Now the war is over wishfull thinkers please explain how blu will ever replace DVD.

[quest55720]

I really want to hear the reason you think the average joe is ever going to go to blu now they have won. I want to hear why you think they average person is going to replace 3+ dvd players in the house the car and other portable units.

DVD did not win because of the PQ/SQ. That is all HDM media has going for it. DVD won because it was a revolution. No rewind, small form factor, did not degrade every viewing, chapter skip and special features are what won the public over.

Also people only had to replace the 1 or 2 vcrs they had. Most people pre dvd watched movies in the living room. They added a DVD player to the living room TV plain and simple. Then something happened DVD players got insanely cheap. People started putting them in the bedroom, kids rooms, play areas kitchen ect. Then another revolution happened portable units got sub 100 dollars cars/mini vans started to come equipped with DVD players. The DVD player in the minivan is like a god send to many a parent.

Seriously you expect people to replace all those players with blu units? The issue is a blu disc plays in a blu player. It does not play in the many DVD players people have. Why would the average person buy a 30 dollar movie that won't play in the car, bedroom or where ever else they watch movies these days? People are buying less 14.99 dollar DVDs you really expect them to buy a 29.99 dollar movie and the DVD version? If the BDA studios wanted to include the DVD version that would change my stance. If the BDA came up with a real combo disk that worked well that would change my stance. As of right now only a wishfull thinker would have the notion the average person would ever go to blu. These are the same people who are to cheap to get HD cable for the new HD tv. They still run the sound through the TV speakers or at best they have a cheap HTiaB for the sound.

While we are on the subject of HD tvs. People are buying them for the form factor not the PQ. They like the 3 inch think TV vs the monstrous CRTs of the past. Most of the public thinks anything played through that new tv is HD materal. That the tv magically turns anything in to real HD. So they see no reason to ever get go OTA HD cable.

Before I hear about the analog cut off forcing people to get HD tvs. 3 types of people have OTA these days and that is a small number. The elderly who don't care for cable. The poor who cant afford cable. The HDM enthusist like me who gets free HD programing OTA. None of these people are going to be affected by the cut off. They are not going to run out and get a blu player because of it. Hell most will just get a cheap converter box or get cable. I have friends with HD tvs and won't do an antena because they are an eye sore to them.


I would like to hear any reasonable argument that any HDM blu or downloadable will not be the next laser disc a pure enthusist format.

The best I ever see is some sort of combo disc and there is a coexistance with dvd.

 

[one]

The area with the fastest BD adoption will be the PC.

Then, when a J6P goes to Walmart and says "I want to buy a good DVD player that won't break in a few years", a clerk will recommend a BD player like recommending DVD upscaling function or something. The important thing is this retailer gets more profit by selling a BD player than selling a dirt-cheap DVD player both of which occupy the same shelf space.

The price of DVD players won't get cheaper but the price of BD players will keep getting cheaper just like DVD did.

Of course it doesn't happen overnight, it will take at least 3-5 years. DVD will still be actively used in developing countries, but others in the whole industry will move to a more lucrative business.

 

[AlphaWolf]

When the price is right. ie when standalones are available $50 or less, and a large library of media can be found in the bargain bin for less than $10.

If they never achieve that, then it never really will displace DVD.

 

[Arun]

If I look at the economics of a PC-only Bluray player, I'm at a loss as to why PC players shouldn't be available at ~$40 and standalone players at ~$70 by 2012. The diodes will be ridiculously cheap by then, and the cost difference for chips compared to DVDs will pretty much be zero. And R&D amortization will be effectively done by then, too...

No offense intended, but I think this is just a classic example of not having enough foresight to see that you're extrapolating the current situation as it was going to last forever. In the electronics and semiconductor industries, that's a ridiculously wrong thing to do.

 

[quest55720]

If I look at the economics of a PC-only Bluray player, I'm at a loss as to why PC players shouldn't be available at ~$40 and standalone players at ~$70 by 2012. The diodes will be ridiculously cheap by then, and the cost difference for chips compared to DVDs will pretty much be zero. And R&D amortization will be effectively done by then, too...

No offense intended, but I think this is just a classic example of not having enough foresight to see that you're extrapolating the current situation as it was going to last forever. In the electronics and semiconductor industries, that's a ridiculously wrong thing to do.

