londonboy said:
Don't know what is so amazingly out-of-this-world surprising that a 500-600 piece of plastic and metal without much interesting software is selling less than something much cheaper and more accessible (Wii) and something cheaper and with a LOT more software (360, PS2, DS and the rest).
This is somewhat true (from demand forecast perspective). But people will see it as something symbolic.
Lately SCE seems to have gotten their act together (especially marcom side). It helped many understand and rationalize their moves better. As long as they stay differentiated, maintain the current open + honest communication channel, and continue to roll out exciting software, they should be fine. ... as in things are still within their control.
However it will likely take at least one quarter to stablize (patch up weakened links and relationships), and at the same time a few more to regain traction given they had so many mis-steps before.
Personally, I look forward to follow-up games, non-games, and services from Sony after their splendid GDC presentation (April !). I am also anxious to meeting unsuspecting European gamers in Resistance (Muahahaha ! to improve my Kill/Death ratio... I have been training !).
Also, how are Sony in trouble? Look how well PS2 and PSP are selling, relatively speaking. Does everyone forget the profits they make out of those? In a sense, it's better for them to sell more of those two to offset their massive losses.
Stringer will probably get some interesting and difficult, "future outlook" type of questions end of this FY. And yes the money from PS2 and PSP helps. The most important, however, is still their brand. Their PR guys will need to defend and extend it (We already see some initial moves, but they will have to do more). The Playstation Network team is probably working very very hard now too.
On a more productive note:
Could PS3 sales actually drop below six figures? (seems unlikely, given March releases)
How is the NPD reporting calendar like ? Is it by calendar month, or strictly by weeks ?
If it's by calendar month, then it's unlikely given new software release, the recently announced strategies and more number of days in each months moving forward.
Should it fall below 100,000... it's probably due to supply issues or some extraordinary events. It will also imply that Sony does not have up to date channel data (weekly or daily).
And, will Sony react with a slash and burn $100 price cut (that is what I hope will happen, just to inject some life into things)
Who knows ? It's very hard to predict Sony. They may do a drop like in Japan... but in my view, it may be too early.
If I was Sony, desperate measures, I would ditch the 60GB version, and try my hand at $399 20GB alone. You have got to get that thing to a reasonable price, pronto.
... which reminds me. 20Gb PS3 were hardly available in US recently and month of Feb. So that sales figure should be mostly 599 boxes.
I doubt that Sony will go that far based on 1 month's data.
In any case, if it's good news... studies have shown that they should release them incrementally. If it's bad news, just do it all at one-shot. So if they were to counter, they would probably do it in successive stages.
IMHO, dropping 60Gb is not really a good move. They can start with bundling and promotion first. They have a lot of things to sell.
