Nintendo Plans to Sell 35 Million Wii Consoles in U.S. by 2012

[Arwin]

This recent interview with Loco Roco's creator is interesting in this discussion:

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=25196

If he's right, and this way of working that has been discussed a lot already on our forums will actually work in the current generation of consoles and eyetoys, then this is technology that the 360 and PS3 should be able to use both and should be very interesting.

In that respect, a motion sensing add on, like something you can clip to your wrist or wear on your hand, could be an interesting add-on for the sixaxis that doesn't require you to purchase a completely new controller, and you don't need for games that don't support rumble. I think that could be a good solution to this problem, and it would be very compatible with the eyetoy like solutions to motion control.

 

[Natoma]

But like I see, it's the software that holds peripherals back IMO, and not the nature of it being an optional extra.

Isn't that the catch-22 however? What developer is going to assign massive resources for an optional extra?

Your Halo 3 point is a good one, but Guitar Hero had the same profile and you don't see people playing games with their Guitars. Now obviously a guitar shaped controller limits what you can do, but the point is still a valid one imo. Unless the uptake rate of Halo 3 is very high with the 360 installbase, 50%+ I'm thinking, AND Microsoft goes full bore with their inhouse titles (how many do they have though? not many) and developing with the new controller, I don't see that idea succeeding.

That's a lot of ifs though. And it would be the first time in videogaming history that that kind of shift occurred midstream in a console's life.

[EDIT]
I just checked lifetime worldwide sales of Halo and Halo 2. They are 6.43m and 7.89m respectively. Considering the Xbox sold 24.6m worldwide, that's roughly 25%-32% of that console base buying the game. Let's say it jumps to 40% for Halo 3, you're still with a minority of gamers who have the new controller.

 

[Npl]

Wii is rising up fast in my "List of successes I`ll never understand"
Top Occupants still to beat:
*McDonalds
*Tamagotchi
*Tetris

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Wii is rising up fast in my "List of successes I`ll never understand"
Top Occupants still to beat:
*McDonalds
*Tamagotchi
*Tetris

Nah you should think a bit harder

Mcdonalds? easy and fast, even though it tasted horrible you once in a while need a quick bite.
Tamagotchi? dude, these things kick ass! I had one in grade school when I was eleven and it rocked. Raising your monster and not having to bother if it dies or not.
Tetris? well its an easy way to spend some time.

 

[scooby_dooby]

In order to hit those numbers by 2011, Nintendo will have to average 581k Wii's sold per month for the next 4 1/2 years.

Actually, if you count Nov/Dec, which are typically 6 months worth of sales, you could say that each year has 16months worth of sales.

Wii would only need to average 435k/month in non-holiday months, which would double in Nov, and quadruple in Dec. To aim for 2012, they would need to average 365k/month during the offseason.

It does seem pretty insane to think Wii could sell 1.5-2 million units in Dec, for 4 years running though. There's no way...

 

[NERO]

I feel Nintendo can reach this sales goal as long as they improve Wii production. The thing is selling out at a relatively high price point, so imagine 150USD slim Wiis that eventually come out. The only thing I'm curious about is how long Nintendo will wait for the next generation console. Targeting until the year 2012 might work, but if you think the Wii seems dated now, imagine in 5 years from now? I am sticking with my theory that the Wii is going to be perceived as a toy for everyone as opposed to a "videogame system" (an intimidating term for some) and sell to both gamers (as the peripheral fun w/friends system to complement the other consoles) and non-gamers (as a toy).

 

[cthellis42]

Provide a new controller with Halo3, with Halo3 requiring it. Straight away 50+ of the XB360 install base has the new controller.

You think Halo 3 is only going to sell to FIFTY or so people?


(Sorry, it made me giggle. Had to be done.)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Isn't that the catch-22 however? What developer is going to assign massive resources for an optional extra?

Sony! Third largest game developer in the world, remember. How many Wii-specific motion-controlled titles has Nintendo produced? There's Wii sports and Wario, for example. Other major releases from Nintendo haven't been Wiimote dependent, like Zelda and Paper Mario. Sony's just as capable of that much perihperal specific output for PSI (PlayStation Eye ) if they really want to push it - a new quality title every couple of months, ranging from EOJ to simple party games. And once they get the peripheral being bought up, 3rd parties will consider it too.

It might never happen, especially if the motion-control fans are turned off by a $600 price tag! But in theory I'd say the right peripheral with the right backing could gain mainstream adoption and proper 3rd party support, even though it hasn't happened in the past.

 

[scooby_dooby]

You think Halo 3 is only going to sell to FIFTY or so people?


(Sorry, it made me giggle. Had to be done.)

50%

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You think Halo 3 is only going to sell to FIFTY or so people?

50+ people. Don't underestimate the importance of that plus sign. I'm open to the possibilty of even more customers than fifty (even though some might say that's being over-optimistic)!

 

[cthellis42]

Oh, right. My bad.

 

[Teasy]

Sony! Third largest game developer in the world, remember. How many Wii-specific motion-controlled titles has Nintendo produced? There's Wii sports and Wario, for example. Other major releases from Nintendo haven't been Wiimote dependent, like Zelda and Paper Mario. Sony's just as capable of that much perihperal specific output for PSI (PlayStation Eye ) if they really want to push it - a new quality title every couple of months, ranging from EOJ to simple party games. And once they get the peripheral being bought up, 3rd parties will consider it too.

It might never happen, especially if the motion-control fans are turned off by a $600 price tag! But in theory I'd say the right peripheral with the right backing could gain mainstream adoption and proper 3rd party support, even though it hasn't happened in the past.

Just not going to happen though. With an addon developer support will always be limited, its a fact of the gaming industry. Wii specific motion controlled Nintendo games?, I can think of 5 at the moment:

Excite Truck
Wii Play
Wii Sports
WarioWare
Mario Strikers

 

[Cheezdoodles]

50+ people. Don't underestimate the importance of that plus sign. I'm open to the possibilty of even more customers than fifty (even though some might say that's being over-optimistic)!

My calculations show 52.5 people will buy it.