NPD January 2010

Let's just put all of them in here:
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The purpose of the 3rd graph is to show just how much of the 3rd party sales on the 360 and PS3 were accounted for by the single biggest entertainment phenomenon of the HD generation. Pretty straightforward if you ask me.
Iwata said:
In recent video game software market, there is a huge gap between what sells very well and what sells very badly and this is a challenge for the whole industry.
 
That includes games by other publishers. It's not MS that is moving that software, it's the 3rd party publishers. This is about first-party, as per your response to fearsomepirate.

My response to him was not about 1st party, it was about the platform as a whole. Deny it as much as people want but their platform moves more "software and accessories" in total than any of the other platforms. Although to be fair Wii + DS "software and accessories is probably larger on a per unit basis as the software titles are cheaper, yes? I haven't really looked at DS title prices.

Come up with any reasons you'd like but the 3rd party publishers generally push titles equally on each platform. Sometimes the marketing push is focused on PS3, sometimes on X360, but it generally doesn't matter. The only outlier here is with regards to Wii, where I rarely see commercials for 3rd party titles.

At the end of the day, for whatever reasons, MS has cultivated an audience on X360 that thus far is willing to spend more per person than the other consoles.

You said that it moves more software than Nintendo, for chrissakes. No, it doesn't. Not absolutely, not relatively. Maybe the 360 platform as a whole might, but not Microsoft, no way, no how.

Yes, the X360 as a platform, I thought I was obvious about that, but I guess I should have gone into more detail. And Microsoft plays a hand quite often in cross-promotion with 3rd party publishers just like Sony does. Each of the platform holders generally plays an active party in promoting not only their first party titles but also their third party titles. Although I oddly enough don't see as much of that from Nintendo, at least with regards to TV advertising campaigns.

Please elaborate. The next Wii will have more robust online, but what sort of expansion of the Wii's capabilities have we seen? Playing games off SD charts? The DSi at best matches the Wii's featureset.

The fact that the Wii has them in the first place. I haven't been paying to much attention to that part of the Wii but I thought they were also selling old titles to download an play on Wii, or is that DS only? There's also been an increased push on Wii for online integration for games as well as some rudimentary multiplayer aspects (at least this is the perception I get watching Wii TV adverts in Japan the last time I was there).

Not hate; but you do seem to want to deny them any real credit (though you're not alone). I mean, you just called the Wii a fad.

I have no clue why people think FAD is a bad thing. Tamagotchi was a FAD. Cabbage Patch kids was a FAD. Every single one of those was an absolutely amazing financial success. I don't how anyone could take a fad as being even remotely a bad thing. Especially when you take into account by being a fad it rapidly launched the Wii into a commanding lead with regards to install base.

They all use numbers creatively to show themselves in a good light. Every single one of the BSes about online subscriptions or attach rate or first to 10 million.

I've said that. Multiple times... No debate there. I understand why they do it, it doesn't mean I have to agree with how they used the numbers.

When it comes to these numbers, -snip-

I agree, I don't particularly like that... I have no problem with what's called shovelware. It may dilute the offerings, but if someone somewhere finds value in them, then no skin off my back. And again I have no problems with their charts, only the way the numbers were generated. Not sure why you keep bringing that up. For me it's a non-issue.

They included a chart with All titles, Only 3rd party, and 3rd party without MW2. Anyone that has a problem with the chart without MW2 can just look at their chart with Only 3rd party. Have a problem with that, then look at All titles.

I understood the reasoning for all the charts, but everyone was arguing over the one chart, and some people couldn't seem to understand why some people would prefer the chart that has all 3rd party titles.

Yes, precisely. You're always the one to mention how install base isn't important. All of a sudden, because you want the data to behave the way you expect, you're back to saying it's important. Not to mention that when I speak of install-base it's in terms of ROI of a game on the PS3 when compared to the 360, when you're so diligently lamenting the fate of the poor PS3 games. That's not even what you're doing here; you're trying to use it absolutely, trying to paint MW2 as a more crucial piece of software than Wii first party, when the Wii's hardware sales often depend overly on their first party efforts.

