NPD February 2009

[joker454]

This is simply untrue - at least for previous two generations, sales were always higher at sub 199$.
PS1 and PS2 both made majority of their sales below 199$ (including posting their record years in that price range). PS1 actually sold 30Milion at 99$(or below), a price point that PS2 hasn't even hit yet(maybe it never will).
IIRC Xbox1 had its by far the best year in 2004, when it was long priced below 199$ as well.

Reality is that Wii has been breaking PS2 records at much higher price PS2 was when it posted them.

As I understand it, PS1 and PS2 made roughly half their sales under the $199 range. Therefore, once they hit <$199 pricing half their life was done and they headed into their 'downturn'. In other words, they peaked at $199, and got the other half of sales below that. This gen, because of the economy and the "longer than expected generation", it's possible that *more* than half of a consoles sales will occur in the sub $199 range and hence why the sub $199 price points are more important than ever. The rest of your numbers only support my belief that not only are < $199 price points critical, but that they will be more critical this gen than the last one.

Regarding the Wii, as I said before I don't really include it in any of my posts because I think it is it's own market and not comparable to any past or existing machines.

 

[neliz]

T Also, I wonder what effect the shortages had on Wii interest -- the EU aren't supply-constrained, right? How badly is the Wii beating the other two consoles over there, does anyone have definite numbers?

FYI, the Wii is selling 2 to 1 vs. the PS360 (in holland, 100k of 200k total sales.)
After the holiday drought, the supply was constant and they had wii's everywhere. right now, the most scarce items are actually boxed XBL points.

 

[RobertR1]

Numbers THROUGH Jan 09

It's missing some big and small titles but still many more than we're used to:

NPD: January 2009 Life to Date Numbers

without comments

Multiplatform

Assassin’s Creed - 2.3m (360), 1.15m (PS3)
Bioshock - 998k (360), 106k (PS3)
The Bourne Conspiracy - 103k (360), 83k (PS3)
Burnout Paradise - 371k (360) 306k (PS3)
Civilization Revolution - 96k (DS), 254k (360), 149k (PS3)
The Darkness - 284k (360), 133k (PS3)
Dark Sector - 139k (360), 97k (PS3)
Dead Space - 337k (360), 212k (PS3)
Disgaea - 45k (DS), 78k (PSP)
Dynasty Warriors 6 - 113k (360), 103k (PS3), 26k (PS2)
Eternal Sonata - 98k (360), 33k (PS3)
Fallout 3 - 1.14m (360), 452k (PS3)
Fight Night 3 - 1.19M (360) 526k (PS3)
Guitar Hero 3 - 2.37M (360) 830k (PS3) 2.75M (Wii)
Guitar Hero: World Tour - 924k (360) 466k (PS3) 1.39M (Wii)
Kane & Lynch - 300k (360), 197k (PS3)
Karaoke Revolution Presents American Idol Encore 1 - 85k (360) 46k (PS3)
Karaoke Revolution Presents American Idol Encore 2 - 20k (36o) 16k (PS3)
Lego Batman - 207k (360), 128k (PS3), 507k (PS2), 420k (Wii)
Lego Indiana Jones - 241k (360), 142k (PS3), 456k (PS2), 563k (Wii)
Mirror’s Edge - 207k (360), 125k (PS3)
Mortal Kombat vs DC - 592k (360), 512k (PS3)
N+ - 26k (DS), 21k (PSP)
Prince of Persia - 282k (360), 248k (PS3)
Pure - 158k (360) 92k (PS3)
Rock Band 1 - 1.65M (360) 648k (PS3) 1.03M (Wii)
Rock Band 2 - 1.02M (360) 384k (PS3) 353k (Wii)
Saints Row 2 - 480k (360), 188k (PS3)
Saints Row 2 [Collector's Edition only] - 30k (360), 11k (PS3)
Shaun White - 271k (360), 141k (PS3), 537k (Wii)
Silent Hill 5 - 73k (360), 84k (PS3)
Silent Hill Origins: 80k (PS2), 154k (PSP)
Skate - 606k (360) 202k (PS3)
Sonic Unleashed - 113k (360), 69k (PS3), 315k (Wii)
Soul Calibur 4 - 500k (360), 353k (PS3)
Space Invaders Extreme - 58k (DS), 34k (PSP)
Star Wars Force Unleashed - 823k (360) 464k (PS3) 626k (Wii) 175k (DS) 263k (PSP) 352k (PS2)
Tiger Woods 09 - 216k (360), 174k (PS3), 565k (Wii)
Unreal Tournament III - 164k (360) 219k (PS3)
The World Ends With You - 172k

