chrisrt2 said:
Errmm did the trend start? Where did u see that?
NPD January 2005
- Thread starter Teasy
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Errmm did the trend start? Where did u see that?
I know there was a period of maybe 2 months when xbox outsold PS2, but even then, it was by a small margin .. maybe a few thousand, not hundreds of thousand. Are those numbers really correct? I had really expected PS2s to have saturated their market more than a year ago, but they still sell extremely well.
Evil_Cloud
Veteran
eDoshin said:
Dunno, but might be due to a production shift to PSTwo's and due to the release of Halo 2...
I thought those couple of months XB was in front was when PS2's were hard to come by, with the model selling too quick for Sony to keep up, exhausting stocks at the same time there were distribution troubles. I don't think PS2 has (or ever will) lost it's position as the persistent top-seller this gen.
Spidermate
Regular
eDoshin said:
The gaming industry is huge. Never did I once imagine the PS2 sales taping out just yet. I addressed this many times before that the PS2 console had been short on supply since the very begining of the last price cut to $149. I read an artical that was rumored that Sony was holding out before slashing the price of their console in preparation for something new on the market. I wasn't sure what it was, but rumors pointed to a smaller PS2 console. Hell, I figured it was the PSP or maybe even their next console.
Since then, their original PS2 console gradually decreased in stock until most of the local areas were completely dried out. Then the PStwo console was annouced. After the PStwo shipped, the sales numbers were underestimated, as close insideres reported - causing a huge shortage than before for the holidays. Then it was reported that some would be flown in from the airports on express. I'm assuming these numbers were it. So it wasn't that the console stopped selling. It was due to it being so short on supply.
Yeah, the SPtwo is one sweet design. I was tempted a few times to snag one up when GTA:SA came out. Still some older games on PS2 I wanna play like Contra, Rygar, that upcoming Gods of War and Altered Beast. Same with the Cube, local pawn shops were selling them for between $40-50. I just hate to buy a system so late in the generation though. That and my xbox addiction soaks up all my funds at $50 a fix. But I can name atleast 10 games on both systems I'd love to be playing.
Almasy
I don't think Capcom have actually said that they expect 1.8 million sales worldwide for the game. I believe it was some Japanese analyst company who predicted 1.8m worldwide sales of RE4 (before the PS2 announcement as well).
BTW RE4 has sold 320,000 in about 2 and a half weeks of the slowest sales month of the year. A time when a lot of people aren't looking to spend, since its just after Christmas. So I think its sales are far from over at this point. It should sell well in Febuary as well IMO. Currently total sales are at just over 500,000. IMO it may even manage 1.8 million worldwide in the end (its released in Europe March 11th).
I don't think Capcom have actually said that they expect 1.8 million sales worldwide for the game. I believe it was some Japanese analyst company who predicted 1.8m worldwide sales of RE4 (before the PS2 announcement as well).
BTW RE4 has sold 320,000 in about 2 and a half weeks of the slowest sales month of the year. A time when a lot of people aren't looking to spend, since its just after Christmas. So I think its sales are far from over at this point. It should sell well in Febuary as well IMO. Currently total sales are at just over 500,000. IMO it may even manage 1.8 million worldwide in the end (its released in Europe March 11th).
Teasy said:
It was Capcom itself that released expectations of 1.8 million units worldwide, I´m pretty sure of that. Capcom usually overestimates the performance of its future titles, so I doubt true damage will be done to them. Still, this will serve them to not half turn its back on its biggest userbase.
Also, even when seeing the situation in the most positive light possible, as you have, it´s going to be a very complicated feat to actually reach the 1.8 million units.
I respect your opinion, but I disagree with it entirely, I guess we´ll see who was right.
Almasy said:It was Capcom itself that released expectations of 1.8 million units worldwide, I´m pretty sure of that. Capcom usually overestimates the performance of its future titles, so I doubt true damage will be done to them. Still, this will serve them to not half turn its back on its biggest userbase.
Also, even when seeing the situation in the most positive light possible, as you have, it´s going to be a very complicated feat to actually reach the 1.8 million units.
I respect your opinion, but I disagree with it entirely, I guess we´ll see who was right.
When was that prediction made? Furthermore, when was the final release date for RE4 set? It seems to me that if they could have had this out the last 2 or 3 weeks in December instead of January, they would have made a buttload more money on it.
Very good numbers for RE4 despite the idiot stockholder who releaed the info about it already being ported to PS2. Why in the world would someone want to hurt the potential sales of thier own game is beyond me? There is a time and place for everything and the time for an announcement is a couple or three weeks AFTER is comes out on the GCN.
Not surprised by the Mercs numbers, that dang commercial was on every break..never saw the RE4 ad..not once.
Not surprised by the Mercs numbers, that dang commercial was on every break..never saw the RE4 ad..not once.
Almasy
What do you think its final worldwide sales will be?
I think its fairly reasonable to think that RE4's sales aren't finished yet in the U.S. Its no coincidence that January game sales are consistantly less then 40% of game sales at Christmas, people just don't have the spare cash. Also if you look at charts like EBGames RE4 has been stuck firmly in the top 5 of the charts right into Febuary (two weeks in with the current charts). Its been as high as second one week this month (in the first week of Febuary). The key will be where RE4 is when next weeks EB chart is released. If its still in the top 5 during that week then I'd expect at least another 100,000 plus from it in Febuary. Then it just comes down to word of mouth. I agree 1.8 million worldwide is very optimistic, which is why I wouldn't expect it to sell that amount personally. I think to hit 1.8 million worldwide the game would need to sell 1 million in the U.S. IMO it will end up reaching around 700,000 in the U.S.
