven sales in the past.

Btw, the best selling Wii title to date that wasn't a pack-in? Zelda Twilight Princess. That game is certainly not what you would think would appeal to the "casual" gamer now is it?

The reality is that Wii Sports outsold Zelda. I mean, that one statement right there speaks volumes about the Wii demographic.

To ascribe its current success to one item is to miss the bigger picture imo.

I never did any such thing. I attribute it's success to an excellent interface which is attracting many non-traditional gamers who would otherwise be intimidated, and a good lineup of games that cater to this audience.

You made the statement that high-end big budget titles would solely be the purview of 360/PS3, and that they would battle for the hardcore/traditional gamer market. I disagreed with that for the reasons I stated above this quote.

No, I never said 'solely', obviously there will be SOME high budget ports to Wii. I said primarily, and I stand by that.

Point being, those games are gorgeous games. Are they on the same level graphically as 360/PS3 games? No. But they're not fugly. And as we know, graphics aren't everything to a game.

You place an artificial limit on the "hardcore/traditional" gaming segment by seeming to insist that we only want better graphics....

Am I not hardcore/traditional? Are there not many more just like me?

It's not just better graphics, Wii's very controls lend themselves to less complex, more simplified games. As for graphics, it's better everything, AI, lighting, immersion, emergent gameplay etc. It's about advancing gaming and Wii will always be far more limiting in that regard.

Most developers looking to push the envelope in terms of epic games with breathtaking graphics are going to want to develop on 360 or PS3, and Wii will be an afterthought.

There's a reason for that. By and large the best titles have been 1st party. And yet titles that were high quality have sold extremely well. Ubisoft's release sales can attest to that.

Sorry, but that's just more spin. The fact is, aside from a handful of exceptions(ubisoft), 3rd party software is NOT selling well on Wii. It's decent attach rate comes almost entirely from 1st party titles, whereas with Xbox360 the majority of it's software attach is generated by 3rd party sales.

This is a key differentiator, not to be swept under the rug or ignored. It will be absolutely a key factor in influencing publishers.

It will be for a while unless they want to bleed even more money. I don't see the PS3 dropping into the $300-$400 range for another year or two at least. MS could drop the 360 into the $200-$300 range if they wanted to, and that will pretty much seal Sony's hopes of catching the 360.

PS3 will have it's best sales at $299 or $199, obviously. Like every other console. They still have plenty of time to catch up, especially if they start moving units in Japan where MS is doa.

 

[Zaphod]

The reality is that Wii Sports outsold Zelda. I mean, that one statement right there speaks volumes about the Wii demographic.

You do realize that Wii sports is a pack-in in all territories except Japan, right? Considering that Zelda did ~560K to date in Japan (Windwalker did 860K on the GC), I'd call that pretty good. In the end, Twilight Princess (on Wii) will probably outsell Windwalker (on GC) by a decent margin as sales trickle in over the next couple of years. Considering that the Japanese loves their minigames and that Wii Sports is an exceptional case and the embodiment of Wii mindshare, I don't find anything weird about that at all. It certainly doesn't say anything about what games can and can't do well on the platform once you put quality titles out there.

 

[scooby_dooby]

You do realize that Wii sports is a pack-in in all territories except Japan, right? Considering that Zelda did ~560K to date in Japan (Windwalker did 860K on the GC), I'd call that pretty good. In the end, Twilight Princess (on Wii) will probably outsell Windwalker (on GC) by a decent margin as sales trickle in over the next couple of years. Considering that the Japanese loves their minigames and that Wii Sports is an exceptional case and the embodiment of Wii mindshare, I don't find anything weird about that at all. It certainly doesn't say anything about what games can and can't do well on the platform once you put quality titles out there.

Ok, well maybe this paints a clearer picture:

North America - Week Ending Aug 18

Madden 2008 (X360) - 889,072 (13% of install base)
Madden 2008 (PS3) - 204,025 (11% of install base)
Madden 2008 (Wii) - 57,247 (1.3% of install base)

On Madden 2008 both PS3 and 360 outselling Wii 10:1 relative to install base.

http://www.vgchartz.com/aweekly.php

 

[Zaphod]

Ok, well maybe this paints a clearer picture:

On Madden 2008 both PS3 and 360 outselling Wii 10:1 relative to install base.

