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Deleted member 13524
Guest
And the reason is no other than Nintendo being realistic..
20 million people purchasing a console to play Mario Odyssey, rehashed Mario Kart 8, Zelda and Splatoon?
I'll believe it when I see it.
Nintendo Switch sales numbers
- Thread starter mpg1
- Start date
I'll believe it when I see it.
Yea, sort of. Nintendo knew they were launching their console in a traditionally slow time of the year, and were certainly a bit more conservative with their expectations. Comparing it to early Wii U sales is misleading, Wii U released during the holiday season, and got about 3.5 million units sold in its first two months. Assuming stock is good, Switch can and will easily outsell that number during its first holiday season. How many units do consoles normally sell during their first twelve months on the market? PS2 sold about 10 million, and Xbox One did similar numbers. PS4 was a rocket soaring to 18 million units, but that has been a run away success and isn't typical. Switch sales are at an excellent pace thus far. The people waiting/hoping for Switch sales to fall flat on its face are likely in for a disappointment. Nintendo has positioned their first party games in such a way that brings high profile titles on a consistent basis, and this will continue into 2018. The increased production only accelerates the reduced cost of production, and should allow Nintendo to reduce the price quicker than expected, assuming they need to. I still believe the long term mass market price is $199, but with current demand Nintendo will not be in a hurry to mark it down anytime soon. Heck, the 3DS lineup still moves a lot of units, and the majority of them are the $199 XL model.
Well get ready, because a mainline Pokémon game releases next year for Switch, and that alone will carry the console well beyond the 20 million sold.
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Deleted member 13524
Guest
Not if the console keeps its $300 price tag and/or if the game gets a 3DS release, IMO.
That is probably accurate, but how many consoles maintain their initial launch price for the duration of its life? Even with Sony killing it with the PS4 they lowered the price significantly over the years to maintain sales. How quickly Nintendo decides to drop the price will be decided by how quickly demand starts to slow down. The current trend supports the argument that sales will remain very strong through the year, and we will see if its sustainable without a price drop in 2018. I am guessing a drop to $249 is likely next year, and its marathon legs will happen when they drop to $199.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
It depends, until supply catches up with demand there is zero reason for Nintendo to reduce the price.
Even at ~380-390 USD (current prices on Amazon) there are enough people wanting to buy it that the price isn't dropping from that. IE - lots of people still willing to pay way above MSRP in order to get one.
Even if supply were to be greatly increased (doubled or more), the holiday shopping season will eat up 100% of the Switches produced, which again means no reason for Nintendo to drop price.
The earliest we might see a price reduction, IMO, will be after holiday months. And that's only if demand drops below supply at that point.
This is what many skeptics and forum warriors expected when the price was revealed.
https://www.gamespot.com/articles/nintendo-switch-projected-to-sell-5-million-units-/1100-6448343/
Oh noes, the price is ridiculously high and no one will buy it. 5 million units for 2017. That report now looks pretty laughable considering it hit over 5 million units by the end of July (5 months) and there's still 6 months which include the all important holiday season. Even more laughable when you consider that for a period of time units were flying off the shelves at 400+ USD for just the base Switch.
Regards,
SB
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
Is there something other than a "base switch"?
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Store based bundles. Like the ones that Gamestop does in order to get as much money out of each Switch sale as possible.
Regards,
SB
Unless you are like me and going all digital on Switch.
tongue_of_colicab
Veteran
Serious question: why would you go all digital? Obviously on PC you got no choice but games usually get cheap quickly and on PC you don't have to worry about compatibility.
On consoles I'm always wary of buying digital because games are more expensive and cannot be sold. That is fine for a 5 ~ 20 PC game but 60 ~ 70 console games? Nah.
That and having a lot more trust in digital games still available and working 10/20 years after release on PC.
On consoles I'm always wary of buying digital because games are more expensive and cannot be sold. That is fine for a 5 ~ 20 PC game but 60 ~ 70 console games? Nah.
That and having a lot more trust in digital games still available and working 10/20 years after release on PC.
Convenience being number one. My carrying case holds about 8 games if I were so inclined, and I will have more games than that by the end of the year. I also have nieces and a nephew that I can let play my Switch without worrying about them damaging the physical media. Not to mention kids like to play every game you own 10 minutes at a time. This was a much bigger concern with disk based media, but a minor thing none the less. I also have so many game cases on display in my man cave that it has gotten excessive. As I have gotten older I can do without the clutter. I not longer worry too much about 10-20 years down the road because Nintendo will always have their legacy software available digitally. I am hopeful that Nintendo tying software purchases to your Nintendo account gives me access to my games on newer hardware down the road. I never sell my games post Gamecube. I made the mistake of selling a bunch of games in anticipation of Wii, and I regretted it. So having physical copies to sell down the road is not a thing for me.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Consider how many games are released on physical media that require day one patches or multiple patches after release to run well. Or patches to fix game breaking bugs. If the digital version is no longer in 10/20 years patches for the console games are likely to not be available either. Not to mention any DLC that might have been released free after release or were purchased.
