NPD February 2007

NovemberMike said:
The problem isn't people at Sony being scared, it is the third party exclusives going "OH SHIT!". Think how Konami would feel about releasing MGS4 to 4 million consoles, or Square to 6 million...
Click to expand...

I'm not a multinational softaware publisher, but I bet they don't panic and change their minds quite the way forum users do. They're going to do what they're going to do. We've seen GTA4 go with a same-day release. That doesn't exactly translate to the sky falling, it's just good business. Virtua Fighter 5 is coming to 360 later this year. Again... Not exactly killing anybody. We're going to see alot of this, it's just good business. Even if PS3 was selling better than 360 right now, there are still 10 million 360's out there.

Looking at the game forecast right now, PS3's offerings are comparable to 360's. Guesses at what that will look like in the future in the light of low PS3 sales is, maybe fun, but not very accurate.

TheChefO said:
-Chef circa e3 2006 ... after the ps3 price announcement... Got laughed/mocked out of b3d for a week.

My how times change.
Click to expand...

Jacob certainly is like a little ChefO ! :D

Welcome, Jacob. I haven't seen any of your 50 previous posts, so you're new to me.
My name is Jacob, too. :smile:
 
Charted three-month NPD trends

Look what happens when you give me three threads, twenty minutes, a calculator and a text editor.
Code: 
   units        Dec-2006   diff   Jan-2007   diff   Feb-2007
Nintendo DS    1,598,593   -85%    238,869  +103%    485,149
PS2            1,394,007   -79%    299,352  -1.5%    295,102
PS3              490,682   -50%    243,554   -48%    127,321
PSP              953,182   -78%    210,719   -17%    175,651
Wii              604,170   -28%    435,503   -23%    335,324
Xbox 360       1,131,886   -74%    293,774   -22%    228,225

total           6,172,520  -72%  1,721,771  -4.4%  1,646,772


  dollars*      Dec-2006   diff   Jan-2007   diff   Feb-2007
Nintendo DS       207.8M   -85%     31.1M   +103%     63.1M
PS2               181.2M   -79%     38.9M   -1.5%     38.4M
PS3               282.1M   -50%    140.0M    -48%     73.2M
PSP               190.6M   -78%     42.1M    -17%     35.1M
Wii               151.0M   -28%    108.9M    -23%     83.8M
Xbox 360          424.5M   -74%    110.2M    -22%     85.6M

total            1437.2M   -67%    471.2M    -20%    379.2M

*consumer money spent, not cost, not revenue; console package
 only; assumes 130$ for DS, 130$ for PS2, 575$ avg. for PS3,
 200$ avg. for PSP, 250$ for Wii, 375$ avg. for Xbox 360.
I find it especially interesting how [damage control soundbite] even in light of [damage control soundbite]. I certainly wouldn't have expected the [damage control soundbite]! ;)

And sorry for dropping the GBA off the chart, despite it still moving significant numbers. I just couldn't find the December data for the little thing!
 
Readykilowatt said:
Not only has the Wii outsold the Xbox 360 and the PS3, it again outsold the PS2. That is the trend that I am watching very closely.
Click to expand...

If you look even closer, the Wii almost outsold the 360 and PS3, combined. That's just freaky. And it's still supply limited? Good jeebus.

$$ :mrgreen: Go Nintendo Stock Go!!! :mrgreen: $$
 
127k? Ouch, ouch, ouch. I have several somewhat contradictory thoughts in my mind.

1). High price plus mediocre launch lineup = pwned.
2). Needs a pricecut.
3). Oh yeah? If the content isn't compelling yet, then does a pricecut now really help much? Probably not.
4). Still want to soak the early adopters in Euroland. After all, wouldn't want to hurt their feelings that they didn't get to get soaked like the early adopters in NA and Japan! ;)
5). Look, if you want to use PS3 to sell BR. . . .then don't f*ckup PS3 sales by pricing it too high *because* of BR. You went down this road at least in part because you expect to make a mint on BR in the longrun. . .don't chicken out now. He who says A, must say B. Not selling PS3 because it's priced too high because of BR doesn't help Playstation *and* doesn't help BR. Take your medicine now for the long-run goals.
6). Oh yeah? See #1 and #3 again, wiseguy.
 