So? A game with the 360 as the lead platform (as far as advertising goes), a strong Pplaystation pedigree, and hardly any history to speak of with Nintendo.

I don't think anyone is arguing that Wii owners are more likely to buy casual games or that some games will do significantly better on other platforms. It's jsut that some people seems to equate this with the 'fact' that 'proper' games can't and won't do well on Wii. This should be an obvious fallacy.

When the MP3: Corruption numbers come in over the next couple of weeks and turn out to suck, then we'll talk.

 

[AlphaWolf]

When the MP3: Corruption numbers come in over the next couple of weeks and turn out to suck, then we'll talk.

We all know they aren't going to suck, but how it does in comparison to other top line titles on other consoles will be a good indication of wii sales possibilities.

 

[scooby_dooby]

So? A game with the 360 as the lead platform (as far as advertising goes), a strong Pplaystation pedigree, and hardly any history to speak of with Nintendo.

This may account for a 2:1 or even 3:1 sales gap, but 10:1? Sorry that's nonsense.

The obvious answer is the Wii demographic is less interested in a traditional title like Madden. The userbase of PS3 and 360 are much more likely to buy such a title.

I expect that to be the case for the vast majority of 3rd party 'traditional' games, and as such, Wii has almost no chance of becoming lead platform on these types of titles. Even if ends up being "#1" in WW install base.

Wii will get it's own types of titles, that cater to the new audience it's attracting. They'll most likely be shorter in length, and cheaper to purchase.

 

[scooby_dooby]

Perhaps there's another way to illustrate the point.

------------------------
Worldwide Million Selling Software (3rd Party)

Wii:
Rayman Raving Rabbits
Red Steel

X360:
Call of Duty 2
Tom Clancy Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Madden NFL 07
Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas
Call of Duty 3
Fight Night Round 3
Lost Planet: Extreme Condition
Dead Rising
Saints Row
Need for Speed: Most Wanted
Need For Speed: Carbon
Tom Clancy Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2
Project Gotham Racing 3 Microsoft
Guitar Hero II
Tom Clancy Splinter Cell: Double Agent
--------------------------

Yet Wii has an equal install base.

 

[Zaphod]

This may account for a 2:1 or even 3:1 sales gap, but 10:1? Sorry that's nonsense.

Sure. Mindshare alone only accounts for some of the difference. Then there's owners with both a Wii as well as one of the other consoles (PS2/PS3/360) where I expect the PS2 to win out on pedigree and, the others to win on the wiz-bang factor.

The obvious answer is the Wii demographic is less interested in a traditional title like Madden. The userbase of PS3 and 360 are much more likely to buy such a title.

When all are released at the same time? Sure.

I expect that to be the case for the vast majority of 3rd party 'traditional' games, and as such, Wii has almost no chance of becoming lead platform on these types of titles. Even if ends up being "#1" in WW install base.

For established franchises? I agree.

However: If the Wii continue to outpace the other two at the current rate (and attach rates doesn't drop through the floor) I have little doubt that publishers will fund what they deem being the best bets for profit first. This will (unless the whole business grows along with Wii sales) limit the options of studios as there won't be as much money to go around for funding 'big' titles as there otherwise might have been (had Wii sales been in GC territory).

Thus, the Wii may very well become the platform leader in how willing publishers are to part with their money. I can easily see a potential future in which a developer pitching a concept for a high end title at cost X being told to come back with a design for a Wii game at 1/3X before there's any talk about funding their original proposal. Assuming the Wii becomes the dominant market leader as far as install base goes, it doesn't really matter if the attach rate isn't as good as for the 360. The lower development cost can (will) make the Wii a vey attractive proposition for those holding the cash, and this could impact funding for high budget titles on the other platforms (unless you're a 1st party, an established name, or building on a proven franchise).

Wii will get it's own types of titles, that cater to the new audience it's attracting. They'll most likely be shorter in length, and cheaper to purchase.

Really? Again, let's talk when MP3 numbers turn out to suck.

Yet Wii has an equal install base.

And a year less for developers to catch up with a phenomenon that cought everyone by surprise. How many million sellers did the 360 have a year ago, and how many of these were highly anticipated? No one is arguing that Wii doesn't lack quality 3rd party software.

