NPD January 2010

Same is true for PS360 though. Wouldn't the best indicator be publisher financials, where they show us how much money they are making from the platforms? I never pay them close attention, but from little I foggily recall, I remember PS3 and 360 together generally making up the lion's share of EA's and Ubisoft's revenues.

I'm referring to Non-GAAP figures as GAAP figures include revenue deferral. GAAP figures include deferring revenue over the life of any game with a online aspect. Meaning that the $ received for a game sales isn't recorded once but quarterly over an time period calculated by each pubs. Non GAAP is straight revenue recorded during that quarter or year with no deferring.

http://gamerinvestments.com/video-g...09/ubisoft-reports-q3-2009-10-sales-down-2-7/

Ubisoft sales breakdown for holiday 2009. 30% of sales came from 360, 30% of sales came from PS3, 21% of sales came from the Wii and the other 19% was made from sales on the PC, DS, PSP and Autres (?).

http://investor.ea.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=443622

EA sales breakdown for holiday 2009. 42% of sales came from 360, 28% of sales came from PS3, 23% of sales came from the Wii and the other 5% was made from sales on the PS2.

http://investor.activision.com/results.cfm (click on link for earnings release table for Q4)

Activision sales breakdown for holiday 2009. 30% of sales came from 360, 23% of sales came from PS3, 14% of sales came from the Wii and the other 33% was made from sales on the MMORPG, PS2, PSP and DS.

Its should be noted for calender year 2009, Activision's 360 software business generated more net revenue than WOW.
 
Ubisoft sales breakdown for holiday 2009. 30% of sales came from 360, 30% of sales came from PS3, 21% of sales came from the Wii and the other 19% was made from sales on the PC, DS, PSP and Autres (?).
It's a mystery console that used to be codenamed Phantom. It does exist, albeit few know about it.
Autres means "Others" in French
 
But on the scale we're looking at here, the large publishers certainly aren't going ot be making millions selling niche titles! We know they make at best $20 a game sold, so their revenues are going to be directly proportional to units sold, and vice versa. There aren't going to be many cases where a title has made significantly more per copy than the norm. You'll have freaks like MW2 upsetting the balance, but we can account for those; it's not like there's going to be a 10 million selling title we've never heard of to give an unexpected financial boost!

Well, you also have to consider that the profit per unit sold is going to also be tied to developement costs.

So if you have a shovelware title that costs 50-100k to develope (probably an absurdly low number) then your profit per unit sale will be much higher and you won't need to sell many copies. Of course, being shovelware also means it's not likely you're going to sell huge numbers so your profit potential is going to be hugely limited, but that doesn't matter as much for a small studio.

The console holder makes the same per unit sold no matter what, so they don't really care as long as it doesn't hurt the console image. In that case, MS and Sony at least appear to be a bit pickier with regards to titles released on physical media, but they can afford to be as they can funnel shovelware developers to XBLA or PSN.

And, of course, that's also going to skew numbers and make direct comparisons with Wii even more difficult. Because a piece of shovelware that might be released on physical media for Wii might instead be released digitally for X360/PS3.

Regards,
SB
 
You might think a family-oriented sports game is "crap," but families with young kids might not.

Actually I liked the family oriented sports game nintendo released.

It's the 37 knockoff's that came after which were crap. I appreciate a quality game that is not to my tastes, I'm not referring to those types of games. I mean, I do own a Wii you know (I own all consoles, I also have a 4yr old with another on the way), and I do look at what's available. The amount of pure shit, is definately higher on the Wii than anywhere else...

Understandably so, it's the new big thing, and everyone wants their piece of the pie. That doesn't mean we can't admit that the reality exists...
 
Well, you also have to consider that the profit per unit sold is going to also be tied to developement costs.