360
Beautiful Katamari - 96k
Banjo: Nuts & Bolts - 154k
Battle Fantasia - 4,704
Blue Dragon - 189k
Halo 3 - 4.66m (regular), 633k (CE), 479k (LE)
Infinite Undiscovery - 110k
Left 4 Dead - 1.28m
Lips - 46k
Lost Odyssey - 348k
Ninja Gaiden II - 517k
Saints Row 1 - 1.02m
Tales of Vesperia - 107k
The Last Remnant 118k
Viva Pinata 2 - 80k

PS3

Folklore - 109k
Genji: Days of the Blade - 96k
Heavenly Sword - 386k
Lair - 185k
Little Big Planet - 670k
Metal Gear Solid 4 - 1.09m
Motorstorm 1 - 427k
Motorstorm 2 - 138k
Ninja Gaiden Sigma - 316k
Rachet & Clank: Tools of Destruction - 427k
Resistance - 1.07m
Resistance 2 - 640k
Time Crisis 4 - 206k
Uncharted - 534k
Valkyria Chronicles - 74k

Wii

Animal Crossing - 654k (game only), 161k (Wiispeak bundle)
Blast Works - 31k
Castle Shikigami 3 - 7,366
Fantastic 4 - 76k
Mario & Sonic @ at the Olympics - 1.99m
No More Heroes - 208k
Ultimate Duck Hunting - 49k
Ultimate Shooting Collection - 1,126
Zack & Wiki - 117k

PS2

Disney Golf - 59k
Final Fantasy X - 2.46m
Final Fantasy XII - 1.85m
Katamari Damacy - 450k
Kingdom Hearts 1 - 3.28m
Kingdom Hearts 2 - 2.3m
Kingdom Hearts: RE:Chain of Memories - 312k
Marvel vs Capcom 2 - 246k
Odin Sphere - 149k
Persona 4 - 123k
SMT: Devil Summoner - 43k
SMT: Digital Devil Saga 1 - 51k
SMT: Digital Devil Saga 2 - 43k
SMT: Nocturne - 60k
Silent Hill 2 - 512k
Silent Hill 3 - 279k
Silent Hill 4 - 209k
We Love Katamari - 230k
Yakuza 1 - 56k
Yakuza 2 - 24k

PSP

Crisis Core: FF7 - 708k
Patapon - 229k
God of War: Chains of Olympus - 640k
Star Ocean: First Departure - 69k
Yggdra Union - 12k

DS

Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney - 71k
Chrono Trigger - 210k
Contra 4 - 115k
Dragon Quest 4 - 76k
Final Fantasy 4 - 275k
Final Fantasy Tactics A2 - 233k
Phoenix Wright Ace Attorney - 117k
Phoenix Wright Ace Attorney: Justice for All - 110k
Phoenix Wright Ace Attorney: Trials and Tribulations - 92k
Professor Layton & the Curious Village - 340k
Trauma Center: Under the Knife - 225k
Trauma Center: Under the Knife 2 - 61k

MyCoach Series
Word - 263k
Spanish - 224k
Japanese - 90k
French - 83k
Weight - 76k
Chinese - 34k
SAT - 25k
Smoking - 3k

 

[RobertR1]

There's some impressive exclusive bombs in that list. Major ouch at Motorstorm 2, Lair, Banjo, VP2, Valkyria Chronicles and Lips.

The MP list is interesting and somewhat all over the place for comparisons and conclusions. Party/music games along with easier games with a youth and colorful presentation sell well on the Wii.

Would be nice get some other numbers such as GTA4, Gears 2, Fable 2, the 2 CoD games and any other big titles I'm forgetting. We can probably do LTD's for WiiFit, Mario Kart Wii and Wii Play just by going back and adding up the NPD top 10 since they've been released

 

[JardeL]

PS3's 276K is not bad for a $400 console ... Consider there's 2 other consoles on the market and both of them are priced half of PS3 ... And keep in mind that there were reports about Xbox 360 Elite discontinuation [ probably because of its high price , low sales ] ...