 

[Natoma]

Well that's your own biased outlook then. Here's the last 50 Xbox 360 games, there are maybe a dozen shooters/racers:
http://www.gamespot.com/reviews.htm...e=all&sort=post_date&dlx_type=all&sortdir=asc

I think what you mean to say is, 360 lacks platformers. That's a much more accurate and realistic statement, and one I would agree with. In virtually every other genre it is leading the pack.

It is true that MS's 1st party lineup is primarily shooters, racers or action games. But there is still Lost Odyssey, Blue Dragon, Alan Wake, Fable 2, Ninja Gaiden 2, Banjo Threeie and many other exclusives which are not shooters. So, you're obviously exagerating considerably.

In fact how many shooters has MS 1st party released...GoW, PD0...and?

All I did was list the titles that I see touted over and over again, whether it be here at B3D, over at IGN, at Gametrailers, 1up, ShackNews etc.

It's Bioshock, Mass Effect, Lost Planet, Halo 3, Forza 2, etc all day every day. There was no bias intended.

I hadn't heard of Lost Odyssey or Blue Dragon or Fable 2. Alan Wake, yea, but I thought that was a PC game. Ninja Gaiden 2? I thought that was PS3 exclusive?

Didn't know that Rare was working on Banjo Kazooie. Actually, I asked this question in an earlier thread and didn't really get any confirmation/denial on this front, so I assumed that what I stated was correct.

Thanks for the link and clarification.

Your own anecdotal experience nothwithstanding, the wii Currently offers nothing even close to those experiences. Where is my hardcore racing Sim on Wii? Where is my 80 hour cutting edge RPG with breathtaking graphics? The Wii is not selling out based on those types of games, it's selling out based on it's fun, short, light mini-games.

You're shifting goalposts here.

You made the statement that the Wii is selling solely as a party system. Well, I want a Wii not for the party games, but for the traditional games with a different interface. And there are a lot of others who are in the same boat.

But yes, a lot of the sales are from casuals. My original point was the PS1 and PS2 sold to casuals and hardcore, and they didn't split the market in any way shape or form. I also stated that the PS1 and PS2 got to 100m not from hardcore/traditional gamers, but from the casual market.

Now you're saying that the Wii doesn't have those games, so it's not appealing to the hardcore/traditional market. Well, neither did the 360 when it launched. And in fact, the library was rather barren until almost a year later.

But if you want, I can list some "hardcore" that are coming, or out already:

Fire Emblem (RPG)
Dragon Quest Swords (RPG)
Mario Kart (Racer)
Battalion Wars (Strategy)
Metroid Prime 3 (FPS)
The GodFather BlackHand (3rd Person Exploration)
Scarface (3rd Person Exploration)
SSX Blur (Sports)
Sonic and the Secret Rings (3rd Person Adventure)
Excite Truck (Racer)
Zelda Twilight Princess (3rd Person Exploration)
Super Mario Galaxy (Platformer)
Super Smash Bros Brawl (Fighter)
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles (3rd Person Horror Genre)
Donkey Kong Jet Race (Racer)
Need For Speed: Carbon (Racer)
The Bigs (Sports)
Mario Strikers: Charged (Sports)
NBA Live 08 (Sports)
Madden 07 & 08 (Sports)
Tiger Woods 07 & 08 (Sports)

Now, I'm not saying that all of these are super high quality games, but they're at the very least solid games.

By looking at the Wii's library, and seeing the obvious dirth of quality traditional titles, while it still smashes sales records.

Fairly easy to surmise that consumers are loving these mini-games, with the nifty controls, and that is what's driving sales, not the quality titles that have driven sales in the past.

You overlook the good games that are on the system that aren't mini-games however. See above.

The reality is that Wii Sports outsold Zelda. I mean, that one statement right there speaks volumes about the Wii demographic.

That's just not a fair comparison. Wii Sports is a pack-in game in every territory save Japan. And even in Japan it sold with nearly an 80% attach rate at last check.

That's why I used the "non-pack-in" qualifier.

I never did any such thing. I attribute it's success to an excellent interface which is attracting many non-traditional gamers who would otherwise be intimidated, and a good lineup of games that cater to this audience.