So if you have a shovelware title that costs 50-100k to develope (probably an absurdly low number) then your profit per unit sale will be much higher and you won't need to sell many copies. ...
Yes. I'm probably not following the conversation closely enough to really know what spawned this talk, but if we're saying 'what's good for 3rd parties' then whether they are dumping shovelware on a platform or creating expensive AAA titles, what's good for them is what nets them the most money, which I still think appears in the financials (although I can't take into account stuff like GAAP which I know diddly squat about!).
 
But then you're back to the outlier issue. Check the charts that were posted. MW2 inflates the numbers to a point that really don't represent reality for anyone not named Activision.

But games were delayed because of MW2. If they hadn't someone could argue MW2 wouldn't have been so successful. Like I mentioned, what matters is how many dollars were spent on 3rd party games versus 1st party games. Yes, in October a big game was released. You don't leave out December sales out of an yearly average because it's christmas.

About the outlier issue, why MW2? Just because it's the top dog? How about the second most profitable game? Should we also ignore MW1 because it sold a ton of copies? Should we ignore the dozens of games that bombed spectacularly (Bionic Commando), after all, they are bringing down the average quite significantly.

All that chart proves is how big a splash MW2 made as fearsomepirate mentioned. The (real) third party chart with the MW2 numbers show PS360 users spent almost nothing on 1st party games during those months, unlike Wii users.
 
But games were delayed because of MW2. If they hadn't someone could argue MW2 wouldn't have been so successful.

Again, this is a hypocritical position. You haven't really addressed why this sort of selectivity is okay when it comes to MW2 but not when platform-holders throw other skewed pieces of data out there. Are you suggesting that without MW2 third-party sales would be anywhere close what they were at the end of last year?

Like I mentioned, what matters is how many dollars were spent on 3rd party games versus 1st party games.

No, what matters is how many dollars were spent on 3rd party games. The ratio is irrelevant, it's a useless piece of data. Maybe you mean in terms of the total software market for that platform, but the ratio won't tell you that. PS3's software sales aren't vastly better than 360's despite its first parties selling worst of the 3 platform holders.

About the outlier issue, why MW2? Just because it's the top dog? How about the second most profitable game? Should we also ignore MW1 because it sold a ton of copies? Should we ignore the dozens of games that bombed spectacularly (Bionic Commando), after all, they are bringing down the average quite significantly.

I answered this above; you should absolutely consider all outliers. We have no information about the data, unfortunately to be able to pick them out. And like I said above, it's my gut feeling, but I don't think, given how Nintendo collected data, that games selling even in the single-digits would necessary be outliers. By taking games across the entire lifetime of the console I think we end up with a pretty lopsided distribution. Removing all games with 0 sales doesn't help much.

Conversely, though, should we just add MW2 when having a discussion about third party sales and pretend that MW2's sales are somehow achievable by anyone other than Activision? I mean, that argument was attempted already in this thread.

All that chart proves is how big a splash MW2 made as fearsomepirate mentioned.

I'm not even sure if it does that; like I've said, I think the numbers are questionable in general.
 
To Richard and Obonicus...

Yes, the way the charts were generated I don't particularly like.

But with that out of the way.

We do have a full chart of 1st and 3rd. We have a chart with 3rd only. And a chart with 3rd minus MW2.

I think we can all agree that titles that sell large numbers are going to affect other titles to some degree. The degree to which it affects other titles is arguable but the first point is basically sound.

Likewise the presense of other titles may affect sales of the larger titles. Again degree of influence is debatable.

The 3rd party chart minus MW2, Obonicus is pointing out is basically Nintendo showing that it has an impact on 3rd party sales in a similar way as Nintento's 1st party sales does on 3rd party sales. This may be debatable to some degree as to the validity of such, but it is basically what they are trying to show.

In other words, don't focus on the chart so much. It's a PR driven chart trying to display what might be supressing the performance of 3rd party titles on the Wii platform.

And in the process they can take a subtle dig at MS by using numbers in such a way as to put their platform at an additional disadvantage.