On console the value proposition isn't as high as it was when PC was transitioning from physical to digital. In most cases for consoles it's about convenience. That will vary on a person to person basis as to whether that is valuable. As well as region to region (data caps, bandwidth, etc.).
Regards,
SB
I am absolutely 100% all digital on Xbox One and PC ecosystems. However I would never ever go all Digital in the Nintendo Switch ecosystem because of all the grief they gave people in the past -- having licenses tied to physical hardware, so when it was replaced the users lost their games.
yup it's still way to early to tell how the switch will do, while it's a lock it will do good in japan (12-20 million) The US and europe is way to early to tell, 1.5 million (npd) in 4 months with nintendo biggest franchises available at launch, doesn't really paint a picture to me that it will be a huge hit in those markets, and its still easy to find, i can buy one at at ebay right now for 334 only 10$ over retail , and 20$ to ship, or can go to gamestop and buy a bundle, only talking about online.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Nintendo-Sw...334440?hash=item1c8d37e368:g:m14AAOSwHEZZeqAr
seven switches this has been up for 3 days.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
Ebay is an interesting ecosystem to look at. The volume there is far lower than Amazon, but it does offer some interesting insight.
For example the link you provided is from a seller with relatively few purchase feedback (214 feedback left, 97.7% positive). People hesitate to buy from users without a long history, so they need to sell product at lower prices than their competitors and even then they may not sell as many. That one has thus far sold 2 with 5 still available.
If we look at other ones.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/SEALED-Nint...787967&hash=item25d7cf1879:g:ocEAAOSwhvFZHftU
378.80 USD. 15 sold in the past 24 hours. That seller has a substantial feedback history (4049 feedbacks at 100% positive). People are willing to pay more on Ebay for what they view as a reliable seller.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Nintendo-Sw...787967&hash=item33d329849e:g:zzAAAOSwjvJZUU-L
384.99 USD. 26 sold in the past 24 hours. That sellers doesn't have as much of a feedback history (648) but at least has 100% positive ratings from a decent pool of purchasers.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/NEW-Nintend...876898&hash=item2382a7376a:g:-OEAAOSw3ZRY9mTx
That's a good one for low price and high reputation. 211 sold. 359.80 USD.
Here's the point. Every single one is still quite a bit above MSRP.
Even on E-bay people are willing to pay up to 380+ USD in order to obtain a Nintendo Switch that has a retail MSRP of 299 USD.
That shows that demand is very high. Also, note that while you mention that the Switch is doing well in Japan, you fail to mention that the Switch is selling double that in NA and almost double that in Europe. Using data to be taken with a grain of salt from VGChartz (51,468 NA, 43,478 Europe, 24,821 Japan for the week of June 03, 2017)
Using your predictive numbers for Japan (12-20 million, I don't know what you base those off of) that would mean that it would be ~60-100 million for Japan, Europe and NA. WW it would be higher as that doesn't account for ROTW (rest of the world). Or in other words far more than either the PS3 or X360. If you think the Switch is going to do badly, you might want to revise your guess for Japan.
Regards,
SB
Ebay is an interesting ecosystem to look at. The volume there is far lower than Amazon, but it does offer some interesting insight.
For example the link you provided is from a seller with relatively few purchase feedback (214 feedback left, 97.7% positive). People hesitate to buy from users without a long history, so they need to sell product at lower prices than their competitors and even then they may not sell as many. That one has thus far sold 2 with 5 still available.
If we look at other ones.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/SEALED-Nint...787967&hash=item25d7cf1879:g:ocEAAOSwhvFZHftU
378.80 USD. 15 sold in the past 24 hours. That seller has a substantial feedback history (4049 feedbacks at 100% positive). People are willing to pay more on Ebay for what they view as a reliable seller.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Nintendo-Sw...787967&hash=item33d329849e:g:zzAAAOSwjvJZUU-L
384.99 USD. 26 sold in the past 24 hours. That sellers doesn't have as much of a feedback history (648) but at least has 100% positive ratings from a decent pool of purchasers.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/NEW-Nintend...876898&hash=item2382a7376a:g:-OEAAOSw3ZRY9mTx
That's a good one for low price and high reputation. 211 sold. 359.80 USD.
Here's the point. Every single one is still quite a bit above MSRP.
Even on E-bay people are willing to pay up to 380+ USD in order to obtain a Nintendo Switch that has a retail MSRP of 299 USD.
That shows that demand is very high. Also, note that while you mention that the Switch is doing well in Japan, you fail to mention that the Switch is selling double that in NA and almost double that in Europe. Using data to be taken with a grain of salt from VGChartz (51,468 NA, 43,478 Europe, 24,821 Japan for the week of June 03, 2017)
Using your predictive numbers for Japan (12-20 million, I don't know what you base those off of) that would mean that it would be ~60-100 million for Japan, Europe and NA. WW it would be higher as that doesn't account for ROTW (rest of the world). Or in other words far more than either the PS3 or X360. If you think the Switch is going to do badly, you might want to revise your guess for Japan.
