Nintendo Plans to Sell 35 Million Wii Consoles in U.S. by 2012

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=aL9z9P81ssuk&refer=japan

Nintendo Co. expects to sell as many as 35 million Wii video-game consoles in the U.S., close to the record 38.2 million PlayStation 2 players sold by Sony Corp.

The company will reach its goal by 2011 or 2012, George Harrison, marketing chief at Nintendo of America Inc., a unit of Kyoto-based Nintendo Co., said in an interview today.

Nintendo is increasing Wii production at factories in China to meet demand, Harrison said from Seattle. The company has sold 2.5 million Wii players in the U.S. since the console was introduced in November, making it the top-seller among the newest generation of machines.

``Demand is much greater than we anticipated,'' Harrison said. ``A year ago no one thought we would be in this position.''
In order to hit those numbers by 2011, Nintendo will have to average 581k Wii's sold per month for the next 4 1/2 years. If 2012, then they'll have to average 487k Wii's. Nintendo is notorious for lowballing their expectations, but I have to admit that I'm not really sure they can pull that off. They can't even produce DS's at those numbers for US consumption, and they're thinking about getting Wii up to that?

Then again, Sony pulled it off. But still. That's going to take some serious manufacturing upgrades to come within striking distance of that goal.
 
Thats a very impressive turnaround for Nintendo considering they sold ~20 million GameCube's world wide last generation! They definitely have the demand and if they can overcome the supply issues I really do not see any reason to doubt their claim.
 
I can see it, if by this holiday season they can get another ramp in production I honestly would not be shocked to see several 1+ million months in a row.
 
Well this makes sense now: http://www.nintendojo.com/infocus/view_item.php?1179884509

Harrison announced Nintendo's five year projection for Wii in an interview today while also declaring that Wii plants in China are ready to increase their production to meet the continued increased demand for the console. "Demand is much greater than we anticipated," said Harrison. "A year ago no one thought we would be in this position."
Nintendo just increased production from their plants in China. I wonder how long it'll take for that increase production to show up in monthly sales, if it hasn't shown up already that is (April NPD).
 
They better learn to shut up and just execute. A lot of flack sony got lately is due to their PR in my opinion, Nintendo should understand that and go low profile for now.
 
I have a very hard time seeing Wii's still selling 2 years from now.

Their price advantage will have totally disappeared to a >$200 Xbox360, and to a lesser extent, a cheaper PS3 as well.

Not to mention the 360/PS3 software library is going to make the Wii library look more and more dated with each new release.


Anyway, hopefully what is going to happens is all of these "new" gamers who are just jumping into gaming for the first time this generation with the Wii. Will start craving a richer more HD experience. The Wii phenomena could seriously boost the mid to tail end of the HD console's life cycle thanks to Wii's role as a gateway drug.

They might be dabbling in Wii for now, but trust me, they will be shooting up 360 and snorting PS3 in less than 5 years.
 
I have a very hard time seeing Wii's still selling 2 years from now.

Their price advantage will have totally disappeared to a >$200 Xbox360, and to a lesser extent, a cheaper PS3 as well.

Not to mention the 360/PS3 software library is going to make the Wii library look more and more dated with each new release.


Anyway, hopefully what is going to happens is all of these "new" gamers who are just jumping into gaming for the first time this generation with the Wii. Will start craving a richer more HD experience. The Wii phenomena could seriously boost the mid to tail end of the HD console's life cycle thanks to Wii's role as a gateway drug.

They might be dabbling in Wii for now, but trust me, they will be shooting up 360 and snorting PS3 in less than 5 years.

That makes a lot of sense. Right now, the Wii is obviously on a graphical equal footing with the 360/PS3, but as soon as HD adoption rate picks up and once devs really start producing good-looking stuff on the 360 and PS3 (as opposed to the current "meh"-looking games like Resistance or Gears of War), then Wii will not stand the test of time (just like the PSP really started flowing past the DS once people came back from N64-looking non-games). Also, the Wii will be $250 forever, while the PS3 and 360 will quickly drop in price (MS would never be as stupid as to announce a more expensive SKU, for example). Oh, and waggle is a gimmick, Wii will only get mini-games and non-games while big production value franchises will stay exclusive to PS3/360, Bluray will drive PS3 sales through the roof, and Pokemon is just a fad. Nintendo will probably go third party as well. :rolleyes:
 
I have a very hard time seeing Wii's still selling 2 years from now.