No many here just over value PQ/SQ to the average person. Basically every shift in medium happened because of other things besides PQ and SQ. If blu or downloadable can offer something besides PQ/SQ then maybe.

Lets say you are right in 2012 players are at 70 dollars. The problem is by then the upscaler part will be on par with the reon of today. They will put in a blu movie and be impressed. They will then put in a DVD and scratch their head. It won't be enough to convince them to replace the other 2 DVD players in the house for 150 more. Then replacing the 2 or 3 portable units they will have by then for another what 300-400 dollars? Portable units are a standard black friday item and almost standard equipment in the mini van. I just don't see people spending the 500 dollars to transition over for PQ/SQ in 2012.

People really need to look at the history of mass adoption of new mediums. PQ/SQ are always seconday or not at all. It is almost always things like form factor or plain old convience.

 

[Arun]

Not everyone 'upgrades' explicitly. Human relationships and housing change, stuff gets broken, etc. - I don't think any of us are expecting this to be an overnight transition. And as noted by Wavey in another thread, it's not even in the studios' interests to make it an overnight transition either: they do want to keep a premium for some time here.

Plus, not everyone has fifty DVD players like you say they do. Every family is different, and that kind of trend also depends on the country. I'm sure that overall, the poorer parts of the population isn't going to switch away from DVD for quite some time - but if you don't think the vast majority will switch to HD within much less than a decade (let's say by 2015), then I think you're horribly mistaken here. And that's pessimistic, not optimistic.

 

[SPM]

BD will definitely replace DVD as the predominant movie format at some time - probably when the price drops below about $100-150, and this will happen. HDTV ownership will drive it rather than price, because there is no point having it without an HDTV, and $100-150 is not much compared with the cost of an HDTV. However, just as DVD players can play CDs now, CD and DVD playing capability will be around for ever. I think the change will happen within 5 years (at least for movie players).

I think the studios should consider a flip-over DVD/BD disk like the DVD/HD-DVD dual format, so that all disks would play on all machines. This isn't exactly rocket science since you would just need to glue a DVD to a BD disk, so I don't see any technical reason not to.

I think with something like this so long as media costs are not too high compared with content royalties, DVD users might be tempted to buy these disks for the sake of being able to watch their collections at higher resolution in future even if they don't have a BD player at the moment.

 

[quest55720]

You wanna know how much PQ/SQ mean to people? Most won't even put up an antena to get free HD with that new TV. A 10-40 dollar antena and free programming does not matter. Because it is an eye sore to most or inconveint to put one up. If the average person won't do an antena I just don't see them spending 100s and premium on discs to change over. OTA is the second highest quality of HD most people can get and it is absolutely free.

I think the next medium has a better chance personally. I think a much higher capasity disc were you could put a whole HD season of a TV show on 1 disc. I think that would be much more appealing to people. I also think next medium will devote 2 layers to DVD play back so that the movie will be compatible with peoples DVD players. I think both formats were rushed to the market with out much thought. Both of them should of included some sort of backwards compatibility that costed no extra and had no issues. A mulit layered disc would of been preferable but I would of settled for a flipper. I would hope around 2013 a new contender will emerge and will take over for DVD.

 

[Arun]

I think a much higher capasity disc were you could put a whole HD season of a TV show on 1 disc.

Uhm... welcome to last year: http://hitech-it.blogspot.com/2007/10/hitachi-develops-100gb-blu-ray-disc.html

That will very very likely be present in the mass market before 2013, and it'll be usable on mainstream players. So the technology is there today - no need for your new fancy format that only matters for a billionth of the audience...

As for the 'next' format: I think most of the industry right now thinks there won't be one. By the time that'd make sense, we'll see fiber used for the last mile of internet connectivity, giving millions of people access to 100Mbps+ internet. This is already being sold in small parts of France for, wait for it, 30 euros/month.

 

[quest55720]

Uhm... welcome to last year: http://hitech-it.blogspot.com/2007/10/hitachi-develops-100gb-blu-ray-disc.html

That will very very likely be present in the mass market before 2013, and it'll be usable on mainstream players. So the technology is there today - no need for your new fancy format that only matters for a billionth of the audience...