Regards,
SB
Most are selling for 10-20$ over retail now when you include the 20$ shipping, just look at sold listings. We have NPD numbers, as of last NPD switch has only sold 1.5 million in the usa, japan is 1 million, at the same time frame but the demand in japan is much higher. 3ds in japan has sold 2 million more then north America
Ebay is an interesting ecosystem to look at. The volume there is far lower than Amazon, but it does offer some interesting insight.
For example the link you provided is from a seller with relatively few purchase feedback (214 feedback left, 97.7% positive). People hesitate to buy from users without a long history, so they need to sell product at lower prices than their competitors and even then they may not sell as many. That one has thus far sold 2 with 5 still available.
If we look at other ones.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/SEALED-Nint...787967&hash=item25d7cf1879:g:ocEAAOSwhvFZHftU
378.80 USD. 15 sold in the past 24 hours. That seller has a substantial feedback history (4049 feedbacks at 100% positive). People are willing to pay more on Ebay for what they view as a reliable seller.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Nintendo-Sw...787967&hash=item33d329849e:g:zzAAAOSwjvJZUU-L
384.99 USD. 26 sold in the past 24 hours. That sellers doesn't have as much of a feedback history (648) but at least has 100% positive ratings from a decent pool of purchasers.
http://www.ebay.com/itm/NEW-Nintend...876898&hash=item2382a7376a:g:-OEAAOSw3ZRY9mTx
That's a good one for low price and high reputation. 211 sold. 359.80 USD.
Here's the point. Every single one is still quite a bit above MSRP.
Even on E-bay people are willing to pay up to 380+ USD in order to obtain a Nintendo Switch that has a retail MSRP of 299 USD.
That shows that demand is very high. Also, note that while you mention that the Switch is doing well in Japan, you fail to mention that the Switch is selling double that in NA and almost double that in Europe. Using data to be taken with a grain of salt from VGChartz (51,468 NA, 43,478 Europe, 24,821 Japan for the week of June 03, 2017)
Using your predictive numbers for Japan (12-20 million, I don't know what you base those off of) that would mean that it would be ~60-100 million for Japan, Europe and NA. WW it would be higher as that doesn't account for ROTW (rest of the world). Or in other words far more than either the PS3 or X360. If you think the Switch is going to do badly, you might want to revise your guess for Japan.
Regards,
SB
I checked your links. The one that has 26 sold in the last 24 hours, is actually more like a month, and switch is 324 plus tax at retail ebay charges no tax, say 15-20$ shipping, gamespot charges 16$, so buyer is only paying 20$ over retail, if they want it shipped to there homes.
Silent_Buddha
Legend
I just showed you multiple links where the higher priced Switches on Ebay are selling in FAR larger numbers than the low quantity lower priced ones on Ebay.
Incorrect, those are in the past 24 hours except for the last one and the Ebay listings are constantly updated to reflect that.
Looking again at those exact same links. In the same order.
- 8 in the past 24 hours - was 15 when I did the previous post. 189 sold since the listing was put up.
- 27 in the past 24 hours - was 26 when I did the previous post. 27 sold since the listing was put up.
- 6 in the past 24 hours - was 0 sold in the past 24 hours in the previous post (211 since the Ebay listing was put up). Now shows 217 sold since the listing was put up. 211 + 6 = 217.
The one you linked for 334.98 USD? 2 total sold. The listing has ended because it sold all 2 of the units available in the listing.
Regards,
SB
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did click on the on the 27 sold, its not 24 hours, its like in a 12 day span, here is the link http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBidsLogin&item=222586045598&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2564
and the listing for 334.98 had 7 total only 2 were sold
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Nintendo-Switch-32GB-Gray-Console-with-Gray-Joy-Con-brand-new-fast-2-dayship-/122628334440?hash=item1c8d37e368:g:m14AAOSwHEZZeqAr&nma=true&si=HugEZwKTOfon4FrpYlUnWjgg%2Bg0%3D&orig_cvip=true&rt=nc&_trksid=p2047675.l2557 Just scroll down.
Here are the links, now who is spreading misinformation?
People need to calm down, stop accusing each other of 'spreading misinformation', and look more closely at the discrepancies to come to a rational interpretation.
n sold in an hour.
27 sold, no timeframe.
No timeframe.
So you're both right, and wrong, because mistakes happen, info gets overlooked, and things are often more complex than a cursory glance reveals. Neither is 'spreading misinformation' and the accusations don't belong here. By sharing information on which you each find, a better understanding is gleaned.
n sold in an hour.
27 sold, no timeframe.
No timeframe.
Yes, looks like Silent_Buddha missed the timeframe. But his other examples are correct.
Looks to me like it was listed in the wrong place, Video Game Accessories > cables and accessories.
So you're both right, and wrong, because mistakes happen, info gets overlooked, and things are often more complex than a cursory glance reveals. Neither is 'spreading misinformation' and the accusations don't belong here. By sharing information on which you each find, a better understanding is gleaned.
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