NPD December 2007

[DJ12]

I wonder who will get there first, Playstation owners realising that American numbers mean there console of choice is a "failure" or Americans realising that they are just one region not the entire market.

Worldwide sales at worst have the PS3 and 360 roughly equal although I have heard PS3 sales are generally better worldwide.

I know this thread is about American sales, but I find it terribly funny that people connect it with the PS3's demise

The 360 is doing far better in the US than the PS3, true, so it stands to reason the PS3 is beating it in other territories by an equally "comfortable" margin, not just in Japan as the total sales in Japan aren't high enough to cancel out the American sales of 360.

 

[Crossbar]

I remember the stages of grief with Gamecube:

1. Denial - "Nintendo's just waiting to unveil its online plan. It'll bounce back when RE0 hits. The drop to $99 will surely bring back Square! Etc."
2. Anger - "#*@! 3rd parties! Release a #*@! decent game, and maybe it will sell! $#*@ Nintendo! Why did you wait so long to release the Platinum model and kill off the Network Adapter?"
3. Bargaining - "Guys, let's start an online petition to bring MGS3 to Cube!"
4. Depression - "I wish I'd never bought a Gamecube. I wasted so much money on this thing when I should have bought a PS2 all along."
5. Acceptance - "Well, it pretty much bombed, but we had some good times."

Playstation fans will get there eventually.

Sounds like an American phenomena.

 

[betan]

You don't think the competition from other games on the PS3 differs greatly from the competition from other games on the 360 in Fall/Winter 07?

I may think that, but I'm not sure it would and up being the same direction of difference as you might think.
Are you referring to Halo-3 (/other prior games), or poor software sales on PS3?

(in the first two weeks of sales, ME was pegged at about 1M sales world wide. It's probably closer to 2M by now WW.)

Slightly off topic but, at the time that 1M WW number spilled out, 400K for Uncharted was being mentioned.
Do you know the source of any?
I'd guess they were either vgcharts numbers or sold-to-retail, in both case I'd see little value in terms of tie ratios.

Mass Effect sold 1M in the US Uncharted has sold 200k, why are those games being compared?
this thread is about USA sales isn't it?

yes it's and Uncharted apparently sold 200+K in December only.
The reason behind the tie ratio comparison is two folds:
First there is this "big mystery" why those damn PS3 owners didn't by Uncharted.
Second the question whether Uncharted is a failure in terms of meeting expectations.

However I'm not interested in neither question. My point is if those are valid concerns for Uncharted, then they should be as valid for Mass Effect, the AAA game everyone either ignores or praises with excuses, in terms of sales.

 

[Vic]

Yeah, the comparison to the GamaCube situation is flawed on so many level, so I honestly can´t understand that people keep bringing it up.
The price has of the PS3 has for most of the time been more than 50 % above the competition, the feature set is different as well with standard harddrive and hd media among other things.
The GameCube was a different beast compared to its competition, it didn´t even have DVD playback.

Yeah people like comparisons because they are neat and tidy, however they're not always valid. I have to admit, it was only recently that I found out how cheaply the GC was sold for in the US.

Worldwide PS3 sales will go back to being higher than their 360 equivalent, so there's no need for Sony to hit the panic button. It just means SCEA is under pressure to deliver its key titles and generally perform better.

EDIT: Shame about Uncharted though. I have it aswell as AC. At least its selling well in Europe.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

The 40GB supposedly costs 399 to make (some hints of that in a recent article again on drop of costs from 800 to 400). Do you have any better figures? Any reasons to believe that it's way higher than 399?

Common sense is the first. It also has more expensive componets and more complicated design then the 360, and even that is just breaking even at best.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

I wonder who will get there first, Playstation owners realising that American numbers mean there console of choice is a "failure" or Americans realising that they are just one region not the entire market.

The Japanese market is irrelevant for the western 3rd party publishers, as practically none of their games sell there. What they're looking at is EU + US, and in these markets PS3 seems to be at the third place for this generation.

Worldwide sales at worst have the PS3 and 360 roughly equal although I have heard PS3 sales are generally better worldwide.

What you've heard about has originated from VGChartz "estimations". And even those had an advantage of about 50K which can be considered to be within the margin for error.

The 360 is doing far better in the US than the PS3, true, so it stands to reason the PS3 is beating it in other territories by an equally "comfortable" margin, not just in Japan as the total sales in Japan aren't high enough to cancel out the American sales of 360.

People keep forgetting about 360's success in the UK; it may be enough to keep the EU a tie as well.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Worldwide PS3 sales will go back to being higher than their 360 equivalent, so there's no need for Sony to hit the panic button. It just means SCEA is under pressure to deliver its key titles and generally perform better.

Sony needs worldwide sales of X360 + 200K units per month just to catch up with MS in 3 years. Anything less than that and they're stuck in 3rd place.

At this time they may or may not sell about 25-50K more, and we're probably gonna get a price cut for the Xbox in april-may, along with GTA4.

My assessment of the situation is that Sony's just above the level where they should give up competing and concentrate on the next generation...

 

[scooby_dooby]

After seeing KZ2 IN 2005,

You never saw KZ2 in 2005.

You saw a CG movie contracted out by a 3rd party studio. It really should give you no indication of when the game wil lcome, or where it is in development.

I think KZ2 for 2007 was totally unrealistic, if they can get it released by 2008 I'll be impressed.

