Clashman said:
Not only was the difference in space much more apparent and much more needed with CD/DVD than with DVD/Bluray/HDDVD, DVD was much further along in it's development. By the time PS2 hit, there were DVD players in millions of people's homes, thousands of titles were released, and every video store carried them. Everyone knew it was "the next big thing". You could walk out onto the street and ask anyone and they'd know about DVD, and would probably tell you they planned on getting one once the prices dropped a bit. Ask people now about Blueray and you're likely to get a big "huh" out of 95+% of the populace. The mindshare just isn't there to make it an attractive selling point to most of the public.
I agree with Clashman. Also:
1. You cannot compare previous generation storage needs directly; you need to examine the reasons driving the need for more space. FMV and Audio tracks were a big motivator from the 16bit to the 32bit era. This recent generation has seen a need for more high resolution textures and expansive worlds. What will the next generation need? So far they appear to be natural progression of the current needs and not the massive leap needed for FMV and audio tracks.
2. This can be seen in PC games. PC games like HL2, Doom 3, FarCry would all fit onto 1 DVD. These games have large worlds, high resolution textures intended to be run on High Definition display devises (your typically resolution for a gamer is 1024x768 to 1600x1200). These games also are designed to run on systems that have 256MB of video memory for the highest detailed textures and new games like BF2 are requiring 512MB of system memory on top of this. Yet with PCs with such expansive memory configurations we are still seeing games fit on 1 DVD. As next gen games will be using similar resolutions and similar hardware, it follows that they would be inline with PC needs. In this regards, ~8.5GB seems more than adequate.
3. Game art and assets do not come free. This limitation is not technical but financial: It costs money and time to create game content. Exceeding 8.5GB of game data is not economical for 99% of games at this time, and it wont be any time soon with the increasing demand for production quality and game interactivity. While it would be nice to have games that have 25GB of game data, very few studios will be able to fill a standard DVD, let alone an 8.5GB one. Square-Enix and PS (GT5 or 6) may be the exceptions as they tend to push the limitations of their storage. But these studios have more artists than most developers have working on a game and have budgets multifold larger. It just is not realistic to expect many games to exceed 8.5GB. And the few that might can do disc swapping.
4. Xbox 360 laid down the gauntlet with 512MB of memory. Sony and Nintendo really have no choice but to follow. In this regards a 12x DVD drive is a better solution than a 1x BR because a 12x DVD drive is faster than a 1x BR drive. A 12x DVD can transfer about 15.85MB/s (
http://www.osta.org/technology/dvdqa/dvdqa4.htm), while a 1x BR has a data transfer rate of about transfers about 6.75MB/s (
http://www.blu-ray.com/faq/). (Note the BR site uses Mb which is megabits; you can test this by looking at the 36Mbps write rate that takes 93min to fill a 25GB disk, which clearly shows this is a Mb and not a MB... far too many sites use MB and Mb interchably).
To load 512MB of memory we are looking at theoretical fastest transfers of 32 seconds for a 12X DVD drive and 75 seconds for a 1x BR drive. Even a 2x BR will lag behind a 12x DVD in theoretical transfer times. Load times are a big issue with games. We often neglect the little things when comparing systems, but if it takes on average 2x as long to load a game on a system it could be a turn off.
5. The Xbox 360 has a 20GB HDD and there is no doubt in my mind part of that drive will be used to increase transfer rates by using the HDD as a buffer and hold frequently accessed game assets. A 12x DVD + HDD combination is going to be a lot faster than a 1x BR drive.
6. DVD drives are not only cheaper to get, but also available in quantity. Neither BR or HD-DVD is available in high quantities at the moment. Having a shortage of consoles because the HD drives are in short demand would be suicide. Unlike Sony, MS and Nintendo do not make their own drives, not point limiting their consoles by production of a new device that is more expensive.
7. DVD drives are a known quality--they have been around in the mass market for well over 7 years. They are sturdy, reliable, and high quality at cheap prices. I would guess that the quality between a low end BR / HD-DVD drive (like what will be in a console) and an expensive unit will be significant. Bleeding edge technology is not usually something to test on the generally unforgiving general populace.
And then there are all the issues of what standard--BR, HD-DVD, or a Hybred compromise--will be the standard.
Overall, I think Nintendo will be better off with a HDD and a DVD drive than going with a HD format--unless a unified format is agreed upon, and cheap licensing, can be agreed upon very soon. Movie playback is a plus, but as Clashman noted: DVD drives and movies were a known factor when the PS2 arrived. People had them at home and they were renting movies from Blockbuster a couple years before the PS2 came out. My local movie store does not even know what BR is, let alone carry rental units and BR movies.
Sony has every reason to throw a BR drive into their device--market penatration. Good move. But it is too early in the game for MS and Nintendo to take this risk as they have not consumer electronic department with sagging sales.