No, I never said 'solely', obviously there will be SOME high budget ports to Wii. I said primarily, and I stand by that.

Ok, I read your original statement differently, but it's all good either way.

It's not just better graphics, Wii's very controls lend themselves to less complex, more simplified games. As for graphics, it's better everything, AI, lighting, immersion, emergent gameplay etc. It's about advancing gaming and Wii will always be far more limiting in that regard.

Most developers looking to push the envelope in terms of epic games with breathtaking graphics are going to want to develop on 360 or PS3, and Wii will be an afterthought.

Considering the power of the Wii in comparison to the gamecube/ps2/xbox generation (at least 2-3x more powerful), the games should be more complex, have better AI, lighting, immersion, and emergent gameplay.

To the same level as the 360/PS3? Certainly no. But certainly better than the last generation.

Sorry, but that's just more spin. The fact is, aside from a handful of exceptions(ubisoft), 3rd party software is NOT selling well on Wii. It's decent attach rate comes almost entirely from 1st party titles, whereas with Xbox360 the majority of it's software attach is generated by 3rd party sales.

This is a key differentiator, not to be swept under the rug or ignored. It will be absolutely a key factor in influencing publishers.

Ubisoft, Capcom, EA (several games like Madden 07 Harry Potter have come close to outselling the 360, or have outsold the 360 version), Sega (again, outselling PS3 and 360 on games like Sonic), Square-Enix (DQ-Swords, for example), etc have sold VERY well.

DQ-Swords, for example, has sold well over 1m copies to date, at the very least.

PS3 will have it's best sales at $299 or $199, obviously. Like every other console. They still have plenty of time to catch up, especially if they start moving units in Japan where MS is doa.

All I'm saying is that they're a long ways away from $199 and $299 price point. I'm projecting a year or two at the very least for those price points unless they decide to bleed a ton of money to get sales ramped up now.

 

[Natoma]

Perhaps there's another way to illustrate the point.

------------------------
Worldwide Million Selling Software (3rd Party)

Wii:
Rayman Raving Rabbits
Red Steel

X360:
Call of Duty 2
Tom Clancy Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Madden NFL 07
Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas
Call of Duty 3
Fight Night Round 3
Lost Planet: Extreme Condition
Dead Rising
Saints Row
Need for Speed: Most Wanted
Need For Speed: Carbon
Tom Clancy Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2
Project Gotham Racing 3 Microsoft
Guitar Hero II
Tom Clancy Splinter Cell: Double Agent
--------------------------

Yet Wii has an equal install base.

That Wii list rather american centric.

Try going abroad.

Additionally, some of those games came out even before the Wii was released. And Madden 07? VGCharts says it sold 450-500k. Nowhere near a million?

 

[scooby_dooby]

However: If the Wii continue to outpace the other two at the current rate (and attach rates doesn't drop through the floor) I have little doubt that publishers will fund what they deem being the best bets for profit first. This will (unless the whole business grows along with Wii sales) limit the options of studios as there won't be as much money to go around for funding 'big' titles as there otherwise might have been (had Wii sales been in GC territory).

Thus, the Wii may very well become the platform leader in how willing publishers are to part with their money. I can easily see a potential future in which a developer pitching a concept for a high end title at cost X being told to come back with a design for a Wii game at 1/3X before there's any talk about funding their original proposal. Assuming the Wii becomes the dominant market leader as far as install base goes, it doesn't really matter if the attach rate isn't as good as for the 360. The lower development cost can (will) make the Wii a vey attractive proposition for those holding the cash, and this could impact funding for high budget titles on the other platforms (unless you're a 1st party, an established name, or building on a proven franchise).

This is all possible, but there is absolutely no evidence to support your theory right now.

It's the 360 which is truly showing it's a profit generator for 3rd parties, the Wii still has to prove that.

Really? Again, let's talk when MP3 numbers turn out to suck.

Why would they suck, Nintendo has always had a very loyal, core fanbase. Obviouslly they will buy titles such as Metroid and Zelda. The question is, when is a fairly hohum 3rd party game like COD3 gonna come out and sell 1.6million copies on Wii (like it did on 360 last xmas?).

Anyways, Gamasutra has a nice analysis on the July NPD which hits most of my own observations.