Regards,
SB
 
That's probably not accurate, outlets don't review a lot of the stuff that comes out for Wii, particularly the low-budget stuff.

I'm sure its not 100% accurate, its merely an indication. It just doesn't seem very likely that Wii is getting almost as many third party games released for it as PS3 and XBox combined.
 
You're correct that you have to identify outliers on both ends, something we will never know about, at least until one of us starts subscribing to NPD just to win an argument. Like I said, I have a problem in general with the series of charts, but not with the exclusion of MW2.

Like i said. Either remove all outliers or none. Just removing MW2 is just manipulating data to suit your argument, and doesn't give you any real information, other than if you remove the highest outlier, your average will drop.
 
Like i said. Either remove all outliers or none. Just removing MW2 is just manipulating data to suit your argument, and doesn't give you any real information, other than if you remove the highest outlier, your average will drop.

Nintendo has the data, we don't, which is the main problem. So either they removed MW2 out of bad faith, because they incompetently constructed their chart or because it's actually consistent in their distribution. I don't completely believe the third entirely because Assassin's Creed 2 is probably an outlier as well, especially with how low the average without MW2 is.
 
Dec NPD

NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Nov-09 2.82M
WII FIT PLUS* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Oct-09 2.41M
WII SPORTS RESORT W/ WII MOTION PLUS* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Jul-09 1.79M
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* 360 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 1.63M
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* PS3 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 1.12M
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Feb-07 1.01M
MARIO KART W/ WHEEL WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Apr-08 936.1K
ASSASSIN'S CREED II 360 UBISOFT Nov-09 783.1K
LEFT 4 DEAD 2 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-09 728.5K
MARIO & LUIGI: BOWSER'S INSIDE STORY NDS NINTENDO OF AMERICA Sep-09 656.7K

Nov NPD

CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* 360 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 4.20M
CALL OF DUTY: MODERN WARFARE 2* PS3 ACTIVISION BLIZZARD Nov-09 1.87M
NEW SUPER MARIO BROS. WII WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Nov-09 1.39M
ASSASSIN'S CREED II 360 UBISOFT Nov-09 794.7K
LEFT 4 DEAD 2 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-09 744.0K
WII SPORTS RESORT* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Jul-09 720.2K
WII FIT PLUS* WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Oct-09 679.0K
ASSASSIN'S CREED II PS3 UBISOFT Nov-09 448.4K
DRAGON AGE: ORIGINS* 360 ELECTRONIC ARTS Nov-09 362.1K
MARIO KART W/ WHEEL WII NINTENDO OF AMERICA Apr-08 315.0K

Oct NPD

UNCHARTED 2: AMONG THIEVES (PS3; Oct-09) 537,000
WII FIT PLUS* (WII; Oct-09) 441,000
BORDERLANDS (360; Oct-09) 418,000
WII SPORTS RESORT* (WII; Jul-09) 314,000
NBA 2K10* (360; Oct-09) 311,000
HALO 3: ODST (360; Sep-09) 271,000
NBA 2K10* (PS3; Oct-09) 213,000
FORZA MOTORSPORT 3 (360; Oct-09) 175,000
KINGDOM HEARTS 358/2 DAYS (NDS; Sep-09) 169,000
FIFA SOCCER 10 (360; Oct-09) 156,000

Based off those charts about 73 million units were sold over the holiday season. The top ten NPD titles composed of 15 console titles for each of those 3 months account for 27.5 million or roughly 38% of all holiday sales. If you take account that total sales over that time period aren't accounted for 8 of those titles (unit sold when outside the top ten) then those 15 franchise would account for more than >38%.

If you look at the charts, Nintendo had about 37 first party titles (790 versus 753) with about ~15 million first party units sold (37 million versus ~22 million). If you look at the NPD top ten you will notice that 5 Wii title generated 12.8 million in sales, which means the other 32 titles generated somewhere around 2.2 million in sales.