For Killzone 2 , its a failure if you ask me ... I don't know what was the source of " 1 million pre-orders at Gamestop alone!! " reports but I really thought it would sell a million ... Only two days of sale but 300K is failure imo ...

About SFIV , impressive sales on PS3 and failure on X360 if you consider user base of the consoles ... X360 had no games except SFIV for Feb , PS3 had KZ2 also ... It should be a million for X360 ...

 

[Fafalada]

As I understand it, PS1 and PS2 made roughly half their sales under the $199 range.

PS2 sold about 65% at under 199$.
199-399 price bracket: 50M
129-199 price bracket: 90M (and going).

PS1 sold roughly 87% below 199$:
199-299 price bracket: 13.5M
<199: 88.99M
Source: scei.co.jp

So yes, historical precedent absolutely agrees with you about importance of <199$ price point. But consoles this gen selling larger share of their LTD at that price? Sounds far fetched, even for Wii.

 

[obonicus]

There's some impressive exclusive bombs in that list. Major ouch at Motorstorm 2, Lair, Banjo, VP2, Valkyria Chronicles and Lips.

And none of the non-MS published JRPGs did very well. Sorta surprised NG2 did as well as it did, I thought it had been more of a bomb. Half a million is pretty decent for what it is.

The MP list is interesting and somewhat all over the place for comparisons and conclusions. Party/music games along with easier games with a youth and colorful presentation sell well on the Wii.

The ones that caught my eye are the ones that don't seem to follow install-bases. Like Saint's Row 2 -- I'd guess this is because it's a sequel to a game that never came out on the PS3. If anyone had hopes of ME2 coming out on PS3 as well, without ME1, I'd give up on them right around now. Or Fallout 3 -- it'd have been interesting to see the LTD numbers before DLC was released, to see if that was the only influence. Dynasty Warriors 6 is also a surprise -- was it a simultaneous release? Finally... it seems like the PS3's userbase skews towards fighting games, for some reason. Is it really the controller? Also... it seems like Rock Band is a 360 title, while Guitar Hero behaves as expected (and is monstrous on Wii).

PSP numbers are also really interesting. Most of the titles there are ports, and they've done pretty well (except for Yggdra Union, but I don't know if that game ever did particularly well) for what must've been a relatively-cheap game. Even the big titles did pretty solidly -- a lot better than a ton of PS3 exclusives anyway. And in thew few DS vs PSP examples in the list, the PSP has done disproportionately well.

Checking the gaf thread where these were mentioned (source is apparently here), there's mention that these numbers go only up to Jan 2009, inclusive, as otherwise some numbers don't add up.

Also, thinking a bit about this, I wonder why we got these numbers. The Wii sampling is pretty bad -- I mean, two budget games? I'd really have liked to see Boom Blox, or De Blob or any significant non-Nintendo exclusives. It'd also have been nice to see Madden, as you say, and Call of Duty. Because from this sampling the Wii looks particularly good for multiplatform releases.

 

[thatdude90210]

Those Shaun White snow boarding numbers and Tiger Woods Golf numbers are pretty interesting. It tells me that once people have alternative/better controllers choices, you can't sell a game with traditional controls anymore.

I had imagined that the makers of non-Wii tennis games having a "oh shit" moment when they saw Wii sports... how the hell are they supposed to sell a tennis game that goes "you swing your racket by pressing button A."

Looking at those numbers, Tiger Woods 10 for the Wii has to be the priority, with the 360/PS3 taking a back seat. Especially with the promise of "Motion +" coming.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

PS2 sold about 65% at under 199$.
199-399 price bracket: 50M
129-199 price bracket: 90M (and going).

PS 2 started at 299$ and that's about 50M in 31 months vs. 90M in 70 months.

edit: Hmm maybe that 399 was, because it was more expensive in Europe, but then 399 isn't enough

 

[joker454]

PS2 sold about 65% at under 199$....PS1 sold roughly 87% below 199$:

Fair enough, I stand corrected on that. Didn't PS2 though start at $299?

So yes, historical precedent absolutely agrees with you about importance of <199$ price point. But consoles this gen selling larger share of their LTD at that price? Sounds far fetched, even for Wii.