Nintendo was the only hardware manufacturer whose own titles appeared in the top ten this month. This has become the norm for Wii and Nintendo DS software: the top-selling software is always published by Nintendo of America while third parties scramble for whatever money Nintendo fans have left over. If we further restrict our focus to the Wii's top ten list, we see that Capcom's Resident Evil 4 is still selling well. Take Two's The Bigs, EA's Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, and Activision's Transformers: The Game barely make the Wii-specific list at positions 8, 9, and 10, respectively. Keep in mind that all three of those games sold for two full weeks in June and only The Bigs made June's top ten Wii games. After this appearance at the bottom of the list, all three games will probably disappear completely from the charts. We can safely assume that each of the third party games sold fewer than 100,000 copies during July, which means their final sales numbers will be dismal. Third parties are currently talking about shifting resources to take advantage of the Wii's success, but the Wii market has yet to prove itself a goldmine for anyone but Nintendo.

None of the top twenty games this month were published by Microsoft, but four Xbox 360 titles by three other publishers did. Xbox 360 system sales might still be behind expectations, but the existing base continues to make plenty of money for third parties. Halo 3 will certainly dominate sales in the coming months, and any push that the Xbox 360 receives should continue to benefit publishers like Electronic Arts and Activision.

 

[Natoma]

Ok, well maybe this paints a clearer picture:

North America - Week Ending Aug 18

Madden 2008 (X360) - 889,072 (13% of install base)
Madden 2008 (PS3) - 204,025 (11% of install base)
Madden 2008 (Wii) - 57,247 (1.3% of install base)

On Madden 2008 both PS3 and 360 outselling Wii 10:1 relative to install base.

http://www.vgchartz.com/aweekly.php

This may account for a 2:1 or even 3:1 sales gap, but 10:1? Sorry that's nonsense.

The obvious answer is the Wii demographic is less interested in a traditional title like Madden. The userbase of PS3 and 360 are much more likely to buy such a title.

I expect that to be the case for the vast majority of 3rd party 'traditional' games, and as such, Wii has almost no chance of becoming lead platform on these types of titles. Even if ends up being "#1" in WW install base.

Wii will get it's own types of titles, that cater to the new audience it's attracting. They'll most likely be shorter in length, and cheaper to purchase.

Well that's not exactly fair. Madden 2008 has been hyped by MS for the past year as one of the defining games for the console. Advertising has been rather extensive.

You barely heard a peep about Madden on the Wii.

In fairness, Madden 2007 sold ~400k copies worldwide on the Wii in comparison to the 360 where it sold ~450-500k copies.

 

[Scott_Arm]

I don't think Wii will ever be the primary development platform for multiplatform titles. It just doesn't make sense. The technology is far too different from the other consoles. What you'll get is the PS3 or 360 being chosen as the primary next gen platform and a seperate team working on a unique Wii version that may serve as the primary platform for the older gen systems. Still, as the Wii sells more and more, it'll get more focus and dollars from designers, as long as the titles keep making money. Ubisoft seems to be happy.

I'm not convinced Metroid will sell huge numbers on the Wii. I don't watch tv that much, but are they running a lot of ads? Great games go under the radar all the time, if not advertised. Gears of War did well because it was advertised heavily on television. I'm not saying it didn't deserve the attention it got, I just don't believe it would have sold so well without the heavy advertising campaign. I think Nintendo is somewhat dropping the ball when it comes to advertising games. Hopefully for Wii owners, 3rd parties will do a better job.

 

[scooby_dooby]

That Wii list rather american centric.

Try going abroad.

Actually those ARE Worldwide numbers...
http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=Wii&publisher=&sort=Total

And Madden 07? VGCharts says it sold 450-500k. Nowhere near a million?

According to VGChartz, it sold 1.62M in the US?
http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=X360&publisher=&sort=Total

 

[Natoma]

This is all possible, but there is absolutely no evidence to support your theory right now.

It's the 360 which is truly showing it's a profit generator for 3rd parties, the Wii still has to prove that.

Why would they suck, Nintendo has always had a very loyal, core fanbase. Obviouslly they will buy titles such as Metroid and Zelda. The question is, when is a fairly hohum 3rd party game like COD3 gonna come out and sell 1.6million copies on Wii (like it did on 360 last xmas?).