Crayon said:
Jacob certainly is like a little ChefO ! :D

Welcome, Jacob. I haven't seen any of your 50 previous posts, so you're new to me.
My name is Jacob, too. :smile:
Click to expand...
:)

Yeah, I'm just like him*, except I like to run around like a headless chicken.

* Except I actually wanted Sony to perform well. I'm just insanely annoyed at the fragmented next gen market, and making use of inhuman amounts of sarcasm at the same time.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
TheChefO said:
Really?

PS2 I think will die a quick death by this time next year. The numbers show a clear trend of ps2 gen dying quicker than ps1 gen (software wise). HW purchases at this point could be people replacing old units {raises hand}, buying the system with the aim of shopping 2nd hand software, buying with the aim of "shopping" for free software, buying a 2nd console for the other room/sibling etc.
Click to expand...

PS1 -> PS2 was 5 years. PS2->PS3 is 6 years. The PS3 is one doing badly right now, not the PS2.:p
 
Crayon said:
Pretty low number there!

(Pokes PS3)
"C'mon! DO something!"

Can't say I'm suprised. To alot of users, the machine's functions just don't justify the price. Anyone buying a PS3 right now is either whatching BluRay movies or "paying for potential".

Looking at the PS2 numbers, I'd guess this isn't sending anyone at Sony into a tizzy. If the PS3 ball isn't rolling by the time the PS2 runs out of steam, then things will be looking grim. Right now it looks more like part of the overlapping-lifecycle strategy. At this rate, the PS3 won't pass the 360 by 2010, but it will by 2014, because the 360 will have been gone for years. Meanwhile forums will froth about XBox 3 beating PS4. All the while shrugging off strong PS3 sales....
Click to expand...


I think you neglect that ms cut off the Xbox very abruptly for one specific reason-the hardware business model was a never ending money pit right till the end. Xbox360 suffers from none of that, so they should support it much longer, just like any other "normal" console.

If anything, 360 is shaping up to be the PS2 of this generation (well, if I ignore Wii as a non-competitor to PS3/360) (though I dont think Xbox360 will, or has, done nearly as well as PS2). So in that regard, I'd have to expect it to have a longer life than PS3 if anything. Also, while it's no Xbox, PS3 Hardware does also show a lot of cost problems (even beyond Blu-Ray) so it's actually going to be closer to an Xbox1 position in 2011+ than 360 will I'd wager. Struggling to get the price down to <149.

Basically in 2011 I'd expect the 360 to more closely mimic the PS2 if things continue this way. Low price and shedloads of software.
 
I'm curious what the deal is with all those PS2? I know it's cheap and all that, but the software sales don't seem to support the hardware sales, or is it a matter of the 2nd hand market being very boyant?
 
Geo said:
127k? Ouch, ouch, ouch. I have several somewhat contradictory thoughts in my mind.

1). High price plus mediocre launch lineup = pwned.
2). Needs a pricecut.
3). Oh yeah? If the content isn't compelling yet, then does a pricecut now really help much? Probably not.
4). Still want to soak the early adopters in Euroland. After all, wouldn't want to hurt their feelings that they didn't get to get soaked like the early adopters in NA and Japan! ;)
5). Look, if you want to use PS3 to sell BR. . . .then don't f*ckup PS3 sales by pricing it too high *because* of BR. You went down this road at least in part because you expect to make a mint on BR in the longrun. . .don't chicken out now. He who says A, must say B. Not selling PS3 because it's priced too high because of BR doesn't help Playstation *and* doesn't help BR. Take your medicine now for the long-run goals.
6). Oh yeah? See #1 and #3 again, wiseguy.
Click to expand...

Exactly how many voices are there Geo? ;)

Seriously I see what you're saying and agree. It's a tough situation and I honestly don't know what I would do if I were in their shoes.

Actually that's not true, I would have shown a trimmed down KZ vid (even if it was false) at GDC and released it (leaked it) to the media outlets but keep it believeable enough to spike real enthusiasm from the doubters.

At the same time a Drake vid too.