As for the 'next' format: I think most of the industry right now thinks there won't be one. By the time that'd make sense, we'll see fiber used for the last mile of internet connectivity, giving millions of people access to 100Mbps+ internet. This is already being sold in small parts of France for, wait for it, 30 euros/month.

That is great if it works better use would be layers 1 and 2 for DVD 3 and 4 for blu. If they could pull that off they would have a chance.

 

[Arun]

And that would get rid of point completely. For the love of god, when will you stop posting before thinking for even half a billionth of a second? We just debunked all your 'HD is doomed to fail' arguement and then now you're back to square one, reusing the same conclusion but without any of the points left. Sigh...

 

[quest55720]

And that would get rid of point completely. For the love of god, when will you stop posting before thinking for even half a billionth of a second? We just debunked all your 'HD is doomed to fail' arguement and then now you're back to square one, reusing the same conclusion but without any of the points left. Sigh...

You have not debunked anything at all. I said if they had a combo disc I would change my stance.

Find me a format shift that was due soley to PQ/SQ because there is not any. Format shifts are because of tangable like convience or form factor.

If PQ really mattered to the average person they would add a 40 dollar antena to that new HD-tv. They would get free hd-programming that is only second to blu/hd-dvd in quality. They don't because they think the antena is an eye sore. It is to inconvient to put up an antena. Or the cable box will not intragrate the OTA channels meaning they have to use video select button to watch OTA channels to much of an inconvience.

How many people still purchase pan and scam because of the "black bars". Or the zoom the hell out of widescreen movies to get a full screen picture destroying the PQ. I keep on giving examples of people not caring about PQ. Fine me some were the average person does.

I never said HDM was doomed only hd-dvd/blu/downloadable. When a better solution comes I will evaluate.

If blu is this generations laser disc I don't see the big deal. LD lasted 20 years had 1000s of titles. Just because something does not become main stream does not mean it can't be a success.

 

[V3]

I would like to hear any reasonable argument that any HDM blu or downloadable will not be the next laser disc a pure enthusist format.

The best I ever see is some sort of combo disc and there is a coexistance with dvd.

Well the average joe wouldn't go out and switch yet, you are right they got no reason too. But I reckon (since the war is pretty much settled) there are alot of non average people that care about PQ/SQ to invest in HD panel and a BR player to go along with it. Beside its affordable to most people. DVD has to content with VHS players which can record, that feature was harder for people to let go and they eventually did, BR should have easier time.

When the BR revenue starts to rise and DVD falls, the studio may delay DVD releases compare to BR. My guess eventually they'll stop DVD production and just produce BR. I don't think they will co-exist. BR will be a replacement format for content delivery, unless BR security is crack, I think this is what will happend. And they are unlikely to consider a replacement format until BR security is crack or they have an even better format to do it with.

 

[Deleted member 7537]

People are not buying HD TV to have SD content put it on it.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

I really want to hear the reason you think the average joe is ever going to go to blu now they have won. I want to hear why you think they average person is going to replace 3+ dvd players in the house the car and other portable units.

It's simple really. It will be a two pronged attack:

1. The studios will stop making DVDs. They want to sell the same thing on a more expensive format, making more money selling the same old IP again. First you will see DVD titles delayed long after their BR versions, and BR versions with "exclusive extras", then you'll see BR-only titles because "a DVD isn't capable of showing the title as intended", etc. Media companies don't want to be making two formats, and retailers don't want to be stacking two formats into limited shelf space.

2. The hardware manufacturers will stop making DVD players. Any company that want to get a slice of the BR pie will need to sign licences, and those licenses will include that they stop making DVD players within a couple of years. Sure, you'll still be able to play your DVDs on BR players, and you'll still be able to play DVD on your old players, but as units fail or get broken, as people want new features and new hardware, they'll be forced to go BR.

Without DVD players on the market (and most major companies are obsoleting their current players every year or so), cheaper BR hardware will arrive and find an empty market for them to slide into at the lower end, making BR players the only buy at the mass market end of the range.

 

[quest55720]

Well the average joe wouldn't go out and switch yet, you are right they got no reason too. But I reckon (since the war is pretty much settled) there are alot of non average people that care about PQ/SQ to invest in HD panel and a BR player to go along with it. Beside its affordable to most people. DVD has to content with VHS players which can record, that feature was harder for people to let go and they eventually did, BR should have easier time.