 

[valioso]

However I'm not interested in neither question. My point is if those are valid concerns for Uncharted, then they should be as valid for Mass Effect, the AAA game everyone either ignores or praises with excuses, in terms of sales.

I guess I just don't see being a million seller as being ignored

 

[scooby_dooby]

The 40GB supposedly costs 399 to make (some hints of that in a recent article again on drop of costs from 800 to 400). Do you have any better figures? Any reasons to believe that it's way higher than 399?

It's funny how one article, that list PS3 as $800 was immediately dismissed as innaccurate by the Sony crowd.

But now it comes in at $400, and we can just accept it as a near fact?

What happened to all the cynicism about these 3rd party costing companies?

 

[scooby_dooby]

Anyways, this argument about UC vs ME is silly. Anyone who doesn't have their head completely in the sand can see ME was a success, if not a runaway one, and Uncharted's numbers are dismal in the US for a title of that calibre.

The install base argument holds no water. It was an exclsuive title, during the holiday season, with little competition. Furthermore, it's customary for a new system to have at least one multi-million seller in it's 2nd holiday season. Sony is still looking for it's breakout software hit, and the clock is ticking.

With that said, PS3 is still competetive. The 360 numbers are fairly weak imo, and point to the fact that they have not been aggressive enough with pricecuts.

Sony may never catch MS in NA, but they can certainly keep themselves within a few million behind if 2008 is a strong year.

 

[DJ12]

Yes vgchartz estimate their numbers, but when "good" numbers became available they quietly revise the figures hoping no one notices.

The gap in Europe has been closing ever since the 40gb was introduced, so the strong sales of 360 in the UK (Which aren't streets ahead of the PS3 like they are in America) aren't good enough to keep the 360 ahead.

And all this without repeat business from people buying new models in the vain hope they get the "fixed" 65nm models.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Yeah, the best thing Sony can hope for is that MS keeps missing its shots. X360 needs a price cut ASAP, it's evident after these relatively low december sales. But it's very likely that they'll stick with the existing SKUs and aim for keeping profitability in each quarter, instead of their long term goals.

Another interesting case could be if Wii's market saturates and sales suddenly start to drop, but it's unlikely to happen this year...

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Yes vgchartz estimate their numbers, but when "good" numbers became available they quietly revise the figures hoping no one notices.

There are no "good" numbers for Europe. We get bits and pieces but it's not enough to make any claims about which console is selling better.

 

[iceberg187]

Yeah, the best thing Sony can hope for is that MS keeps missing its shots. X360 needs a price cut ASAP, it's evident after these relatively low december sales. But it's very likely that they'll stick with the existing SKUs and aim for keeping profitability in each quarter, instead of their long term goals.

Another interesting case could be if Wii's market saturates and sales suddenly start to drop, but it's unlikely to happen this year...

THey were low because Premiums and Elites were out. THey overestimated arcades and Halo consoles.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

There is no factual evidence to support the conclusion that PS3 is even outselling X360 in PAL markets, let alone doing so in any significant way. It's just more wishful thinking.

Nevertheless, I'll still stick to my guns and say that eventually consumers will want a BD equipped console for $299 that play FFXIII and GT5, and this will propel Sony forward in the second half of this generation. If it doesn't.... well there isn't anything else that can.

Sony barely pulled it off in the US this year. Just barely.

 

[Dr. Nick]

Yeah, the best thing Sony can hope for is that MS keeps missing its shots. X360 needs a price cut ASAP, it's evident after these relatively low december sales. But it's very likely that they'll stick with the existing SKUs and aim for keeping profitability in each quarter, instead of their long term goals.

Another interesting case could be if Wii's market saturates and sales suddenly start to drop, but it's unlikely to happen this year...

MS also need an awesome advertising campaign like the one Sony pulled off(It could have been worse for Sony if they failed to properly get the word out.) to remind people that it's still cheaper than their real competition and will play games like GTA4 when released. GTA4 is the next big chance IMO. Whoever has their advertising dollars behind that can change their fortunes in the US. That also would a perfect time for a price cut.

 

[iceberg187]

MS also need an awesome advertising campaign like the one Sony pulled off(It could have been worse for Sony if they failed to properly get the word out.) to remind people that it's still cheaper than their real competition and will play games like GTA4 when released. GTA4 is the next big chance IMO. Whoever has their advertising dollars behind that can change their fortunes in the US. That also would a perfect time for a price cut.

I fully expect for Microsoft to co-op advertise GTA4 better than they did even Halo 3 or Gears. They aren't spending 50 million for them to not shout to the world that they will have DLC coming. To my understanding, it is still on track so the DLC and the game might be done at the same time. The first part of it anyways.

 

[Carl B]

But now it comes in at $400, and we can just accept it as a near fact?

I agree, let's not give more credence to that arbitrary $400 figure than due.

There is no factual evidence to support the conclusion that PS3 is even outselling X360 in PAL markets, let alone doing so in any significant way. It's just more wishful thinking.

On that you're mistaken; the "factual" numbers will be had very shortly when Sony and MS report their quarterly results.

 

[AlNom]

MS also need an awesome advertising campaign like the one Sony pulled off(It could have been worse for Sony if they failed to properly get the word out.) to remind people that it's still cheaper than their real competition and will play games like GTA4 when released.

Peter Moore tried to remind people during the E3 press conference last year.