NPD August 2010

[zed]

see oldish post of mine for more up to date info (for the year 2009 I think)
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1429393&postcount=29

ooks like the UK market is not the massive market that dominates europe like it used to be, and esp if the pound does get devalued we could see france become the largest console market in europe this year!
UK 2.770 billion euros
france 2.420 billion euros

There were a few stories on the net about this months ago, the UK market in 2009 really dropped heavily

 

[Rangers]

But the others didn't? Doubtful.

That's a survey, not hard data. Grain of salt, etc.

The firm, which conducted the 13,000-respondent study in cooperation with TNS as part of the 2009 Today’s Gamers Survey,

 

[zed]

But the others didn't? Doubtful.

You havent been following the financial news that closely I take it? the UK as well as greece/ireland etc were a few of the countries hit hardest by the financial crisis in 2009 (as I said in my original link, there were even rumours at the time that the UK pound was gonna be devalued, though didnt happen)

 

[Rangers]

From neogaf, source MC/gfk

Does not seem UK market fell any more than others in 2009, as I expected.

 

[zed]

If those numbers are true, then it looks like yes all the big markets dropped about the same
But they do show my original assertion that you disagreed with (see 5 posts above)

The UK is only about 15% larger than france

Heres my tracking of amazon US sales this month so far

we could see the wii be in third place for the first time ever with sep NPD

 

[Gerry]

I
The UK is only about 15% larger than france

Or alternatively, if you use the actual numbers, you'll find it's more than 27% larger.

 

[Rangers]

How do you do the Amazon tracking? What weight do you give to sales positions?

 

[Scott_Arm]

I thought it had been shown over and over again that Amazon did not mirror the overall market. NPD is the only useful data set for the USA.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I thought it had been shown over and over again that Amazon did not mirror the overall market. NPD is the only useful data set for the USA.

Pretty much. Does Amazon even rank items by actual sales or just by item interest? In any event I'd consider amazon tracking roughly equivalent to the use of a ouija board.

 

[zed]

Or alternatively, if you use the actual numbers, you'll find it's more than 27% larger.

well thats about 15% j/k my bad with my second quote of myself

actually the numbers (from where that quotation is refering to), in my original post show UK is 14.5% larger than france
the latest numbers show 27%
rangers numbers from his harddisk say UK is 64.6% larger than france.

WRT amazon, heres my predictions from last month
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1470165&postcount=2140

FWIW my calcs from amazon will have xbox360 ~400k, wii ~230k, ps3 ~220k (though still perfecting my algorithm)

NPD numbers
xb360 356700 ~12.1% off
wii 244300 ~5.8% off
ps3 226000 ~2.7% off

I dont know but that seems much better than consulting a ouija board

The xbox360 is the hardest to judge, I think since (in the time Ive been measuring it) theyve had the largest number of different models (thus purchases are gonna be split between different choices, making the chance a model will fall out of the top100 greater)

Xbox 360 250GB Elite Console
Xbox 360 Arcade Spring 2010 Bundle
Xbox 360 4GB Console with Kinect
Xbox 360 250GB Halo Reach Console Bundle
Xbox 360 4GB Console
Final Fantasy XIII: Limited Edition Bundle
Xbox 360 250GB Console with Kinect

PlayStation 3 120 GB
PS3 250 GB Bundle (with LittleBigPlanet and HDMI Cable)
PlayStation 3 250 GB
PlayStation 3 160 GB
PlayStation 3 320GB System with PlayStation Move Bundle

Wii with Wii Sports Resort – Black
Wii
Wii with Wii Sports Resort - White

Sure amazon is not gonna give a 100% accurate figure (esp when they have deals on a specific product/s) but will at least give ballpark numbers.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Sure, post your predictions before NPD actually releases the numbers and I'd be somewhat likely to believe you.

So feel free to throw up your amazon derived Sept NPD numbers in the first week of october.

 

[zed]

Sure, post your predictions before NPD actually releases the numbers and I'd be somewhat likely to believe you.

but I did!

check the time stamp of my post vs the first NPD post

my post with NPD predictions 10-Sep-2010, 06:42
first NPD post 10-Sep-2010, 11:50

So theres a few possibilities
A/ I was luckyish
B/ theres some correlation with the amazon numbers
C/ I've hacked beyond3d (to change the posts timestamps)
D/ I was able to obtain NPD numbers earlier than other ppl

I dont see why its so hard to believe theres at least some correlation between amazon's rankings (if the object is for sale + not heavily discounted) + what NPD will show.
Next you'll be saying halo reach wont be the top selling title in September since amazon has had it at #1 for the last month

 

[AlphaWolf]

but I did!

check the time stamp of my post vs the first NPD post

my post with NPD predictions 10-Sep-2010, 06:42
first NPD post 10-Sep-2010, 11:50

So theres a few possibilities
A/ I was luckyish
B/ theres some correlation with the amazon numbers
C/ I've hacked beyond3d (to change the posts timestamps)
D/ I was able to obtain NPD numbers earlier than other ppl

E/ NPD released the numbers on September 9th.