Yes, it was probably a mistake not to put some kind of notation in there (/sarcasm) perhaps to illustrate just how ridulous things can become when you try to justify equality through install base. I suppose I was waiting to see what kind of reaction there would be to that from people who continue to deny that increased install base will not have some kind of linear relationship with increased unit sales of any given title. Although as I pointed out below unit sales for all titles released in a given time frame should grow in a closer relationship to install base. Thus unit sales per title should go up faster as there's less of a supressing effect by any one big selling title.

That still doesn't discount the fact that with such a huge outlier like MW2 which constitues 1/3-1/4 of the entire install base buying one game, it's going to have a huge impact on sales of other games.

With regards to PS3 games, that wasn't anywhere in my initial postings, but for myself. I'm still trying to figure out the PS3 userbase, it is not purchasing games in any way, shape, or form of what I'm expecting. Yes, the console was expensive that depressed unit sales and overall numbers for titles. But PS3 "should" have a higher unit sales per console than X360 but doesn't. I'm far more interested in reasons why it isn't doing as well as I expect, rather than trying to claim they are better due to install base ratios.

And that's exactly what I'm talking about. It'd be significant. Now look at the alternative, with Nintendo first party out of the picture. Which is the bigger deal? Which has a greater impact?

On a per title basis it should have less of an overall impact. While increased install base does not lead to sales of any One game rising in a linear relationship, it does allow for more concurrent high selling titles. Larger install bases will be able to support larger divergent tastes. And total unit sales will scale far better with regards to install base.

PS2 showed this behavior, fairly normal. NES had similar behavior. Wii thus far hasn't really. Even in months without a big Wii title, 3rd party sales are still less than expected. Although with presumably lower developement costs, you don't need as many unit sales to recoup costs either.

Terrific, so next time this discussion comes up I can expect you to agree with me on the validity of these charts.

Well, I'll agree that there isn't anything wrong with the MW2-less chart as there is a chart that includes MW2. As to the validity of the charts themselves, probably not as I don't particularly agree with how the numbers were used.

I don't say it should be removed; I'm saying that if removing it taints the data and makes it invalid, then we have to do the same when we arbitrarily choose to remove 1st party Nintendo from comparisons. We can't have it both ways; either a huge title perturbs the entire system or it doesn't. We can't choose to complain about data purity only when it's about a game that supports HD development.

Yes, I agree here, I far prefer all titles to be shown rather than picking and choosing any particular subset for PR reasons. While I may disagree as to the extent removing such and such title may have, I don't disagree with that fact that whether it is first party or 3rd party a large selling title will have some kind of trickle down effect on other titles sold in the same month.

But this isn't a situation that helps Nintendo. We all know that these shovelware games rarely show up even in NPD top 20 and we know that Nintendo has almost an exclusivity on that sort of low-budget game. Those games will generally sell poorly and throw the average per game way down. The only one that seems to be getting a actual advantage out of it is the PS3, with its shorter life and relatively large percentage of high-profile games.

Yes, but it's still Nintendo's decision to allow them to be published. Just like MS and Sony, Nintendo has the ability to veto any game being released on their system if they feel it would negatively impact perception of their console.

And yes, I'd agree that PS3 gets the most advantage out of that comparison. But as I said, I think Nintendo are far more concerned with perception versus MS, at least for the time being...

It would be interesting to see XBLA and PSN games included in such a chart. As I'm sure many of the titles on XBLA and PSN could be considered shovelware. Then again the nature of XBLA and PSN actually facilitates the release of shovelware as then you aren't even concerned with the prospect of trying to recoup duplication costs, especially if you duplicate too many copies.

Regards,
SB
 
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No, the chart is about third party releases without Modern Warfare 2. Just how 'third party sales' charts are about the software sales ecosystem without first-parties.

I was referring to the fact you brought in "missing first-party" argument to a "third-party" chart. :???:

We don't bat an eye about removing Nintendo from sales charts when it supports our point, but when Nintendo does it to an HD platform people are suddenly going 'well, wait a second'?