Sure they recorded with it some people still do. They quit buying movies on it though long before they quit recording. The ability to record was never a hinderance to DVD. The tangeables were to just to great for the average person to go back once they got to VHS. That is why DVD movie sales were so huge people buying back catalogs of movies. Now that people have gotten the older movies they want through black friday or the 5 dollar bin DVD sales have slowed. People just really have new releaes and TV shows to buy.

When the BR revenue starts to rise and DVD falls, the studio may delay DVD releases compare to BR. My guess eventually they'll stop DVD production and just produce BR. I don't think they will co-exist. BR will be a replacement format for content delivery, unless BR security is crack, I think this is what will happend. And they are unlikely to consider a replacement format until BR security is crack or they have an even better format to do it with.

That would only happen if sales plummet to nothing like they did for VHS. The studios were wanting to ditch VHS because of the cost to produce/ship them. DVDs are so cheap to produce sales would have to flat line for them to quit. The studios are not going to turn down any money these days. They are not just going to quit selling DVDs to try and force people over and give up a ton of money.

I think they can co-exsist rather well. The video/audophiles pay a premium for blu and the masses stick to DVD. Just like right now I pay a premium for the HD package from direct TV. I don't think there is any rush by the studios to ditch DVD. The biggest reason they want format switches is for people to buy back catalog titles again. The studios know that the average person will never see enough of a difference to buy their whole collection again in blu. Hell even on the AVS forum most only buy back titles during a bogos or discounted under 10 dollars. If those hardcore people are resistant to back catalog titles imagine the average person.

 

[quest55720]

It's simple really. It will be a two pronged attack:

1. The studios will stop making DVDs. They want to sell the same thing on a more expensive format, making more money selling the same old IP again. First you will see DVD titles delayed long after their BR versions, and BR versions with "exclusive extras", then you'll see BR-only titles because "a DVD isn't capable of showing the title as intended", etc. Media companies don't want to be making two formats, and retailers don't want to be stacking two formats into limited shelf space.

2. The hardware manufacturers will stop making DVD players. Any company that want to get a slice of the BR pie will need to sign licences, and those licenses will include that they stop making DVD players within a couple of years. Sure, you'll still be able to play your DVDs on BR players, and you'll still be able to play DVD on your old players, but as units fail or get broken, as people want new features and new hardware, they'll be forced to go BR.

Without DVD players on the market (and most major companies are obsoleting their current players every year or so), cheaper BR hardware will arrive and find an empty market for them to slide into at the lower end, making BR players the only buy at the mass market end of the range.

Thank you very much I had to think about this for a while.

Part 2 could very well work the issue is how many years it would take to drain out all the DVD players on the market. If they quit making DVD players in 2012 or so I think the CEs will milk margins for a while. You are talking upwards of 10 years to get people to move over all the players in the house after clearing out the retail channels. That assumes that no one company out there says no and has the dvd player market cornered. I think by that time there will be a real successor to DVD one that offers some tangable that will win over the average person. I have no clue what that would be I am not that creative of a person.

Part 1 is not going to happen. Studios are bleeding cash right now they will take any money they can get. It was easy to move off of VHS because of production/shipping costs. It will not be easy to move off of DVD with lower production/shipping costs. Even sales of 10% of the market would keep them producing them.

In the next 5-10 years a new medium will come to take over for DVD. When I first saw CD I knew casette tapes were done. When I first saw DVD I knew VHS was dead. When I see blu/hd-dvd I see a great product but not the DVD killer. I think we will all know it the first we see the product.

 

[Tahir2]

This is a good thing for the industry. Whichever format was to become dominant the, consumer suffers less the shorter this war is.

I just hope that things move quicker for Blu-ray now and we see cheaper players in the near future.

DVD will take a while to die.. much longer than VHS took to lie down and stay down IMHO.

 

[Bouncing Zabaglione Bros.]

Thank you very much I had to think about this for a while.

Part 2 could very well work the issue is how many years it would take to drain out all the DVD players on the market. If they quit making DVD players in 2012 or so I think the CEs will milk margins for a while. You are talking upwards of 10 years to get people to move over all the players in the house after clearing out the retail channels. That assumes that no one company out there says no and has the dvd player market cornered. I think by that time there will be a real successor to DVD one that offers some tangable that will win over the average person. I have no clue what that would be I am not that creative of a person.