Their price advantage will have totally disappeared to a >$200 Xbox360, and to a lesser extent, a cheaper PS3 as well.

Not to mention the 360/PS3 software library is going to make the Wii library look more and more dated with each new release.


Anyway, hopefully what is going to happens is all of these "new" gamers who are just jumping into gaming for the first time this generation with the Wii. Will start craving a richer more HD experience. The Wii phenomena could seriously boost the mid to tail end of the HD console's life cycle thanks to Wii's role as a gateway drug.

They might be dabbling in Wii for now, but trust me, they will be shooting up 360 and snorting PS3 in less than 5 years.

I somewhat disagree with you. You seem to base your ideas on what you assume is a fact that people only want better gfx. The wii games will look dated as far as gfx go, but OTOH the Wii has the ability to make the way you play your x360 and ps3 games outdated. Also better hardware doesnt mean that much looking at console history. Though the differance between Wii and x360/ps3 is alot bigger. OTOH we're also at a point were better hardware starts adding less and less to a game that it used to do.

I also think there is a reason why all those ''non'' gamers never played a game, probably because they didnt like how gaming was. Now im sure a part of them will get more into ''real'' games but the majority wont be botherd by MGS or FF I think.

I dont think one is better than the other. I've also been a pc gamer untill recently (my pc cant keep up with modern games anymore, and im to poor to buy a new one) and always focussed on gfx though I really cant be bother by it as much as I used to. I got a Wii and im not botherd by the gfx. Sure, it would be nice to see a bit better looking gfx as some things just bother you that didnt have to even with Wii hardware. I also played x360 and ps3 and while it looks awsome, its really not that much fun. Great gfx dont make a great game, I'd rather play something wich is just fun to play that I play something just for looking at great gfx. Ofcourse that doesnt mean ps3/x360 cant offer both but I get the idea that alot more time is spend on making games look great for those platforms and way to little on actually making a game that is fun as it seems people judge the game on gfx on not on actually the enjoyment of playing it.
 
If MS were to release a Wii-competing controller for the 360, they could take some of the ground from under Nintendo. They've had the technology and similar controllers up and running in their labs for years now, and I can't understand for the life of me why they're not following this route.

A $200 Core bundle would be the ideal delivery package.
 
If MS were to release a Wii-competing controller for the 360, they could take some of the ground from under Nintendo. They've had the technology and similar controllers up and running in their labs for years now, and I can't understand for the life of me why they're not following this route.

A $200 Core bundle would be the ideal delivery package.

And split their base? Yea right, that's been successful historically. ;)
 
Because, for a wiimote-like to be successful, you need to have ALL games built with that controller in mind ?
Not true asWii demonstrates (and DS with it's pointer). The Wiimote controlled games are the 'hook' that makes the sale, but other games (like Paper Mario) aren't dependent on Wiimote specific implementation to sell. You would just need enough of the motion-specific control games to attract the intial audience. Only one or two (EyeToy's problem) and the peripheral hasn't enough momentum to carry itself forward and get 3rd party development. MS would also have a large mindshare disadvantage. Just like when people talk about MP3 players, they think in terms of iPod, when talking about motion control games, it'll be Wii that is the centre of all the talking. 'Wii's so much fun. I'm having a blast on my Wii. My kids got a Nintendo Wii console and we've all been playing it.' The whole idea is more 'Wii' than 'motion control' and the market is conditioned to associate 'Wii' with 'fun' rather than 'generic motion control' with 'fun'. Even offering the same fun control scheme, it'll be an uphill struggle to get the public to accept it as Wii's equal - in much the same way XB had an uphill struggle competing with PS2 as the console of last gen in terms of mindshare.
 
And split their base? Yea right, that's been successful historically. ;)

Kind of like how Eyetoy and Singstar have destroyed the PS2? And the Dual Shock killed the PS1, allowing the Saturn to dominate the "32-bit" generation? And how the "classic pad" for Wii has caused it to be stillborn and be crushed beneath the might of the PS3? ;)

The likes of the 32X and M-CD shouldn't be compared to controllers that add specific functionality. You could possibly even combine full 360 pad functionality into a split, dual controller setup - it wouldn't be difficult, it'd just be a matter of seeing if people accepted it.