Neither of these moves cost much and provide good bang for the buck.



side note:

I've noticed an interesting trend that anywhere I go now instead of seeing a few ps3's on the shelf, I see none. I ask the manager/sales staff and they have them, just not on the shelf. A possible reasonable explanation would be perhaps they are a high potential shoplifting item. The counter to this thought though, one must ask why they would not do this for xb360.

My opinion is this is another move that costs Sony little to do but creates the image of a desireable product/product in demand. Good call Sony.
 
Crayon said:
At this rate, the PS3 won't pass the 360 by 2010, but it will by 2014, because the 360 will have been gone for years. Meanwhile forums will froth about XBox 3 beating PS4. All the while shrugging off strong PS3 sales....
Click to expand...

I don't understand why people keep spouting this ridiculous theory.

Why on earth would MS not milk the sub $150 market with the 360 like Sony has done with the PS2?

Of course they will. You don't think they look at PS2 and want their future system to replicate that success?

Xbox was killed for very specific reasons, they were losing money on the HW, but 360 was designed from day1 with cost saving and cost reductions in mind, so it's makes absolutely no sense to think it will follow the fate of xb1.

MS will continue to sell the 360 all the way down to the $79/99 pricepoint for long after 2010.
 
Todd33 said:
If we knew the pre-order numbers we would probably know the Halo 3 effect.
Click to expand...

I doubt it because although you say you did not like the demo a LOT of positive buzz was created from the demo driving per-orders as well. regardless... Crackdown is considered a good, fun game by a majority of people and it had great sales and will sell a million soon.

Also 360 software attach rate is still through the roof (and Wii's are pretty good too considering the small number of titles)
 
nonamer said:
Reminds of me of the "PSP software sales are crap" myth I've mentioned in the other thread. :p
Click to expand...

I've no idea how psp is doing software wise, I've just heard it was doing poorly but no numbers. I did research a few months ago on the ps1 to ps2 transistion software wise and tracked the software sales over the past few years to see how the market was adapting.

I posted it here so you should be able to find it if you're interested.
 
Chef, hope you don't mind that I searched your name for old posts around june-may 06.

Some interesting things in some of these.
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=31009
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=31345
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=30962
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=31022

While people weren't overwhelmingly supportive of the PS3 price, most thought it would sell out for at least six months. Kind of interesting how expectations have changed.

I'm not a multinational softaware publisher, but I bet they don't panic and change their minds quite the way forum users do. They're going to do what they're going to do. We've seen GTA4 go with a same-day release. That doesn't exactly translate to the sky falling, it's just good business. Virtua Fighter 5 is coming to 360 later this year. Again... Not exactly killing anybody. We're going to see alot of this, it's just good business. Even if PS3 was selling better than 360 right now, there are still 10 million 360's out there.
Click to expand...

Of course not, I was exagerrating. I imagine most of these companies are diversified enough that as long as the gaming industry as a whole doesn't flop they are relatively safe. The big thing I see this doing is companies looking very seriously at what they need to do to make their big IPs multi-platform (dropping resolution and physics for the Wii and seeing what they can cut up for the 360).
 
scooby_dooby said:
I don't understand why people keep spouting this ridiculous theory.

Why on earth would MS not milk the sub $150 market with the 360 like Sony has done with the PS2?

Of course they will. You don't think they look at PS2 and want their future system to replicate that success?

Xbox was killed for very specific reasons, they were losing money on the HW, but 360 was designed from day1 with cost saving and cost reductions in mind, so it's makes absolutely no sense to think it will follow the fate of xb1.

MS will continue to sell the 360 all the way down to the $79/99 pricepoint for long after 2010.
Click to expand...

I can't fault your assuming that. I mean, there is no reason why the 360 can't stick around that long, besides the short history of the XBox brand showing otherwise. I appreciate that the XBox killing was a special case, but it's still the only case we have to look at.

Meanwhile, Sony has been visibly working towads the overlapping platform-model. PS1 went strong for 6 years almost by accident. PS2 is going a freaksih 10 years (so far!) by design. And now the PS3 is introduced at a high pricepoint and alot of technology that appears to be overkill.

If you want to speculate that 360 will have a strong sales presence 7 years from now then feel free, but it's just speculation.

Would you agree that the PS3 is likely to last longest in retail?
 
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