Anyways, Gamasutra has a nice analysis on the July NPD which hits most of my own observations.

1) By all accounts, COD3 on the Wii was mediocre at best. Washed out textures (why in the world did it look worse than the PS2 for cripes sake??), obviously tacked on controls, etc.

FarCry Wii was simply an abomination. Why would you expect it to sell well?

2) If MS was releasing Halo 3 quality games all the time, do you honestly believe 3rd parties would be doing as well on their system?

And it hasn't always been that 3rd party games haven't sold well. Back in the NES/SNES/N64 days when developers actually put resources on the system, they sold very well. When developers put crap on the system (farcry, cod3, cruisin, etc), how in the world could they expect to sell?

 

[Natoma]

Actually those ARE Worldwide numbers...
http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=Wii&publisher=&sort=Total

According to VGChartz, it sold 1.62M in the US?
http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=X360&publisher=&sort=Total

Something's not right here. DQ Swords, for example, debuted at 350-400k copies sold in its first couple of days and topped the japanese charts thereafter until early August.

And when I looked at the sales for VGChartz two weeks ago, it stated Madden 07 for 360 was at 450-500k copies sold, with Wii at 400k copies sold.

 

[Zaphod]

This is all possible, but there is absolutely no evidence to support your theory right now.

I'm not claiming it for a certainty, just a possibility. There were plenty of press reports regarding studios shifting resources to the Wii as not to be left in the wake when it became clear that it was selling well above expectations. While this might lead to a slew of the proverbial shovelware, I have absolutely no doubt that the current install base is way too large to ignore for titles that haven't emerged yet. We're only ten months into the Wii lifetime, and quality games doesn't appear out of thin air overnight when the industry has been caught by surprise.

It's the 360 which is truly showing it's a profit generator for 3rd parties, the Wii still has to prove that.

Agreed.

Why would they suck, Nintendo has always had a very loyal, core fanbase. Obviouslly they will buy titles such as Metroid and Zelda. The question is, when is a fairly hohum 3rd party game like COD3 gonna come out and sell 1.6million copies on Wii (like it did on 360 last xmas?).

How many Nintendo fanboys do you expect there to be on the Wii given the history of the GC? Me, I'd rather see strong MP3 sales as an indication that Wii owners will buy and play 'proper' as long as they're also good games.

 

[scooby_dooby]

1) By all accounts, COD3 on the Wii was mediocre at best. Washed out textures (why in the world did it look worse than the PS2 for cripes sake??), obviously tacked on controls, etc.

Right, but I thought gfx didn't matter?? Where are all these traditional gamers like you, who don't care about GFX?

2) If MS was releasing Halo 3 quality games all the time, do you honestly believe 3rd parties would be doing as well on their system?

This seems like an odd question. I don't think Wii Play, Wii Sports, Mario Party 8 and Wario Ware are Halo level games first of all.

Secondly, I just fundamentally disagree that it's the quality of Nintendo games that is stealing the thunder.

The fact is, imo, that the people buying Wii's just aren't going to buy many games. They are extremely casual gamers, who just won't spend alot of money buying new games for the system.

I think the evidence backs me up, the top selling Wii game in teh US was 90,000 units, while the 360 moved almost 900,000 for it's top game. This isn't a small disparity here. Granted 360 has about 50% more units out there, but we're talking about a difference of 1000%.

You're shifting goalposts here.

You made the statement that the Wii is selling solely as a party system. Well, I want a Wii not for the party games, but for the traditional games with a different interface. And there are a lot of others who are in the same boat.

But yes, a lot of the sales are from casuals. My original point was the PS1 and PS2 sold to casuals and hardcore, and they didn't split the market in any way shape or form. I also stated that the PS1 and PS2 got to 100m not from hardcore/traditional gamers, but from the casual market.

Now you're saying that the Wii doesn't have those games, so it's not appealing to the hardcore/traditional market. Well, neither did the 360 when it launched. And in fact, the library was rather barren until almost a year later. :smile:

Problem is you keep putting my statements into absolutes, when I don't make absolute statements. I never said Wii existed 'solely' as a party machine, simply that there is a trend emerging, and a large portion (not all!) of the userbase is using it this way.

