NPD August 2010

There is no part of me that believes that the Wii would only sell-through 180k units.

 

Yep I read somewhere that it's a 5 week month (August 29 - October 2nd).

 

OK thanks then their week runs from sunday->saturday
if its 5 weeks then the numbers are
wii 225k
xb 537k
ps3 250k

(though I have a feeling like last time the xbox numbers are too high again, esp since the xbox has been losing steam at the end of the month, perhaps ~480k)

last year
xbox 352600
ps3 491800
wii 462800

edit- actually I better wait until 3rd oct before I do the predictive numbers since the xbox has dropped back quite a bit in the last week
// updated numbers after 2oct
wii 221k
xb360 495k
ps3 252k

 

I still can't grasp your Wii number, you actually believe it is going to drop in sales (August to September) even with an extra week...no.

 

Right now I wouldn't be surprised much either way. It's dropped far more rapidly the past few months than I was expecting it would at the beginning of this year. I was expecting a rather slow drop until it was at similar levels to PS3/X360 around Q1 or Q2 of 2011 with a spike for Holiday 2010, but the past few months it's dropped rather precipitously.

I expect it to shoot way up again for the Holiday season, but for September it could still go either way.

Regards,
SB

 

What logical basis would you have for saying you wouldn't be surprised either way...seriously? You are saying that you believe the Wii's weekly average could drop so significantly that even with September being a five week NPD month versus August being a four week NPD that the Wii would still sell fewer total units in the five week month than it did in the four. There are a lot of pejoratives I could use for that line of thinking but I'll let the imaginations run wild.

 

why not?
It has had larger drops in the past, eg this year
mar 557500
apr 277200
it dropped ~50%

yet you say dropping ~25% is surprising. Please Explain that

last months wii's NPD sales was is worst ever!!!
the month before that its 3rd worse ever, if you look at my charts earlier in the thread you will see the wii's sales figures are going one general direction i.e. downwards.
It just had its second lowest weekly sales figures in japan ever!!
Perhaps it will sell more than the ps3 (like vgcharts has it), my system aint perfect but I think does give a rough idea, we'll find out next week

 

My explanation is the historical precedent for hardware from March to April and August to September.

Yes, the Wii dropped 50% conveniently leaving out the fact that it still outsold the competing home consoles which also dropped (as consoles have historically) March to April. The Wii has moved almost 3M units YTD (which is still more than the competing home consoles) how far off from last years numbers are they for the NPD territory with this general downward direction?

EDIT: I realized I haven't thrown an arbitrary number out there but I'll say that I believe your number to be off by 80k+

 

I fully believe that Wii will continue to fall off past numbers, but september09 was 462.8k, august 09 was 277.4k. 300-350k would still be a terrible september for the wii.

 

whats the wii fit / sports title this year ?

 

I didn't say I was expecting it to be lower, eh? Only that I wouldn't be surprised.

So far this year, there's been a few months where the Wii didn't perform as I expected and I was genuinely surprised by it's lackluster performance.

So, basically after 7 months of NPD for 2010, I'm saying that I'm not going to be surprised if Wii performs far below my personal expectations which themselves have fallen quite a bit as the year has gone on.

Regards,
SB

 

I don't dispute that at all, my issue is with the numbers presented, the "surprise" factor and then the % decline retort. The wii is off its 2009 numbers by 500K+ as of the last US NPD. Personally, I think 350k for the Wii is good given the 2010 decline.

 

Nav,
You shouldn't have bought Nintendo stock.

 

LOL, as "invested" as people are in particular systems I wish they WOULD buy some shares Could be worse though I could have had all my money in Midway stock but I bailed on company stock a LONG time before the bankruptcy. I can't be the ONLY Nintendo shareholder on this board...oh wait, B3D...lol, maybe I am (where is Natoma).

 

don't worry when the 3ds hits the market, the share price is bound to explode. the Wii is old news. With 4 years on the market and one $50 dollars price drop plus no killer software as of late, a decline should be expected.

 

I think the decline will most likely be due to competition offering now motion controls as well.

The consumer will most likely make direct comparisons between Wii and PS3/360 and weight all the benefits and costs.

Currently I wouldnt be surprised if the consumers have second thoughts about purchasing Wii now that the PS3 offers the same concept with more quality games, better performance and more features.

The major benefit that Wii has against the PS3 now are price and a bigger line up of motion controlled games.

Things are going to get even more interesting once MS also releases Kinect and Kinect bundles which has huge marketing potential. The 360 slim has a competitive price, and I think MS designed it intentionally to look the way it does. It looks like a PS3Slim/Wii/360 hybrid. The consumer will surely start making connections and comparisons and I doubt Wii will continue to sell very high.

 

We know I'm one of Kinects major proponents but I have complained about what games fall in the ESRB E-T on the 360 and PS3 (when we had one) for some time. If MSFT and publishers can get games that fall into those ranges that excite all consumers then, yes, the Wii demographic MIGHT take a hit. Until such time though I don't see a dramatic drop-off (this gets tricky since the Wii drop-off is highlighted in percentages versus units sold-through as can be seen in this very thread). ESRB 'E-E10' is the dominant set of ratings on the Wii whereas you have sports as seemingly the only E-class on the other consoles. Now I'm not one to go strictly by ESRB ratings since I don't view all M- rated or T- rated games the same but there are people who do.

I also believe that as far as the US goes that people give the PS3 name too much credit, that the people buying the Wii currently actually care that there is a 360 and/or PS3. When I walk into general merchandise stores the Wii sections dwarf the PS3 and 360 sections.

 

I see no proof of competition and don't even see heavy marketing for either tech especially not enough to drive down Wii's sales prior to release. I also don't consider that majority of consumers for wii consoles are 360 and PS3 owners, where the price of the new motion tech is $100-$150 versus $199 and not $199 versus $300-400 for non 360/PS3 owners. Seems to me that both Sony's and MS's targetted consumers for their new tech is initially their existing userbase.

Nintendo does pratically nothing to drive sales during the off holiday season but release new software from time to time. But there has beenlittle from Nintendo to drive sales this year with the majority of Nintendo's marketing going towards hyping the 3ds release. How well is a console is suppose to sell after 4 years of selling within $50 of its launch price and no major releases during this off season. Nintendo seems to have turn the Wii into a mostly holiday item.

 

Well to be fair, all of the consoles will move millions over the holiday season so in that sense there is some motion gaming price competition.

EDIT: Just read the news about NPD no longer releasing numbers to the public...

 

Shoulda stayed with your first instinct, it was the closest. I wonder how your Wii number will hold up? Probably won't find out from Nintendo if you're right.