Even Live Arcade games and souped up Wii ports could easily justify a couple of cheap wireless controller. The Wii is attracting a lot of people who don't particularly care about Nintendo, they just like the fun it offers. There's no reason the 360 couldn't reach out to some of the same kind of people whilst also offering ... well, being a 360 to boot.

This isn't about beating Nintendo outright (because I know someone will pop up and say"Ru saYing that MS caN celL more than wii! lol." if I don't clarify this), it's about there being a low risky oportunity to reach out to new customers, a way to sell profitiable controllers and cheap to develop games, a movement in the games industry to join in with, and a way to add to the 360s repertoire of entertainment modes.

Make the 360 a party machine too, to compliment its online gaming, Live arcade, DVD playing, and movie downloading. It's an entertainment device, so add an extra way to entertain people. You don't need to stake the platform on it, and you'd almost certainly make some money on it.
 
Because, for a wiimote-like to be successful, you need to have ALL games built with that controller in mind ?

As Shifty has pointed out, this quite simply doesn't need to be the case.

A lot of people are using the Wii's virtual console - it's very successful. Those games aren't built with the controller in mind. People enjoying the GC's back catalog on their Wii, again, are using the system as it was intended and aren't using the Wiimote.

Furthermore, not even all Wii games use all the Wii controller setup - that second, expensive, add on part doesn't get used in some games. It doesn't even get used in some parts of some games.

You sell the hardware based on a few games, or the promise of an experience. Once you've delivered that, you're free to do whatever you want with the hardware.
 
Kind of like how Eyetoy and Singstar have destroyed the PS2? And the Dual Shock killed the PS1, allowing the Saturn to dominate the "32-bit" generation? And how the "classic pad" for Wii has caused it to be stillborn and be crushed beneath the might of the PS3? ;)

I never said peripherals and fragmentation kill a console. There is a point to be made that peripherals and non-default control schemes don't catch on beyond a few titles.

Has the EyeToy been successful outside of a couple of titles? What about Singstar? Hell, even the Guitar from Guitar Hero series. What about the myriad Light Guns that have been released? FX Chip games? Even the Dual Shock didn't become the dominant controller until PS2, at which point it was the default out of the box controller.

The classic pad for Wii was designed with a specific purpose, i.e. to play old VC games. It hasn't been pushed as the default control scheme, nor was it intended for that purpose. People can still play their VC games with the Wii-mote just fine. But trying to play a Wii-mote designed game on a regular controller just doesn't work out that well. See the reviews for Rayman Raving Rabbids on 360 and PS3 as an example.

Even if MS were to release a 360-mote, it wouldn't be a widespread success until they made it the default control scheme. What then though? Alienate their existing base of users? No, they'll wait until the next generation to do so if they go that route.

The likes of the 32X and M-CD shouldn't be compared to controllers that add specific functionality. You could possibly even combine full 360 pad functionality into a split, dual controller setup - it wouldn't be difficult, it'd just be a matter of seeing if people accepted it.

The elegance of the Wii-mote is that it strips the controller down to only the essentials, and translates the rest to motion control. And you're suggesting that the 360 pad add more buttons? If so you're missing the point of one of the reasons why the Wii has been so successful to date.

Even Live Arcade games and souped up Wii ports could easily justify a couple of cheap wireless controller. The Wii is attracting a lot of people who don't particularly care about Nintendo, they just like the fun it offers. There's no reason the 360 couldn't reach out to some of the same kind of people whilst also offering ... well, being a 360 to boot.

And you think that the mass market will buy into that? As I said before, Guitar Hero has been a smashing success. But how many games are designed around the guitar? Same with the Eyetoy. How many games have been designed around that functionality beyond one-offs and whatnot?

This isn't about beating Nintendo outright (because I know someone will pop up and say"Ru saYing that MS caN celL more than wii! lol." if I don't clarify this), it's about there being a low risky oportunity to reach out to new customers, a way to sell profitiable controllers and cheap to develop games, a movement in the games industry to join in with, and a way to add to the 360s repertoire of entertainment modes.

Make the 360 a party machine too, to compliment its online gaming, Live arcade, DVD playing, and movie downloading. It's an entertainment device, so add an extra way to entertain people. You don't need to stake the platform on it, and you'd almost certainly make some money on it.