Doesn't matter. This is a long term project to use a new round of technology to reboot the profit cycle ie, get people to buy all the same stuff in a newer hardware/software format. It might take 2-5 years to move everyone over, but then the main players expect to make 1-2 decades of profit.

Companies don't care about the hardware you already have - that's money that they've already got. They only care about the money that you are going to spend in your next round of upgrading. When that happens, they want to ensure you buy BR hardware, and that DVD hardware doesn't cannibalise those sales. It creates a new market without competition for hardware makers to come into and lower player prices. It forces BR hardware into everyone's home, whether they use it immediately or not. It provides an instant market in the same way that PS3 owners provided an instant audience for people to buy BR discs for their HDTVs.

Even companies like Pioneer were expected to not make any more mainstream DVD players last year, and the format war meant they had to repackage last year's players into this year's models before they are obsoleted in favour of next-gen HD products. Those plans to obsolete DVD players will continue now.

Part 1 is not going to happen. Studios are bleeding cash right now they will take any money they can get. It was easy to move off of VHS because of production/shipping costs. It will not be easy to move off of DVD with lower production/shipping costs. Even sales of 10% of the market would keep them producing them.

In the next 5-10 years a new medium will come to take over for DVD. When I first saw CD I knew cassette tapes were done. When I first saw DVD I knew VHS was dead. When I see blu/hd-dvd I see a great product but not the DVD killer. I think we will all know it the first we see the product.

Again, the same thing is happening. Studios want BR, and they want to force people onto is as soon as possible. Higher prices, higher profit, stricter DRM, a serious home media centre for digital downloads, the opportunity to sell the same IP to people over and over again and reboot their profit cycle, etc. That's a big carrot and they want it now.

Don't forget, these media companies are in business partnerships with the hardware makers (and in the case of Sony, are even the same company). They see the DVD market as stagnating, and want to move everyone over to the "next big thing" in order to make more money. They'll happily take money from the hardware companies to help pay for support over this forced transition. Sure they'll keep selling DVDs while they can, but they are looking to the future with BR, and that's why companies like Warners have chosen a side and want to get on with it.

Media companies will "encourage" people to next-gen by offering better or exclusivity on HD products, hardware companies will encourage next-gen by obsoleting any non-HD hardware from the market. They will both support each other in this aim, and will work towards it together.

BR may not be a DVD killer on it's own, but with marketing, a big push from both the hardware and media side, (primarily by removing DVD media and hardware from the market over the next five years) it will happen.

While all alternatives dwindle and disappear (much as the format war is doing with Warner's recent move to BR), people will have no choice but to go BR, much as people are looking at the situation now and seeing no alternative to BR as the next gen HD format due completely to what movies you'll be able to buy for it.


Ask yourself this question: Why did DVD work where other formats (like DAT) failed? People understand a silver disc just like their CDs that they stick in a drive and it plays movies. The masses don't see it as a new format, they just see it as a "better CD". It looks the same, it works the same. It's an accepted format, that plays all the "old" formats like music CDs and movie DVDs. It's not some holographic crystal that goes into the top of a pyramid-shaped player from a bad sci-fi movie. By removing the "old", "bad" choices from the market by removing DVD players and media, both hardware and media companies will find it easy to move people onto "newer, better" DVDs for their movies.

Just look at the last few years of the HD TV market to see how easy it's been to con the public into buying new hardware by removing the choice of older products, even though most of what we've been sold until recently hasn't even been full HD spec, let alone with all the advantages of older CRTs (such as good blacks, viewing angles, post-processng artifacts, etc)

 

[SPM]

Ask yourself this question: Why did DVD work where other formats (like DAT) failed?

DAT failed because the recording studios refused to put content on it because of fears of piracy of higher quality music (a manufactured excuse in my opinion because they allowed cassettes to continue). They preferred CD because it was more difficult to copy at the time.

There is a good chance that new media will be put on BD at lower prices for the same reasons. The hardware manufacturers don't like DVD either. The patent royalties per DVD player is $30 or so. When DVD players sell at $50 or so that gives them very little profit margin to play with. Hardware manufacturers are looking at DVD as an extra to put on BD players rather than as a worthwhile product.