NPD August 2010

NPD lists the last year (sept 09 through august 10) as about 5.1 million 360 sales and about 4.4 million ps3 sales. Shipped numbers can be all over the grid depending on what they are doing regarding new sku's. They will even sometimes just flood the market to reach certain goals for a quarterly report or something. Without a lot of context the amount shipped in a period tells you very little.

 

I honestly have NO idea. It's common courtesy to link to sources when basing arguments on figures other people ask to see for themselves.

 

How about you choose a region that would add up to more than the statistical error in GB or france?

Outside of GB and the US the PS3 has done better than the 360 for the most part, but you're piecing together small pieces of data and trying to extrapolate them to worldwide numbers. It's about as useful as using vgchartz.

 

Uhh, you're still using US attach rate to decide a worldwide X360 software total, and thats just false, period.

Link? You're just going from one inaccurate statement as fact to another now. We dont have WW hardware sales either. And we definitely dont know WW X360 software sales to declare that US accounts for 1/2.

Why do you keep using the USA only attach rate for WW X360 software sales?

Also, theres games on demand on X360...I dont think MS figures that in to attach rate since they usually use straight NPD figures.

And the ship numbers can be nefarious, I already showed how Sony somehow shipped 200,000 more PS3's last quarter despite selling through much much less PS3 hardware (~500,000 less IIRC, probably around 900k PS3 USA+Jp, against shipped of 2.4m doesnt add up) (in the USA and Japan NPD+Media Create) than the prior quarter. Those numbers are going to even out in the future, or else something has to give...looking at past shipment numbers, wild fluctuations are pretty common.

Another thing, you say yourself software sales are less in Europe. Every time Sony/MS announce Europe hardware sell figures in some offbeat interview, they're pretty similar (maybe ~15 mil each last I noticed?). MS has a pretty big edge in USA which could cancel out Sony's big edge in Japan (which sell less software, how many million PS3 sellers even are there in Japan? All I know is FF13, whereas a million is practically normal in the US). So just overall, it seems possible to be wrong on that basis.

 

I believe in the previous quarter people made the calculation that while sell-in was greater for the PS3 (as reported in the financials) that using the tie numbers it was calculated that the 360 sold-through more. I want to say this was done in the SNE financials thread at NeoGAF but I would have to look.

 

We'll see when 360 sales stop falling by large amounts, until then..

 

360 sales are falling? Which orifice did you pull this terrible information from?

 

He's referring to the future. The one none of us know and are generally 0:100 in predicting.

 

I'm going to make a bold leap and say that the xbox 360 will continue to outsell the ps3 monthly (except for an odd month here or there that sony might put out a new model ) till the xbox 360 is repelaced. This is for NA only. I think the 360 just has the momentum here and sony wont be able to turn the tide.

 

Code:

Xbox 360 August Madden Sales (NPD)
-----------------------------------
Madden  08   August 2007   896,600     
Madden 09   August 2008   1,000,000    +11.5%
Madden 10   August 2009   928,000     -07.2%
Madden 11    August 2010   920,800     -00.8%

Madden sales on the Xbox have been flat for a while. I copied this from my post at Ars where the same point was deposited (Xbox is only being replaced, not new consumers; proof? No growth in Madden sales). There are a lot of reason Madden has stalled on the 360, lack of growth in the consumer base isn't the fault.

 

Being a pessimist, I suspect EA will actually sell more copies of Madden this year all told, thereby establishing the online pass thing as a valid strategy. Cue 'online pass' not being news anymore by 2012.

 

No, but if that 12 months include the events I descriped in my last post, then the shipped numbers give very inaccurate picture of the real sold to user numbers. If Sony let the channel go dry just before those 12 months start counting and MS last quarter was very dry for similar reasons, then you need to include more quarters to get a proper accurate picture.

Yeah Finland is probably Sonys strongest country per capita, or very close anyways. Wii is not big here.

 

I think he meant that they dropped from 440k to 356k the last two months.

He's not strictly accurate, and a increase in September is a given because of Reach, but it's a somewhat reasonable point.

 

June to august the 360 sales fell by ~20%
June to august the Wii sales fell by ~42%

Nope still a stupid point.

 

Yes like I said it will favor the console that sells higher in the US (cause like I said the US console owners tend to buy more software per person than the europeans), do you dispute this?
i.e. the actual numbers will be lower, but Im such a nice guy I'll give the xbox360 a few million more software sales

do u seriously want a link, surely its obvious.
we have the worldwide shipment numbers from MS ~41.7million at the last quarter thus the number of consoles sold will be less than this, prolly about 40million. now we can look at NPD numbers at this time and the xbox360 was sitting at just over 20million. Do you dispute any of this?

now heres where it gets tricky, it requires a little bit of maths

20/40 = 0.5 == roughly a half of xbox360 sales are in the US.
we can do this with the ps3 also, and we get ~ 1/3

Do you dispute any of this?

 

PS3 and 360 have sold fairly similar amounts of consoles to date in the EU. Do you dispute this? We can work it out by removing the Japanese sales from the equation.

Japanese software sales are by far the least, and USA (where 360 is strongest) the most, any dispute? Europe is 2nd. Any dispute? Ps3 and 360 are tied or nearly so in EU in ltd hardware sales.

Ps3's strongest advantage (Japan) sells the least software. It is the reverse for 360, whos strongest market the usa sells the most software.
So it's quite easy to see that, PS3 cannot sell more SW WW than 360

Also, you are ignoring Games on Demand.

And heck if you wanted to go that route, 360 seems to sell a lot of software on DL. Trials HD just announced 1 million, and all indications are Dead Rising Case Zero was another recent smash. Since the PS3's strongest market Japan is very weak in download sales, this could be another aspect to consider.

Also the gist of your argument seems to be "Sony's WW attach rate is higher than MS's USA attach rate". Again, how can this be? And if so, why does Sony not even trumpet their USA attach rate, which by your reasoning MUST be MUCH lower than their WW attach rate? Which also makes no sense if you say USA sells the most software? Your thesis requires PS3's EU+Japan attach rate=>>>>PS3's usa attach rate( and by a LOT), which stretches credibility.

 

What are you regressing? What is your explanatory variable(s)?

Or are you just trying to make nice curves?

 

You don't really need any explanatory variables for a regression, but in that case a more appropriate label for those graphs might be "linear extrapolation" (even though no future data is presented, from the looks of them it seems assumed).

 

Rangers I assume you did not dispute anything I said, thanks for agreeing

yes I do.
round the middle of last year both sony/MS were saying they had similar numbers, but in the year since then the ps3 has been outselling the xbox360 in europe.
the xbox360 really only does well in the UK (true its the largest market in the EU but still its only ~15% more than france)

No Im saying over the last year the ps3 has sold more software than the xbox360 (Its also sold more consoles)
i.e. I was giving backup to this persons post
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1470633&postcount=40

well they are straight lines
theres no extrapolation, just using the data thats there
the top graph, just shows how marketshare per month changes over the years, eg xbox360 has been pretty much 30% so far, the wii started ~54% + now sits about ~45% the ps3 started at a weak ~17% + has in recent months has climbed up to ~27%

The bottom graph is the same, though all values are sloping down, the reason being is all consoles were supply constrained at the start

 

I have these stats on my hard drive. I dont have a link but I think it was posted on GAF at some point. These are gaming market of course.