It's not about that. If Nintendo released games for the PS360 and _those_ were excluded you'd have a point. Both graphs have utility: you're comparing the amount of money platform holders make versus what third-parties make. When you exclude a third party (regardless of which platform) you're making the first parties look better than they really are.
 
I was referring to the fact you brought in "missing first-party" argument to a "third-party" chart. :???:

No, I brought a 'you guys are awfully selective when it comes to questioning bad data'.


It's not about that. If Nintendo released games for the PS360 and _those_ were excluded you'd have a point. Both graphs have utility: you're comparing the amount of money platform holders make versus what third-parties make. When you exclude a third party (regardless of which platform) you're making the first parties look better than they really are.

But then you're back to the outlier issue. Check the charts that were posted. MW2 inflates the numbers to a point that really don't represent reality for anyone not named Activision. There's nothing particularly questionable about removing MW2 when you're trying to discuss averages. There are other questionable factors to the chart but MW2 isn't it.
 
The purpose of the 3rd graph is to show just how much of the 3rd party sales on the 360 and PS3 were accounted for by the single biggest entertainment phenomenon of the HD generation. Pretty straightforward if you ask me.

Is Nintendo trying to point out how well a piece of software can perform on the competition's hardware? That's what it points out to me.
 
There's nothing particularly questionable about removing MW2 when you're trying to discuss averages.
yes there is, perhaps you want them to discuss median numbers (which usually is a better indicator for most things) if u use mean numbers then MW2 makes little difference to the mean,
 
There's nothing particularly questionable about removing MW2 when you're trying to discuss averages.

Ofcourse there is! You cannot just remove MW2. Why just MW2??? Plenty of other titles that sell abnormally well, or abnormally bad.. If your removing outliers, you have to remove all of them! Which would change your chart dramatically as there is plenty of games that are very very very very very bad sales wise.

If by average you are talking about the mean, then you shouldn't remove MW2. (shouldn't remove anything)
If your looking at median numbers, MW2 is not going to change anything!

If you want average statistics for "normal" games, you should remove all outliers both on the upside and downside and define your results accordingly. Which means that you would have to remove all abornmally performing games, both the ones that sell extraordinary amounts and the ones that sell extraordinary low amounts!
 
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Ofcourse there is! You cannot just remove MW2. Why just MW2??? Plenty of other titles that sell abnormally well, or abnormally bad.. If your removing outliers, you have to remove all of them! Which would change your chart dramatically as there is plenty of games that are very very very very very bad sales wise.

You're correct that you have to identify outliers on both ends, something we will never know about, at least until one of us starts subscribing to NPD just to win an argument. Nintendo did remove games with zero sales, though, which is a start. And this is just gut feeling, but given how the sampling is over all available games in a 3 month period and what we hear about regarding the fall-off for games sales, but I'd bet that sales in the single digits wouldn't even be outliers. Like I said, I have a problem in general with the series of charts, but not with the exclusion of MW2.
 
As a single platform Wii sells software really well, both first and third party software, atleast when the total numbers are put together. Wii does need a huge install base to achieve that though. Definitely Nintendo is by far the biggest moneymaker on the Wii, but with the other consoles third parties are much stronger compared to the first party.
 
Nintendo can make up as many bogus arguments as they want, trying to convince us that they sell as much 3rd party software as the rest.

But take a look at what the publishers are doing...which platform's are getting the most high profile, high budget titles? You can't argue with reality, and the reality is that pub's are pushing cheap, shovelware onto the Wii, and reserving their best "hit" titles, for the PS3/360/PC.

If Nintendo really could sell even close to PS3 numbers for these high profile titles, it would be getting a port, but it's not...

Ya, they sell ALOT of 3rd party software, spread out over their massive userbase who have no idea how to seperate quality from crap.
Every once in a while, a gem will show up and spread via word of mouth, but in the meantime a whole bunch of horrible games get bought.
 
Nintendo can make up as many bogus arguments as they want, trying to convince us that they sell as much 3rd party software as the rest.