The 360 generated 22 million in unit sales with the NPD top ten 360 (9 titles) games generating at least 10.6 million in sales which for except for 446K was generated by third party titles. Almost >48% of 360 sales were generated by just 9 titles.

The PS3 generated ~12.2 million in unit sales with the NPD top ten PS3 games (4 titles) generating at least 4.2 million in sales which for except for 537K was generated by third party titles. Almost >34% of PS3 sales were generated by just 4 titles.

The facts are that of the 13 PS3/360 skus that appeared in the NPD top over the holiday 2009, ten of them were third party titles that generated 13.8 million in unit sales or roughly ~$800 million in sales. An average of $80 million in revenue and 1.38 million in unit sales per NPD top ten third party sku or 2.76 million in unit sales or $160 million per multiplat. The Wii produced no top ten NPD third party title. If you remove MW2 thoses averages go down but thats better then zero divided by zero.
 
Nintendo has the data, we don't, which is the main problem.

I understand that there is lack of data, but that doesn't change the fact that removal of only one outlier is just manipulation of data to suit your argument. Lack of data doesn't allow you to subjectively remove one particular data point. Any arguments based on that statistic is completely invalid.

Aspecially when you consider the fact that the distrubution of sales is probably very assymetrical in distrubution. Where most titles sell extremely low numbers, while a few blockbusters make up for the majority of the sales. That is how the entertainment industry is distrubuted in terms of revenues.

Tbh, i haven't read through these thread at all. What are you actually trying to prove? That big titles that sell alot will remove sales from other games? That is impossible to prove by those charts. You'd need to prove that the average consumer will spend equally much on games, regardless of the big titles being there or not. Then, its straightforward to prove that MW2 or other big titles will remove revenues from the rest. And you will have a very hard time proving that the consumers will buy equally many games, regardless of what quality of games are avaiable. Most people i know only buy games that are reviewed extremely well. Otherwise, no sale. They will not buy a crappy game just because there is a lack of good games. Some people will. But until you do some research on that, you cannot really say anything. And the route people here are going with the charts is completely wrong.
 
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I understand that there is lack of data, but that doesn't change the fact that removal of only one outlier is just manipulation of data to suit your argument. Lack of data doesn't allow you to subjectively remove one particular data point. Any arguments based on that statistic is completely invalid.



Aspecially when you consider the fact that the distrubution of sales is probably very assymetrical in distrubution. Where most titles sell extremely low numbers, while a few blockbusters make up for the majority of the sales. That is how the entertainment industry is distrubuted in terms of revenues.

Which again, is why I have the problem with this chart as a whole, since it talks about an 'average' sale for games. We're probably looking at a lopsided distribution that doesn't bunch up around the average at all, so describing it just by the average doesn't really add any useful information.

Tbh, i haven't read through these thread at all. What are you actually trying to prove? That big titles that sell alot will remove sales from other games?

Nope, in fact the opposite; the original argument (not mine) was that the chart was absolutely bogus because removing MW2 doesn't exist in a vacuum, that the data isn't independent. If MW2 didn't exist, all other third-party games would sell differently. Which may be true (as you said, it's nearly impossible to prove, but 'sounds' reasonable). I happen to think this is a self-serving argument, though; we don't apply it evenly. Nintendo first-party software shapes its software landscape to a much greater degree than MW2 (to those who might dispute this claim, remember that Nintendo is carrying the top-selling console this generation pretty much on its own). But no one questions the validity of '3rd party sales' charts when they pop up.

I'm not even saying they should: it's likely (read: certain) that the intent of the chart (or of '3rd party sales charts' in general) isn't to offer an alternate history, some world in which MW2 (or Nintendo) never existed, but rather to try describe some situation in which MW2 (or Nintendo) sales warp the data and make it less useful. A sample criteria of 'all 3rd party games except for Modern Warfare 2' describes exactly that, as does '3rd party sales'.