I dont see why its so hard to believe theres at least some correlation between amazon's rankings (if the object is for sale + not heavily discounted) + what NPD will show.
Next you'll be saying halo reach wont be the top selling title in September since amazon has had it at #1 for the last month

So you can use amazon rankings to tell you things you already knew? Pretty sure I can do that with a Ouija board as well.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

E/ NPD released the numbers on September 9th.

He lives in New Zealand so the time zones are quite different. Still I would like to hear his predictions sooner as well, like the first or second day of each month. If he always waits until just before the NPD numbers become public, he has had access to much more data than just the Amazon tracking, like the quesses from analysts and vgchartz. Lot of that is available sooner as well.

It would be nice to know more about Zed's algorithm to see exactly where the quess comes from. I don't think he want's to share it though I still think it's fun to see him go at it though. If he can outquess vgchartz etc. then it's pretty good, but if he uses Amazon + every other data point out there + time and effort to munch out a quess just few hours before the official NPD numbers come out, then it's not really that impressive to come within 5-10 %.

 

[Rangers]

The xbox360 is the hardest to judge, I think since (in the time Ive been measuring it) theyve had the largest number of different models (thus purchases are gonna be split between different choices, making the chance a model will fall out of the top100 greater)

You can see what sales ranking of any item is by going to it's page, beyond the top 100.

For example, if the 360 4 GB was not in the top 100, you could simply go to it's page and see it was #106 or whatever.

And you can sort by different things, such as >360 hardware (which would give you a ranking of just 360 hardware meaning controllers, consoles, etc)>consoles (which would further refine it to just 360 console SKU's only) to further help keep track of things.

 

[zed]

So you can use amazon rankings to tell you things you already knew? Pretty sure I can do that with a Ouija board as well.

Yes as Dr Evil pointed out Im in NZ, which due to it being near to the dateline
(17-20hours ahead of the US) means its often the next day.
check both posts here, mine was posted 5hrs before the NPD one (it will most likely say they were posted on the 9th if youre in the US)

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1470165&postcount=2140
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1470247&postcount=1

btw Because of this NZ is a good spot to be, for simultaneous worldwide launches. As you get to watch the films, or buy the games before anyone else in the world. (If you're into that sort of thing)

For example, if the 360 4 GB was not in the top 100, you could simply go to it's page and see it was #106 or whatever.

OK thanks I see it now, though there system is not foolproof
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/videogames/14112971/ref=pd_ts_vg_nav
wheres "Xbox 360 250GB Halo Reach Console Bundle"

@Dr Evil fair enuf, Ill post at the end of the month (the ratios should be about right, but Im not too confident on the numbers, for one thing sometimes NPD uses a 4 or 5 week).
Anyone know the exact methodology behind this?
Im guessing If Sunday falls during the month, then the previous 6 days (+that) are counted but thats just a guess.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I don't think there's anything fancy about which months are 4 or 5 week. I believe every 3rd month is a 5 week. So it would be march, june, sept and dec. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

<edit> although I guess there's a some extra days, I'm not sure how they account for those, so perhaps there's more to it.

 

[Rolf N]

September will most definitely be a 5-week period for NPD, and it was one last year. Meaning that if you rely on ratios such as month-to-month transitions derived from past years, you won't even have to compensate. You can also check the release statements, they include the covered period every month (unless some doofus strips that info away when C&Ping).

 

[mrcorbo]

I dont see why its so hard to believe theres at least some correlation between amazon's rankings (if the object is for sale + not heavily discounted) + what NPD will show.

That right there would be the main issue. Amazon regularly does sales and promotions, especially for popular titles. All it would take is for Amazon to be doing a particularly attractive promotion, another retailer doing one or worst of all both doing attractive promotions on different titles to badly skew the sales rankings vs the overall market.

It's a useful data point, but I'd be cautious about giving it too much weight.

 

[zed]

wii 180k
xbox360 430k
ps3 200k

though you may want to multiple by 1.25 (for 5 weeks)
The wii seems to be picking up again

edit - vgchartz has wii ~50k over ps3