But take a look at what the publishers are doing...which platform's are getting the most high profile, high budget titles?
Not all 3rd party titles are blockbusters. In fact, most aren't. If you're going to spend $20m or more developing a game and need to sell at least 2m units to break even, then yes, you are unlikely to succeed at your goal on Wii. But that's a big "if." But if your target is 50,000 sales, then maybe the Wii is a better bet, what with its lower development costs. That's probably why the Wii gets more 3rd party titles overall.
Ya, they sell ALOT of 3rd party software, spread out over their massive userbase who have no idea how to seperate quality from crap.
Or maybe the Wii's user base isn't as interested in "WW2 in space" games. I mean, as much as I enjoy Killzone 2, it's obviously not the kind of thing that everyone will think is cool. Customers define quality for themselves. If someone had fun with a game and it did what he wanted it to, it was a good game. You might think a family-oriented sports game is "crap," but families with young kids might not. It's all in the eye of the beholder. Is a SpongeBob game crap or wonderful? Depends on whether or not you're seven years old. Personally, I think Heavy Rain looks stupid and boring, but there are a lot of people here on the forum that loved the demo.
 
My response to him was not about 1st party, it was about the platform as a whole. Deny it as much as people want but their platform moves more "software and accessories" in total than any of the other platforms.
Yeah, see, this just isn't true. In total, Nintendo sells far more software and accessories.

In the Oct-Dec period, about 37 million Wii titles were sold in the USA (from the chart, 45K sales per title times 790 titles), and 22 million Xbox 360 titles were sold (same calculation). 37 is a bigger number than 22.
I have no clue why people think FAD is a bad thing.
Fads are short-lived. Wii just turned 3 in November and is still going strong. Just like every year is the Year of the PS3, every year is also the Year the Wii Bubble Bursts.
But PS3 "should" have a higher unit sales per console than X360 but doesn't.
Why? The PS3 and 360 are basically the same game console and should attract the same sort of customer.
 
Why? The PS3 and 360 are basically the same game console and should attract the same sort of customer.

I disagree. The PS3 customer base is not only game console focused. I know it's just a small representative sample, but I know many more non-gamers (those who don't even own a single game title) who own PS3s than non-gamers who own 360. Just this weekend, a woman friend mentioned having a PS3. I asked what games do you play? She said, I don't. I use it for movies.
 
Fads are short-lived. Wii just turned 3 in November and is still going strong. Just like every year is the Year of the PS3, every year is also the Year the Wii Bubble Bursts.

Yes, and if you watch NPD you'll also noted that Wii is trending down to X360/PS3 numbers with consistent YoY decreases for over a year now except for the holiday season, and the price cut did nothing to blunt that.. Whether it's this year or next, it'll be selling similar numbers (maybe more, maybe less, maybe variable month to month), except for the holiday quarter which it should still dominate quite handily.

Regards,
SB
 
The Wii 3rd party sales look good for Nintendo PR but are they good 3rd parties?

What I'd like to see is the Average Selling Price for the 3rd party Wii titles. This would give us a good idea on what scenarios are taking place.

High ASP (in relation to average MSRP) = good for 3rd party

Low ASP = the volume is coming from bargain bins and discounts. However, for Nintendo it's all the same. They still make their roylties and can brag about volume sold. 3rd parties clearly suffer.
 
Same is true for PS360 though. Wouldn't the best indicator be publisher financials, where they show us how much money they are making from the platforms? I never pay them close attention, but from little I foggily recall, I remember PS3 and 360 together generally making up the lion's share of EA's and Ubisoft's revenues.
 
Really, you need both. Obviously, if you're not making money, you're going to go out of business. But if you make a lot of money off a few customers, then pretty much just hanging out in a profitable niche. That in itself is not a bad thing as long as that's your business plan. But if you're looking only at dollars and not at customers, you may miss a company's decline.
 
But on the scale we're looking at here, the large publishers certainly aren't going ot be making millions selling niche titles! We know they make at best $20 a game sold, so their revenues are going to be directly proportional to units sold, and vice versa. There aren't going to be many cases where a title has made significantly more per copy than the norm. You'll have freaks like MW2 upsetting the balance, but we can account for those; it's not like there's going to be a 10 million selling title we've never heard of to give an unexpected financial boost!
 
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