For this chart in particular, though, well, at best what we get is 'MW2 sold a lot, Nintendo sells a lot'. Which we didn't really need Nintendo to tell us.

Also, to be perfectly clear, I'm not a Nintendo fan. I own a DS and a Wii, but I don't care much for their games (as a Sega kid, I don't even have the nostalgia link towards Mario). As a market-leader I think they do a particularly poor job and in fact last month argued for a long time with Teasy and others on this. But I think we're altogether too dismissive when it comes to Nintendo, we behave as if their success isn't real, or a fluke. When talking about games that's even reasonable, as they took a path that isn't compatible with this forum's preferences. In a sales thread, though, I find it intellectually dishonest.
 
Good posts dobwal.

The Wii 3rd party sales look good for Nintendo PR but are they good 3rd parties?

What I'd like to see is the Average Selling Price for the 3rd party Wii titles. This would give us a good idea on what scenarios are taking place.

High ASP (in relation to average MSRP) = good for 3rd party

Low ASP = the volume is coming from bargain bins and discounts. However, for Nintendo it's all the same. They still make their roylties and can brag about volume sold. 3rd parties clearly suffer.

I would also add that Publishers have a long habit of allowing large AAA projects which reap in significant profits to float smaller titles and development projects that may, or may not, be profitable. If a platform offers a publisher like EA or Activision a chance for 2 or 3 multi-million sellers that goes a long way to justify the general platform investment/risk. Even if small projects cost less and therefor need lower sales, even if this happens (big if) there is the trouble of getting the large multisellers to justify the general risk and hope for larger return. It isn't just enough to break even as they need to store up profits for investments, growth, and poor years.
 
OT to whatever this thread has become, but PS3 is suffering shortages and could suffer in February NPD.

I've checked stock online at Best Buy, Gamestop, and Target, and right now all are pretty much backorded online and showing no PS3's within 100 miles of me.

Although, Amazon currently has both models in stock.
 
I would also add that Publishers have a long habit of allowing large AAA projects which reap in significant profits to float smaller titles and development projects that may, or may not, be profitable. If a platform offers a publisher like EA or Activision a chance for 2 or 3 multi-million sellers that goes a long way to justify the general platform investment/risk. Even if small projects cost less and therefor need lower sales, even if this happens (big if) there is the trouble of getting the large multisellers to justify the general risk and hope for larger return. It isn't just enough to break even as they need to store up profits for investments, growth, and poor years.

Aye, that's why titles in stable large selling franchises are also very important. Whether you like COD series, Madden series, Sims series (especially on PC), World of Warcraft (again PC), etc. or not, there's a good chance they those titles allow the publisher to give the go ahead to fund dev costs for a title you like from the respective publisher.

Regards,
SB
 
OT to whatever this thread has become, but PS3 is suffering shortages and could suffer in February NPD.

I've checked stock online at Best Buy, Gamestop, and Target, and right now all are pretty much backorded online and showing no PS3's within 100 miles of me.

Although, Amazon currently has both models in stock.

That's odd with March coming up and some rather big titles. It's not like Sony didn't know about the titles releasing in March.

Hopefully they get this sorted before then.

Hmmm, then again, Sony could be deliberately holding back stock until March to ensure they have enough PS3's in stores in March when those big titles launch. Shortages in Jan. and Feb. with no high profile titles launching isn't as bad as having shortages in a month with some high profiles launching.

Regards,
SB
 
Exact opposite for Xbox 360 Elites in my area. I haven't seen this much stock on the Best Buy & Walmart shelves in a long time(15-20 units per store). Though I haven't seen a single Arcade unit. With MS stance on the limited edition SKUs(FFXIII & SCC) with the 250gb drive @ $400, I don't see any price drops or SKU changes for the Elite till May or June. Arcade might be a different story though.

Tommy McClain
 
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