BTW:
http://cube.ign.com/articles/473/473499p1.html
It was UFJ Tsubasa Securities who predicted 1.8 million worldwide back in January 2004. Also that report was made not only before the PS2 version was announced but also when the games release date was still Christmas 2004.
What do you think its final worldwide sales will be?
I think its fairly reasonable to think that RE4's sales aren't finished yet in the U.S. Its no coincidence that January game sales are consistantly less then 40% of game sales at Christmas, people just don't have the spare cash. Also if you look at charts like EBGames RE4 has been stuck firmly in the top 5 of the charts right into Febuary (two weeks in with the current charts). Its been as high as second one week this month (in the first week of Febuary). The key will be where RE4 is when next weeks EB chart is released. If its still in the top 5 during that week then I'd expect at least another 100,000 plus from it in Febuary. Then it just comes down to word of mouth. I agree 1.8 million worldwide is very optimistic, which is why I wouldn't expect it to sell that amount personally. I think to hit 1.8 million worldwide the game would need to sell 1 million in the U.S. IMO it will end up reaching around 700,000 in the U.S.
BTW:
http://cube.ign.com/articles/473/473499p1.html
It was UFJ Tsubasa Securities who predicted 1.8 million worldwide back in January 2004. Also that report was made not only before the PS2 version was announced but also when the games release date was still Christmas 2004.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Spin.
In any case, the point was that many claimed that RE4 would move Cubes. It didn't.
In any case, the point was that many claimed that RE4 would move Cubes. It didn't.
It's too late to "move" the number of GameCubes that could possibly put the GameCube at no.2 in the US.
You know this.. so STFU Johnny. Go sit and wait patiently for another GameCube thread to taint because this one doesn't need you.
Anywho.. I'm glad to see RE4 at no.1 in any given month. I think it might have a shot at maintaining a top 5 position in February.
It seems to be selling well everywhere I go.
You know this.. so STFU Johnny. Go sit and wait patiently for another GameCube thread to taint because this one doesn't need you.
Anywho.. I'm glad to see RE4 at no.1 in any given month. I think it might have a shot at maintaining a top 5 position in February.
It seems to be selling well everywhere I go.
Teasy said:
My prediction would be around:
Japan: ~250k
We´re already seeing the game dropoff quite a bit just two weeks after its release, and it hasn´t broken the 200k mark yet. Given that most of the times, in Japan the biggest day for a title is in its release day, I don´t think I´ll surpass that figure.
US: ~600k
February sales seem to be doing alright, but without actual data, there´s no way to know how well RE4 is actually selling. This isn´t Christmas either, titles don´t sell as well as well as during their launch period, so I don´t think RE4 will sell as much as during the period I already mentioned. I think the above figure will be close to the actual number.
Europe: ~250k
I actually know much less about Europe than the other two territories, but since GCN is practically dead over there (from what I know), then I don´t think it´ll manage to sell more than my (admitedly taken from my ass) prediction.
Total would be:
250
+
250
+
600
=
1.1 million units sold
That would be my final estimation.
Mmmm....I remember reading about Capcom´s estimates relatively soon, I think they were from the magicbox, I´ll post them if I can find them. Still, I doubt Capcom would have predicted "only" 1 million, especially when looking at the million units both REmake and RE0 did, don´t you think?
jvd said:
You really think so? I doubt it, N64 was much better positioned back then than GCN is right now, plus OoT was the first title on N64 (MM didn´t do as strongly as OoT), so the hype for it was bigger.
I suppose it could be argued that WW was as experimental as MM, so a more "traditional" LOZ would be bigger. I really doubt it, it will be succesfull, but I think it´ll sell to the existant GCN userbase, not draw in a lot of new users.
Almasy
My prediction is a little bit higher:
Japan - 275,000
U.S - 700,000
Europe - 325,000
Total - 1.3 million by the end of the year (1.5m by the end of GC's life).
I think it will do slightly better in Europe then in Japan simply because European tastes are much more similar to the U.S then Japan.
BTW I think its the U.K you're thinking of when you say GC is nearly dead in Europe. Overall in Europe GC is doing ok, not great but ok.
Fair enough, they may have agreed with that prediction back then. I think 1.8 million was a decent estimate back then. When the game was still scheduled for a Christmas 2004 release and before the PS2 version was announced. But once the game slipped to January and the PS2 version was announced I think that estimate had be drop accordingly. 1.3 million in its first year would surely make Capcom happy IMO
My prediction is a little bit higher:
Japan - 275,000
U.S - 700,000
Europe - 325,000
Total - 1.3 million by the end of the year (1.5m by the end of GC's life).
I think it will do slightly better in Europe then in Japan simply because European tastes are much more similar to the U.S then Japan.
BTW I think its the U.K you're thinking of when you say GC is nearly dead in Europe. Overall in Europe GC is doing ok, not great but ok.
Fair enough, they may have agreed with that prediction back then. I think 1.8 million was a decent estimate back then. When the game was still scheduled for a Christmas 2004 release and before the PS2 version was announced. But once the game slipped to January and the PS2 version was announced I think that estimate had be drop accordingly. 1.3 million in its first year would surely make Capcom happy IMO
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