I agree with what you're saying, and sure, Wii may very well draw some casuals away from PS3 or 360, as it offers them a better choice. But that's the split I'm talking about. The more casual gamers no longer need to buy a PS2, the Wii fits them much more.

Meanwhile, the types of game that traditional gamers* enjoy, are not in jeopardy on 360 or PS3 because that's where they will always perform the best.

*When I say traditional games, I mean the ones have routinely topped the sales charts in the past: Sports, Racing, Shooting, Sandbox etc.: http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=PS2&publisher=&sort=Total

Your list of titles seems ok, but I would wager that if we looked at the sales of the "traditional" 3rd party titles on that list (Scarface, Godfather, Need for Speed, NBA Live, Madden, Tiger Woods) the Wii versions will get absolutely slaughtered by the 36o, despite similar install bases.

Which just goes to show, Wii owners are not interested in ports from the other systems, the N-fans will by anything made by Nintendo, and the rest are looking for more casual types of experiences.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Perhaps there's another way to illustrate the point.

------------------------
Worldwide Million Selling Software (3rd Party)

Wii:
Rayman Raving Rabbits
Red Steel

X360:
Call of Duty 2
Tom Clancy Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter
Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion
Madden NFL 07
Tom Clancy Rainbow Six: Vegas
Call of Duty 3
Fight Night Round 3
Lost Planet: Extreme Condition
Dead Rising
Saints Row
Need for Speed: Most Wanted
Need For Speed: Carbon
Tom Clancy Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2
Project Gotham Racing 3 Microsoft
Guitar Hero II
Tom Clancy Splinter Cell: Double Agent
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Yet Wii has an equal install base.

That isnt a completely fair comparision though. First of all most of those titles are games that came out after +/- a year I believe, because the initial game libary wasnt exactly great on x360, just as is the case with Wii now and just as with x360 you see that by the end of the year the Wii will have its on fair share of quality titles. Also they had a longer time to sell. Its a known fact that atm there just isnt alot of quality wii software out there and you cant expect some shovelware to sell over a million.

the Wii market has yet to prove itself a goldmine for anyone but Nintendo.

Which is totally justified given the crap devs put out. Though apparantly (some) devs do make quite alot of cash on the Wii. For example Ubi's ubershit shovelware Wii/DS games make up 20% of their revenue. Imagen what that could be if they put out a good game.

August 26, 2007 - The development and subsequent sales success of casual games on Nintendo's Wii and DS is an "extremely profitable" business for Ubisoft, according to the company's CEO Yves Guillemot, who told Reuters at the Games Convention in Leipzig last week that these games help to finance the costly development of games for Microsoft's Xbox 360 and Sony's PlayStation 3.

Guillemot explained that the development of casual games costs anywhere from 1 million euros to 4 million, depending on how many platforms they're being created for. By comparison, a normal Wii game costs about 5 to 10 million euros, while an Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3 one costs from 10 million to 20 million.

Casual games are expected to contribute 20% of Ubisoft's revenue this year, which is up 10% on last year. Meanwhile, the entire games industry is attracting many more customers which are, according to Guillemot, "going to grow the market tremendously. I expect the market to grow by 50 percent in the next four years," he said, concluding, "It's a very exciting time for all the developers and publishers."

Right, but I thought gfx didn't matter?? Where are all these traditional gamers like you, who don't care about GFX?

I always feel that comment gets out of context. You should see it more as anything GC+ is fine. But that doesnt mean psx like gfx are accaptable. It doesnt matter as long as it looks like it had some effort put into it and made good use of the power that was available but I alteast dont accept anything that like like a psp/midrange ps2 game.

 

[scooby_dooby]

It's funny, I almost posted that Ubisoft article earlier as well.

I think it shows Ubisoft shares a similar mindet as I do.

They have the traditional/big budget titles which will exist on the PS3/360, and then they have the more casual games which will exist on the Wii and generate very nice ROI.

For example:

Ubisoft, known for its realistic military games, on Wednesday announced a new title in its "Games for Everyone" range. "Cranium Kabookii," based on the award-winning board game Cranium, will be made for Nintendo's Wii console and is slated for a December release.

This is exactly what I'm saying will happen, and is what I'm referring to as a split market.