I don't really agree there, I still think the 360 will sell > 50% of its units in the sub $199 range. Being first to those price points means it gets first crack at locking in those customers, but I guess we'll see.

 

[patsu]

Wii vs HD isn't about "easy" vs "hard." Have you actually played any video games in the last ten years? "Difficult" is not exactly a defining characteristic.

Ha ha, and yet people jumped onto the Wii platform when Nintendo addressed the "difficult to use" controller ? Traditional console games are too hard for the consumers at large.

As for whether I have played video games in the past ten years... that's certainly an interesting question.

 

[eastmen]

well if the 360 will sell 50% of its units at the sub $200 price point then it will sell at least 60m units world wide ? Also which sku do we consider in this ? the core , pro or elite ?

I also don't think you guys are taking into account the growing market year over year. The 360 was able to sell 20m or so units at above $300 price point. The xbox 1 was able to sell 2-3m at that price point.

 

[patsu]

There's some impressive exclusive bombs in that list. Major ouch at Motorstorm 2, Lair, Banjo, VP2, Valkyria Chronicles and Lips.

The numbers are for US market. Valkyria Chronicles did about 77,000 first week in Japan, and is getting its own anime series. It's scheduled for a re-release end of this year in Japan too (as "Bests of PS3" = lower price).

It's a great game. Too bad US gamers could not appreciate the title. I'd explore portable gaming for Valkyria. The format is very suitable for portable play.

 

[DrJay24]

It's a great game. Too bad US gamers could not appreciate the title. I'd explore portable gaming for Valkyria. The format is very suitable for portable play.

American gamers are all about marketing it seems, they leave a lot of good games on the shelf and buy up the equivalent of junk food in mass. It's pack mentality.

 

[RobertR1]

American gamers are all about marketing it seems, they leave a lot of good games on the shelf and buy up the equivalent of junk food in mass. It's pack mentality.

Different regions prefer different genre's. It's been that way for many generations. You don't see American's knocking Japanese for not like FPS/TPS games. Niche games tend to be region sensitive.

 

[joker454]

American gamers are all about marketing it seems, they leave a lot of good games on the shelf and buy up the equivalent of junk food in mass. It's pack mentality.

It's seems impossibly hard for some people to accept that others don't like the games that they do. I tried some of those bomb games like Motorstorm 2 and Valkyria Chronicles and I hated them. It has nothing to do with marketing or appreciation. I tried them and didn't like them, real simple. If you want to assume we're all mindless American automatons for not buying them then that's up to you, but it's a silly generalization.

 

[patsu]

Yeah, more like preferences, taste and bad demo. The game has a rather archaic book-style navigation framework.

The first 6 levels are more like a great introduction to turn-based gaming. Then near end of level 6 and Level 7, the game slapped me around and catapulted me into strategy game heaven.

Don't know how to sell the game to people. The demo as usual s*cks big time when compared to the real game. It's like a chess demo introducing how various chess pieces move, but fails to bring out any strategy, challenge or even story in the game.

 

[neliz]

I think ico is the best indication that quality just doesn't get bought without massive massive media hyper campaigns.

"what? no guns? .. blergh"

 

[Fafalada]

Fair enough, I stand corrected on that. Didn't PS2 though start at $299?

It was 39,999Yen in Japan for 7-8months leading up to US launch, which was close to 399$ at that time.
One thing that these numbers don't show though, is the fact that PS2 was having a lot of shortage problems in first year(in Japan, US and Europe alike), while PS1 was simply just off to a slow start in the same period.

I don't really agree there, I still think the 360 will sell > 50% of its units in the sub $199 range.

I agree that's quite possible - what I meant with doubting "larger" was relative to older consoles(eg. hitting 70% or 80%). Even Wii as the lead system is far from a lock for that.

 

[joker454]

I think ico is the best indication that quality just doesn't get bought without massive massive media hyper campaigns.

"what? no guns? .. blergh"

I liked Ico, but when I played it I though wow this is clever, yet at the same time thought wow this has limited replay value. I could see word of mouth calling it more of a rental and/or borrow from a friend type of game. On the other hand you have a game like Little Big Planet, also unique and clever like Ico but LBP effectively has infinite replay value. LBP seems to be selling well so far.