1) The 360 is too expensive to do what you're looking for.
2) The 360 isn't associated with the kind of market you're talking about.
3) The 360's control scheme, unless radically altered, will still be the same pad it is today. The same pad that hasn't captured the imagination of the gaming public at large.

Answer me this. If the public sees the Wii as the uber fun machine, and MS tries to catch onto that with a cut down minimized version of that, why would anyone buy the more expensive MS version rather than the full Wii version where all games are designed around the "uber fun"?

That's something Nintendo learned with the Gamecube generation. They tried to compete with the PS2 on graphics, but because the PS1 had established the PS brand as the place to be for cutting edge graphics and killer 3rd party titles, they had no shot. This was borne out in the sales last gen. So Nintendo had to differentiate themselves from Sony and MS this time around.

If MS and Sony try to out-nintendo Nintendo, they would still get their arses handed to them this gen.

They need to stick with their strengths and lower their price. Price, not motion control or uber graphics, has defined this generation more than anything else. Until MS and Sony drop their prices, nothing they do will stop the Nintendo juggernaut.
 
As Shifty has pointed out, this quite simply doesn't need to be the case.

A lot of people are using the Wii's virtual console - it's very successful. Those games aren't built with the controller in mind. People enjoying the GC's back catalog on their Wii, again, are using the system as it was intended and aren't using the Wiimote.

1) No one buys the Wii to play VC games exclusively. Those are a nice bonus with the system. That is understood at purchase.

2) Nintendo added GC ports to the Wii to allow their GC base to play their old games with their already purchased controllers. That was built into the Wii's plan from the start.

These points aren't really relevant to the basic premise of the Wii imo, which remains at its base motion control. At the base of the 360 and PS3 is HD graphics.

Furthermore, not even all Wii games use all the Wii controller setup - that second, expensive, add on part doesn't get used in some games. It doesn't even get used in some parts of some games.

I assume you're talking about the Nunchuk. You know that comes with the Wii by default, whether or not it is used in every game.

That's like saying that the shoulder buttons on the SNES controller wasn't used in every game when it launched. It's still there, so whether its used or not, your developers can target it as they choose because they know 100% of users will have that functionality.

You sell the hardware based on a few games, or the promise of an experience. Once you've delivered that, you're free to do whatever you want with the hardware.

If that were the case then controller peripherals (light guns, dance pads, eyetoy, etc) and even addons like the 32x, Sega CD, Turbo-CD, N64 DD, Gamecube Broadband Adapter, etc would've dominated the marketplace.

Instead, what has been proven time and time again over the past 20 years of the modern gaming era is that what comes out of the box with a system is what is widely supported, and nothing more.
 
Even if MS were to release a 360-mote, it wouldn't be a widespread success until they made it the default control scheme.
though that's the norm, I think there's possibilities to overturn what has been the historical standard. eg. Provide a new controller with Halo3, with Halo3 requiring it. Straight away 50+ of the XB360 install base has the new controller. Provide a whole load of Arcade titles using this fancy controller, and offer a cheap packin with extras. If the software is there to make people want the controller, they'll get it. If the software isn't there, having it as the default will sell the controller, but then what's the point of it without the software?!

In a hypothetical situation where XB360 is the same price of Wii and has the same controller as an option with suitable software support, where only people interested in motion control will get a Wii, both those interested in motion control and normal control will conisder a 360. The only reason that'll fail is if the software isn't there, and it's always the follow-up software support to peripherals that stops them becoming common place. If MS were to release a 36DMote I expect it to flop because I don't imagine they'd get the rush of quality titles with appeal that it'd warrant.

It'll be interesting how PlayStation Eye does this time around in terms of adoption as Sony seem to have a lot of varied titles in development, unlike EyeToy which perhaps was just a beta-test of the concept. Along with the possibility of download titles to offer cheap party-games, the mainstay of Wii's motion control games at the moment, it probably has the best chance to date of being a widely adopted peripheral. If it gets the varied titles and still doesn't get widely adopted among the PS3 user base, then there'd be real reason to say peripherals don't get adopted. But like I see, it's the software that holds peripherals back IMO, and not the nature of it being an optional extra.
 
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